我国经济从货币迷失进入通货膨胀原因的探讨

从1997年开始我国经济持续六年通货紧缩，在2003年宏观经济又出人意料的进入了通货膨胀时期。为什么中国经济会从货币迷失进入通货膨胀状态呢？本文分析了我国从紧缩到通胀的五大原因：过去的超额货币供给显性化、固定资产投资过热、银行信贷扩张、经济从相对过剩变为相对短缺、国际间的价格传导。并对我国货币政策的改革提出了几点建议，以提高货币政策效率，保持经济平稳发展。     

我国货币供应内生性实证研究

本文通过对1979—2005年国内生产总值GDP和货币供应量M0,M1,M2进行单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解,发现我国货币供应具有内生性,能影响产出;货币政策具有数量效果;不同层次的货币对经济的冲击不同。     

从货币供给理论看我国当前货币政策的有效性

文章回顾了西方货币供给理论,结合我国当前宏观经济及货币信贷投放情况的新特点,指出货币供给内生性不断增强的趋势,并提出进一步发挥货币政策效用的对策。     

货币政策、公司融资行为与货币供给内生性

本文在对有关文献进行综合研究和借鉴的基础上 ,建立了一个包括公众、商业银行和中央银行的货币供给模型 ,然后使用经验数据对这个模型进行检验。在综合考虑公司的投资、融资行为和政府货币政策因素对货币供给的影响后我们发现 ,在 1 992至 1 998年间 ,除了经济增长和价格水平对货币供给的影响明显增强外 ,货币供给中来自公司融资行为的影响力超过了政府货币政策对货币供给的影响力 ,货币供给表现出内生性特征     

资本流动不对称管理条件下的货币政策

资本流动的不对称管理对于货币政策制定者而言有利有弊。虽然这种管理模式有助于加快经济增长速度、降低失业率以及避免国际收支出现较大的逆差等等,但是它却使得资源配置效率下降。随着改革开放的日益深化和发展,政府也正在逐步地调整原有的资本流动管理政策。     

我国货币供给内生性的理论分析与实证检验

我国货币政策失效的根本原因在于货币供给是内生的,而不是中央银行可以控制的外生变量。本文在回顾内生货币理论发展历程的基础上,从基础货币与货币乘数两个方面论述了我国货币供给内生性的历史演变和作用机理,并用向量自回归模型对货币供应量与国内生产总值的格兰杰因果关系     

内生货币供给理论的演进与展望

内生性货币供给理论的发展大致经历了三个阶段：古典经济学阶段、现代经济学阶段和后凯恩斯主义经济学阶段。本文从这三个阶段出发,分别回顾了从斯图亚特到后凯恩斯主义学派的内生货币供给理论。     

“内生”货币对经济政策的影响

一）引言自从Ｋｅｙｎｅｓ发表《通论》以后，宏观经济理论越来越受到人们的重视。对宏观经济政策的研究也随之变得十分活跃。由于Ｋｅｙｎｅｓ所处的是大萧条时期，他主张通过扩张总需求来拯救经济萧条。在第二次世界大战以后，他的这种财政思想对西方各国的经济政策产生...     

重读《美国货币史》再认识“货币重要”

《美国货币史》论证了货币因素在经济事件中的作用。在全球性金融危机的背景下,重读《美国货币史》,更深刻地感受到＂货币重要＂。历史上和当前发生的金融危机都证明：金融危机的爆发祸起于货币,而化解金融危机又要求助于货币。金融业的不断变革给金融监管带来了困难,而经济社会的稳定发展要求对金融业的谨慎监管,以避免金融危机对经济社会产生不良影响。正是从这个意义上说,虽然＂货币重要＂,但货币管理同样重要。     

“亚元”试水从人民币起步？

“欧元之父”蒙代尔很早以前就作出一个预言：从长远来看，人民币是很有潜力的货币，有可能成为亚洲中心货币。[编者按]     

Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland

This paper tests the stability of the demand for money in the euro-area in the context of an open economy. A sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1982:2–1999:3 period is considered. The main finding is that the U.S. dollar long-term interest rate plays a significant role in the European money demand relationship. This result holds for different combinations of variables forming the vector auto-regressive system and suggests that international monetary interdependency may be an important factor influencing the ECB monetary policy.This paper draws on an earlier version and was prepared while the author was at the Bank of Portugal (the usual disclaimer applies). It was presented at the 2003 Meeting of the Economic Modelling Network. The author acknowledges Luis Catela Nunes, Carlos Santos, Carlos Robalo Marques, Nuno Alves, and an anonymous referee for their helpful suggestions.     

