The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence

This study examines the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When Will the Oil Run Out?

Claims that the world will shortly run out of commercially viable oil reserves are disputed by Douglas Harvey, an economist with long experience of the industry, who condemns the doomsayers for ignoring the role of price in disciplining demand and spurring supply. He concludes his close analysis with the hopeful prospect that oil will last at least until the middle of the 21st century.     

基于循环经济的矿产资源价格经济学分析及创新研究

矿产资源具有不可再生性,其价格的合理性是发展循环经济的前提。然而,当前矿产资源价格机制存在很多缺陷,导致价格与市场严重脱节,且与再利用资源比价不合理,形成了循环经济发展的资源价格制度障碍。建议通过政府的调节、健全市场化的资源定价机制、完善资源价格形成机制等制度创新,促使价格能真实地反映资源市场的供求关系、稀缺程度以及造成的生态环境负外部性成本,为循环经济的发展提供资源价格制度保障。     

Reconciling Gray and Hotelling

A bstract .   Early exhaustible resource economics provides an important foundation for recent suggestions that firm-level economic modeling plays a larger role in the analysis of resource scarcity. The lack of empirical support for Hotelling's r -percent rule, introduced in 1931, and recent suggestions that industry behavior may not be reducible to firm behaviors are the primary motivating factors for examining the relative value of Gray's contribution to the field of exhaustible resource economics relative to Hotelling's contribution. Specifically, Gray's papers that appeared in the 1910s provide insight into the heterogeneity of deposits and their spatial dimensions, and offer the possibility that firms will be subject to fixed costs carried over between periods. In this paper, the arguments presented by Gray are formalized in a dynamic model, which allows the differences between Gray's and Hotelling's assumptions to be more fully explored. The results of the paper illustrate that by considering spatially identifiable heterogeneous deposits, fixed costs, and entry costs, in general Hotelling's r -percent rule is not a sufficient condition for firm-level decision making and that firms' extraction behavior cannot be linearly aggregated to describe industry behavior.     

When natural resources run out,market knowledge steps in: Lessons on natural resource deployment from a longitudinal study in a resource-scarce region of Ethiopia

With the increasing scarcity of natural resources, the ability to maintain quality standards during resource-scarce times becomes more critical for business performance. Theories on managing resource scarcity cannot be easily tested in contexts where resources are still abundant. This study therefore turns to an emerging market context in which natural resource availability naturally varies strongly between seasons, namely, that of Ethiopian pastoralists who for many generations learned to adapt to natural resource scarcity. Central to our theory is the natural resource deployment capability, which is the ability of a business to make efficient and effective use of available resources to maintain business performance during resource-scarce times. Using three-wave longitudinal data from 120 pastoral family-based livestock businesses, the study shows that when resources are scarce or extremely scarce, market knowledge helps to better deploy the scarce natural resources, leading to higher product quality. The findings imply that businesses with a better understanding of markets have stronger natural resource deployment capability. The lesson for businesses that are confronted with approaching resource scarcity is therefore to strengthen their ability to deploy resources efficiently and effectively by strengthening their market knowledge in which such capability is rooted.     

浅议工程项目影子价格理论

影子价格是为实现一定的经济发展目标而人为确定的、比市场价格更能反映出资源真实价值、能促进合理利用资源的经济价格,而非真正意义上的市场价格。它不仅能更合理地反映出产品价值,而且还能反映社会劳动消耗、市场的供求关系和资源的稀缺程度,有利于资源的优化配置。影子价格是分析计算项目对国民经济的净贡献,评价项目的经济合理性的重要的参数之一。本文主要阐释了影子价格的概念、类别、选取及计算方法。     

Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?

