所有权性质、盈利能力与商业信用的提供——基于再分配理论的实证研究

商业信用是企业最重要的短期外部融资来源之一,对于无法获得银行贷款的企业更是其最重要的外部融资渠道。文章通过对我国A股制造业上市公司的实证研究,发现在控制了规模、成立时间、行业竞争性等因素后,银行短期借款越多的公司提供了更多的商业信用,支持了商业信用的"再分配"观。研究结论还表明,利用银行信用提供商业信用再分配的现象只在非国有上市公司中存在,盈利状况较差的非国有上市公司在银行信用的基础上提供了更多的商业信用。     

Long-term finance and entrepreneurship

This paper investigates whether long-term finance affects firm entry worldwide. We construct a new database on short- and long-term credit provided by commercial banks to the private sector in 85 countries over the period 1995–2014. We then analyze whether differences in entrepreneurship are related to the provision of short- and long-term bank credit. Data on entrepreneurship are extracted from two frequently used databases: the Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring dataset and the Entrepreneurship Database, each of which captures different aspects of firm creation. The econometric results indicate that long-term credit does not stimulate firm entry. By contrast, we find that short-term credit is positively related to firm creation, from birth to registration. Controlling for potential endogeneity by implementing an instrumental variables approach does not affect our conclusions. Our findings suggest that better provision of short-term credit allows entrepreneurs to apply for formal loans instead of having to rely exclusively on informal loans or internal funds. The absence of impact of long-term loans can be explained by the difficulty entrepreneurs face in getting access to long-term credit.     

Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings

Although the corporate credit risk literature includes many studies modelling the change in the credit risk of corporate bonds over time, there has been far less analysis of the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans. However, behavioural scores, which are calculated on a monthly basis by most consumer lenders, are the analogues of ratings in corporate credit risk. Motivated by studies of corporate credit risk, we develop a Markov chain model based on behavioural scores for establishing the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans. Although such models have been used by lenders to develop models for the Basel Accord, nothing has been published in the literature on them. The model which we suggest differs in many respects from the corporate credit ones based on Markov chains — such as the need for a second order Markov chain, the inclusion of economic variables and the age of the loan. The model is applied using data on a credit card portfolio from a major UK bank.     

The impact of bank supervision on loan growth

This paper quantifies the short-term and long-term impact of bank supervision (measured using CAMEL composite and component ratings) on different categories of loan growth: (a) commercial and industrial loans, (b) consumer loans, and (c) real estate loans. For each of these categories, we perform dynamic loan growth equations at the state-level augmented by the inclusion of CAMEL ratings for all banks in the state, after controlling for banking and economic conditions. We perform these regressions for two distinct sub-periods: (1) 1985–1993 (which covers the credit crunch period) and (2) 1994–2004 (which covers the sustained recovery period). For the first period, 1985–1993, we find that out of the three loan categories considered, business lending is the most sensitive to changes in CAMEL ratings (both the composite and the components), although the other loan categories also show some sensitivity. Overall, however, we find little evidence suggesting that the effects of changes in any of the components of CAMEL ratings differ systematically from the effects of changes in the composite CAMEL. For the second period, we find little evidence that changes in CAMEL ratings (the composite or its components) had any systematic effect on loan growth for any of the loan categories considered.     

国家审计与商业银行信贷行为

采用2008—2020年中国商业银行非平衡面板数据,考察国家审计对银行信贷行为的影响。研究发现,国家审计可以促使银行提供更为宽松的信贷,且这种效应具有延续性。机制分析结果表明,国家审计可以通过提高管理效率、减少违规行为、加快经济增长三条渠道促进银行扩充信贷。异质性分析发现,国家审计对内部治理较好、东部地区、外部法律环境较好的银行信贷行为的正向影响更加显著。调节效应研究发现,社会审计增强了国家审计对银行信贷的促进作用,媒体监督削弱了国家审计的促进效应,而公众监督的调节效应不显著。进一步研究发现,虽然国家审计推动了银行信贷投放,但对贷款集中度产生了抑制作用,且相较于商业贷款和非农户贷款,国家审计提升了消费贷款和农户贷款,国家审计与银行信贷的关系在降低不良贷款率的同时提升了银行财务业绩,说明国家审计可以助推银行信贷业务的高质量发展。     

The finance-growth nexus: The role of banks

We contribute to the finance-growth nexus literature by showing that credit origin, bank ownership, type of credit, and bank type matter in economic growth. We use a unique dataset covering 5555 cities in Brazil, with granular information on credit characteristics. We find that non-earmarked credit to the corporate sector is associated with municipal economic growth more strongly than earmarked credit, despite the increase in the relevance of the latter after the global financial crisis. We also find that the type of credit—whether the loans are general purpose or for a specific purpose—is associated with economic growth in different ways. Overall, credit provided to the corporate sector by domestic private banks is correlated with higher economic growth rates. In contrast, the relationship between credit from state-owned banks and economic growth becomes statistically significant only after the crisis. Although we follow the finance-growth literature in our empirical exercises using internal instruments in generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations, we also conduct robustness tests using two additional external instruments: the number of complaints filed against each bank and local credit accessibility. Our findings with external instruments are the same with respect to the use of traditional internal instruments in GMM estimations.     

