Indivisible labor implies chaos

Summary. We study a simple infinite horizon model with indivisible labor. We characterize the optimal plans under the assumptions that and that , where R is the gross interest rate and is the discount factor. We show that under those assumptions, optimal plans are almost always asymptotically nonperiodic unless initial wealth is excessively small or large. Received: May 25, 1999; revised version: June 24, 1999     

情绪波动和资产价格波动

投资者的情绪波动对于理解资产价格的波动有着重要的意义 ,但是已有研究对情绪波动的刻画还过于简单。本文在Mehra和Sah( 2 0 0 2 )对情绪波动研究的基础之上 ,更加全面地描述了投资者情绪波动 ,使用风险规避系数、跨期替代弹性和主观贴现因子三个投资者主观偏好参数的波动来描述投资者情绪波动。本文研究了情绪波动对股票价格和债券价格波动率的影响。结果表明 ,投资者的情绪波动对股票价格波动的影响要远大于对债券价格波动的影响 ;影响股票价格波动的情绪波动分别是主观贴现因子、跨期替代弹性和风险规避系数的波动。这些结果可以帮助我们理解股票价格的波动性和债券价格的平滑性。     

地表起伏对区域发展成本影响浅析——以贵州为例

地表起伏度,即地表起伏的程度和变化频率。它对区域生产、生活、基础设施建设等社会经济发展的各方面带来重大影响。阐述了地表起伏度概念内涵,探讨了地表起伏度对区域发展的影响途径,并着重以贵州为例,初步估算了地表起伏对贵州区域发展成本的影响程度：因地表起伏贵州每年将增加公共财政支出约658．78亿元,为相关政府部分的财政预算安排和转移支付提供某些参考。     

怎样解释中国经济波动： 基于BCA的分析

本文应用Business Cycle Accounting（BCA）方法,分析效率、劳动、投资和政府消费等扭曲性楔子对中国经济波动的影响。基于一个基本新古典增长模型,本文先从总量数据中估算出这些楔子的实现值,再分别将它们反馈到模型中以进行模拟实验;实验结果表明,只有效率楔子对解释中国经济波动是最重要的。这个发现为解释中国经济波动提供了一种新思路——让经济冲击或经济结构因素产生全要素生产率（TFP）波动,借此来引起其他相关变量的波动;这样建立的模型等价于带有效率楔子的基本增长模型,因此能够解释总量数据的大部分波动,而它们揭示的经济波动机制更有意义。经济周期政策应该更加关注TFP的变动,因为能够影响TFP的政策措施才能更有效地作用于经济波动。     

MARKET POWER,PRICE ADJUSTMENT,AND INFLATION*

We study a monetary search economy in which endogenous fluctuations in market power driven by changes in consumers' search intensity determine the extent of price adjustment to movements in productivity and the money growth rate. A calibrated version of the economy exhibits countercyclical fluctuations in markups and is consistent with the observed incomplete response of nominal prices to cost movements associated with productivity fluctuations and to changes in the money growth rate. Furthermore, a higher average rate of inflation results in a lower average markup and increases the sensitivity of prices to fluctuations in either productivity or money growth.     

经济波动对经济增长的减损效应:中国的经验证据

本文在简单文献回顾的基础上,利用GARCH和TARCH-M模型分析了中国经济波动对经济长期增长水平的影响.得出:对外开放和市场化改革不仅提高了中国经济的长期增长水平,而且也降低了经济增长的波动风险;中国经济波动对长期经济增长具有减损效应,但统计上并不显著,同时,与Stilianos et al.(2004)的分析结论相一致,中国经济波动对经济增长的减损效应在经济波动的不同阶段具有明显的对称效应.本文的政策含义是,继续扩大对外开放和深化市场化改革,加强宏观调控,对保持中国经济的持续稳定增长无疑具有非常重要的意义.     