We study the effects of releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. We show that historically SPR policy interventions, defined as sequences of exogenous SPR shocks during selected periods, have helped stabilize the price of oil. Their effect on the price of oil, however, has been modest. For example, the cumulative effect of the SPR releases after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was a reduction of $2 per barrel in the real price of oil after 7 months. Whereas emergency drawdowns tend to lower the real price of oil, we find that exchanges tend to raise the real price of oil in the long run. We also provide a detailed analysis of the benefits of the 2018 White House proposal to sell off half of the SPR within the next decade. We show that the expected fiscal benefits of this plan are somewhat higher than the revenue of $16.6 billion dollars projected by the White House.     

货币和税收政策对我国住房价格的影响——基于VAR模型的实证研究

基于我国1999-2010年房地产市场季度数据,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR)和向量误差修正模型(VEC),将住房供给和需求同时纳入模型,分析我国利率政策、信贷政策和税收政策对住房价格的影响。结果显示,贷款利率在短期内对住房供给有负效应,但长期效应不明显;贷款规模对住房价格的短期冲击明显,二者之间存在正相关关系;针对保有环节征税可以通过影响住房供给,从而有效抑制住房价格上升。根据我国住房供求特点,应优先选择税收工具,通过促进住房供给实现控制房价的政策目标。     

THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic Quality Decisions under Heterogeneous Resource Endowments

The literature on product competition advocates a differentiation strategy assuming firm homogeneity in resources. However, firm heterogeneity in resource endowments has long been recognized in economics. Merging these two perspectives, we show that the increase in consumer preference for quality leads to firms' aggressive price competition instead of quality differentiation. As consumers look for higher quality, the cost advantage arising from superior resources increases and makes head-to-head competition more profitable than accommodating a less efficient rival. When consumers are highly concerned about quality, even a small resource difference leads a more efficient firm to initiate cutthroat price competition for market dominance.     

Exhaustible Resources in a Dynamic Input–Output Model with ‘Classical’ Features

This paper discusses the problem of exhaustible resources in a dynamic input–output model with ‘classical’ features. Both the quantity side and the price and distribution side are discussed. The argument is developed using the simplifying assump- tions that there is no technical progress and that no new deposits of the exhaustible resources are discovered. To avoid the ' end-of-world’ scenario, it is assumed that there is a ‘backstop technology’: this implies that exhaustible resources are useful but not necessary in the production and reproduction of commodities. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of paths of prices, quantities produced, and stocks of resources converging to the ultralong-period position is determined, provided that the backstop technology exhibits some appropriate properties. In addition, an algorithm to determine these paths is suggested. A numerical example illustrates the findings.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interest rate dynamics and volatility transmission in the European short term interest rate market

This paper investigates the price and volatility relationship in European short-term interest rate markets. Cointegration analysis is used to analyse the long and short run relationship and a GARCH BEKK model is estimated to analyse the volatility transmission between the markets. The stability of the long run relationship is also examined using Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66(1),47–78, 1998, J Appl Econ 18(1):1–22, 2003) structural break methodology. The results show that the relationship between the EURIBOR spot deposit rate and the EURIBOR future contract has changed significantly since 2001 and several structural breaks are present in the 13 year sample period. During periods where there is a long run relationship present the spot deposit rate generally leads the future rate in price discovery. In the short run there is bi-directional causality present between the markets. There is also significant evidence of volatility transmission from the spot market to the futures market throughout the sample period.     

Herding,trend chasing and market volatility

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuous-time to show that, although trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and to volatility clustering, their impacts are different. The fluctuations of the market price and return and the level of the significant autocorrelations (ACs) of the absolute and squared returns increase with the intensities of herding and trend chasing based on long time horizon. However an increase in switching intensity reduces the return volatility and in particular a low switching intensity reduces the price volatility and increases the level of the significant ACs, but the effect becomes opposite when the switching intensity is high. We also show that market noise plays a more important role than fundamental noise on the power-law behavior of returns.     