产权保护、信贷机会、所有权结构与公司投资——来自中国制造业企业的经验数据

本文以2002年中国制造业企业的经验数据为样本,在控制了相关微观企业变量与宏观城市变量的基础上,对公司投资支出与产权保护、信贷机会、所有权结构之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,公司投资支出与保护企业财产权利的产权保护因素及所有权结构显著相关,但使用该样本回归分析中信贷机会的作用则不明朗,这可能与样本采集年份的国家政策有一定关联。建议完善保护企业财产权利司法体制、加强促进公司投资的制度建设,同时尽快缩小转型经济期间对不同所有制企业的区别对待等。     

Do credit squeezes influence firm survival? An empirical investigation of China

This paper analyses the effect of a “credit squeeze” policy that was set by the Chinese government in 2007, increasing the strictness for firm-level bank loans. We adopt the difference-in-difference (DID) model to compare the survival rate change before and after the policy was implemented. We further explore the mechanism behind how the “credit squeeze” policy reduced the probability of firms surviving the market from perspectives such as financial constraints and ownership structures. The “credit squeeze” policy significantly increased firms’ operating costs and lowered firms’ productivity. In addition, we find that the zombie firm phenomenon existing in state-owned enterprises has a large impact on our estimation. Our results provide practical policy implications regarding the compromise between systematic debt risk and firm survival.     

How Do Small Businesses Finance Their Growth Opportunities?—The Case of Recovery from the Lost Decade in Japan

Previous studies argue that bank loans are cheaper than trade credit, so less‐constrained firms largely depend on bank loans and use trade credit less, especially in financially developed economies. However, the Japanese evidence does not support this view. First, small businesses with higher credit demand increase trade credit more during the period of the recovery from a severe recession. Second, creditworthy firms also increase trade credit to finance their growth opportunities. Third, firms in unstable industries increase trade credit more. This suggests that suppliers are able to offer credit, unlike banks, as they have a relative advantage in day‐by‐day monitoring. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour

We model aggregate delinquency behaviour for consumer credit (including credit card loans and other consumer loans) and for residential real estate loans using data up until 2008. We test for cointegrating relationships and then estimate short run error correction models. We find evidence to support the portfolio explanations of declines in credit quality for consumer and for real estate loans, but support for the reduced stigma explanation was restricted to real estate loans. Evidence supportive of household-level explanations of irrational borrowing and unexpected net income shocks was found for consumer and real estate loans, but evidence of strategic default was restricted to the volume of consumer loans and real estate loans, and not for credit cards. We also found that the error correction model gave forecasts of the volume of delinquent consumer debt which were of an accuracy comparable to that of an ARIMA model.     

Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies

During the Great Moderation, the consumer unsecured debt-to-income ratio nearly doubled and the personal bankruptcy filing rate more than quadrupled. This historically tranquil period ended in 2008 with a severe recession and a protracted credit crunch. We develop a theory of learning in which consumers and lenders adjust their beliefs about the riskiness of the economic environment over time in response to the realized sequence of aggregate shocks and then embed it into an otherwise standard quantitative model of consumer default. Simulations of the model suggest that learning can explain as much as half of the recent boom and bust cycle in consumer unsecured debt and a modest fraction of the rise in bankruptcy filings prior to 2005.     

基于产业异质性的银行贷款政策效应分析——来自上市银行的经验证据

在银行信贷资金配置存在产业间差异的假定下,建立引入产业因素的银行贷款决定模型,考察产业因素影响银行贷款渠道有效性的内在机制,并运用2007年到2010年14家上市银行和5组产业数据展开动态面板模型估计,结果表明:从贷款需求角度看,各个产业的产出对产业贷款的影响效应存在产业间差异;从贷款供给角度看,人民银行运用货币政策工具调控产业贷款的影响效应也存在产业间差异。也就是说,产业因素确实影响到人民银行调控各个特定产业贷款的力度。     

Credit allocation and the financial crisis: evidence from Spanish companies

The worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008 raised serious concerns about the soundness of banks’ activities and about the extent to which banking regulation should supervise banks’ investment decisions. We contribute to this topic by examining the Spanish case, which has been emblematic of the bubble and burst dynamics in the credit market. In particular, we study the allocation of bank credit among Spanish companies from 1999 to 2014, showing that larger companies accumulated greater amounts of bank loans per unit of total assets, thus leading to a notable concentration. We also find that, during the Spanish boom period, bank loans shifted from the manufacturing to the construction industry, and in particular to the largest companies of the latter sector. This happened in spite of the high leverage of large construction firms, which was increasing also due to their growing debt. We argue that the higher operating benefits, reflecting the increase of the housing price during the boom period, overvalued construction firms as potential borrowers. The bankruptcy of several large construction companies during the Spanish crisis supports the need for monitoring and regulation, to avoid an excessive concentration of bank credit to a few large companies, especially if they belong to a specific sector.

     

Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?

