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1.
We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers׳ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare. Optimal inflation forecast contracts stipulate high rewards for accurate forecasts. 相似文献
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This paper evaluates the conduct of monetary policy in Hungary using standard Taylor rules as well as extended rules that incorporate real exchange rate effects. Moreover, we explicitly consider the impact of future euro area entry by estimating instrument rules that permit an influence from Maastricht Treaty inflation requirements via the estimation of Markov switching models as well as by estimating a differential rule vis-à-vis the existing euro area. Lastly, the paper also considers the impact on policy rules from the large data revision that affects real exchange rate and output estimates. I find that interest rate setting behavior in Hungary does not resemble that of the euro area. Also, counterfactual experiments reveal that the potential macroeconomic costs of entry into the euro area sooner rather than later may be lower than if membership in the single currency area is delayed beyond 2008. 相似文献
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《Economic Systems》2020,44(4):100819
We examine the FED’s monetary policy rule with financial stability considerations and under asymmetry. We use the National Financial Conditions Index constructed by the Chicago FED in order to test whether financial stability concerns enter monetary policy formulations in the US. We model nonlinearity in monetary policy by a Markov regime-switching model. The results show that the monetary policy implemented by the FED can be characterized as a two-state Markov process and financial instability significantly increases the likelihood of regime-switching from a “tranquil” to a “distressed” regime. Moreover, the likelihood of a switch in the FED’s monetary policy regime between tranquil and distressed seems to increase when a certain threshold level of the financial conditions index is reached. Finally, our results seem to be robust to alternative specifications of the reaction function and different forms of non-linearity. 相似文献
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We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates, either as part of inflation targeting or in the form of forward guidance. We also summarize both actual central bank communication about future policy rates and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these types of communication. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theory and practice of forward guidance, as theory assumes commitment on the part of the central bank, while in practice central banks generally do not commit. Future theoretical research on forward guidance should therefore take the absence of commitment by central banks into account. 相似文献
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Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a discretionary era from 1974 to 1985, a rules-based era from 1985 to 2000, and a discretionary era from 2001 to 2013. With the modified Taylor rule, the rules-based era extends further into the 1970s and there is an additional rules-based period starting in 2006. We calculate various loss functions and find that economic performance is uniformly better during rules-based eras than during discretionary eras, and that the original Taylor rule provides the largest loss during discretionary periods relative to loss during rules-based periods. 相似文献
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本文认为,注册会计师行业要赢得并保持社会公众信任,唯一的方法就是遵循高质量的职业道德准则。诚信、透明、专业化的核心价值观念,构成了CPA行业职业道德框架体系的基本架构,三者缺一不可。 相似文献
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We assess the role of monetary policy news shocks in the context of a medium scale DSGE model estimated on US data. We estimate several versions of the model and find decisive evidence in favour of the inclusion of monetary policy news shocks over a two-quarter horizon. According to our results, monetary policy news shocks account for a non-negligible fraction of the variance of real variables, especially at shorter forecast horizons. Further, we document that the importance of monetary policy news shocks goes beyond what was observed in recent years. The historical importance of monetary policy news shocks dates back to the 1999–2006 period when the official FOMC statements provided information about both the current policy setting and the expected future policy path. We also show that adding monetary policy news shocks to the model does not lead to identification problems. 相似文献
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This paper studies the equilibrium determinacy properties of a simple interest rate rule in a small open economy subject to currency substitution (i.e., the use of a foreign currency for domestic transactions) and risk premia on foreign borrowing. It shows that if currencies are substitute in the provision of liquidity services the rule׳s response to inflation has to be sufficiently above unity for the equilibrium to be locally determinate. This reinforced Taylor principle requirement appears to be more binding in economies characterized by a larger elasticity of currency substitution, more debt-elastic country risk premia, and intermediate degrees of dollarization in transactions. 相似文献
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This special issue of Economic Systems includes seven papers about various aspects of monetary convergence to the Euro. It includes both policy discussion papers examining a wide range of issues and empirical studies evaluating specific areas of monetary convergence. From a policy strategy view, the selected papers examine the ways of combining the two key objectives of monetary convergence, i.e., price stability and exchange rate stability. In addition, the papers analyze the interplay between monetary policies and financial market stability. The findings provide new insights on monetary policy transmission channels, market equilibrium exchange rates, interest rates pass through effects, the importance of real relative to nominal convergence, and other intricacies encountered on the passage toward the Euro. 相似文献
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This paper generalizes the standard forward method of recursive substitution to a general class of linear rational expectations models with potentially multiple fundamental solutions. It is shown that the existence and uniqueness of the well-known forward solution are preserved in a general context. We also propose a key property embedded in the forward solution - the no-bubble condition - as an economically sensible solution refinement in the class of fundamental solutions. In the literature, the no-bubble condition has been assumed to rule out non-fundamental bubble solutions. We show that the forward solution is the only rational expectations equilibrium satisfying the no-bubble condition and consequently, it is the most relevant fundamental solution within the class of fundamental equilibria. Several economic examples are provided where the fundamental solutions obtained by other solution methods and refined by other solution selection criteria violate the no-bubble condition. 相似文献
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Communication by central banks has two goals to fulfill: One is to be accountable and transparent to the public for its policy. The other is to make monetary policy by guiding expectations as effective as possible. Diversity of views inside the bank is instrumental for appropriate monetary policy decisions, but creates a tremendous challenge for communication. Central banks dispose of a variety of communication tools. Forward guidance seen as a revolution in central banks׳ communication raises new questions. Not maximum, but optimal transparency should be the final stage to strive for. 相似文献
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精确制导武器在现代战争中扮演着越来越重要的作用,但高昂的成本阻碍了其大规模应用。本文根据这一情况提出了一种基于捷联式导引技术的制导系统方案。本方案由捷联导引头和一套惯性组合器件(IMU)组成,采用制导与控制一体化技术。本文重点对导引律和控制系统进行了详细研究,并建立了相应的数学模型。通过仿真实验表明,该控制方案能够有效对弹丸进行控制,其控制精度符合制导系统要求。 相似文献
13.