我国封闭式基金IPO后溢价交易的实证研究及行为金融理论解释

尽管封闭式基金首次发行(IPO)后溢价交易一般只持续约20周,但实证表明此20周内短线投机交易异常活跃且多头方有利,原因是基金经理人在封闭式基金发行时的宣传对投资者有锚定效应,加上投资者的代表性经验推断和赌博心理,结果就使得投资者对新发行基金的预期偏离了理性。     

Short and long-run cost efficiency in Indian public bus companies using Data Envelopment Analysis

State Transport Undertakings (STUs) are key players in providing mass road transport in India. Given that they operate under high levels of government imposed regulatory constraints, it is imperative to study their efficiency levels. Given that capital is a relatively scarce resource in developing countries like India, it is important to obtain efficiency in the short-run where some inputs are fixed as well as over the long run, where all inputs are variable. The technique used for capturing efficiency is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A key possible limitation of DEA models based on physical inputs and outputs is that for an inefficient firm, reduction in some or all inputs may be recommended. It may often be desirable for an inefficient firm to increase some less expensive inputs while reducing the use of relatively expensive ones. Hence, when market price data is available, it is advisable to use the cost variant of DEA. Also, it is possible to determine variable cost efficiency in the short run when some inputs cannot be varied. Such inputs are referred to as “quasi-fixed” inputs. In this paper, we examine short and long term efficiencies of select bus companies in India known as State Transport Undertakings (STUs) over a period of 10 years. Fleet strength has been used as the quasi-fixed input. It is possible to ascertain, through a comparison of shadow price of the quasi-fixed input, vis-à-vis its market price, as to whether the quantity of this input is sub-optimally small or large. It is found that by adopting efficiency enhancing practices, STUs can cumulatively reduce their operating costs to the extent of 9123.35 million dollars. Also the tendency to minimize costs is found to be declining over time. In the short run some STUs are found to operate with a sub optimally low fleet size.     

Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents

This paper considers a discrete-time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk-free asset, where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. In each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization, but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period: the chartists are trend extrapolators, while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental. We assume that investors’ optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth, as a result of CRRA utility. A market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period, based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price. The model results in a nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system, with growing price and wealth processes, but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups. It is shown that the long-run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents’ behaviour as well as on the initial condition. Moreover, for wide ranges of the parameters a (locally) stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable ‘non-fundamental’ steady state, or with a stable closed orbit, where only chartists survive in the long run: such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction. Other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors, where in general both types of agents survive in the long run, with time-varying wealth fractions.     

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies in three regions that have different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. We show that (1) exports in Europe and Central Asia are driven by oil more than East Asia and the Pacific and that (2) policy makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned about real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate losses in the non-oil export market. Analysis by resource endowment further reveals that, in less-resource-intensive economies, an oil price shock causes large variations in consumption and has a negative and persistent impact on the real gross domestic product (GDP). In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are driven largely by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineral-exporting economies is short lived. In oil-exporting economies, only real GDP has a large variation in response to oil price shocks. Our findings highlight the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks, depending on resource endowments, as we show that a “one size fits all" policy does not exist.     

The Notion of Effectual Supply and the Theory of Normal Prices with Exhaustible Natural Resources

This paper proposes a revised theory of the classical notion of normal prices for an economy with exhaustible natural resources. The author introduces the notion of effectual supply and argues that Sraffa’s equations, without the Hotelling rule equation, can be reformulated to deal with the existence of an exhaustible natural resource. Such a revision of a well-established theory requires a reinterpretation and methodological clarification of Sraffa’s equations, but without a change in their mathematical form. The revised theory must focus on the effectual supply of the resource and it can ignore its total endowment.     

On Market Structure and the Taxation of Exhaustible Resources:

A bstract . The older static theory of the taxation of exhaustible resources is distinguished from the modern theory based on the work of Harold Hotelling Both advocate some form of a profits-based tax , which is appropriate for conditions of perfect competition. But an oligopolistic market structure has additional quasi-rents which could be captured through taxation. It is argued that a sales tax will not only capture the rents but also lower the cut-off grade of the ore mined.