Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.     

The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations

Drawing on recent empirical research, we study whether the international business cycle, as measured in terms of the output gaps of the G7 countries, has out-of-sample predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. To this end, we use a real-time forecasting approach that accounts for model uncertainty and model instability. We find some evidence that the international business cycle has predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. After accounting for transaction costs, a simple trading rule that builds on real-time out-of-sample forecasts does not lead to a superior performance relative to a buy-and-hold strategy. We also suggest a behavioral-finance approach to study the quality of out-of-sample forecasts from the perspective of forecasters with potentially asymmetric loss functions.     

Product chain collaboration for sustainability: A business case for life cycle management

Life cycle management (LCM) is frequently described as a holistic sustainability perspective along the product chain. It has mainly been a company internal practice. However, recent developments reveal a new type of LCM where companies collaborate in product‐chain‐specific initiatives. This raises questions concerning why corporations extend “corporate LCM” toward “product chain LCM”. Here, we explore rationales and challenges for corporations engaging in one such coalition: The Sustainable Transport Initiative. The study covers five companies in different product chain positions and practitioners in different corporate functions. The results show a broad range of rationales for engaging in product chain LCM, related both to self‐interest and a shared interest in the product chain. The importance of the “business case,” both for the individual companies and the product chain, is identified. The importance of sustainability managers as actors and as facilitators in discussions between managers from different corporate functions is also identified.     

Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model

This paper develops a three-sector quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for some of the salient business cycle properties concerning residential investment and house prices. We depart from the traditional Real Business Cycle setup by incorporating monetary frictions and credit market activities into the model economy. The model generates the high volatility of residential investment and hours worked in the house investment goods producing sector, as well as the procyclicality of house prices. The lead-lag pattern of house investment also roughly conforms with the data. We find that monetary policy and nominal interest rates play a special role in the determination of house prices. Money shocks generate remarkably volatile residential investment and house prices.     

The more,the merrier: Performance effects of cash over the business cycle

This paper adds to the recent interest in the link between cash and firm performance, by studying how this relationship varies across boom- and bust cycles. We use data of Norwegian firms from a broad range of sectors in the period 2005–2015, and both replicate and extend previous findings on the relationship between cash and performance over the business cycle. We find that i) cash has a positive, but weakly diminishing effect on operational firm performance (ROA) throughout the entire sample period, and ii) that the curvilinear relationship between cash and firm performance is the most pronounced in the pre-recession years, while it is virtually linearly positive in recessions and post-recession periods. We conclude that cash indeed has an impact on firms’ operational performance, and especially so in recessionary times.     

社会资本与经济转轨

社会资本既具有非正式制度的属性,同时也具有组织的属性,它能够给处于其中的人带来收益。本文认为,社会资本可分为人格化的社会资本和非人格化的社会资本,而经济转轨就是从人格化的社会资本向非人格化的社会资本的转化,社会资本的非正式制度属性决定了经济转轨并不是一蹴而就的,在这个过程中,尤其要重视一些正式制度的建立。     

Can indeterminacy resolve the cross-country correlation puzzle?

Are productivity shocks the only driving force of international business fluctuations? In this paper I argue that another source of uncertainty—changes in market expectations or ‘sunspots’ – is also important. One major shortcoming of existing IRBC models is the ‘cross-country correlation puzzle’: models tend to generate cross-country consumption correlations that are too high and output, investment and employment correlations that are too low when compared to the data. I show that with empirically supported level of increasing returns, an otherwise standard model possesses multiple, indeterminate convergent paths to the steady state, which allow for sunspots to influence the economy. The model displays time series properties that in many ways match the data better than the conventional model. It is especially successful in generating realistic consumption and output correlations.     

A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our results suggest that the dynamics between the current account and budget account variables are affected by macroeconomic activity: twin deficits are only the case in the upper regime, when the economy operates above its potential level. When the economy is in the lower regime, budget and trade deficits show divergent movements. The results are consistent with Kim and Roubini (2008), indicating that the divergence of fiscal balance and current account might be explained by the cyclical fluctuations of output.     

Labor and investment frictions in a real business cycle model

This paper develops a prototype real business cycle model in which labor and investment frictions may compete directly with technology shocks in accounting for fluctuations in the postwar US economy. Using Ireland's [2004a. A method for taking models to the data. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28, 1205–1226] methodology, we establish that both types of friction are quantitatively important. Technology shocks still explain a substantial fraction of the fluctuations in aggregate output, as the baseline real business cycle model predicts. Formal hypothesis tests suggest that changes in the recurrence of shocks, frictions, and structural parameters all play a role in accounting for the shift in the time series properties of the data between the periods before and after 1980.     

Search in the product market and the real business cycle

Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer mark ups, which depend on firms' relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclude from the simulation exercise that incorporating product market search structure and shocks improve the standard real business cycle model to reproduce US business cycle fluctuations.     

News shock,firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory

The literature of expectation-driven business cycles has overlooked the role played by endogenous entry. This paper documents empirically news shock as a major source of fluctuations in firm dynamics and comovement between firm entry and GDP using structural vector auto-regressions. We then develop a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the propagation mechanism assuming fixed operating costs for incumbents and decreasing survival rates for entrants. Our quantitative prediction closely matches the positive comovement between firm entries and core macroeconomic indicators upon news shock. These results remain robust at the sectoral level when the baseline model is extended to a two-sector setup.     