Over the past twenty years, monetary policy rules have played an increasingly central role in disucssions of monetary policy strategy and tactics at the Federal Reserve. This represented a sea change in thinking about monetary policy in terms of a systematic startagey rather than a sequence of policy decisions. 相似文献
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In the presence of capital accumulation the Taylor principle may not be sufficient for determinacy under reasonable parameter values. In this paper I consider a two-sector extension of the models used in the existing literature. I show that what matters for whether the Taylor principle is sufficient is the price stickiness of investment goods. Price stickiness of consumer goods on the other hand matters very little. The Taylor principle is sufficient, I find, unless there is considerable price stickiness in the investment-goods sector. 相似文献
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对政府执行力测度的方法研究是将其应用于实践的重要前提。针对现有方法的不足,本文提出了DELPHI-TOPSIS综合分析法。该方法对准则层指标的权重给出了统一的赋值原则,建立各可行方案之间具有可比性的数量关系,以最优理想解和负理想解两个基准为依据,精确反映各评价方案之间的差距。在实证研究中,运用DELPHI-TOPSIS法对我国31个基层政府的财政透明度执行力情况进行测量,数值结果表明本文方法的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
17.
Michael A. Clemens 《Journal of economic surveys》2017,31(1):326-342
The welcome rise of replication tests in economics has not been accompanied by a consensus standard for determining what constitutes a replication. A discrepant replication, in current usage of the term, can signal anything from an unremarkable disagreement over methods to scientific incompetence or misconduct. This paper proposes a standard for classifying one study as a replication of some other study. It is a standard that places the burden of proof on a study to demonstrate that it should have obtained identical results to the original, a conservative standard that is already used implicitly by many researchers. It contrasts this standard with decades of unsuccessful attempts to harmonize terminology, and argues that many prominent results described as replication tests should not be described as such. Adopting a conservative standard like this one can improve incentives for researchers, encouraging more and better replication tests. 相似文献
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This study investigates the causes of forward discount bias in 27 forward rates for the period 2007–2016. First, it analyzes the forward discount bias across two horizons: 3-month and 12-month; across two sub-periods: financial crisis and non-crisis; and across two country groups: developed and developing. The regression results show that forward discount bias is present and significant, but has become smaller compared to many earlier studies. In general, 12-month forward discount is less biased compared to the 3-month. The study confirms that during the non-crisis period, developing country forward discount is less biased compared to the developed country across both the horizons. The crisis period has impacted the magnitude of the bias. For the developed country, the bias is higher during the crisis period compared to the non-crisis period at the 3-month horizon but lower at the 12-month horizon. Developing country forward discount is less biased during the crisis period compared to the non-crisis period at the 3-month horizon, but slightly more biased at the 12-month horizon. Second, the study decomposes the bias into two components: irrational expectations and risk premium. The results show that both irrationality and time varying risk premium are present in the bias. However, the irrationality component plays a minor role in the 3-month forward discount bias, but plays a major role in the 12-month forward discount bias. Irrationality is high during the crisis period for both the country groups. The risk premium component of the bias is highly significant across both the periods, country groups and horizons, and thus, plays a major role in the overall bias. Further, the non-parametric tests of comparison of statistical significance of the beta coefficient values between country groups, periods and horizons indicate that many differences are statistically significant supporting our conclusions. 相似文献