From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies

This study proposes a sequence of monetary convergence to the eurozone, based on autonomous monetary policy rather than on an early application of the euro-peg. The gradual adjustment process begins with a relatively strict variant of inflation targeting, followed by flexible inflation targeting, and ends with exchange rate targeting. A model outlining the optimal mode of policy adjustment is presented. The analysis warns against a premature peg to the euro, which may instigate real currency appreciation, large capital inflows and their costly sterilization. The euro-peg can be introduced only when the candidates’ monetary authorities reach a certain degree of “foundational credibility”. The model of monetary convergence is followed by the empirical assessment of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic and Poland.     

WORLDOUTLOOK

German monetary unification is expected to result in a major expansion in autonomous demand from East Germany. In economic terms this is equivalent to a fiscal shock to West Germany broadly similar to that experienced in the US in the early years of Mr. Reagan's Presidency. Led by the Bundes bank, the monetary authorities' response is again likely to be a tightening of policy, leading to several years of high real interest rates. Overall, the combined monetary-fiscal shock should strengthen growth with only moderate increases in inflation. Germany is expected to grow very rapidly in the -per cent range for several years, with only a slight upturn in inflation. Japan, after a pause over the next year, should be able to return to its under lying growth path fairly quickly. However the US situation is more precarious. FUN adjustment from the previous Reagan shock has not yet taken place, leaving the US vulnerably dependent on increasingly scarce imported capital. In the absence of a significant *peace dividend: the result is the necessity of continued tight policy and sluggish growth in the American economy. US growth stays around 2 per cent, but this allows a substantial reduction in the current account deficit.     

Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in three small open economies with rigid exchange rate regimes in South East Europe – Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia – during the period 2000–2010. Specifically, we examine the size and speed of adjustment of bank lending rates to the changes in money market rates by employing various cointegration methods. In addition, we assess the stability of interest rate passthrough during the transition period, including the recent economic crisis. The results reveal the existence of a cointegrating relationship among some of the interest rates. We find that the long-run pass-through is far from complete with the exception of Macedonia. The shortrun adjustment of lending rates is also low and sluggish, implying that the domestic monetary policy may have a limited impact on the interest rate channel. Finally, the econometric investigation provides mixed evidence on the stability of the interest rate pass-through. Therefore, the overall findings of the paper support the view that in small open economies with rigid exchange rates the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy through the interest rate channel is quite limited.     

货币政策的数量型工具与价格型工具的调控绩效比较——来自动态随机一般均衡模型的证据

本文基于我国经济发展现实,构建了包含金融加速器、工资调整粘性以及消费惯性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,从货币政策的冲击效应、非政策冲击下宏观经济波动幅度以及中央银行损失函数等三个方面对比了不同货币工具的调控绩效,研究显示,价格型工具的调控绩效优于数量型工具,而稳健性分析也对此提供了进一步证明。因此,中央银行应积极地运用利率工具以更有效控制通货膨胀和实际产出波动,维护宏观经济稳定。     

Monetary policy,exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis

The objective of this paper is to assess whether the levels of unionization and the rigidity of exchange rates represent a constraint for the monetary policy in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, with a particular focus on the recent economic crisis. Toward that end, a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities is used. The results show that monetary policy responded counter-cyclically during the crisis only in countries with weak trade unions and in countries with flexible exchange rates, which indicates that fixed exchange rates and strong trade unions constrain monetary policy in countries in these regions. Also, the findings show that the main driver of price inflation in these countries is not economic activity, but wages, which are affected to a large extent by trade unions. Therefore, trade unions should be active partners in the decision-making processes in these countries.     

The effects of tax and regulatory changes on commercial bank dividend policy

The literature concerning the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA) is extensive, but generally does not consider dividend policy changes related to TRA’s passage. One exception is Casey et al., but that work omits banking. An examination of banks is especially apt given TRA’s changes in tax rates and municipal bond categorization. Results show bank dividend policy to be different from other industries, as banks show no relation to past growth rates, beta, or an insider ownership as Rozeff’s model holds. The results support the idea that the lower the taxes, the higher the payout which is contrary to the dividend irrelevancy argument. However, the results are not robust in tests using data from a later period meant to more closely examine changing capitalization requirements’ impact on dividend policy.     