Solving the multi-country real business cycle model using a Smolyak-collocation method

We describe a sparse-grid collocation method to compute recursive solutions of dynamic economies with a sizable number of state variables. We show how powerful this method can be in applications by computing the non-linear recursive solution of an international real business cycle model with a substantial number of countries, complete insurance markets and frictions that impede frictionless international capital flows. In this economy, the aggregate state vector includes the distribution of world capital across different countries as well as the exogenous country-specific technology shocks. We use the algorithm to efficiently solve models with up to 10 countries (i.e., up to 20 continuous-valued state variables).     

社会资本与家族企业人力资源管理

人力资源管理对家族企业的竞争和发展起着决定性作用,然而,我国家族企业在人力资源管理上却问题重重,很大程度上制约了家族企业的发展。本文从社会资本的角度来研究家族企业中的人力资源问题,首先阐述了家族企业的社会资本特点,然后指出家族企业人力资源管理问题的罪魁祸首是其社会资本的局限性,最后本文从社会资本视角提出了家族企业人力资源管理问题的解决方案。     

New business creation and regional development: Enhancing resource acquisition in areas of social deprivation

Over 7 years, the UK-Government funded an entrepreneurship scholarship scheme in the most deprived regions of England. This study examines how, for 211 of these nascent entrepreneurs, bootstrapping compensated for their inability to obtain debt or equity funding. Results show that social capital (strong, weak and brokerage ties) is important for access to bootstrapped resources. While human capital, including previous business experience and financial skills, are linked to joint-utilisation approaches to bootstrapping, higher financial investment is linked to owner- and payment-related approaches. A key outcome for developing appropriate regional policy is that ‘brokers’ provide a link between socially disadvantaged entrepreneurs and external resources.     

产融结合视角下的资本形成与经济增长

本文基于新古典经济增长模型,研究资本形成促进经济增长的内在机制。国外资本、金融资本与真实资本三者之间要适度发展,资本形成不足或过度均会对经济增长产生不利影响;如果资本的形成过程和转换机制由市场主导,偏离适度的资本在市场机制下就会自动恢复到适度状态,从而促进经济增长。对国外资本、金融资本、真实资本与经济增长之间关系的实证检验发现,金融资本深化率和国外资本与开放经济条件下社会总资本比率的提高,以及金融结构与融资结构的改善对经济增长有正向促进作用,而真实资本深化率和金融资本与真实资本比率的提高对经济增长却呈现出负相关关系。     

风险资本与风险资本市场

风险资本与风险资本市场存在着相互促进的关系。一个发达活跃的风险资本市场能够极大地刺激风险的扩张。流入高新技术企业的风险资本越多,成功上市的企业就越多,风险资本市场的功能发挥就越强,对社会资金的吸引力就越大,由此推动风险投资事业的发展。本文通过对风险资本与风险资本市场的关系分析,来论证我国二板市场的建立。     

The business cycle model with a unique stable limit cycle

This paper provides the mathematical foundation to the long-standing academic belief that Goodwin's 1951 nonlinear business cycle model has a unique stable limit cycle. In spite of the asymmetric nonlinearity of investment function, the model has certainly a unique stable limit cycle in an economically meaningful region. Once solution paths start from any initial point in the region, they all tend to the limit cycle without escaping from the region or hitting the ceiling or floor of investment during a transition period. The structural stability of the model prevents the limit cycle from vanishing in the face of small perturbations.     

建筑施工领域资本的非良性循环、成因及对策

提出了当前中国建筑施工领域的资本循环存在的问题,利用马克思的资本循环理论,对问题的原因进行了分析,并针对问题的成因提出了相应的对策.     

家庭资本：家族企业竞争优势的一个重要源泉

在资源优势理论与企业核心能力理论的基础上，本文着重探讨了，资金、技术、管理等都处于劣势的家族企业获得竞争优势的一个重要源泉是家庭资本(社会资本的一个子集)，家庭资本是家族企业潜在资产，不能直接产生竞争优势，但能创造与企业持续竞争优势更直接有关的资产。本文认为对于这些资产，或者仅仅只有家族企业能获得，或者家族企业比非家族企业更容易获得，因此这些家庭资本成为家族企业的独特资源优势，最终导致家族企业竞争优势的形成。     

The business cycle in the G-7 economies

In this paper the Hodrick–Prescott filter is used to decompose real GDP for the G7 countries into cyclical and trend components. The resulting series of cyclical components are then examined for static relationships, using correlations and graphs; long-run relationships using autoregressive-distributed lag models; and short-run relationships, using error–correction models. The main result is that the patterns of cyclical behaviour changed following the oil price shocks in the 1970s. Since 1980, cyclical fluctuations have been smaller as a result of a decline in synchronisation of the cycles in the G7. Two separate cycles seem to be developing since 1990. One is for Germany, Italy and France, whilst the other is for the US, UK and Canada. Within each of these groups there are both long-run and short-run relationships between the cyclical components of GDP.