Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects

Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a discretionary era from 1974 to 1985, a rules-based era from 1985 to 2000, and a discretionary era from 2001 to 2013. With the modified Taylor rule, the rules-based era extends further into the 1970s and there is an additional rules-based period starting in 2006. We calculate various loss functions and find that economic performance is uniformly better during rules-based eras than during discretionary eras, and that the original Taylor rule provides the largest loss during discretionary periods relative to loss during rules-based periods.     

Central bank rules in historical perspective

This article explains that, while Walter Bagehot׳s Lombard Street had a rule about the central bank׳s role as a lender of last resort, it was not a precursor of the rules-based approach to monetary policy. Monetary policy rules came into fashion in the 1980s and 1990s when it became clear from the 1970s just how dangerous discretion could be. Under different historical circumstances before that and in more recent times, it was rules that seemed much inferior to discretion.     

Central European EU accession and Latin American integration: Mutual lessons in macroeconomic policy design

Design options in exchange rate, monetary and fiscal policies, are explored for economies in Central Europe and Latin America that aspire to engage in monetary unification. Recent experience in these regions suggests that, absent a model of institutional harmonization and a road map for policy convergence, Latin American economies would benefit from following internally consistent macroeconomic policies—possibly in the context of a rules-based framework—and from adopting widely accepted standards of best practice. Unilateral adoption of a hard currency (dollarization or euroization) tends to be counterproductive unless it is supported by fiscal discipline and wage flexibility. Empirical evidence is presented on the effect of expected monetary unification on sovereign risk.     

国外区域经济政策实践及对我国的启示

国外的区域经济政策实践大多有着符合自身国情的特点,但同时也有很多可资借鉴的共同经验,这对我国现阶段制定和实施区域经济政策具有重要的启示作用.     

Choosing an Accounting Method to Explain Public Policy: Social Return on Investment and UK Non-profit Sector Policy

We examine why certain accounting methods are chosen by government policy-makers to explain and rationalize their policy actions. We focus on the case of social return on investment (SROI), an accounting methodology that aims to capture and quantify the value created by social purpose organizations, and employs techniques of monetization and the expression of value as a ratio of benefits for investments [see REDF. (2000). SROI methodology: Analyzing the value of social purpose enterprise within a social return on investment framework. San Francisco: REDF; New Economics Foundation (NEF). (2007). Measuring real value: A DIY guide to social return on investment]. In particular, we examine how and why SROI was chosen for explaining and rationalizing the UK Government's policy of greater involvement of non-profit sector organizations in public service delivery. Our central contribution is to propose two important factors, which we identify as the capturability and communicability of accounting methods, that help to explain why a particular accounting method would be chosen by policy actors to explain and rationalize their public policy choices. The research helps further our understanding of the intersection between accounting and public policy by focusing explicitly on accounting's important role in explaining and rationalizing public policy.     

Debt and Development

This paper examines incentive and valuation effects of debt financing on land investment. When land is debt financed, the landowner holds both a development option on the land and a default option on the debt. Because development typically devalues the default option, investment may be delayed past the point at which efficient investment would otherwise proceed. The incentive to underinvest is shown to be more pronounced as debt level increases, i.e., as the debt becomes riskier. This agency problem provides an explanation as to why land is generally difficult to debt finance and may also explain why debt levels are relatively low for “land-intensive” real estate firms. Novel comparative statics show that debt value may increase for a given increase in asset volatility as well as for a given increase in interest rate. Renegotiation and restrictive contract provisions are considered as mechanisms to promote efficient investment policy in the presence of debt financing.     

Enterprise level cluster innovation with policy design

ABSTRACT

An industrial cluster is an important link in the process of industrialization. The existing research is mainly based on the market economy. Our paper considers external policy design for cluster innovation based on the transition from planned economy to market economy in China. This paper finds some enterprises in the cluster are transferred from micro-enterprises to small ones, but does not find clustering from the small enterprise to middle or larger enterprise. Furthermore, our paper explained why such a cluster occurs by applying a semi-parametric counterfactual approach. The results indicate that building cluster zones as upgrading the enterprise structure policy and implementing VAT tax systems as the tax benefit policy has the most proponent role in industrial clustering, whereas increasing the loan/financing as the credit policy has a minor impact, which is not negligible either. Overall, this study explains why clusters shift to high output valued with a high interpretation of up to 97%. The contribution of this paper is not only to describe the time process of micro-to-small enterprise clustering but also to give the policy design how to achieve rapid micro-to-small enterprise clustering.     

For Slow Research

This essay addresses a relatively neglected practical aspect of critical policy studies: the pressure to produce many research outputs. That pressure emanates in part from the fast‐paced policy world studied by the researcher, and in part (perhaps even more significantly) from the university environment of the researcher herself. The essay highlights how the tendency towards output‐driven or fast research operates and what analytical traps it engenders. My goal is to spell out, more explicitly than is commonly done, why the push toward fast research is problematic on analytical grounds and why it ought to be resisted on these same grounds. I call for slow research to underscore that context‐sensitive critical investigation of a social field, such as policy, is a necessarily slow process.     

