中国分行业资本存量估算：1990~2014年

通过借鉴中国资本存量已有研究文献的成果,以细分行业差别化的折旧率估算为基础,通过分析投资结构和折旧率的关系,估算出第二、第三产业和总量的时变折旧率,系统地估算出1990~2014年总量、三次产业和细分行业的资本存量。估算结果及分析表明:由于投资结构的变化,总量、第三产业折旧率呈下降趋势,第二产业折旧率呈先上升再下降趋势;目前在我国,“过度投资”和“投资不足”并存,且“过度投资”的是资本效率比较低的行业,“投资不足”的是资本效率比较高的行业。解决“投资不足”问题的关键是打破行业垄断,尤其是行政垄断,引入市场竞争机制。     

Endogenous capital utilization in a short-run production model: Theory and an empiral application

In order to be consistent with production theory, empirical factor demand analyses must transform capital stock data into information about the flows of capital services derived from the stock. This requires information about the utilization rate which is, however, not generally available. This paper develops and estimates a model of a capital using firm that one can implement using observable data. Capital utilization and depreciation are endogenous and are determined by profit maximization. The consistency of the model with the data is tested by checking whether the estimated parameters satisfy the regularity conditions imposed by the theory. The validity of the customary specification of an exogenous, price-independent rate of depreciation is also tested.     

The role of fixed capital depreciations for TFP growth: evidence from firm level panel data estimates

The role of accounting depreciation rates and the stocks of fixed capital has been well established in the literature. By exploring available evidence on the value of fixed assets in certain countries, this paper makes use of firm level data on fixed capital depreciations over the period 1990–2008 from a group of OECD countries along with panel data estimations to investigate their role for total factor productivity (TFP) as it is defined through growth accounting, since different capital depreciation profiles imply different rates of capital accumulation and, therefore, different estimates of TFP. The empirical results indicate a positive relationship between the two variables under study.     

Depreciation, Maintenance, and Housing Prices

This paper investigates the effect of homeowner maintenance and improvements on the depreciation rate for housing and on house price indexes. We examine three specifications of a hedonic house price model: one that includes a variable for age, as a proxy for depreciation, and an age–maintenance interaction variable; one that considers depreciation but ignores maintenance; and one that ignores both depreciation and maintenance. The remarks of the listing agent as to the property's condition is our proxy for the level of maintenance characterizing the home. In our sample, we find that poorly maintained homes depreciate at a much faster rate than do homes with average maintenance, and that well-maintained homes depreciate somewhat more slowly. Omitting maintenance from the variable specification has little impact on hedonic house price indexes constructed with our data, but failing to consider dwelling age imparts a significant and growing downward bias to the indexes. Monte Carlo simulations investigating various data specifications support our empirical findings.     

Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags,Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth

The search for an appropriate methodology to investigate the relation between R&D investment, knowledge stock and productivity growth is the main purpose of the paper. In analogy with physical assets, we present a model of knowledge capital formation which allows the calculation of the relevant user cost, as well. The proposed model accumulates R&D investment based on a stochastic gestation lag and a geometric depreciation of the stock. The basic parameters underlying the lag structure differ according to the types of research expenditure. The approach is applied to public R&D investment in Italian agriculture; the results provide interesting information about the economic structure of public research effort in Italian agriculture and plausible estimates of its internal rate of return.     

Measuring the natural rate of interest: A note on transitory shocks

We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the US economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the literature.     

An evaluation of French concession accounting

The franchising of public service activities (concessions de service public) has traditionally played a significant role in infrastructural provision in France, notably in the public utility sectors of electricity, gas and water. Concession accounting is troubled by two major problems. First, operating capability maintenance (OCM) is not achieved, primarily because of the failure to tackle the issue of backlog depreciation. In sectors with high capital intensity, long asset lives and marked technological change, the restrictive legislation pertaining to asset revaluation and, hence, depreciation, aggravates this OCM problem. Second, financial capital maintenance (FCM) is not achieved, particularly when amortization of the enterprise's investment in those concession assets which are surrendered to public authorities (I'amortissement de caducité) is abandoned. This evaluation of French practice is policy relevant for two distinct reasons. First, given the significance of concessions in France, it is important to establish a coherent translation of the principles of the Plan comptable général 1982 to concession assets; this will not be achieved by the proposals of the 1992 Committee on Concessions, whose implementation would represent a retreat from economic relevance. Second, the concession model is experiencing both a revival in francophone Africa and extension to the United Kingdom.     

Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence

Optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one-sector models of economic growth. The relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state. Cross-country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates, even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions. Finally, by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization, standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady-state equilibrium.     

House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance

My objective in this paper is to estimate different depreciation rates of house prices depending on the level of maintenance of the property and the location of the property. I do this by supplementing transaction price data with owner information about level of maintenance. The result indicates that the level of maintenance has a substantial impact on the price level. Since maintenance offsets some of the physical deterioration of the property, the depreciation rate will be lowered by maintenance, ceteris paribus. To be able to estimate maintenance effects on depreciation rates, I isolated the interaction effect between the level of maintenance and the age of the property to allow for the fact that maintenance has an impact on the effective age of the property. In this study, I separate maintenance into indoor and outdoor maintenance levels (or absence of maintenance).My results show that the depreciation rates are significantly different for a maintained property and for a property that is not maintained. The price difference between a 40-year-old property (built in 1960) and maintained both indoors and outdoors and a property of the same age that is not maintained is about 13% (−10% compared to −23% in total age effect). The absence of outdoor maintenance has more impact on price depreciation rates.     

