Pensions: theories of underfunding

The widespread underfunding of private defined benefit pensions has generated concern over the viability of employers' promises of retirement benefits. Years ago, similar concerns led to the creation of pension benefit insurance plans by governments in the United States and a number of other countries. This paper studies the causes of underfunding in an environment without pension benefit insurance. We find that the optimal level of retirement benefits will be offered and fully funded if the employer has sufficient internal funds or is able to borrow all it needs. If loans are not enforceable, an employer with limited resources will generally underfund pensions. Further, if pension investments earn lower returns than other investments, pensions will be underfunded. Thus, the paper highlights the link between financial markets and the underfunding of pensions.     

养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理,本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,并在不同口径和方法下,对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算,分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明,尽管在不同评估目的下,养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法,选择不同的精算假设,会得出有差异的评估结果,但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下,我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势,如果不改革现行制度,养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。     

现收现付制养老保险对储蓄的影响——基于中国面板数据的实证研究

本文计算了我国养老保险现收现付制部分财富价值,并运用中国30个省份2002～2007年的相关面板数据考察了我国现收现付制养老保险对于储蓄的影响。研究结果表明,现收现付制养老保险对我国居民消费有显著的正向影响,即存在对储蓄的挤出;养老保险财富对消费的影响小于收入对消费的影响;我国养老保险对储蓄的挤出效应并不小,同时在不断扩大。因此,针对我国储蓄率过高的问题,可以通过扩大养老保险覆盖面等方法增加养老保险财富,促进经济的健康发展。     

The effect of disability pension incentives on early retirement decisions

I investigate the incentive effects of disability pensions on disability retirement entry as a special type of early retirement. The implicit tax rate on further work is included as a forward looking incentive measure. A substantial change of the disability pension legislation caused exogenous variation in disability benefits in Germany in 2001 and is used to obtain estimates of individual's responses to financial incentives. Benefit levels appear to have no effect on the labour market behaviour. At the same time, there is a sizable and significant disincentive effect of implicit taxes on labour market income, indicating that alleviating such disincentives would likely increase labour force participation. Since the response to financial incentives occurs mainly among those in good health, such a policy might on the other hand imperil the aim of providing insurance against a health‐induced loss of one's working capacity.     

我国基本养老保险个人账户“空账”问题及对策研究

我国基本养老保险个人账户制度是基于传统的现收现付制的养老保险制度面临不可持续发展的财务困境的背景下发展起来的。本文通过对养老保险改革的研究,归纳总结了引起养老保险个人账户"空账"问题的原因,并针对这些原因,提出了具体的应对措施,希望能为改善我国的养老金个人账户"空账"问题改革事业做出一丝贡献。     

Pensions, non-discrimination policies, and the employment of older workers

This paper analyzes firms' decisions to hire older workers. We model, the role of pensions in back-loading pay for specifically trained workers. We then evaluate the effects, of imposing age discrimination rules and non-discriminatory fringe benefit rules, and analyze the consequences for the firm's decision to hire older versus younger individuals. The model predicts that defined benefit pension plans deter the hiring of older workers, but only if hired for entry level position. The reason is f hat the wages of this group cannot be lowered enough to pay for the benefits. Data from a new survey of employers are used to test this hypothesis. The findings show that a more generous defined benefit pension plan reduces employment prospects for older, entry level workers. Employers offering defined benefit pension, plans employ older workers, but tend not to hire them into entry level jobs.     

Formula Apportionment: Factor Allocation and Tax Avoidance

This paper addresses the question of how firms react to tax incentives in a formula apportionment (FA) tax regime. Under FA, the profits of all consolidated entities of a business group are summed and then allocated according to a formula based on FA factors. We hypothesize that firms may change the allocation of real production factors and/or manipulate the FA factor through tax avoidance strategies. Analyzing FA tax effects of the German local business tax with payroll expense as the exclusive FA factor, we find empirical evidence consistent with both hypotheses. Regarding the allocation of production factors, we observe significant tax effects on labor input at the intensive margin but not on labor input at the extensive margin. In addition, we find evidence of an indirect FA spillover effect on capital investment. Our findings on tax avoidance proxies are consistent with tax-induced manipulations of payroll expense as an FA factor to save tax payments.     

