The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

贸易政策不确定性与中国产品出口的数量、质量效应——基于自由贸易协定的政策背景

基于中国缔结自由贸易协定的政策背景,试图从贸易政策不确定性的新视角来解释中国的出口扩张以及出口升级。通过将贸易政策不确定性引入到质量异质性模型,推理出贸易政策不确定性对出口扩张及出口升级的关系等式,运用2002—2014年高度精细化的微观企业数据进行实证检验。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性下降有利于促进出口扩张和出口升级,OFDI是发挥贸易政策不确定性效应的重要作用机制。自由贸易战略是我国应对当前“逆全球化”国际局势的重要对策,贸易政策不确定性为我国维持出口扩张和实现出口升级提供了新思路。     

中国自贸区战略下的政府采购市场开放:现状、借鉴与策略

随着谈判和签署自贸协定步伐的加快,中国的自由贸易区网络建设逐渐拉开序幕.与此同时,中国政府采购范围与规模不断扩大,采购模式与方式体系逐步完善.为推动政府采购市场开放,中国一方面努力加入WTO的《政府采购协定》(GPA),另一方面积极在商谈的自贸协定(FTA)中加入政府采购议题.但是,在这两个方面的开放进程中,均面临一些...     

Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models

This paper evaluates the effects of preferential agreements on trade between trade group members and non-members using a static and a dynamic gravity model. The gravity model is estimated using recent panel data techniques which account for the endogeneity of the integration effects and the existence of dynamic effects. We incorporate into the static model the time-varying, multilateral resistance terms to obtain unbiased estimates. In addition, we estimate a dynamic version of the gravity model using a number of GMM estimators. The results show that dynamics are significant and robust and that the new wave of regionalism in the 1990s has had larger positive effects on intra and extra-bloc trade on developed countries (EU and NAFTA) than on developing countries.     

The relationship between economic freedom and peace

Classical liberals have long held that free markets foster peaceful societies. Many argue that free trade between nations will foster economic interdependence, and peace should ensue as a result. Nevertheless, there are many dissenters. While exploring the relationship between free trade and peace is important, it is only one part of ‘economic freedom.’ More research needs to be conducted to see how countries with high levels of entrepreneurship, low levels of corruption, independent judiciaries, and sound regulatory environments might be fostering peace.     

管理贸易的政治市场供求分析

一国贸易政策的制定不仅要考虑国与国之间的政治、经济关系,而且还要考虑国内公众、利益集团、政府等行为主体间的政治、经济关系.管理贸易既是一种贸易理论,也是一种贸易政策、贸易体制.在一些经济学家建立的贸易政策的政治供求基本模型基础上对管理贸易从政治需求、供给、均衡的角度进行分析后发现,一国的政治和社会体制对管理贸易政策有一定的决定作用,而一国管理贸易政策也会对该国的政治有一定影响,管理贸易政策与政治利益是相互作用、密不可分的.     

中国与东盟国家之间的贸易分析

世界上人口最多的自由贸易区-中国与东盟自由贸易区将于2010年建成.在这个世界第三大自由贸易区内,分析中国与东盟国家之间的贸易互补性、竞争性及比较优势,对于协调各方的利益得失,最大地发挥自由贸易区的作用,有着积极而重要的意义.     

国际资本流动与国际贸易关系:“Mundell模型悖论”

文章通过建立“Mundell模型悖论”模型,解释发展中国家对发达国家的投资对国际贸易的影响。分析得出的结论是:(1)发展中国家对发达国家的投资是贸易导向的;(2)应该以获取发达国家的先进生产技术为投资目的;(3)发达国家和发展中国家均能增加消费,增加各自的福利。文章最后给出了政策建议。     

THE DISTANCE PUZZLE AND LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: AN UPDATE

The ‘distance effect' measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been found to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the ‘distance puzzle'. However, this puzzle is regularly challenged by new developments in the specification of the gravity equation or in its estimations. We propose an original survey on the existing methods used to quantify the distance puzzle – basically the computation of an average distance of trade, a meta‐analysis on existing gravity papers and the implementation of recent econometric developments, all on a well‐specified gravity equation both in cross‐section and panel data. We apply all these methods to a unique large database (124 countries from 1970 to 2006). It appears that if all these new developments can change the amplitude of the increase in the trade elasticity to distance, none solve the distance puzzle. We confirm the existence of this puzzle and identify that it only applies to low‐income countries which exhibit a significant rising distance effect on their trade of around 18% between 1970 and 2006 while the distance ‘puzzle' for trade within richer countries disappears.     

Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

This paper investigates two questions: how does multilateral trade liberalisation affect inward foreign direct investment, and does this impact (if any) depend on the domestic trade policy? The analysis uses a panel data set comprising 171 countries spanning the period 1995–2012. Results indicate that multilateral trade policy liberalisation is conducive to higher FDI inflows in host countries. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that domestic trade policy almost always positively drives inward FDI in a context of multilateral trade policy liberalisation. Countries which initially have the most restrictive trade policy regimes appear to be the greatest beneficiaries of FDI inflows when they liberalise their trade policy in the context of multilateral trade liberalisation.     

Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach

India and Bangladesh have pursued policies of trade liberalization since the early 1990s. However, owing to the differential speeds of opening up, Bangladesh's bilateral trade deficit with India widened substantially over the years. This aggravated the economic and the political tensions between the economies. It has been held that promotion of free trade between the two economies may enhance the trade and hence economic cooperation between them. Against this backdrop the present paper proposes a theoretical framework that provides a general equilibrium determination of the commodity pattern of trade and hence locates the comparative advantages of the economies. The empirical implementation of the model considers trade in 25 sectors comparable in the input–output tables of the economies. The study isolates the gains from free trade accruing to either economy. The paper also explores the pattern of bilateral trade when each economy produces goods by utilizing their own as well as the other country's technology. The gains from this trading arrangement are also isolated.     

The impact of China’s one belt one road initiative on international trade in the ASEAN region

This study explores the potential effects of China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) policy on trade flows in ASEAN countries and China. We use the augmented gravity model of international trade and data on ASEAN countries and China from 2000 to 2016. The empirical results show that the coefficient of the OBOR dummy is positive and statistically significant, which implies that this policy benefits both ASEAN countries and China in terms of increased trade flows among these countries. In addition, the coefficients of other control variables, such as a common language, a common border, and distance, have the expected signs, and all are statistically significant. Thus, the OBOR policy initiative could be a promising mechanism for trade facilitation in these countries in the years to come.     

从香港税制探讨对海南自贸港税制建设的几点借鉴

香港特别行政区(以下称“香港”)以自由贸易、低税率及少政府干预而著称,是东亚主要的国际贸易中心、离岸人民币业务中心、金融中心及国际航运中心,与新加坡、迪拜港共同被称为“全球三大自由贸易港”。“十九大”报告中,习总书记提出“探索建设自由贸易港”,后续又圈定海南全岛建设自贸区和中国特色自由贸易港。论文通过研究香港税制,分析香港税制中鼓励自由贸易的独特设计,提出海南自贸港税制设计时可借鉴的方案。     

SUPPLY-USE FRAMEWORK FOR INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ANALYSIS

The technical variation between countries in the production of goods and services, in terms of not only input coefficients, but also emission coefficients, creates scope for international trade to reduce environmental pressures. For this purpose we extend the theory of trade and the environment as to accommodate technical variation between countries in production and emissions. We use and steer close to the extended input and output tables, which include emission data. By treating environmental standards analogous to capital and labor capacity constraints, the aggregation problem for economic and environmental measures gets the same format as the well-understood aggregation problem for labor and capital. In a pilot application we determine the gains to free trade in products and emission permits.     

A monopolistic-competition model of international trade with external economies of scale

This paper presents a two-country model of monopolistic competition in which differentiated products are produced subject to external economies of scale and two countries differ only in size measured by the factor endowment. It is shown that under free trade, the larger country has positive net exports of differentiated products, which leads to its gains from trade, while the smaller country may lose from trade. Noteworthy is that the industrial agglomeration induced by inter-industry trade is possibly harmful to both countries if the two countries are similar in size and the taste for product diversity is sufficiently strong.     

Brexit — velvet divorce or messy breakup?