In this study, we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of household loan delinquency for home ownership, credit card and auto loans for the U.S. states in a panel framework over a period from 2003 through 2017. In particular, we examine the impact of consumer sentiments on loan delinquency rates. We show that improved current consumer sentiment significantly induce lower mortgage, credit card and automobile loan defaults in the American states subdivided into four different regions. We also find that the higher overall and expected consumer sentiment raise loan delinquencies. Implicit in this finding is the apparently excessive and inappropriate expansion of loans in the U.S. economy in the face of consumers’ optimism, which in turn, provides an intuitive understanding of the circumstances that could precede a depression or outbreak of anomalies in the financial sector. Our general findings further exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and mostly adverse effect of per capita income on mortgage and automobile loan delinquency rates. The results provide some compelling evidence with regard to the effect of consumer confidence on household credit delinquency rates across various states in the U.S. and are robust to alternative measures of income and mortgage rates.     

Heterogeneity in bank pricing policies: The Czech evidence

We estimate the pass-through from market interest rates to bank interest rates using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to address heterogeneity at the bank level in the Czech Republic. The results indicate heterogeneity in bank pricing in the short, but not in the long term. Mortgage rates and firm rates typically adjust to money market changes, but often less than fully in the long run. Large corporate loans have a smaller mark-up than small loans. Consumer rates have a high mark-up and do not exhibit a cointegration relationship with money market rates even in the long run. Next, we examine how bank characteristics determine the nature of interest rate pass-through in a cross-section of Czech banks. We find evidence for relationship lending, as banks with a stable pool of deposits smooth interest rates and require a higher spread as compensation. Large banks are not found to price their products less competitively. Greater credit risk increases vulnerability to money market shocks.     

Bank efficiency and access to credit: International evidence

This paper examines the impact of bank efficiency on access to credit. We test the hypothesis that higher bank efficiency, meaning a better ability of banks to operate at lower costs, favors access to credit for firms. To this end, we perform a cross-country analysis with firm-level data on access to credit and bank-level data to compute bank efficiency, using a sample of about 54,000 firms from 76 countries. We find that greater bank efficiency improves access to credit for firms. The beneficial impact of bank efficiency to alleviate credit constraints takes place through the demand channel by reducing borrower discouragement to apply for a loan. Whereas the positive impact of bank efficiency on credit access is observed for firms of all sizes, the effect tends to be more pronounced in countries with a better economic and institutional framework. Our results therefore support policies favouring bank efficiency to enhance access to credit.     

The Implications of Trade Credit for Bank Monitoring: Suggestive Evidence from Japan

Firms in modern developed economies borrow from both banks and trade partners. Using Japanese manufacturing data from the 1960s, we estimate the price of trade credit, and explore some of the ways firms choose between the credit and bank loans. We find that firms of all sizes borrow heavily from their trade partners, and at implicit rates that track the explicit rates banks would charge. They borrow from banks when they anticipate needing money for relatively long periods; they turn to trade partners when they face short-term unexpected exigencies. This apparent contrast in the term structures follows, we suggest, from the fundamentally different way bankers and trade partners cut default risk. Because bankers seldom know their borrowers' industries first hand, they rely on formal legal protection (like security interests). Because trade partners know the industry well, they reduce risk by monitoring their borrowers closely instead. Because the costs to creating legal mechanisms are heavily front-loaded, bankers focus on long-term debt; because the costs of monitoring debtors are ongoing, trade creditors do not. Apparently, banks monitor less than we have thought.     

Trade credit versus bank credit: Evidence from corporate inventory financing

In this study, I introduce capital market imperfections into a structure framework of inventory investments and investigate impacts of trade credit on firms’ inventory dynamics and analyze the relationship between trade credit and bank loans. As a result, firms end up using a mix of trade credit and bank loans. I find that the use of trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes. During tight monetary periods, trade credit operates mainly as a substitute for bank borrowing while during looser monetary episodes even when the economy is weak, trade credit and bank loans are dominated by a complementary effect.     

The interest rate spreads in the Czech Republic: Different loans,different determinants?

We analyze the determinants of interest rate spreads of different loan categories in the Czech Republic during 2004–2011. We employ a detailed bank supervisory dataset that allows us to construct the actual spreads for four loan categories, namely small and large corporate loans, consumer loans and mortgages, on a monthly basis. Our regression analysis shows that bank and macroeconomic characteristics matter more for setting the spreads for small corporate loans and mortgages rather than for large corporate loans and consumer loans. Interest rate risk determines the spreads for all loan categories. The global financial crisis has, to a certain extent, increased the responsiveness of spreads to interest rate risk and liquidity risk.     

The number of banking relationships and the business cycle: New evidence from Colombia

We study the determinants of multiple bank–firm relationships using a uniquely rich data set comprised of information on individual loans of a large number of firms in Colombia. We control for firm-specific variables and find that the business cycle exerts important influence on the number of bank relationships sustained by firms. Our evidence suggests that the number of bank relationships is counter-cyclical, decreasing during macroeconomic expansions and increasing during contractions. However, this effect is stronger for large firms which have more access to alternative sources of funding.