The East Asian model of economic development

Unlike existing models of the rapid growth of the East Asian economies that are based on stylised facts, this paper formulates a model by introducing an all‐encompassing (core) variable that explains the unique path to success in East Asia. Using three propositions, the model explains the transition from a backward economy to an industrial economy. Central to the model is policy‐augmented human capital (PAHC)—human capital with a road map for development—led by a capable leader. The model is unique in that it validates the critical role of human capital in a time of ‘high development theory’ when the emphasis was skewed towards the accumulation of physical capital, and the role of government at a time when interventionist policies were either failing elsewhere (in the 1950s and 1960s) or facing opposition (in the 1970s and 1980s). The success of the East Asian model provides evidence pointing to a preference for economic development over democracy.     

How Not to Industrialise? Indonesia's Automotive Industry

This paper examines the development of the Indonesian automotive industry since 1970. After giving an overview of trends and a comparative East Asian assessment, we investigate ownership patterns, the political economy of intervention and key structural features of the industry. Output grew rapidly in the three decades to 1997; there was a significant increase in technological capacity; and some firms in the components and commercial vehicle sectors were approaching international efficiency. However, the highly interventionist policy regime has resulted in an inefficient industry characterised by “back-to-front” industrialisation, uneconomic production runs and minuscule exports. The industry's fundamental weaknesses were exposed by the crisis of 1997–99. Looking beyond the current difficulties, the future challenge will be to develop a globally efficient and integrated industry.     

Food Price Policy in East Asia

The primary objective of this survey is to examine the extent to which the available empirical literature suggests that economies of East Asia are following the policy trend of earlier industrialising economies in gradually changing from taxing to assisting food producers in the course of their economic development. More specifically, the survey attempts (a) to summarise the trends in agricultural incentives in East Asia; (b) to examine briefly the literature on motivations for those policy trends; and (c) to mention some of the future trade and policy implications.     

Development and the Environment in Asia

Economic growth and environmental damage are associated, but the relationship is neither linear nor even monotonic. This is clearly seen in the diverse experiences of tropical Asian economies over recent decades. The nature of the growth–environment link depends on the changing composition of production and on growth-related changes in techniques and environmental policies; the enforcement of property rights over natural resources and over air and water quality is another important element. Moreover, environmental and economic policies interact: in effect, every economic policy that affects resource allocation is a de facto environmental measure. One important implication is that the environmental consequences of major policy shifts, such as the 'globalisation' of many tropical Asian economies since about 1980, have been profound. The analytical literature on growth and the environment in Asia tends to agree that environmental damage is costly to regional economies, and has begun to identify and quantify some of the many causal linkages now recognised between economic development and the valuation and use of environmental and natural resource assets.     

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.     

A Survey of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Asia

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the transmission of exchange-rate changes into import (export) prices of goods in the destination-market currency as well as into aggregate domestic prices. This paper examines the analytical and empirical literature on ERPT with particular reference to Asia. It is generally believed that Asian economies are potentially susceptible to ERPT into domestic inflation since they are highly trade-dependent. Particular attention is paid to production sharing—a key characteristic of Asian trade—and its implications for ERPT.     

中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力分析——基于BOP和FATS统计的分析

本文选择了中国等18个经济体,对跨境交付和商业存在两种模式下中国金融服务贸易的国际竞争力进行了比较分析,主要结论是:1.关于跨境交付的金融服务贸易,中国的竞争力非常差,处于18个经济体的最后一名;2.关于商业存在模式下的金融服务贸易,不论是与东亚经济体相比,还是与"金砖四国"的其他成员相比,中国的金融业都具备了较强的竞争力,但与发达经济体相比,还存在不小差距。最后,根据实证分析的结论,提出了提升中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的对策。     

Inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission in Vietnam and emerging Asia

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.     

Middle‐income countries: trapped or merely slowing?

Since the turn of the century, growth has slowed in a number of middle income economies, giving rise to fears ‐ exacerbated by the financial crisis of 2008‐09 ‐ that they were entering a low growth equilibrium. A survey of the literature on the middle income trap suggests that it is difficult to rigorously identify countries that might be trapped; that in most cases growth appears to be regressing to a longer term normal and in East Asian economies remains at a respectable 5 percent to 7 per cent rate; that the research on the trap has yet to come up with a new growth model for middle income economies; and that policy recommendations on offer are of the generic variety applicable to virtually all economies, developed and developing.     

Regional determinants of life insurance consumption: evidence from selected Asian economies

The life insurance industry in developing Asian economies is under‐developed compared with global standards. The low market penetration is attributed to full or partial government ownership and entry restrictions on foreign insurers. Regulatory changes and adoption of liberal policies have aided the growth of the life insurance industry in the past decade. At the same time, economic and social factors were expected to promote insurance awareness and consumption. In this context, the paper analyses the factors explaining life insurance demand in 12 Asian economies, including economies from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and Association of Southeast Asian Nations regions, as well as China. The results suggest that income, financial depth, inflation, the real interest rate, and the youth dependency ratio are significant determinants of life insurance consumption. Foreign ownership and improved regulations may foster growth. But urbanisation and the literacy rate are among the few determinants found not to have the impact observed in previous studies. The research highlights the limitations of studies using macrodata and contributes to understanding of the growing insurance industry in the region.     

