Indexed versus nominal government debt under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Optimal indexation of long-term government debt is studied under two monetary policy regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). Under IT, full indexation is optimal because long run inflation risk is substantial due to base-level drift, making indexed bonds a better store of value than nominal bonds. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, optimal indexation is substantially lower because nominal bonds become a relatively better store of value. These results are robust to the PT target horizon, imperfect credibility of PT and model calibration, but the assumption that indexation is lagged is crucial. A key finding from a policy perspective is that indexation has implications for welfare comparisons of IT and PT.     

Does the bank risk concentration freeze the interbank system?

Probably, one test of the stability of the banking system is to evaluate how risky assets are distributed across banks’ portfolios and the implications for the contagion via interbank relations. This paper explores theoretically a bank sector with risks concentration and the functioning of interbank markets. It employs a simple model where banks are exposed to both credit and liquidity risk that suddenly correlate over the business cycle. We show that risk concentration makes interbank market breakdowns more likely and welfare monotonically decreases in risk concentration.     

Temperature shocks and welfare costs

This paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures. Using a standard VAR, we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable, negative and statistically significant impact on TFP, output, and labor productivity. We rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long-run temperature risk. In the model, macro-aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock, consistent with the novel evidence in the data. Such adverse effects are long-lasting. Over a 50-year horizon, a one-standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1.4 percentage points. Based on the model, we also show that temperature risk is associated with non-negligible welfare costs which amount to 18.4% of the agent’s lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on TFP. Finally, we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs. These welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation.     

Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare

We evaluate the welfare implications of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a small open-economy model that incorporates the financial accelerator coupled with liability dollarization. We solve the model up to a second-order approximation which allows us to rigorously address the relationship between uncertainty and welfare. We identify leverage and debt-to-GDP ratios above which an exchange rate peg is welfare superior to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results indicate that emerging market countries with even moderate levels of foreign currency-denominated debt may find it beneficial to stabilize their exchange rates.     

On the welfare cost of rare housing disasters

This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an OLG general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks. The likelihood and magnitude of housing disasters are inferred from historical housing market experiences in the OECD. The model shows that despite the rarity of housing disasters, Canadian households would willingly give up 6 percent of their non-housing consumption each year to eliminate the housing disaster risk. The welfare evaluation of this risk, however, varies considerably across age groups. The risk translates into a welfare loss of as much as 16 percent of annual non-housing consumption for the old, but a welfare gain of 2 percent for the young. This asymmetry stems from the fact that, compared to the old, younger households suffer less from house price declines in disaster periods, due to smaller holdings of housing assets, and benefit from lower house prices in normal periods, due to the negative price effect of disaster risk.     

Volatility risk and economic welfare

This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. The model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level shocks. In contrast to level risk, which is always welfare reducing for a risk-averse household, volatility risk can increase or decrease welfare, depending on model parameters. When calibrated to U.S. data, the model finds that the welfare cost of volatility risk is largely negligible under plausible model parameterizations.     

Migration consequences of welfare reform

We investigate whether recent changes in welfare policy affect the migration of low-educated unmarried mothers. Estimates indicate that welfare reform is associated with an increase in employment-related intrastate migration, and a decrease in non-employment related migration, both within and between states. The net effect was a small increase in intrastate migration and a small decrease in interstate migration. The close link between migration and employment suggests that welfare reform has motivated low-income women to move for economic reasons. In general, welfare policy appears to have a much larger effect on residential location because of its relationship to employment than because of benefit differences between states.     

Wages, Welfare Benefits and Migration

Differences in economic opportunities give rise to strong migration incentives, across regions within countries, and across countries. In this paper we focus on responses to differences in welfare benefits across States. We apply the model developed in Kennan and Walker (2008), which emphasizes that migration decisions are often reversed, and that many alternative locations must be considered. We model individual decisions to migrate as a job search problem. A worker starts the life-cycle in some home location and must determine the optimal sequence of moves before settling down. The model is sparsely parameterized. We estimate the model using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979). Our main finding is that income differences do help explain the migration decisions of young welfare-eligible women, but large differences in benefit levels provide surprisingly weak migration incentives.     

Highway franchising and real estate values

It has become increasingly common worldwide to auction the construction and operation of new highways to the bidder that charges the lowest toll. The resulting highway franchises often entail large increases in the value of adjoining land developments. We build a model to assess the welfare implications of allowing large developers to participate in these auctions. Developers bid more aggressively than independent construction companies because lower tolls increase the value of their land holdings. Therefore developer participation unambiguously increases welfare, yet this increase is not necessarily monotonic in the number of developers participating. Welfare also increases when large developers can bid jointly.     

Family expenditures post-welfare reform in the UK: Are low-income families starting to catch up?

In this paper, we provide evidence on the question of how the UK government's welfare reforms since 1998 have affected the material well-being of children in low-income families. We examine changes in expenditure patterns and ownership of durable goods for low- and higher-income families between the pre-reform period (1995-1998) and the post-reform period (2000-2003), using data from the Family Expenditure Survey. The methodological approach is a difference-in-difference-in-difference analysis that exploits the fact that age variation in the reforms favoured low-income families over higher income ones and families with children age under 11 over those with older children. We find that low-income families with children are catching up to more affluent families, in their expenditures and their possession of durable goods. Moreover, expenditures on child-related items are increasing faster than expenditures on other items.     