The Dollar, the Oil Price and Policy Divergence

There is currently a clear divergence of policy between the United States, Japan and Germany. With the US in recession and concern growing over the severity of the slump, interest rates have been cut in a move to revive the economy. In contrast Japan and Germany are both experiencing strong growth and monetary policy remains tight to combat inflation. This divergence was seen most clearly when the Federal Reserve Board lowered its discount rate to 6 per cent on 1 February, the day after the Bundesbank had raised its Lombard rate to 9 per cent. With G7 increasingly concerned about domestic factors, less emphasis is placed upon stable exchange rates and as a result the dollar is at an all-time low. The last two G7 communiqués have stressed ‘stability oriented monetary policies’, an ambiguous phrase which fails to define ‘stability’ either in terms of exchange rates, inflation or growth. Thus both the German and Japanese policy of high interest rates to reduce inflation and low US interest rates aimed at stimulating the economy can be termed as ‘stability oriented’. This analysis focuses on these divergent policy responses in two alternative scenarios to the world forecast we presented last month. The first scenario considers what might happen if the Federal Reserve Board were to stimulate the US economy by further cuts in interest rates, whilst Japanese and German rates were unchanged in the face of inflationary pressures. This case may be relevant if the recent US loosening of monetary policy is not sufficient to encourage growth because of a ‘credit crunch’, so that a more expansionary policy is required by the Fed. As a consequence, policy diverges further and the dollar weakens. The second scenario focuses upon a reduction in inflationary pressures in Japan and Germany brought about by an oil price fall. In this case we assume that US policy is already loose enough to avoid a prolonged recession, but that German and Japanese monetary policy is relaxed as inflationary forces recede. In this case policies converge. Each scenario thus concentrates on one of !he two features which are causing the policy divergence amongst G3 countries: recession in the US, inflation in Germany and Japan.     

Video-sharing platform's optimal monetary incentive decisions considering motivation crowding-out effect

Considering the motivation crowding-out effect of monetary incentives, a game-theoretic model is built to examine a video-sharing platform's optimal incentive decisions. Results show that offering monetary incentives to contributors does not ensure an improvement in video quality nor an increase in the platform's profit. We identify four ideal market conditions for the platform to offer monetary incentives. We find that though the motivation crowding-out effect seems to undermine the effectiveness of monetary incentives, the ideal market conditions for offering monetary incentives do not always require this effect to be very weak; sometimes it even has to be medium.     

The Conduct of Monetary Policy Without Monetary Aggregates

A central dilemma for the monetary authorities is how to determine monetary policy. The increasing unreliability of monetary aggregates has led over the past few years to less concern for monetary targeting, both in the UK and elsewhere, and a greater influence for the exchange rate on monetary policy. But in the UK, most recently, there has been a move away from setting monetary policy in relation to the exchange rate and external considerations in favour of setting monetary policy in relation to domestic demand. Not surprisingly, this shift has occurred at a time of rising concern about domestic overheating. It illustrates the dilemma of whether monetary policy should be driven by domestic demand considerations or by external, exchange rate considerations. This dilemma is not just confined to the UK for it is a real source of conflict underlying the Louvre Accord and its successors that seek to determine G7 exchange rates in a cooperative manner. In what follows, we argue that exchange rate developments should have an appreciable influence on monetary policy, since this is helpful in attaining stable inflation. But we also suggest that this influence should not go too far, since this stability of inflation may be at the expense of stability of domestic demand and output. Targeting of exchange rates within narrow bands is unlikely to be desirable, unless fiscal policy can be used more flexibly to stabilize domestic demand. This suggests that, in the period up to the spring, the use of monetary policy to hold the £/JDM exchange rate within narrow limits may have been overdone. More seriously, international exchange rate agreements among the G7 countries are likely to founder under adverse market pressures, unless current imbalances in fiscal policy are adjusted. In the absence of greater flexibility in fiscal policy, policy makers will have to trade off domestic and exchange rate considerations in determining monetary policy. An important outstanding issue that needs further consideration is what indicators should be used for monetary policy, in a world in which monetary aggregates provide unreliable signals.     