Infrastructure Bond Markets Development in Asia: Challenges and Solutions

To sustain economic growth momentum, Asia needs to continue investing heavily in infrastructure such as roads, ports, and power plants. Financing the region’s huge demand for infrastructure investments is an essential issue for policy-makers across the region. Against the backdrop of expanding fiscal burdens of Asian governments and more stringent capital requirements on bank lending, local currency bonds can serve as an alternative for infrastructure financing in Asia. In this paper, we use empirical analysis to identify the major determinants of infrastructure bond market development. Evidence indicates that an economy’s size is positively related to infrastructure bond market development. Furthermore, we find that Project Bond Initiative, a European Union initiative, contributed significantly to infrastructure development in Europe. The implication for Asian policy-makers is that deepening regional integration of Asian bond markets would help Asian economies to reach an efficient economic scale to foster infrastructure bond market and policy measures in the forms of credit enhancement would facilitate issuance of infrastructure bonds.     

中国引资是否影响了其他地区——对东亚主要经济体的考察

本文借助动态面板数据方法,分析了中国引资规模的扩大对东亚主要经济体外资流入规模的影响。对全体样本的考察显示,中国确实对东亚主要经济体的外资流入总量产生了转移效应,但若是剔除香港地区,中国因素则转变为积极影响。我们认为,出现这一结果的原因与香港地区流入外资的"过境投资"的特殊性质有关。深入的分析表明,由于地区异质性的存在,中国因素对于各经济体的具体影响存在较大差异。     

Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies

Major changes have occurred in the structure of former centrally planned economies, including a sharp rise in the share of services in GDP, employment, and international transactions. However, large differences exist across transition economies with respect to services intensity and services policy reforms. We find that reforms in policies toward financial and infrastructure services, including telecommunications, power, and transport, are highly correlated with inward FDI. Controlling for regressors commonly used in the growth literature, we find that measures of services policy reform are statistically significant explanatory variables for the post-1990 economic performance of transition economies. These findings suggest services policies should be considered more generally in empirical analyses of economic growth. JEL no. F14, F43, O14, O40     

Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.     

Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia

In recent years, many countries have adopted macroprudential measures to safeguard financial stability, in particular to deal with the credit and asset price cycles driven by global capital flows. Using a newly constructed database on macroprudential instruments and capital flow measures in 13 Asian economies and 33 economies in other regions for the period 2000–2013, the paper formulates various macroprudential policy indices, aggregating sub-indices on key instruments. Asian economies appear to have made greater use of macroprudential tools, especially housing-related measures, than their counterparts in other regions. The effects of macroprudential policy are assessed through an event study, cross-country macro panel regressions, and bank-level micro panel regressions. The analysis suggests that housing-related macroprudential instruments-particularly loan-to-value ratio caps and housing tax measures—have helped curb housing price growth, credit growth, and bank leverage in Asia.     

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

The monetarist explanation of inflation: The experience of six Asian countries

Studies on inflation, employing the Harberger-type monetarist model, have focused almost entirely on the hogh inflation experiences, usually those of Latin American countries. This model is applied here to the six Asian countries, which contain low and moderate inflation cases. The empirical results show that the growth of money stock was not the primary source of inflation in these countries. The failure of the monetarist model to explain the behavior of prices in Asian countries may be due (1) partly to the monetization of these economies which makes the growth of money stock endogenous, and (2) partly to its rigid specification which excludes the impact of the various domestic and external cost pressures. To test the validity of the latter proposition, the monetarist model is augmented by the inclusion of import prices which are widely alleged to have intensified inflationary pressures. The empirical results do indeed provide support for this view. As regards monetary policy the findings of this paper suggest that monetary discipline may be, by and large, ineffective in controlling inflation in moderate inflation countries.     

East Asian Export Competitiveness: New Measures and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates the remarkable competitiveness of East Asian countries in world export markets for manufactures and develops some policy implications, both for developed and other developing economies. Using constant market share analysis, applied to data for exports from three East Asian countries–Korea, China and Indonesia–to markets in the industrially advanced economies (IAEs), it shows that East Asian countries have increased their share, not merely in IAE imports, but in total IAE market sales at the expense of exporters from other countries and of domestic IAE producers.     

Stock market uncertainty and uncovered equity parity deviation: Evidence from Asia

Recently, many empirical studies document that a country's stock market performance relative to the US and its local currency units per US dollar tend to move in opposite direction over the short run, also known as the uncovered equity parity (UEP) condition. However, those studies have applied only to advanced economies to date. This study conducted the same tests to a sample of 18 Asian economies. To one's surprise, we found that the UEP condition reverses its sign among Asian currencies. In addition, measures of stock market uncertainty are suggested as a potential driving force behind this UEP reversal for Asian economies. This surprising result suggests that there might be other mechanisms behind the joint dynamics of equity and currency returns than the portfolio rebalancing caused by incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. The reasoning is that Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets are even more subject to incomplete foreign exchange risk hedging. Thus, one should expect even stronger UEP evidence from Asian currency markets if the portfolio rebalancing mechanism was the only force at play.     

Unlocking Productive Entrepreneurship in Africa's Least Developed Countries*

Abstract: In Africa's least developed countries (LDCs), escape from poverty and convergence to living standards of more advanced economies depends critically on structural transformation and the emergence of productive entrepreneurship that would accelerate growth and job creation. So far, however, subsistence agriculture has been the main source of employment in these countries, while a dynamic private sector in industry or high value‐added services has remained elusive. Utilizing the flow approach to labor markets, this paper complements the empirical literature and numerous surveys on small and medium enterprise (SME) constraints and develops a theoretical framework that examines the main obstacles to entrepreneurship in Africa's LDCs. The paper posits that given the persistent frictions in product and labor markets as well as skill shortages that characterize these economies, development of productive entrepreneurship cannot be left to markets alone. The policy analysis suggests that the state has an important role to play. Well‐targeted government interventions including training of potential entrepreneurs and workers can help to establish more modern and highly productive SME clusters that Africa's LDCs need.