Uninsured idiosyncratic risk, liquidity constraints and aggregate fluctuations

Summary. I study the role played by uninsured idiosyncratic risk and liquidity constraints in the propagation of aggregate fluctuations. To this purpose, I compare the aggregate fluctuations of two model economies that differ in their insurance technologies only. In one of these model economies liquidity constrained households vary their holdings of a nominally denominated asset in order to buffer an uninsured idiosyncratic shock to their individual production opportunities. In the other economy every idiosyncratic component of risk can be costlessly insured. I find that the limited insurance technology implies fluctuations in output that are 20% larger, fluctuations in hours relative to output that are 9% larger, fluctuations in consumption relative to output that are 18% smaller, and a correlation of hours and productivity that is 15% smaller than those that obtain under the full insurance technology. Received: March 6, 1996; revised version August 15, 1996     

损失规避与经济波动的福利成本研究

目前经济波动的福利成本研究均建立在基于消费的效用函数基础上，而引入收入波动后我们发现：收入波动导致的福利成本才是更为重要的因素。本文定义的偏好具有损失规避的特点，在比较温和的参数设定下，考虑了收入波动后得到的福利成本指标A在1．4％--13．4％之间，比此前各种技术方法得到的A值提高了1—2个数量级。采用中国转型期以来的统计数据，消除短期波动的福利效果等同于将消费的长期增长率再提高约0．25个百分点，这表明如能进一步稳定经济的运行，仍会带来可观的福利提升。     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

Fixed-term contracts as a source of labour demand fluctuations

Employment fluctuations are one of the central issues in the business cycle literature. The fluctuations depend crucially not only on the economic conditions but also on the labour market institutions. Since most previous studies have assumed indefinite-term contracts (ITC) implicitly, the implications of fixed-term contracts (FTC) on dynamic labour demand have been rather overlooked. This article investigates dynamic labour demand of a firm with FTC to show that the employment fluctuations under FTC can be totally different from those under ITC. In particular, a productivity shock that takes place at a future date generates the current fluctuations in employment under FTC, while it does not under ITC.     

中国改革历程中的产出和价格波动：货币所扮演的角色

中国经济正在其改革历程中经历着经济增长和通货膨胀的周期性波动。关于货币在这些波动中所起的作用，经济学家有着不同的观点。本文运用基于交易方程式的结构化VEC模型，对这些观点进行了探讨。我们发现，在长期，货币对产出和价格的变化做出适应性调整，而并非这些变化的原因。而在短期，价格变动要93因于那些对货币和价格有持久影响而对真实产出没有持久影响的冲击。这些冲击对多数的货币波动负责，并且强烈地影响产出。     

The impact of coal price fluctuations on China’s economic output

Due to the important role of coal in China’s macroeconomic growth, the price of coal significantly influences its economic output. Employing a VAR model, a cointegration test and a state-space model of time-varying variables, this article analyses the influence of coal price fluctuations on the volume and structure of China’s economic output, including both the strength and the time delay of such influence. This article further explores the corresponding relationships between coal price fluctuations and variations in the effects of these fluctuations to analyse the asymmetric influence of coal price fluctuations on China’s macroeconomy. Coal price fluctuations exerted significant long-term positive effects and short-term negative effects on China’s output variables, with an average delay of 11 months; they had positive effects on investment and consumption over the long term and an increasingly negative effect on imports and exports. The average delays were 9 months for investment, 6.5 months for consumption and 10 months for imports and exports. There was an asymmetric correlation between coal price fluctuations and the time-varying elasticity of their impact on GDP. The results in this study are consistent with the actual operating circumstances of the Chinese economy.     

