资本账户开放缩窄了商业银行利差吗？——来自41个新兴市场经济体的证据

银行利差反映银行业效率,研究资本账户开放对银行利差的影响及作用机理具有重要的现实意义。构建一个包含异质性企业的多部门分析框架,从微观层面剖析资本账户开放影响银行利差的内在机制,并运用41个新兴市场经济体国家1996—2016年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明：资本账户开放显著降低了商业银行利差,法定型和事实型开放指数每增加一单位标准差,银行利差分别下降0.68和0.90个百分点。由此可见,加快推进资本账户开放是新常态下提升银行业效率,降低社会融资成本,进而实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。商业银行应大力拓展非利息业务,促进产品和业务升级,创造新的盈利增长点,以弥补利差缩窄带来的不利影响。     

Bank failure prediction models: for the developing and developed countries

Banks make good use of capital and have characteristics different from profit businesses. Mismanagement causes collapse, which negatively affects investors, depositors, and employees, and disrupts economic order. Consequences may also affect other industries, triggering financial distress. Therefore, evaluating operational risks in banks and developing an early warning system are critical. This study evaluates data from 858 international banks (including banking holding companies) from 2005 to 2008 and applies a logistic model to analyze critical factors. Results show that equity-to-assets (ETA) and interest income – interest expense/income (NIN) had negative relationships with financial distress. Banks accept deposits and make loans. A higher proportion of NIN shows stable business volume, which could avert financial distress. Therefore, ETA and NIN were indicative of banking financial distress and best predicted trends in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and European Union (EU) banks.     

Interest rates and financial fragility

How do the interest rates banks earn on their assets affect the susceptibility of the banking system to a self-fulfilling run by depositors? I study this question in a version of the model of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) with limited commitment and a non-trivial portfolio choice. I show that the relationship between these interest rates and financial fragility is often non-monotone. For example, a small increase in the return on illiquid investment (or a small increase in the term premium) may raise banks’ susceptibility to a run, while a larger increase would make the banking system more stable. The same is true for changes in short-term rates, holding the longer-term rates fixed. I provide a precise characterization of these comparative statics of financial fragility.     

浅谈当前形势下个人银行业务面临的机遇与挑战

近年来,银行的零售业务迅速发展,已经成为银行三大支柱业务之一,本文将简述目前个人银行业务面临的机遇与挑战,并对下一步个人银行业务发展方向提出浅薄建议。     

Explaining the profitability of foreign banks in Shanghai

This paper uses survival analysis to examine the factors determining the time taken for branches of foreign banks in Shanghai, China to make a positive rate of return after entering that market. Particular attributes of banks including the parent bank's size, early entry and the number of branches the bank has in China are found to reduce time to profitability. Market conditions in Shanghai, captured by levels of foreign direct investment and Eurodollar interest rates, are also found to have significant effects. A number of managerial implications are drawn from the analysis in light of the greater access to the Chinese banking markets following China's accession to the WTO. To ensure long‐term profitability in Shanghai, the foreign bank needs to contain costs and risks in the new markets, formulate an effective market penetration strategy, identify appropriate customer target groups, attract businesses from firms of different countries, seek early entry and undertake more fee‐income generating businesses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ECFA架构下的银行业供应链联盟分析

回顾了ECFA中有关银行业的规定,分析了两岸金融业合作的背景和发展历程,分析了台资银行业在中国大陆市场的布局,并提出了台资银行业进入中国大陆市场的建议,即初期以服务于大陆地区的台商为主,地域上则是首选台商集中的长三角和珠三角地区。     

Indirect Convertibility,Equity‐Based Banking and Financial Stability

Banking reform proposals put forward in the wake of the recent financial crisis maintain that equity‐based banking would be stable and would prevent bank runs. This article argues that complementing this form of banking with an indirect convertibility monetary standard and thereby dispensing with base money would enhance financial stability further. Banks would not hold a distinctive asset (base money) that would be called upon by customers at short notice, thereby removing the possibility of bank runs. No discrepancy in value between the two sides of a bank's balance sheet would arise as its assets (securitised loans) would be marked to market. Unlike other recent contributions, the intermediation model outlined here is not ‘limited purpose’ in nature as banks would not be restricted in the form of lending activity they can pursue. Common sources of banking and financial instability – liquidity risk, solvency risk, moral hazard – would be absent.     

