International propagation of shocks: A dynamic factor model using survey forecasts

This paper studies the pathways for the propagation of shocks across the G7 and major Asia-Pacific countries using multi-horizon forecasts of real GDP growth from 1995 to 2017. We show that if the forecasts are efficient in the long run, the results obtained using these forecasts are comparable to those obtained from the actual outturns. We measure global business cycle connectedness and study the impacts of both country-specific shocks and common international shocks using a panel factor structural VAR model. Our results suggest that there is a strong convergence of business cycles within the group of industrialized countries, as well as within the group of developing economies during non-recessionary periods. In particular, we find an increased decoupling between the industrialized and developing economies after the 2008 recession. However, the direction of shock spillovers during recessions and other crisis periods varies, depending on the nature and origin of the episode.     

Cointegration, causality and the transmission of shocks across wheat market in Pakistan

This paper uses quarterly price data and examines the transmission of shocks across different spatially separated locations besides identifying causality among these locations. Johansen and Juselius’s (Econ. Stat., 52, 160–210, 1990) multivariate cointegration procedure identified two cointegrating vectors among these locations. Following Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econom., 66, 225–250, 1995), causality tests showed only one bi-directional causality and it was between Peshawar and Hyderabad locations. Faisalabad and Sargodha appeared independent (i.e. exogenous) market locations in price discovery process. Peshawar market showed maximum (i.e. 5) number of significant links. The generalized impulse response functions, though, suggested similar (cyclical) pattern of responses across the markets, but their time profile, which provides insight into the system’s speed of convergence to long run equilibrium path, varied with different level of extent and persistency. Responses to shock originating in consumption markets (i.e. Karachi, Peshawar and Lahore) remained short lived; whereas the shocks stemming from surplus wheat producing locations (i.e Multan, Sargodha and Faisalabad) produced long and more persistent responses.      

城乡居民消费行为及结构演化的差异研究

转变经济发展方式、实现经济内生增长是中国经济进入“新常态”阶段最迫切需要解决的问题,而实现这一目标,最为重要的则是居民消费水平的有效提升,尤其是农村居民消费困境的破解。基于此,本文采用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)对中国城乡居民消费行为及其演化规律进行了跨时期分析,结果发现城乡居民收入与消费之间表现为明显的非线性关系,并没有完全遵循边际消费倾向递减规律。“七五”时期和“八五”时期,城乡居民边际消费随收入的增加而递增;“九五”时期及以后,城镇居民边际消费随着收入的增加而递减,农村居民边际消费则仍随收入的增加而递增。从收入结构视角看,农民边际消费仅随工资性收入和家庭经营性收入的增加而递增,而城镇居民边际消费随工资性收入、家庭经营性收入和转移性收入的增加而递减。由于农民收入增长质量较低,而且收入结构不合理,从而直接导致农民消费水平低下且结构不合理,因此,提升农民消费水平,迫切需要优化农民收入结构和消费结构。     

The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of credit supply shocks on the macroeconomy and estimates a new financial conditions index. We calculated two credit supply factors using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. The first factor is identified as the willingness to lend, while the second factor is the lending capacity. The impact of these two types of shocks and their changes over time is examined using Hungarian data. The two types of lending shocks affect macro variables rather differently: a positive lending capacity shock (in a banking system mostly owned by non-residents) influences GDP through a decrease in country risk and the easing of monetary policy, while willingness to lend primarily increases lending activity. The two financial shocks also differ in terms of their evolution over time: deviations from the average in the impact of a willingness to lend shock usually occur for short periods of time and are of a small degree between the various quarters. However, in the case of lending capacity, certain trends can be observed: before the crisis, the stability of the banking system played an increasing role in country risk, whereas after 2008 it appears that monetary policy paid increasing attention to financial stability. Finally, a new type of financial conditions index is quantified based on our estimates, which measures the impact of the banking system’s lending activity on GDP growth.     

产品寿命周期理论与标准化工作的探讨

根据实现带全局意义的两个根本性转变的要求，阐述了应用产品寿命周期理论对企业标准化工作的作用和意义。     

企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任的匹配探讨——一种新的企业履行社会责任的理论分析框架

本文首先研究了企业履行社会责任的模式并提出了企业社会责任的层次模型;其次,将企业需求与个人需求在企业生态学的范畴下进行了类比,提出了企业需求层次模型,并将企业需求归纳为企业履行社会责任的动力;再次,本文运用企业生命周期原理,将企业成长状况看作是衡量企业具有一定的履行社会责任能力的体现;最后,通过将企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任进行匹配探讨,揭示了企业履行社会责任的动力和能力原理及其可能的行为,并得出了一些有意义的结论。     

城乡收入差距对城镇失业的影响及对策分析

当前我国城乡收入差距日益扩大引发了庞大的乡-城人口流动,在一定程度上加剧了城镇的高失业状况.正确认识这种状况,需要运用适当的理论,予以科学的分析.利用托达罗模型对此现象进行了理论分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对城乡收入差距加剧我国城镇失业问题进行了实证检验,最后提出了短期内利用新农村建设缓解我国城镇失业压力的政策措施及建议.     

基于动力学模型的房地产发展与经济宏观调控

本文通过供求平衡的模式来分析影响房地产业发展的主要因素,建立一个基于政府、房地产商、消费者三者之间的动力学模型,然后根据所建的三维动力学模型,对房地产市场的调控提出相应的意见,并以银行升息为例做了相应的分析。     

塔河4区碳酸盐岩缝洞型油藏周期注水实践及认识

塔河4区奥陶系油藏是以发育大规模溶洞为主的碳酸盐岩缝洞型油藏,2005年开展注水开发以来,稳定见效期5-6年。2011年开始注水效果变差,注采井组水窜严重,递减明显加大。本文针对注水效果变差的现状,从周期注水机理入手,总结了周期注水参数优化、不同缝洞及注采连通关系周期注水方法,周期注水有效改善了区块开发效果。