Supervisory frameworks and monetary policy

One issue that the crisis has pushed to the forefront is the relationship between macroeconomics and finance, and how we think about the footings of financial stability. My comments this evening will focus briefly on this intersection of monetary policy and supervisory and regulatory issues. I am convinced that promoting financial stability requires a comprehensive approach that uses both macroprudential tools and the examination of individual firms, relying on the judgment of experienced examiners. In addition, I am skeptical of a clean “separation principle” that places financial stability squarely in the purview of the supervisors. Instead, I think monetary policymakers also need to maintain a careful eye on the financial system and how interest rate policy affects incentives for financial markets and institutions.     

The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach

The link between short-term policy rates and long-term rates elucidate the potential effectiveness of monetary policy. We examine the US term structure of interest rates using a pairwise econometric approach advocated by Pesaran (2007). Our empirical modelling strategy employs a probabilistic test statistic for the expectations hypothesis of the term structure based on the percentage of unit root rejections among all interest rate differentials. We find support for the expectations hypothesis and provide new insights into the nature of interest rate decoupling which are of value to policymakers. The maturity gap associated with interest rate pairs negatively impacts on the probability of stationarity, and also on the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. We further show that the speed of adjustment has become more sensitive to the maturity gap over time.     

Monetary policy with interest on reserves

I analyze monetary policy with interest on reserves and a large balance sheet. I show that conventional theories do not determine inflation in this regime, so I base the analysis on the fiscal theory of the price level. I find that monetary policy can peg the nominal rate, and determine expected inflation. With sticky prices, monetary policy can also affect real interest rates and output, though higher interest rates raise output and then inflation. The conventional sign requires a coordinated fiscal–monetary policy contraction. I show how conventional new-Keynesian models also imply strong monetary–fiscal policy coordination to obtain the usual signs. I address theoretical controversies. A concluding section places our current regime in a broader historical context, and opines on how optimal fiscal and monetary policy will evolve in the new regime.     

强制分红政策与公司代理成本:博弈模型与DID检验

不同于公司自觉的现金分红行为,强制分红政策在矫正公司分红行为的同时,会激起高管的消极抵制,所以它能否有效降低公司代理成本,尚难预料。为此,建立了一个混合策略完全信息静态博弈,说明了强制分红政策影响代理成本的作用机制,并将2011年出台的强制分红政策视为一个准自然实验,实证检验强制分红政策能否降低上市公司的代理成本。实证研究发现,强制分红政策能够显著抑制企业的代理成本。异质性检验结果表明,相对于中小板和微股利的上市公司而言,强制分红政策可以更加显著地降低那些主板上市公司和正常发放股利的公司的代理成本。研究结果不仅支持了股利代理成本理论,而且为进一步完善公司股利政策和保护中小股东权益提供了经验证据。     

Monetary Policy; Questions of Adequacy, Design and Presentation

In this article John Flemming considers three possible modifications to the presentation and design of monetary policy. He argues first that it is odd to forecast the target variable – inflation – when it is policy to do what is necessary to deliver the target. What would be interesting would be a forecast of what interest rates might prove necessary. Secondly he considers the possibility that with monetary policy dedicated to price stability and fiscal policy to paying for public expenditure – and stabilising output – a third control might be appropriate to stabilise the financial system. Finally, and overlapping with the last, he explores ways in which asset price changes might be reflected in a broader measure of inflation – as recently suggested by Charles Goodhart and the IMF.     