Do lenders discriminate against minority and woman entrepreneurs?

This paper draws on a conceptual analysis of discrimination to improve the methodology for estimating discrimination in small-business credit markets and to provide some evidence about the possible causes of discrimination in these markets. Using a variety of statistical enhancements to existing studies, we find statistically significant evidence of substantial discrimination in loan approval against black-owned and Hispanic-owned businesses in 1998. We also find some hints that this discrimination takes the form of statistical discrimination, driven by lenders' stereotypes about the ability of black- and Hispanic-owned businesses to succeed under some circumstances. Although we find no discrimination, on average, in interest rates on approved loans, we also find that black-owned businesses do face discrimination in interest rates when they borrow from finance companies and businesses, such as mutual fund companies and leasing companies, with a primary mission other than lending. These findings suggest that federal financial regulatory agencies should re-double their efforts to uncover and prosecute lenders who discriminate against black- and Hispanic-owned businesses and that new tools may be needed to find discrimination by firms not well covered by the existing fair-lending enforcement system.     

Determinants of bank interest margins in Russia: Does bank ownership matter?

This paper analyzes interest margin determinants in the Russian banking sector with a particular emphasis on the bank ownership structure. Using unique bank-level data covering Russia's entire banking sector for the 1999–2007 period, we find that the impact of a number of commonly used determinants such as market structure, credit risk, liquidity risk and size of operations differs across state-controlled, domestic-private and foreign-owned banks. At the same time, the influence of operational costs and risk aversion is homogeneous across ownership groups. The results overall suggest that the form of bank ownership needs to be considered when analyzing interest margin determinants.     

中国银行业绩高增长背后的风险因素分析

本文首先用一个简单的垄断竞争模型分析了各种因素对银行业绩的影响,然后用面板回归分析模 型对具有代表性的14家银行进行了回归分析,揭示了银行利润与各种因素的关系。分析表明,规模扩张和利差是中国银行利润增长决定因素,不良贷款率和存贷比对银行利润有负面作用,但利率、法定准备金率等变量与利润的关系与静态理论的预测相反,表明货币政策操作往往是顺周期的,对货币政策的滞后效应估计不足,需要加强对经济周期规律性研究,提高货币政策的前瞻性。本文还分析了当前经济增长结构性减速、利率市场化给银行带来的可能影响,从道德风险、国内外利差和汇率波动角度分析了银行和宏观经济面临的风险。     

Combining monetary policy and prudential regulation: an agent-based modeling approach

This paper explores the interaction between monetary policy and prudential regulation in an agent-based modeling framework. Firms borrow funds from the banking system in an economy regulated by a central bank. The central bank carries out monetary policy, by setting the interest rate, and prudential regulation, by establishing the banking capital requirement. Different combinations of interest rate rule and capital requirement rule are evaluated with respect to both macroeconomic and financial stability. Several relevant policy implications were drawn. First, the efficacy of a given capital requirement rule or interest rate rule depends on the specification of the rule of the other type it is combined with. More precisely, less aggressive interest rate rules perform better when the range of variation of the capital requirement is narrower. Second, interest rate smoothing is more effective than the other interest rate rules assessed, as it outperforms those other rules with respect to financial stability and macroeconomic stability. Third, there is no tradeoff between financial and macroeconomic stability associated with a variation of either the capital requirement or the smoothing interest rate parameter. Finally, our results reinforce the cautionary finding of other studies regarding how output can be ravaged by a low inflation targeting.