Noncompliance and the effects of the minimum wage on hours and welfare in competitive labor markets

This paper shows that increases in the minimum wage rate can have ambiguous effects on the working hours and welfare of employed workers in competitive labor markets. The reason is that employers may not comply with the minimum wage legislation and instead pay a lower subminimum wage rate. If workers are risk neutral, we prove that working hours and welfare are invariant to the minimum wage rate. If workers are risk averse and imprudent (which is the empirically likely case), then working hours decrease with the minimum wage rate, while their welfare may increase.     

Welfare migration in Europe

The enlargement of the European Union has increased concerns about the role of generous welfare transfers in attracting migrants. This paper explores the issue of welfare migration across the countries of the pre-enlargement European Union and finds a significant but small effect of the generosity of welfare on migration decisions. This effect, however, is still large enough to distort the distribution of migration flows and, possibly, offset the potential benefits of migration as an inflow of mobile labour into countries with traditionally immobile native workers.     

Vertical structure and the risk of rent extraction in the electricity industry

This paper studies how competition and vertical structure jointly determine generating capacities, retail prices, and welfare in the electricity industry. Analyzing a model in which demand is uncertain and retailers must commit to retail prices before they buy electricity in the wholesale market, we show that welfare is highest if competition in generation and retailing is combined with vertical separation. Vertically integrated generators choose excessively high retail prices and capacities to avoid rent extraction in the wholesale market when their retail demand exceeds their capacity. Vertical separation eliminates the risk of rent extraction and yields lower retail prices.     

Frequency competition and environmental costs: An application to European air transport liberalization

In this paper, we analyze symmetric frequency equilibria in airline markets; these equilibria are derived as multiproduct oligopoly solutions in a spatial competition model. Competitive equilibria are compared with a regulated equilibrium; in order to assess the welfare implications of European air transport liberalization, we compute numerical solutions using data for 21 regulated European interstate routes in 1990. We conclude that, following the introduction of competition in these markets, consumer welfare is significantly higher due to frequency increases and fare decreases. Profits decrease and, as a result of higher departure frequencies, environmental costs increase. However, the gains in consumer welfare more than compensate the decrease in profits and the rise in environmental costs.     

Mexican integration into the North American free trade zone

Mexican integration into the North American free trade zone is modeled as removing the tariff on Mexican imports of manufacturing goods. Using a theoretical model, it is shown that this increases welfare through production, consumption and employment gains. The results are derived by nesting the theory of customs unions, and the Harris-Todaro type intersectoral labor migration model into a unified framework.     

The new urban economics: An evaluation

This paper reviews and evaluates the branch of urban economic theory labelled the “New Urban Economics.” This sub-field attempts to integrate welfare economics and urban economics within a general equilibrium framework using mathematical methods of analysis. Particular attention is given to the assumptions behind these models (one-dimensional space, monocentricity, homogeneous households, exclusive zoning, long-run equilibrium, etc.) and their implications. Extensions of the basic model—the treatment of utility, road congestion, other externalities, dynamics and optimum geography—are also examined.     

Decentralized Welfare: Will There Be Underprovision?

This paper develops an Asymmetric Nash Equilibrium model of welfare provision by states when the benefit payment is a local public good and a fixed population of welfare recipients distributes itself between states with logistic “migration” function. The model shows that state size is an important demand shifter across states because it alters the supply elasticity of recipients. The model provides estimates of how the degree of benefit under provision varies with this migration elasticity. Other demand instruments (such as taxpayer resources and “generosity”) likewise generate positive correlation between benefits and recipients, while supply shifters generate negative correlation between benefits and recipients. The model's predictions are closely matched empirically, when examining the reduced form impact of these instruments on the pattern of welfare benefits and recipients across states. Using these impacts to assign the instruments to either supply or demand sides of the model, it is possible to estimate the model's structural elasticities. These turn out to be high enough so that simulated solutions to the model generate considerable welfare underprovision and thus raise concern about a race to the bottom with decentralized control over AFDC.     

A comparison of household mobility for owned manufactured,traditional owned,and rental units using the American Housing Survey

This study employs data from the national sample of the American Housing Survey to analyze the mobility decisions of families in owned manufactured housing in comparison to families in traditional owned homes and rental units. Specifically a continuous time probability model (CTM) is used to estimate the likelihood of these families moving over the period of 1993–2001. In general, the empirical work suggests that families occupying both owned manufactured housing and traditional owned housing are associated with lower probabilities of moving than comparable households in rental units. Of particular interest is the fact that, ceteris paribus, families in both traditional owned homes and owned manufactured housing exhibit negative duration dependence, or a decreasing probability of moving over time, while for those in rental units duration dependence is positive. These differences are important because of their potential implications for long-term neighborhood stability and, as such, the viability of manufactured housing as an affordable housing alternative for lower income families.     

Economic geography with tariff competition

A simple two-country model of economic geography is constructed in order to examine the effect of tariff competition on the spatial distribution of manufacturing activities as well as on welfare. We show that when the transport cost is small, tariff competition with firm migration leads to a core-periphery economy, where one of the two countries imposes no tariff in Nash equilibrium. We also show that when the transport cost is sufficiently large, both countries impose a positive tariff, which decreases the welfare of both countries.     

THE BENEFITS OF MIGRATION

This article focuses on the potential benefits of migration. Using the author's previous research on remittances and return migration, some of the welfare gains that can stem from the migratory process are highlighted. In the first part of the article, the impact of remittances on child well‐being in Vietnam is investigated. Both the incidence of child labour and school attendance rates in remittance recipient households are assessed. In the second part of the article, the contribution made by Tunisian return migrants to the development of their country of origin is examined. Both analyses suggest that, if certain conditions are met, migration can produce beneficial outcomes for the people and the countries involved in the process.