The effects of taxes and dividend policy on capital accumulation and macroeconomic behavior

This paper analyzes the macrodynamic effects of changes in various tax rates in an intertemporal optimizing framework. Two aspects emphasized include the role of dividend policy and the behavior of the stock market. Both permanent and temporary tax changes are considered, with the transitional adjustment paths being characterized in detail. The contrast between the short-run and long-run effects is highlighted. In particular, an increase in any of the tax rates will cause short-run employment to fall, and with the capital stock fixed instantaneously, the capital-labor ratio immediately rises. Over time, as the capital stock declines, the capital-labor ratio falls.     

Fed Credit Policy: What is a Lender of Last Resort?

Discussions of the Fed׳s financial crisis lending – and its role as “Lender of Last Resort” more generally – often overlook the distinction between monetary policy and credit policy. Central bank actions constitute monetary policy if they alter the quantity of the bank׳s monetary liabilities, but constitute credit policy if they alter the composition of the bank׳s portfolio without affecting the outstanding amount of monetary liabilities. In the 19th century, Henry Thornton and Walter Bagehot advocated Lender of Last Resort policies as a means of expanding the money supply when the demand for money surged in a crisis. In contrast, the Fed׳s recent crisis lending for the most part left its outstanding monetary liabilities unaffected, and thus represented credit policy, not Lender of Last Resort activity. Credit allocation in a crisis is potentially costly because it affects market participants׳ beliefs about the likelihood of future central bank rescues, which in turn reduces their incentive to protect themselves against financial distress and thus exacerbates financial instability. Credible limits on credit policy thus are critical to central banks׳ core policy mission. One path to establishing such limits is to create “living wills” that detail how to resolve large, complex financial firms without government support.     

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss of national monetary policy autonomy and internal exchange rate flexibility inside the EMU area. However, external exchange rate adjustment, i.e. adjustment of the euro exchange rate, remains a feasible adjustment mechanism. This paper analyses how internal and external exchange rate flexibility affect macroeconomic adjustment in EMU and non-EMU countries. To do so, a model is constructed in which three countries interact: two countries that decide to form a monetary union and a third country that does not participate in the monetary union. Numerical simulations of a representative example are used to characterise the adjustment dynamics induced by monetary and fiscal policies before and after the start of the EMU.     

投资者情绪、股利政策与公司价值研究

基于行为金融学背景对股利政策的信号传递作用进行的研究发现,在不同的投资者情绪条件下,股利政策信号传递的效应存在差异。在股市上涨时期,不同股利政策对投资者的投资决策的影响几乎没有显著差异;在股市下跌时期,现金股利成为投资者获得收益的主要来源,因此发放现金股利的公司受到市场追捧。因此,上市公司股利政策制定不仅要考虑自身情况,还需要考虑市场情绪。     

Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice

The experience of the U.S. economy during the mid-1930s, when short-term nominal interest rates were continuously close to zero, is sometimes taken as evidence that monetary policy was ineffective and the economy was in a “liquidity trap.” Close examination of the historical policy record for the period indicates that the evidence does not support such assertions. The incomplete and erratic recovery from the Great Depression can be traced to a failure to pursue consistently expansionary policy resulting from an incorrect understanding of monetary policy in an environment of very low short-term nominal interest rates. Commonalities with the Japanese experience during the late 1990s, and the inadequacy of short-term interest rates as indicators of the stance of monetary policy are discussed and a robust operating procedure for implementing monetary policy in a low-interest-rate environment by adjusting the maturity of targeted interest-rate instruments is described.     

现金股利政策信号传递研究

现金股利的逐步攀升与稳定是2000年以来资本市场出现的新情况,上市公司的这一行为标示了股利政策的变化。本文的研究表明:股利政策由股票股利逐渐演变为现金股利是制度演进的结果,在不成熟的资本市场条件下,由于投资者不具有现金股利对公司价值的较强信念,现金股利不能够成为传递价值信息的信号,当资本市场参与各方在发展过程中的行动,逐渐使得市场对于股利政策所体现出来的公司价值具有较强的信念时,现金股利就可以成为公司有效表达私人信息的工具。