人力资本异质性与地区经济增长——一个实证分析

运用中国省区面板数据,以受教育程度的高低作为划分异质人力资本的唯一标准,对东、中、西三大地区高级人力资本及相关变量进行分析,研究三大地区高级人力资本在生产过程中的作用和贡献,以及与经济系统之间的相互影响。研究表明:三地区人力资本积累和物质资本积累之间的比例α越大,高级劳动者所占比例n2也越大;三地区物质资本折旧率越高,高级劳动者所占比例n2也越大。物质资本折旧率增大时,不利于物质资本积累,而有利于生产高级劳动者;三地区为形成单位高级劳动者所需的费用ρ在2000年—2009年间变化趋势基本相似。     

The estimation of net depreciation rates on housing

The net depreciation of a house exclusive of maintenance is derived in the context of an intertemporal model. Estimates are presented for aggregation in depreciation and other restrictions. On the evidence, geometric net depreciation on houses-cum-land at 1% per annum appears to obtain.     

The half-life of knowledge and strategic human capital

The strategic human capital literature has largely overlooked the fact that knowledge stocks depreciate and that the speed of depreciation varies across settings and over time. We argue that the value of knowledge has a half-life and that numerous core predictions from the conventional human capital analysis change as the half-life shortens. This applies to the ability to extract rents from human capital, employee mobility patterns, employees' disincentive to invest in firm-specific human capital, and more. We also show that, at the limit, a sufficiently rapid rate of knowledge depreciation eliminates the importance of the distinction between general and firm-specific human capital for appropriation and employee mobility.     

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.     

The Economic Incentives and Consequences of Land Write-Ups

Firms in Taiwan are allowed to write up their assets when certain conditions are met. Tax benefits from higher depreciation expenses are granted to encourage corporate investment and capital maintenance. Land write-ups, unlike write-ups of depreciable assets, do not generate tax benefits. This paper investigates the economic incentives for firms in Taiwan to write up their land, and the security price reactions to land write-ups.
An analysis of annual financial data for the manufacturing firms listed in the Taiwan Exchange between 1982 and 1992 shows that firms write up their land by a larger amount when raising capital. Firms with relatively higher debt-asset ratios write up their land by a larger amount. Furthermore, the capital raised was invested in working capital or operational assets, but not in securities of other firms. The results suggest that land write-ups may reduce firms' difficulties in raising external capital, and may enhance corporate investments. The result from capital market analysis offers weak evidence that land write-ups are positively correlated with the market adjusted rate of returns of a firm's stock.     

Capital utilization and capital accumulation: Theory and evidence

A firm may acquire additional capital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital. The margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital, labour and their rates of utilization. A direct measure of capital utilization-the work week of capital-is incorporated into the theory and estimates. The estimates imply that capital stock is costly to adjust while the work week of capital is essentially costless to adjust. The estimated response of the capital stock to changes in its price and in the required rate of return is more rapid than found in other estimates.     

Off the radar: Factors behind the growth of shadow banking in Europe

This paper uses novel data from the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem on non-bank financial intermediation to investigate the potential factors of shadow banking growth for a panel of twenty-four countries in the European Union (EU). We find that the EU shadow banking system is highly procyclical and positively related to increasing demand by long-term institutional investors and to more stringent capital regulation. We show that individual entities in the shadow banking system can act as both complements and substitutes to traditional banking. In addition, we estimate four country-specific models using a Bayesian estimation method. We supplement the panel model estimates, which serve as a priori information, with data from a specific economy. We assert that, although some shadow banking determinants are uniform across countries, other may have heterogeneous effects across countries because of country-specific characteristics.     

企业技术型人力资本贬值风险研究

通过对技术型人力资本贬值成因进行分析,结合技术型人力资本特征和价值,建立了企业技术型人力资本贬值风险评估的指标体系。最后利用风险辐射图,简洁、直观地帮助企业找出风险的关键所在,从而利于企业进行风险规避。     

中国的资本存量与投资效率

本文通过吸收资本存量（K）研究的已有成果,改进了K估算中经济折旧率为常数的假定,采用时变经济折旧率重新估算了1952～2010 年全国的资本存量。我们发现,以本文测算的时变经济折旧代替以往常用的固定折旧率,同时采用永续盘存法的原始公式代替常用的简化公式,有助于提高K估值的准确性。在此基础上,本文估算了宏观资本回报率,与多数文献所认为的宏观资本回报率具有长期下降趋势不同,我们发现1978~2007年中国宏观资本回报率呈长期上升趋势。     

The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock

This article reconsiders the Hicksian multiplier – accelerator model with ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling’. The new thrust is that these constraints are tied to the actual stock of capital, the floor to the depreciation on this stock, the ceiling to capital as a limiting production factor according to the fixed proportions technology that also underlies the principle of acceleration. For capital formation just the Hicksian investment theory is used. The result is one unified model creating economic growth and growth rate cycles.     

Understanding spot and forward exchange rate regressions

Using the Kalman filter, we obtain maximum likelihood estimates of a permanent–transitory components model for log spot and forward dollar prices of the pound, the franc, and the yen. This simple parametric model is useful in understanding why the forward rate may be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate even though an increase in the forward premium predicts a dollar appreciation. Our estimates of the expected excess return on short-term dollar-denominated assets are persistent and reasonable in magnitude. They also exhibit sign fluctuations and negative covariance with the estimated expected depreciation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.