Improving Incentives in Unemployment Insurance: A Review of Recent Research

Abstract.  This paper provides a review of the recent literature on how incentives in unemployment insurance can be improved. We are particularly concerned with three instruments, i.e. the duration of benefit payments (or more generally the time sequencing of benefits), monitoring in conjunction with sanctions, and workfare. Our reading of the theoretical literature is that the case for imposing a penalty on less active job search is fairly solid. A growing number of empirical studies, including randomized experiments, are in line with this conclusion.     

Benefit shifting: The case of sickness insurance for the unemployed

This study describes the probability of transition from unemployment with unemployment insurance (UI) to sickness insurance (SI), using a proportional hazard duration model and a large register-based dataset. The combination of limited UI duration and the fact that SI rights do not depend on remaining UI, creates an incentive to use SI to effectively extend UI. The separate effects of elapsed unemployment duration and of UI duration on hazard rates are identified through a reform of the UI system. The estimated hazard rate for transition from unemployment to SI increases sharply the last months before UI exhaustion. The spikes are larger for diagnosis for mental illness, and vary across individuals, but are present for all groups and all diagnoses.     

Housing tenure and labor market impacts: The search goes on

We develop two search-theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the Oswald hypothesis, the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes, and compare their predictions to three extant theories. The five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels. Using a suitable instrumental variable strategy, we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions. We find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed, they also have lower wages, all else equal, compared to renters. In addition, higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages. The outcome of a horserace between our new search-theoretic models is mixed—the wage-posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes. Overall, we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership. Because this is the case, regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work. And while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters, from the viewpoint of society, higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production, among other benefits.     

Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance

Existing studies suggest that reforms that reduce the generosity of the unemployment benefits should lower unemployment. Despite the large number of such reforms implemented in Europe in the past decades, evidence from various data sources shows very little correlation with the evolution of unemployment. This paper suggests that the scant success of these labour market reforms can be explained by the interactions between unemployment insurance and other social assistance programmes. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel shows that recipients of unemployment insurance who are also eligible for other welfare schemes are indeed less sensitive to changes in the level and the duration of their benefits.     

Labor market search and capital accumulation: Some analytical results

This paper integrates labor market search into an intertemporal utility maximization framework and analytically solves for equilibrium dynamics. The integrated model improves upon a neoclassical model by generating the realistic hump-shaped response of output to a productivity shock and the counterclockwise dynamics of job vacancies and unemployment around the Beveridge curve. In contrast to a standard search model, our model endogenizes agents' reservation wage as the marginal rate of substitution between leisure and consumption, through which agents' intertemporal consumption decision directly affects the labor market behavior. As a result, even a permanent productivity shock generates non-monotonic dynamics in employment.     

The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles

This paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly: fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job-finding rate and the past unemployment rate. We show this analytically for a special case of the model. We then calibrate the model to U.S. data. For the calibrated model, too, business cycles cause higher average unemployment; the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than Lucas's (1987) estimate. The cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is, or, equivalently, the lower is the disutility of work. The ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers' skills depreciate during unemployment.     

Job search monitoring intensity, unemployment exit and job entry: Quasi-experimental evidence from the UK

Because unemployment benefit reforms tend to package together changes to job search requirements, monitoring and assistance, few existing studies have been able to empirically isolate the effects of job search monitoring intensity on the behaviour of unemployment benefit claimants. This paper exploits periods where monitoring has been temporarily withdrawn during a series of Benefit Office refurbishments — with the regime otherwise unchanged — to allow such identification. During these periods of zero monitoring the hazard rates for exits from claimant unemployment and for job entry both fall.     

LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DESIGN

With the emergence of the Great Recession unemployment insurance (UI) is once again at the heart of the policy debate. In this paper, we review the recent theoretical and empirical evidence on the labor market effects of UI design. We also discuss policy issues related to UI design, including the structure of benefits, the role of liquidity constraints and the pros and cons of a UI system in which the generosity of UI benefits is varying over the business cycle. Finally, we identify potential areas of future research.     

Unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model with worker moral hazard

This paper studies the role of unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model that features an efficiency-wage view of the labor market based on unobservable effort. The risk-sharing mechanism central to the model permits, but does not force, agents to be fully insured. Structural parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure on US data. Formal hypothesis tests reveal that the data favor a model in which agents only partially insure each other against employment risk. The results also show that limited risk sharing helps the model capture many salient properties of the business cycle that a restricted version with full insurance fails to explain.     

Household search and health insurance coverage

Health insurance in the United States is typically acquired through an employer-sponsored program. Often employees offered employer-provided health insurance have the option to extend coverage to their spouse and dependents. We investigate the implications of the “publicness” of health insurance coverage for the labor market careers of spouses. The theoretical innovations in the paper are to extend the standard partial–partial equilibrium labor market search model to a multiple searcher setting with the inclusion of multi-attribute job offers, with some of the attributes treated as public goods within the household. The model is estimated using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) using a Method of Simulated Moments (MSM) estimator. We demonstrate how previous estimates of the marginal willingness to pay (MWP) for health insurance based on cross-sectional linear regression estimators may be seriously biased due to the presence of dynamic selection effects and misspecification of the decision-making unit.     

失业保险,道德风险与激励机制研究

在简化的Lucas—Prescott（1974）的模型基础上,本文说明了失业保险中失业保险金对搜寻努力存在着负效用,并分别就无失业保险、完全失业保险、不完全失业保险、失业保险金过低等四种情况,分析了道德风险的产生机制以及克服道德风险的激励机制。针对失业保险中的道德风险问题,本文提出了相应的政策建议：失业期内单调下降的失业保险金支付方法,征收失业保险税或奖励再就业,对失业工人的搜寻努力进行监督和惩罚,执行劳动福利计划等。     

Urban search models under high-relocation costs. Theory and application to spatial mismatch

We develop a search-matching model in which mobility costs are so high that it is too costly for workers to relocate when a change in their employment status occurs. We show that, in equilibrium, wages increase with distance to jobs and commuting costs because firms need to compensate the transportation cost difference between the employed and unemployed workers at each location in the city. We also show that the equilibrium land rent is negatively affected by the unemployment benefit because an increase in the latter induce firms to create less jobs, which, in turn, reduces the competition in the land market. We then use this model to provide a mechanism for the observed spatial mismatch between where black workers live and where jobs are. We finally show that a transportation policy consisting in subsidizing the commuting costs of black workers can increase job creation and reduce unemployment if the level of the subsidy is set at a sufficiently high level.     

Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model

This paper develops a three-sector quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for some of the salient business cycle properties concerning residential investment and house prices. We depart from the traditional Real Business Cycle setup by incorporating monetary frictions and credit market activities into the model economy. The model generates the high volatility of residential investment and hours worked in the house investment goods producing sector, as well as the procyclicality of house prices. The lead-lag pattern of house investment also roughly conforms with the data. We find that monetary policy and nominal interest rates play a special role in the determination of house prices. Money shocks generate remarkably volatile residential investment and house prices.     

Testing Granger Causality in the presence of threshold effects

This paper proposes a Granger Causality test allowing for threshold effects. The proposed test can be conducted on the basis of the threshold autoregressive distributed lag model or the augmented logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. The proposed test is applied to the U.S. civilian unemployment rate, and it is shown that real investment, real GDP and real interest rate are helpful for improving the in-sample fit of unemployment.     

Employment relations and labour market indicators in ten industrialized market economies: Comparative statistics

The acceleration of the internationalisation of business and the division of labour has been led by improvements in technologies and communications, decreased barriers to trade, increased competition and the growth of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Employers, government organizations and unions, practitioners and academics are increasingly concerned with locating comparable statistics. This article reviews employment relations and labour market data for ten major industrialized market economies (IMEs) and discusses some of the challenges in the measurement and interpretation of such data. For a fuller discussion of such data, and of the ten IME, see Greg J. Bamber and Russell D. Lansbury (eds) International and Comparative Employment Relations 3rd edn, to be published by Sage, London, and Allen & Unwin, Sydney, in mid-1998.