China's Exchange Rate Movements and Corporate Currency Invoicing Strategies

Since China introduced a new managed floating exchange rate regime in 2005, the persistent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has led Chinese firms to reassess their choice of invoice currency among the dollar and other international alternatives to price their exports. The present paper performs a systematic invoice currency analysis by surveying the published literature, summarizing criteria for decision-making, and evaluating the choices available to Chinese exporters implementing currency invoicing strategies to maximize expected profits. This study finds that the euro could play an increasing role as the invoice currency of Chinese firms, although the US dollar will still play a dominant role. Chinese exporters might shift gradually from the dollar to the euro in the face of the falling dollar, balancing between the two by necessity.     

Currency Substitution and the Stability of the Demand for Money in East Asia

Abstract

This paper models and tests the stability of the demand for money in five East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—in the context of an open economy. The Johansen multivariate cointegration vector error correction analysis against quarterly data covering the period 1985:1–2001:4 was used. It was found that a stationary long run cointegrating relationship exists between broad money, real income, domestic interest rates, foreign interest rates corrected for exchange rate depreciation, and the expected rate of depreciation of the exchange rate. The results show that US Treasury bills rates and the foreign exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar play a significant role in the East Asian countries money demand relationship. This suggests that currency substitution vis-à-vis the US dollar may be an important consideration in the design and implementation of monetary policy in the East Asian countries. Furthermore, the results show that the Asian currency crises impacted the money demand functions negatively in these countries. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests show no evidence of parameter instability of the money demand functions in three of the five countries throughout the period under investigation.     

汇率制度的选择及政策含义

二十多年前,讨论不同汇率制度的选择问题主要涉及到工资或价格刚性的问题、要素(主要是劳动力)的流动、共同的冲击与单个地区冲击的相对重要性,以及实际与名义的冲击的相对重要性.现在讨论汇率制度的选择注意力已经转移到其他问题上如货币和财政政策的可信度问题、政策制定者不同的承诺机制问题、国内金融体系的稳定性和强弱性问题.这种变化主要源于两点:首先,经济学家现在意识到缺乏普遍可接受的,并且被有力证实的汇率和汇率制度理论.第二,宏观经济理论的发展已经把注意力集中在这些更新的因素上.     

外汇储备超常增长下的财政政策选择

2001年以来,我国外汇储备加速增长,到2006年10月份突破1万亿美元,成为世界第一大外汇储备国.巨额外汇储备造成了外汇占款激增,增加了基础货币投放,致使当前我国通货膨胀压力加大,进一步削弱了货币政策独立性和有效性.为此,文章提出利用适度扩张的财政政策,即通过政府发行长期债券的方式吸纳多余的外汇储备,扩大内需,调节经济内外平衡.     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

我国外汇占款影响货币供给的实证研究

近年我国外汇储备的持续增长,造成外汇占款大幅增长,最后引致货币供给增加。本文将对我国外汇占款对货币供给的影响作用进行实证分析,结果表明我国外汇占款和货币供给量M2之间存在稳定的均衡关系,我国外汇占款的巨剧增长,容易导致货币市场失衡。     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa's Emerging Economies

This paper examines the dynamic of currency substitution (CS) in Egypt and South Africa. The study also assesses the causal relationships of this phenomenon. There are three main CS‐related differences between the two countries. These are (1) the orientation of economic policy, (2) the degree and level of CS, and (3) the trend of CS. During the study period 1991‐2001, Egypt used the exchange rate as an anchor to its economic programme. While in the case of South Africa, the authorities directly targeted inflation. During this period, CS in Egypt started at a substantial level and experienced a steady decline. Conversely, CS in South Africa started at an insignificant level, but observed an uninterrupted increase. The results suggest that the elasticity of CS, with respect to exchange rate, of South Africa is 2.3 times that of Egypt, and that the speed of adjustment in South Africa is 5 times faster than in Egypt. Granger‐causality tests indicate a unidirectional relationship from the exchange rate to CS, in both Egypt and South Africa. The test for the interest rate differential and CS indicate that causality runs from the former to the latter in South Africa, but it runs in the opposite direction in Egypt. The study suggests that despite the cost of the exchange rate anchoring policy, it is more suitable to a high CS environment. Inflation targeting policy can be effective in achieving its objective as long as the CS is insignificant.