     

Leverage and firm growth: an empirical investigation of gazelles from emerging Europe

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of leverage on gazelles’ performance while controlling for firm characteristics, macroeconomic environment, and characteristics of domestic banking sectors. Using a sample of 1105 gazelles from Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries for the period 2006–2014, we find that leverage negatively affects firm growth. The results prove to be robust regarding the use of different estimation approaches, alternatives variables for firm growth, and different sub-samples. Our results suggest that improving access to various sources and types of financing represents a key issue for supporting gazelles’ growth. We also find that macroeconomic environment and banking sector characteristics are important determinants of gazelles’ growth. The economic growth positively influences sales and total assets growth, while the effect of financial and economic development varied with the firm growth measure used. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the need of policy initiatives at national and European Union level to facilitate the growth of small businesses.

     

Accounting for financial instruments in the banking industry: conclusions from a simulation model

The paper analyses the effects of three sets of accounting rules for financial instruments – Old IAS before IAS 39 became effective, Current IAS or US GAAP, and the Full Fair Value (FFV) model proposed by the Joint Working Group (JWG) – on the financial statements of banks. We develop a simulation model that captures the essential characteristics of a modern universal bank with investment banking and commercial banking activities. We run simulations for different strategies (fully hedged, partially hedged) using historical data from periods with rising and falling interest rates.

We show that under Old IAS a fully hedged bank can portray its zero economic earnings in its financial statements. As Old IAS offer much discretion, this bank may also present income that is either positive or negative. We further show that because of the restrictive hedge accounting rules, banks cannot adequately portray their best-practice risk management activities under Current IAS or US GAAP. We demonstrate that – contrary to assertions from the banking industry – mandatory FFV accounting adequately reflects the economics of banking activities.

Our detailed analysis identifies, in addition, several critical issues of the accounting models that have not been covered in previous literature.     

A study of university/small business interaction for technology transfer

The objective of the project on which this paper is based was to find effective methods of stimulating technology transfer between academic institutions and small businesses. A major thrust was to find means to reduce existing barriers to useful interaction between these two groups.Small businesses in the Western Pennsylvania region were initially contacted by a questionnaire and a larger sample was approached later by a widely distributed letter to solicit interest. Visits were made to interested businesses to identify problem areas, and these were then transmitted to appropriate resources. Carnegie-Mellon University was originally the prime resource. As the project progressed, a number of other academic institutions were invited and agreed to participate. The case method of data assessment was utilized since the type of information obtained did not lend itself to quantitative analysis.Many contacts occurred between academic and small-business personnel. Two work contracts resulted, both between small businesses and another private firm. Major results included the finding that great differences exist between small-business and academic personnel in perception of problem importance, time required to solve problems, and appropriateness of cost factors. These differences tended to dampen initial enthusiasm and interfered with the development of effective working relationships. Plans to establish consortia of small businesses to seek assistance with common problems at reasonable cost to each member were uniformly rejected by the businesses. They did not wish competitors to gain similar technological advantages.It was originally felt that different sizes and types of academic institutions would show differences in motivation to participate, in particular that smaller colleges or universities would be more active than major research institutions. Such differences were observed at the verbal level, but did not materialize as behavioral manifestations.A major conclusion was that no general system for effective technology transfer exists in the united States with reference to the types of small businesses involved in the study. While many successful formal and informal systems are in operation, some of long duration, the majority of small manufacturing and material producing firms are not involved in or aware of such programs.In addition to often studied economic, technical, and political variables affecting technology transfer, it is suggested that greater research and system design attention be directed toward psychological and sociocultural factors observed as having inhibiting effects. Improved communication and cooperation between small businesses and academic technological resources are likely to occur only through re-education of pertinent attitudes and perceptions of the parties involved.     

