Social choice and telling the truth

This paper presents a straightforward proof of Gibbard's theorem that any non-manipulable choice rule with at least three outcomes is dictatorial. The proof is similar to proofs of Arrow's impossibility theorem, but does not rely on that theorem. The last part of the paper discusses the relation between Gibbard's and Arrow's theorems. The paper contains no new result, and is intended to make this important area of social choice theory accessible to a wider audience.     

Monopolistic competition,aggregation of competitive information,and the amount of product differentiation

Consider an industry with a large number of homogeneous firms. Each firm's profits are a function of its own strategy and the strategies the other firms select. Suppose other firms' strategies enter into each firm's profit function only through one or more statistics. For example, average price in the market may parameterize every firm's profit function. We prove that, as a general rule, the industry's firms will in equilibrium follow at most M + 1 distinct strategies, where M is the number of statistics by which competitors' strategies affect each firm's profits.     

Consumer's surplus and income redistribution

In reformulating consumer's surplus analysis, Hicks focused on a single household. The present essay extends the analysis to many households in a manner that seems not yet to have been explored systematically: by integrating consumer's surplus with the social welfare function. This is done in a general, as distinct from the usual partial, equilibrium context. A resulting formula, relating the community's gain from a resource reallocation in a novel way to the associated changes in volume and distribution of income, inclusive of surpluses, may facilitate applications. The analysis may also clarify some recurring issues regarding consumer's surplus.     

Strategy-proofness and Arrow's conditions: Existence and correspondence theorems for voting procedures and social welfare functions

Consider a committee which must select one alternative from a set of three or more alternatives. Committee members each cast a ballot which the voting procedure counts. The voting procedure is strategy-proof if it always induces every committee member to cast a ballot revealing his preference. I prove three theorems. First, every strategy-proof voting procedure is dictatorial. Second, this paper's strategy-proofness condition for voting procedures corresponds to Arrow's rationality, independence of irrelevant alternatives, non-negative response, and citizens' sovereignty conditions for social welfare functions. Third, Arrow's general possibility theorem is proven in a new manner.     

Income instability,terms of trade,and the choice of exchange rate regime

In this article terms of trade fluctuations, which constitute an important source of income instability in many LDC's, are decomposed into three principal components: (a) shifts in world market conditions, (b) shifts in home market conditions and (c) changes in exchange rates. The appropriateness of a ‘basket peg’ is then analyzed in terms of a country's net export-side market power and a weighting formula is derived which would offset variations in third countries' exchange rates on the home country's terms of trade. Initial empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that basket pegs are usually adopted by countries with net export-side market power.     

Information processing and jury decisionmaking

We develop a model to explore the information processing function that jury deliberation and its analogues perform. The central question we ask is: How much better could a jury possibly perform if it optimally used the collective information available to it than if it decides cases by a simple majority vote before any deliberation or information sharing occurs? It is shown how the answer depends on a number of considerations, including the correlation among jurors' observations, the jurors' assessments of the relative importance of type I and type II errors compared with society's assessment of those errors, and differences in jurors' abilities.     

Candidate reputations and the ‘incumbency effect’

A major shortcoming of the classical median voter model is that its central prediction — convergence of platforms to the median voter's ideal — is seldom observed. One reason is that the classical model neglects the importance of voter expectations as a determinant of votes. Here we associate voters' expectations about candidates with past as well as current candidate pronouncements, and assume that incumbents whose actions are consistent with their ‘reputations’ are perceived as less risky than challengers. In equilibrium candidates choose distinct platforms. Typically neither adopts the median voter's ideal point. Either candidate may win depending on how well the incumbent's reputation reflects current voter tastes and how relatively ‘risky’ the electorate perceives the challenger to be.     