中国信贷市场利率对经济波动的冲击效应研究

笔者基于VAR模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)信贷市场利率对投资、消费均处于负向冲击并有时滞,但对投资的影响更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。(2)投资波动对产出波动起主要作用;产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限;投资波动影响消费波动的程度远远大于后者对前者。基于这些分析结论,笔者提出若干政策建议。     

Relative price fluctuations in a two-sector model with imperfect competition

Counter-cyclical fluctuations in the price of investment in consumption units are often attributed to investment-specific technology shocks. This paper looks at an additional source for such fluctuations: sector-specific markup variations, the idea being that pro-cyclical competition and the higher variability of investment compared to consumption pushes down the relative price of investment during expansions. I find that such endogenous movements in sector-specific markups can account for up to about one quarter of the observed fluctuations in the price of investment.     

1980-2006年东亚经济波动的原因——基于面板VAR的分析

东亚经济波动及其协同性的存在已得到学术界的认同,文章通过构建面板向量自回归模型,检验了6种冲击对东亚经济波动的影响,并考察了宏观经济各变量在面时冲击时的动态反应,以及汇率和通货膨胀对经济波动的传导作用.研究表明,国内的供给冲击、汇率冲击,国外的利率冲击、需求冲击都会对东亚经济波动产生较大影响,汇率是外部冲击的重要传导渠道,而通胀是内部冲击的重要传导渠道.随着东亚经济一体化进程的推进和金融市场不断开放,东亚各经济体对外部需求变动和世界利率变动所产生的冲击应予以重视.     

Labor contracts,informational discrepancies and the role of monetary policy

This paper examines output stabilization and inflationary consequences of short-run monetary policy. The macroeconomic framework incorporates informational discrepancies between the monetary authority and economic agents who form long-term labor contracts. Economic agents are assumed to form rational expectations of the rate of inflation. One result of the analysis is that optimal monetary policy rules for stabilizing fluctuations in output and inflation are independent of the structure of the wage contracts and the degree of informational discrepancy. A second proposition shows that the monetary authority can actually make use of specific knowledge concerning the contract structure to reduce fluctuations in the rate of change in output. In particular, the monetary authority can reduce fluctuations in output below those occurring in a frictionless system by increasing fluctuations in the rate of inflation.     

Fiscal policy and the Spanish business cycle

A main result of the RBC literature is that technological factors drive fluctuations of macroeconomic variables around its long-run growth path. Nevertheless, it has been shown that in some countries fluctuations of some fiscal variables may explain some of the business cycle fluctuations. In this paper I show that a result of this sort can be obtained for the Spanish economy. Specifically, I use both technological and fiscal shocks to reproduce the observed volatility of hours of work to output, hours of work to average productivity, and the negative correlation between hours and average productivity.     

中国改革历程中的产出和价格波动:货币所扮演的角色

中国经济正在其改革历程中经历着经济增长和通货膨胀的周期性波动.关于货币在这些波动中所起的作用,经济学家有着不同的观点.该文运用基于交易方程式的结构化 VEC 模型,对这些观点进行了探讨.我们发现,在长期,货币对产出和价格的变化做出适应性调整,而并非这些变化的原因.而在短期,价格变动要归因于那些对货币和价格有持久影响而对真实产出没有持久影响的冲击.这些冲击对多数的货币波动负责,并且强烈地影响产出.     

The labor wedge: MRS vs. MPN

Do fluctuations of the labor wedge, defined as the gap between the firm's marginal product of labor (MPN) and the household's marginal rate of substitution (MRS), reflect fluctuations of the gap between the MPN and the real wage or fluctuations of the gap between the real wage and the MRS? For many countries and most forcefully for the United States, fluctuations of the labor wedge predominantly reflect fluctuations of the gap between the real wage and the MRS. As a result, business cycle theories of the labor wedge should primarily focus on improving the household side of the labor market. Explanations of the labor wedge based on departures of the representative firm's MPN from the real wage are rejected by the data because the labor share of income is not strongly procyclical.     

粮价波动与国家粮食安全问题

文章首先对新中国成立以来我国七次粮价波动的基本特征进行了分析,在对粮价上涨的主要原因较为细致深入分析的基础之上,从中提出了减少粮价波动,确保我国国家粮食安全的几点具体的政策和建议。