Escape dynamics and equilibria selection by iterative cycle decomposition

This paper explores the medium-run behaviour of bounded rational players in repeatedly played games when they occasionally experiment or make mistakes. The formal analysis introduces a hierarchical structure of limit sets to characterize the most possible medium-run behaviour over gradually increased time intervals. The paper refines the notion of stochastic stability and offers a precise measure of the speed at which stochastically stable equilibria occur. Finally, the paper applies the results to a 3×3 symmetric game of Young (1993).     

E-stability and stability of adaptive learning in models with private information

The paper demonstrates how the E-stability principle introduced by Evans and Honkapohja [2001. Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] can be applied to models with heterogeneous and private information in order to assess the stability of rational expectations equilibria under learning. The paper extends already known stability results for the Grossman and Stiglitz [1980. On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. American Economic Review 70, 393–408] model to a more general case with many differentially informed agents and to the case where information is endogenously acquired by optimizing agents. In both cases it turns out that the rational expectations equilibrium of the model is inherently E-stable and thus locally stable under recursive least squares learning.     

Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility

This paper presents a DSGE model in which agents׳ learning about the economy can endogenously generate time-varying macroeconomic volatility. Economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters. Their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted according to past forecast errors.The model is estimated using likelihood-based Bayesian methods. The endogenous gain is jointly estimated with the structural parameters of the system.The estimation results show that private agents appear to have often switched to constant-gain learning, with a high constant gain, during most of the 1970s and until the early 1980s, while reverting to a decreasing gain later on. As a result, the model can generate a pattern of volatility, which is increasing in the 1970s and falling in the second half of the sample, with a decline that can roughly match the magnitude of the so-called “Great Moderation” in the 1984–2007 period. The paper also documents how a failure to incorporate learning into the estimation may lead econometricians to spuriously find time-varying volatility in the exogenous shocks, even when these have constant variance by construction.     

Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates

We explore the role of evolving beliefs regarding the structure of the macroeconomy in improving our understanding of the term structure of interest rates within the context of a simple macro-finance model. Using quarterly vintages of real-time data and survey forecasts for the United States over the past 40 years, we show that a recursively estimated VAR on real GDP growth, inflation and the nominal short-term interest rate generates predictions that are more consistent with survey forecasts than a benchmark fixed-coefficient counterpart. We then estimate a simple term structure model under the assumption that investor risk attitude is driven by near-term expectations of the three state variables. When we allow for evolving beliefs about the macroeconomy, the resulting term structure model provides a better fit to the cross section of yields than the benchmark model, especially at longer maturities, and exhibits better performance in out-of-sample predictions of future yield movements.     

农村最低生活保障标准调整实证研究——以山东省泰安市为例

本文利用计量经济模型分析了泰安市1997年-2009年农村最低生活保障标准的面板数据,对影响农村最低生活保障标准调整的因素做出了定量及定性分析。分析表明:人均预算内财政收入是农村最低生活保障标准调整的主要影响因素。但由于考虑因素欠妥,农村低保标准调整中存在依据不够合理,人为因素影响较大等问题,产生了农村低保标准偏低、覆盖面窄、未实现应保尽保等负面效应。由此提出合理调整农村低保标准的建议,为客观合理制定适合当地经济发展水平的农村低保标准提供科学依据。     

Network dynamics and new ventures in China: A longitudinal study

This study examines the effects of networking skills of entrepreneurs on network dynamics and venture legitimacy. The article is based on the longitudinal survey data of 94 Internet entrepreneurs in Beijing, China. The findings suggest that networking skills of entrepreneurs have positive effects on the structural changes of entrepreneurial networks over time. Further, improvements in networking skills of entrepreneurs are conducive to greater venture legitimacy measured as the number of institutional investors in the new venture. The research and practical implications are discussed.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

Using partial least squares in operations management research: A practical guideline and summary of past research

The partial least squares (PLS) approach to structural equation modeling (SEM) has been widely adopted in business research fields such as information systems, consumer behavior, and marketing. The use of PLS in the field of operations management is also growing. However, questions still exist among some operations management researchers regarding whether and how PLS should be used. To address these questions, our study provides a practical guideline for using PLS and uses examples from the operations management literature to demonstrate how the specific points in this guideline can be applied. In addition, our study reviews and summarizes the use of PLS in the recent operations management literature according to our guideline. The main contribution of this study is to present a practical guideline for evaluating and using PLS that is tailored to the operations management field.     

调适性结构化视角下的信息系统实施——辽河油田通信公司视频会议系统实施案例分析

如今信息化成为企业发展的动力之一,企业信息化是为了提高企业的竞争力而将先进的信息技术应用于企业的管理过程之中,从而降低企业的成本、提高企业的利润,然而企业信息化不仅是信息技术工具的应用,也是一个组织变革的过程。本文以调适性结构化理论（AST）作为理论基础,通过案例研究分析了辽河油田通信公司视频会议系统的应用过程。研究结...