养老保险统筹层次收入再分配系数及全国统筹类型研究

本文从社会统筹养老保险的收入再分配功能入手,根据养老金计发办法及约束因素,提出“基础养老金收入再分配系数”原理和数理模型,据此延伸出分层平均统筹类型与分比例统筹类型下全国统筹各方案,测算全国统筹各方案下的收入再分配系数并依据希克斯改进、生存公平、劳动公平三种检验,评估全国统筹各方案的收入再分配效果。研究表明：选择方案5（10%替代率中央统筹分比例统筹类型）作为养老保险全国统筹起步方案,实现了适度的收入再分配,可以稳妥地衔接地区之间的利益关系,实现省级统筹向全国统筹的合理对接。     

失业保险,道德风险与激励机制研究

在简化的Lucas—Prescott（1974）的模型基础上，本文说明了失业保险中失业保险金对搜寻努力存在着负效用，并分别就无失业保险、完全失业保险、不完全失业保险、失业保险金过低等四种情况，分析了道德风险的产生机制以及克服道德风险的激励机制。针对失业保险中的道德风险问题，本文提出了相应的政策建议：失业期内单调下降的失业保险金支付方法，征收失业保险税或奖励再就业，对失业工人的搜寻努力进行监督和惩罚，执行劳动福利计划等。     

The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy

This study exploits a new dataset to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. This dataset contains—for the first time for Italy—information on seniority. The effects of marginal incentives and social security wealth (SSW) on retirement go in the expected direction; when employees become eligible for pension benefits, the change in financial incentives they experience is so great that their retirement probability increases by 30 percentage points.We also find that the procedure used in previous Italian studies to impute seniority leads to a considerable overestimation of that variable and of SSW. We show that, due to these measurement errors, the estimate of the SSW coefficient takes the wrong sign. A comparison of retirement studies across countries (see Gruber and Wise [Gruber, J., and Wise, D., (2004). Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro-Estimation, NBER. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London.]) provides prima facie evidence that a lack of good quality data often leads to wrongly signed estimates of the SSW coefficient.     

Improving Incentives in Unemployment Insurance: A Review of Recent Research

Abstract.  This paper provides a review of the recent literature on how incentives in unemployment insurance can be improved. We are particularly concerned with three instruments, i.e. the duration of benefit payments (or more generally the time sequencing of benefits), monitoring in conjunction with sanctions, and workfare. Our reading of the theoretical literature is that the case for imposing a penalty on less active job search is fairly solid. A growing number of empirical studies, including randomized experiments, are in line with this conclusion.     

The impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the margins of international trade

In this paper we consider the trade creating effects of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) for a large sample of countries within the period 1962-2000. The paper builds upon existing literature by examining whether any significant effects of PTAs occur through a change in the variety of exports (the extensive margin) or through a change in the volume of existing products (the intensive margin). To address this issue we employ the commonly used gravity equation as well as a matching approach to deal with potential self-selection problems. Our results indicate that exports respond positively to the formation of a PTA between countries, and that much of this increase in exports occurs along the extensive margin. We also show that the extensive margin responds more strongly to the formation of a PTA in larger exporters and for larger country pairs.     

The Role of Defined Benefit Pension Plans in Executive Compensation

Abstract

Although defined benefit (DB) pension plans constitute a significant portion of both annual compensation and firm-related wealth for many CEOs, prior studies of CEO compensation contracts generally exclude these plans from their analyses due to lack of data. Taking advantage of recently increased disclosure requirements, we analyse the role of DB pension plans in these contracts. We find that firms with CEO DB pension plans grant the CEO annual compensation that is larger than predicted by economic determinants. We also find that more powerful CEOs, identified by their extraordinary pension benefits, receive higher total pay in addition to the pension benefits. We find no evidence that CEO pension benefits contribute to the pay-for-performance sensitivity of the annual pay.     

