Can indeterminacy resolve the cross-country correlation puzzle?

Are productivity shocks the only driving force of international business fluctuations? In this paper I argue that another source of uncertainty—changes in market expectations or ‘sunspots’ – is also important. One major shortcoming of existing IRBC models is the ‘cross-country correlation puzzle’: models tend to generate cross-country consumption correlations that are too high and output, investment and employment correlations that are too low when compared to the data. I show that with empirically supported level of increasing returns, an otherwise standard model possesses multiple, indeterminate convergent paths to the steady state, which allow for sunspots to influence the economy. The model displays time series properties that in many ways match the data better than the conventional model. It is especially successful in generating realistic consumption and output correlations.     

Volatility, growth, and welfare

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.     

固定资产折旧及其政策选择

折旧作为再生产过程中的经济现象,其本质属性是固定资产损耗价值的周转过程,包括固定资产价值的损耗、转移和补偿。在此理论基础上,企业折旧政策的选择应该是既能考虑补偿损耗、企业扩张和纳税延期的要求,又能满足维护和提高企业的市场价值的要求。折旧政策选择可采用以下策略,即企业盈利水平不断提高时,可以选择长时间慢速折旧和长时间平均折旧;企业盈利水平呈下降趋势或先高后低时,则可以选择短时间快速折旧和长时间快速折旧。     

浅析固定资产减值准备与累计折旧的关系

文章从固定资产减值准备和折旧的概念入手,阐述了它们的联系和区别,并分析了固定资产计提减值准备后的折旧核算方法。在实务中我们往往对定资产减值与折旧两者之间的差别认识不清,主要是由于两者之间存在许多共同之处。它们都不同程度地体现了\"谨慎\"的原则,包括正确计算损益、减少风险损失、合理确定成本补偿尺度等,正是这些相似之处,让我们日常难以区别。     

国房地产市场金融加速器效应的实证研究

中国房地产市场近年来一直处于非理性繁荣状态,因此,中央政府陆续出台一系列房地产调控政策旨在挤出房地产泡沫,平抑其投资过热现象,从而实现宏观经济在金融危机后的软着陆。此外,央行不断上调存款准备金率和基准利率更是加重了仍处在调控政策消化阶段的房地产市场的下行预期。根据金融加速器理论,初始的外部冲击通过信贷市场的放大作用,最终将引发大幅度的市场波动,破坏实体经济的正常运行。房地产企业的高负债率和开发模式决定了房地产市场中金融加速器效应十分显著,尤其是在政策变动和楼市供求关系发生逆转的情况下,表现更为明显。最后提出了相应的政策建议．     

中国房地产市场金融加速器效应的实证研究

中国房地产市场近年来一直处于非理性繁荣状态,因此,中央政府陆续出台一系列房地产调控政策旨在挤出房地产泡沫,平抑其投资过热现象,从而实现宏观经济在金融危机后的软着陆。此外,央行不断上调存款准备金率和基准利率更是加重了仍处在调控政策消化阶段的房地产市场的下行预期。根据金融加速器理论,初始的外部冲击通过信贷市场的放大作用,最终将引发大幅度的市场波动,破坏实体经济的正常运行。房地产企业的高负债率和开发模式决定了房地产市场中金融加速器效应十分显著,尤其是在政策变动和楼市供求关系发生逆转的情况下,表现更为明显。最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

The invalidity of the Condorcet Jury Theorem under endogenous decisional skills

The current note clarifies that Condorcet Jury Theorem cannot be generalized to the extended setting where individual decisional skills are not assumed to be exogenous parameters even when these skills are homogeneous. This is true when skills are determined endogenously either by a central planner or, in a decentralized strategic setting, by the decision makers themselves.     

Information technologies, embodiment and growth

This paper studies the conditions under which an IT revolution may occur and have permanent effects on long-term growth. To this end, we construct a multi-sectoral growth model with endogenous embodied technical progress. The R&D sector expands the range of softwares. The capital sector produces efficient capital combining hardware with available softwares. Technological progress is therefore embodied: New softwares can only be run on the most recent generations of hardware. The new softwares are copyrighted during a fixed period of time. First, we analytically characterize the balanced growth paths of the model. Then we focus on the dynamic response of the economy to technological shocks. Substitution effects favorable to the IT sectors are shown to arise when positive supply shocks affect the production of efficient capital and/or the creation of new softwares. Positive shocks specific to the capital sector are unable to produce effects on long-term growth, in contrast to the shocks specific to the R&D sector.     

社会资本与经济转轨

社会资本既具有非正式制度的属性,同时也具有组织的属性,它能够给处于其中的人带来收益。本文认为,社会资本可分为人格化的社会资本和非人格化的社会资本,而经济转轨就是从人格化的社会资本向非人格化的社会资本的转化,社会资本的非正式制度属性决定了经济转轨并不是一蹴而就的,在这个过程中,尤其要重视一些正式制度的建立。     

家庭资本：家族企业竞争优势的一个重要源泉

在资源优势理论与企业核心能力理论的基础上，本文着重探讨了，资金、技术、管理等都处于劣势的家族企业获得竞争优势的一个重要源泉是家庭资本(社会资本的一个子集)，家庭资本是家族企业潜在资产，不能直接产生竞争优势，但能创造与企业持续竞争优势更直接有关的资产。本文认为对于这些资产，或者仅仅只有家族企业能获得，或者家族企业比非家族企业更容易获得，因此这些家庭资本成为家族企业的独特资源优势，最终导致家族企业竞争优势的形成。     

News shock,firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory

The literature of expectation-driven business cycles has overlooked the role played by endogenous entry. This paper documents empirically news shock as a major source of fluctuations in firm dynamics and comovement between firm entry and GDP using structural vector auto-regressions. We then develop a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the propagation mechanism assuming fixed operating costs for incumbents and decreasing survival rates for entrants. Our quantitative prediction closely matches the positive comovement between firm entries and core macroeconomic indicators upon news shock. These results remain robust at the sectoral level when the baseline model is extended to a two-sector setup.     

Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.