家庭资本：家族企业竞争优势的一个重要源泉

在资源优势理论与企业核心能力理论的基础上，本文着重探讨了，资金、技术、管理等都处于劣势的家族企业获得竞争优势的一个重要源泉是家庭资本(社会资本的一个子集)，家庭资本是家族企业潜在资产，不能直接产生竞争优势，但能创造与企业持续竞争优势更直接有关的资产。本文认为对于这些资产，或者仅仅只有家族企业能获得，或者家族企业比非家族企业更容易获得，因此这些家庭资本成为家族企业的独特资源优势，最终导致家族企业竞争优势的形成。     

我国商业银行碳金融业务创新研究

为应对全球气候的剧烈变化,世界各国纷纷采纳以低碳经济为核心的新经济发展模式。而随着我国低碳经济的发展,碳金融成为低碳经济发展模式的最重要形式,并推动着我国社会经济的转型和升级。本文针对我国银行业低碳金融发展状况,分析了我国商业银行开展碳金融业务的必要性,探讨了碳金融业务开展的主要障碍,并为商业银行在低碳金融领域进行一系列有益的探索和尝试,提出了相应策略。     

Survival and Failure of Small Businesses Arising Through Government Privatization: Insights from Two New Zealand Firms*

Redundancies of personnel arising from the corporatization and even subsequent privatization/closure of several federal departments have contributed to the number of small businesses in New Zealand, a phenomenon that will likely be mirrored at least partially as other nations progressively liberalize their economies. Small businesses with such origins would appear to be especially prone to failure in a progressively liberalized trading environment; their precursors in the parent government departments or agencies would have been cocooned from immediate market conditions through budgetary allocations and a lack of competition. However, the scholarly literature on the behaviour of such small businesses is scant. Accordingly, we report the findings from a comparative investigation of two businesses that arose in the wake of the failure/closure of a corporatized federal service agency in New Zealand; one of the two businesses was much more successful than the other. Our major finding is that a small firm with such origins is likely to survive to the extent it avoids becoming complacent and being ‘stuck in the mud’ of the legacy of the failed federal parent. A predictor of such ability is the timing of small business formation: a small business that is formed by members who depart from the dying federal parent organization when the latter's closure is apparent, is more likely to survive than a business whose formation is precipitated by the demise of the federal parent and whose members remain in the parent organization until its formal closure.     

On the monetary policy in an economy with banks endogenously creating money

This paper attempts to employ a microeconomic model (industrial-organization approach to banking) to formalize the concept that banks in an economy may also unilaterally create money, at least initially, rather than passively multiplying the base money exogenously issued by the Central Bank in the money creation process. It shows that in equilibrium, banks may indeed create money (bank deposits) when making loans without relying on the newly issued base money from the Central Bank. Instead, the endogenously created money by banks would cause the Central Bank to endogenously adjust base money to hit the target policy interest rate.     

Political Interests and the Emergence of Commercial Banking in Transition Economies*

abstract This paper examines how interactions between government agencies and banking organizations led to the emergence of commercial banking in the Czech Republic and Hungary during the 1990s. We rely on interviews with bank managers at six large banks, government officers, and experts at other organizations to learn how actions based on different political ideologies shaped the banking field. We integrate prior research on institutional change, political interest, and transition economies to describe the emergence of commercial banking. Three important problems characterized commercial banking in the two countries: the disposal of bad loans, the privatization of banks, and the establishment of banking services. We argue that the solutions to these problems based on the changing political interests of organizational actors and regulators represent the phases of institutional development in commercial banking during the 1990s. Implications of our research are discussed regarding the political perspective of organizational fields in transition economies.     

Rising House Prices and Ultra‐low Interest Rates: A Recipe for a New Banking Crisis?

Are overheating housing markets and rising interest rate risks becoming a breeding ground for yet another banking crisis? We assess these risks for the German case. We find that they are indeed building up and may very well form the basis for a new banking crisis – unless prevented through responsible banking decisions, supervisory guidance, and policy adjustments.