Institutional investors,corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector

Proportions of equity held by institutional investors—pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds—are rising across all OECD countries. Meanwhile institutions are becoming more influential in corporate governance, even in bank-dominated countries, inter alia due to international investment, pension reform and EMU. We provide two forms of evidence on the effects of institutional corporate governance on corporate performance. First we offer a literature survey on micro evidence, the outcome of which is mixed, but on balance suggesting a positive effect on equity returns. We contend that these micro studies face a difficulty that they cannot capture effects of governance initiatives whose effects go wider than “target firms”. Accordingly, we present results for the reduced form empirical relationship between institutional share holding and corporate sector performance at an economy-wide level. These are consistent with significant effects which differ between “Anglo-Saxon” and “relationship banking” countries. For example, institutions appear to accompany lower investment and higher dividends in the former.     

基本养老保险基金：做实账户制还是名义账户制？

我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险个人账户在本质上体现的是养老权而不是财产权,基本养老保险个人财户权益的根本意义在于保障企业职工的社会养老权。我国从2001年开始实行做实企业职工基本养老保险个人账户试点,这不仅未能化解养老金支付风险,而且加大了养老保险基金保值增值难度,基金贬值程度也随着做实比例的提高而增大。另外,做实个人账户抬高了储蓄率并抑制了投资和消费需求,对经济发展产生了挤出效应。为解决上述问题,应建立更加公平可持续的养老金制度,通过名义账户制从根本上体现企业职工的财产权和社会养老权,解决做实账户制所出现     

Individual Differences in Attractiveness of Jobs Based on Compensation Package Components

The primary purpose of the present study was to examine the effect of salary level, amount of leave per year, the extent of cost-sharing for health care insurance coverage, and type of retirement plan on individuals’ job choice within a United States employment context. Salary, amount of vacation time, cost of health insurance, and type of retirement plan predicted the likelihood that individuals would apply for a position as well as accept the position if it were offered to them. While the type of retirement plan had an effect, there was virtually no difference based on whether the retirement plan was a defined benefit pension plan, a 401 K plan, or a company stock plan. There were no interactions between compensation plan components suggesting recruits do not consider salary as a substitute for benefits. Marital status, benefit history, attitudes towards earnings, and risk propensity predicted the relative importance placed on salary and specific benefits in the compensation package.     

浅谈社会养老保险制度走向

鉴于公共养老保险制度的财务危机和制度缺陷,各国政府纷纷认识到改革现行制度的必要性和紧迫性。各国公共养老保险制度的改革形式多种多样,概括起来有两大类:小调整和大改革。     

SAVINGS IN TIMES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: LESSONS FROM THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE

Pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks. The desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement. Whether this actually takes place, is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers. We take Germany as an example: Twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic German pension system into a multipillar system. Formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced, whereas substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes. Has this transition worked out? We survey the reform steps and households’ reactions: How did individuals adjust their labor market behavior? How did private and occupational pension plans take off? How do behavioral adjustments vary in the population? Most Germans adapted to the new situation. Both actual and expected retirement decisions changed and the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73% to 39% in little more than a decade. This is a remarkable success. Nonetheless, households with low education, low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income.     

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe: The case of Poland

This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.     

INSURANCE BY GOVERNMENT OR AGAINST GOVERNMENT? OVERVIEW OF PUBLIC RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES

In what contexts is it desirable that the government, rather than the private sector, takes on the role of an insurer and helps people reduce risks? Our discussion implies that while in a number of areas individuals benefit from well-designed insurance provided by their government, ill-designed public policies (for example existing pay-as-you-go pension systems) force individuals to insure against their government. It is further discussed how governments could improve their risk managing role in many areas by using income contingent loans, provided the country has high-quality institutions and governance. Such loans to artists, sportspeople, flood victims or collapsing financial institutions would replace the existing nonrepayable transfers, grants, subsidies and bailouts. Using a simple efficiency-equity-sustainability framework for comparing income contingent schemes with conventional public and private insurance policies, we document that this would enable governments to extend their insurance assistance to a greater number of people and institutions – in a way that is not only equitable but also efficient and fiscally sustainable.