稳定现金股利政策探讨——评佛山照明股利政策

佛山电器照明股份有限公司作为老牌绩优股,上市11年坚持每年现金分红,是深沪两市累计每股派现最高的公司。那么,该公司为何要采取这种长期稳定的现金股利分配政策,公司采用该政策将给自身带来什么影响,本文对此作出了分析。     

论会计准则制定导向的选择

会计准则制定导向问题是一个令人难以抉择的问题。本文在对现有几种会计准则制定导向观的分析中获得准则制定导向选择的恰当观点。笔者认为,具体的会计环境是准则制定导向选择的约束条件。随着约束条件的变化,准则制定导向的偏重点必然需要一定幅度的调整以适应环境的变化。我国会计准则的制定应该仍然以原则为指导,以规则为基础,从而制定出符合我国国情的高质量会计准则。     

Fund immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese equity funds

This paper discusses the connection between public equity fund characteristics and performance reactions to COVID-19 using data over 1300 equity funds across 105 Chinese fund companies. Empirical evidences from over 20 fund characteristics show that the liquidity, diversification and pre-2020 Sharpe ratio, fund management abilities, agency costs can determine the fund immunity to COVID-19. Based on these characteristics mentioned, our empirical results can explain why COVID-19-induced drop in fund performance is milder among open-end funds, active funds, ETFs, and growth funds, and also can explain why funds controlled by private companies or by sino-foreign joint ventures or by companies with more independent directors of financial experiences perform better in the pandemic. Our work also provides some valuable suggestions for investors and regulators confronting an exogenous shock.     

美国规则基础会计准则制订模式成因探析——基于会计双重属性的思考

本文以近年来发生于美国的一系列重大公司财务舞弊事件为背景,从会计的双重属性及会计准则性质的角度,对美国现行会计准则体系过于规则基础的成因进行探讨,并对我国会计准则制订提出若干建议。     

从"畅通工程"看我国城市建设和交通管理等部门的合作协调机制

近10年来,以北京、上海、广州等为典型代表的中国城市所出现的交通问题是空前严重的.所以, 国家在2000年提出了"畅通工程"作为一个重要对策.目前,"畅通工程"已实施1年多,它给人们以什么启示?在此基础上,今后我国城市建设和交通管理等部门的合作协调又该如何进行?对此,作者进行了探讨.     

What's happened to the labour market for early school‐leavers in Britain?

This article analyses recent empirical data to explain why the youth labour market has disappeared over the last 20 years. The findings demonstrate that some young people stayed in education to acquire credentials, while others did so merely as a substitute for unemployment. Government policy is discussed in the light of these findings.     

The business case for sustainability? An examination of small firms in the UK's construction and restaurant sectors

Studies show that despite a concerted attempt by UK policy‐makers to portray ‘eco‐efficiency’ measures as cost reducing, most owner‐managers of small firms view environmental measures as expensive to undertake. As a result, owner‐managers tend to be highly resistant to voluntarily improving their environmental performance. Given that SMEs are such a vast sector of the economy, this perceived discord between profits and environmental protection is clearly a major barrier to the ‘greening’ of industry. This ESRC‐funded study has sought to unearth the underlying motivations for why SME owner‐managers in the UK resist or accept the idea that there are business benefits for improving their environmental performance. The findings from 40 in‐depth interviews with SME owners in the UK's construction and restaurant sectors and 12 ‘key informants’ from industry and government are presented, followed by a discussion of SME perspectives on the ‘business case’ for sustainability and its implications for policy‐makers. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

排涝泵站电动机严重受潮问题的探讨

文章根据某泵站实际运行管理情况,总结运行生产方面经验,分析泵站电动机严重受潮原因,并提出了处理意见,以加强设备保护,有效降低故障发生时设备的损坏率,保证设备长期安全运行。     

The Stewardship Role of Analyst Forecasts,and Discretionary Versus Non-discretionary Accruals

We examine the interaction between discretionary and non-discretionary accruals in a stewardship setting. Contracting includes multiple rounds of renegotiation based on contractible accounting information and non-contractible but more timely non-accounting information. We show that accounting regulation aimed at increasing earnings quality from a valuation perspective (earnings persistence) may have a significant impact on how firms rationally respond in terms of allowing accrual discretion in order to alleviate the impact on the stewardship role of earnings. Increasing the precision of more timely non-accounting information (analyst earnings forecasts) increases the ex ante value of the firm and reduces costly earnings management. There is an optimal level of reversible non-discretionary accrual noise introduced through revenue recognition policies. Tight rules-based accounting regulation, as opposed to leaving firms more choice over non-discretionary accrual policies, may lead firms to rationally respond by inducing costly earnings management. More generally, regulating both earnings persistence and the tightness of admissible auditing policies may not result in less equilibrium earnings management.     

Virtual product experience and customer participation—A chance for customer-centred,really new products

This paper demonstrates how customers can be virtually integrated into a company's innovation process. New interaction tools allow companies to gain valuable input from customers via the Internet. First, we explain why too closely listening to customers may turn out to be problematic for the development of real new products. The KANO model shows that it is difficult for customers to express their latent needs as well as those which are taken for granted. New virtual interaction tools and virtual product experiences help to overcome these problems and enable customers to transfer their explicit and implicit knowledge to innovation teams. How to apply virtual interaction tools and how to virtually integrate customers into the innovation process in practice is illustrated in detail in the AUDI case study. Our case study findings show that virtual customer integration provides valuable input for new product development. This paper introduces virtual customer integration as a new means of coming up with customer-centred, really new products.