• We use a ‘scenario tree’ approach to look at the possible outcomes of the negotiations around the UK's exit from the EU. Given how little common ground there is between the two sides, we find that a relatively loose relationship is the most likely outcome, with the UK set to leave the EU in early‐ 2019.
• The negotiating positions of the UK and EU are diametrically opposed. The UK wants to end the free movement of labour, cease making contributions to the EU budget and regain ‘sovereignty’ from Brussels, while retaining as much access to the single market as possible. But the EU's starting position is that single market access is dependent upon agreeing to the four freedoms and that this is non‐negotiable.
• So far all signs are that the UK will prioritise the ability to control immigration over single market access. Thus remaining a member of the EEA is very unlikely to be viable over the longer‐term – our scenario tree analysis gives it a probability of just 6% – although it may be adopted as an interim step. Remaining part of the customs union is also unlikely (18%) as it will preclude the UK from making FTA with third countries.
• If the EU takes a mercantilist approach, it will have little incentive to come to an agreement with the UK over single market access for services, given the UK's large trade surplus with the EU for these activities, implying that UK firms may face growing non‐tariff barriers after the UK has left the EU. The UK's large deficit on goods trade with the EU gives a better chance of agreeing a FTA for goods, though with any FTA requiring agreement from all 27 EU members, the UK would have to be prepared for lengthy negotiations and make extensive concessions. Therefore, we think that a reversion to WTO rules (37%) is slightly more likely than agreeing a FTA (36%).

     

Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework developed in Eaton et al. (2016), we revisit the puzzles in a counterfactual world without trade frictions in manufactures. Removing these trade frictions goes a long way toward resolving a number of puzzles. The dependence of domestic investment on domestic saving falls by half or disappears entirely, mitigating the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) puzzle. Changes in nominal GDPs in U.S. dollars become less variable across countries and line up with changes in real GDPs as much as with real exchange rates, mitigating the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Less dramatically, changes in consumption become more correlated across countries, mitigating the consumption correlations puzzle and changes in real exchange rates become less variable across countries, mitigating the relative purchasing power parity puzzle.     

中日韩自由贸易区的贸易流量和福利效应分析:一个局部均衡的校准方法

校准方法作为一种确定数理经济模型中的变量和参数的手段之一,在贸易政策的建模研究中得到广泛的应用.本文以局部均衡为基础,利用中日韩三国自1990～2003年共14年的贸易额及相关数据建立校准模型,并对拟议中的中日韩自由贸易区做出比较静态分析,从产业层面来模拟中日韩自由贸易区建成后所可能带来的福利效应.分析结果表明,中日韩三国建立自由贸易区会增加彼此的国民福利水平,并会对未加入贸易协定的其他东亚国家产生影响.因此,在东亚形成更为广泛的自由贸易安排从区域合作的角度来看是一种更佳的合作方式.     

Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in Agriculture

This paper analyzes trade-related knowledge flows from an innovating country to other countries. It is assumed that knowledge is embodied in commodities traded between countries and that the potential productivity of this knowledge is determined by the local usability of foreign technologies. The usability of foreign knowledge is dependent on the local absorption capacity (such as knowledge infrastructure and human capital) and on structural differences (factor endowments or climate) between countries. In agriculture, a large portion of the knowledge is embodied in inputs which cause factor-biased technical change in the receiving sectors. Trade-related knowledge transmission is introduced in an applied multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) to study the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of knowledge spillovers and of trade policies. Endogenous embodied technology spillovers bear some important implications for trade policy, because protective measures preclude countries not only from cheaper imports but also from foreign technologies.     

Brexit – Customs borders will impose costs and delays

• ? The UK's decision to leave the EU customs union is likely to see physical customs borders being introduced, including in Ireland. This will impose administrative costs and delays, with our modelling suggesting that introducing customs checks would reduce the level of UK GDP in 2030 by between 0.7–1.3%. But there are opportunities for the two sides to limit the damage through cooperation and the UK could also mitigate the costs by agreeing free‐trade agreements (FTA) with third countries.
• ? The UK can take as ‘light‐touch’ an approach to customs checks on imports from the EU as it desires. But it is likely that the EU will introduce customs checks on goods imported from the UK, even if the two sides agree an FTA, to ensure regulatory compliance and that ‘rules of origin’ have been satisfied – this will be particularly important if the UK agrees FTA with countries the EU does not have deals with.
• ? Introducing customs borders would pose some logistical problems, particularly in the Dover Strait where existing infrastructure is limited and there are space constraints. A potential fivefold increase in customs declarations will also pose challenges on the IT front. If the UK and EU are unable to agree transitional arrangements, then the additional infrastructure would need to be up and running in a very short period of time. This risks a period of substantial disruption.
• ? Traders will have to complete additional paperwork – such as export licences and import declarations – but much of this can be dealt with electronically, which should help to limit costs and delays. In addition, if the two sides were to share information then this could help to limit the extent to which risk‐based inspections caused delays.
• ? The Government is effectively calculating that the benefits from agreeing FTA with other countries will outweigh the costs of customs controls on the UK‐EU border. This judgement looks doubtful and, at best, would take many years to bear fruit.