Consumer prices and private consumption in Poland and Austria

Starting from a bilateral comparison of consumption levels in Poland and Austria in 1964, 1973, and 1978, the authors calculate the implicit price indexes for both countries. The confrontation of the implicit and official price indexes seems to prove that official data grossly understate price inflation and overstate real growth of consumption in Poland. The causes of this discrepancy are mainly seen in the systemic difficulty of properly measuring price changes in Poland's “shortage economy.” This problem may arise in all international comparison between centrally planned and market economies when official price indices are used.     

On Hegel,imperialism, and structural stagnation

The essentials of the economic theory of imperialism à la Hobson-Luxemburg are anticipated in two paragraphs of Hegel's Philosophy of Right. Marx did not pay attention to this aspect of Hegel's thought, perhaps because it implied a longer survival probability for capitalism than Marx cared to acknowledge. The second part of the paper shows the formal similarity between the economic theory of imperialism and the theory of structural stagnation that was proposed in Latin America in the 1960s. The blindspots and early demise of that theory have the same psychological root as Marx's neglect of Hegel's insights.     

Entrepreneurs' capital accumulation behavior and long-run equilibrium

The purpose of this paper is to derive some interesting results on long-run equilibrium by considering entrepreneurs' capital accumulation behavior explicitly. Our framework is a two class, two production sector model in order to analyze the dynamic stability properties in the cases of Kaldor's saving assumption and Pasinetti's saving assumption. We shall introduce a further adjustment mechanism: the speeding up (slowing down) of capital accumulation in that sector in which the rate of profit is higher (lower).     

Feles: The functionalized extended linear expenditure system: Theory,estimation procedures and application to individual household consumption expenditures involving socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics

This article introduces the Functionalized Extended Linear Expenditure System, FELES, a new extension on Lluch's familiar Extended Linear Expenditure System. Household individual expenditures with respect to ‘subsistence expenditures’ and ‘partial marginal propensities to consume’ are made explicitly dependent on socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics in a system-wide approach. A restricted maximum likelihood estimator for relatively small systems with few explanatory variables and an iterative estimation procedure for larger systems with an extensive set of explanatory variables are proposed. The complete FELES then is applied to cross-sectional data with more than 47,000 German households. Stone's LES and Lluch's ELES are first quantified too on a German data base of this extent.     

Reputation and imperfect information

A common observation in the informal literature of economics (and elsewhere) is that is multistage “games,” players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being “tough” or “benevolent” or something else. But this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game-theoretic analyses of finite games, such as Selten's finitely repeated chain-store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma. We reexamine Selten's model, adding to it a “small” amount of imperfect (or incomplete) information about players' payoffs, and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the “reputation effect” that one intuitively expects.     

Trade,structure and linkages in Costa Rica: An input-output approach

Input-output tables for Costa Rica are used first to assess the country's trade performance; it is argued that trade with the rest of Central America has produced a Costa Rican comparative advantage in consumer durables. The paper then uses the input–output tables to examine the economy's structure, which is shown to be block triangular. Finally, measures of linkages are derived from the tables and a critique of the growth-inducing linkage mechanism is presented.     

On the theory of the firm under uncertainty and the cost of capital

The interaction between the firm's productive behavior under uncertainty and its cost of capital is shown to affect its optimal output. The source of this interaction is linked to the firm's degree of operating leverage.     

The cost and composition of Indian exports

India has a history of export promotion policies extending back into the 1950's. These policies seem to have been applied without regard to comparative advantage and this study indicates the high cost of India's disregard for economic efficiency. Using the domestic resource cost concept as the criterion for measuring relative export efficiency, the present structure of Indian exports is examined on both the sectoral and product level. The results show not only an unacceptably wide divergence in the domestic resource cost of exports on the margin - indicating a misallocation of resources in the export sector - but also an export incentive system which fails to select India's most efficient exports.     

Pareto vs. Wicksell on adjustment costs in consumption: A reformulation

Pareto's adjustment cost model generating cyclical consumption patterns and Wicksell's observation that it contains mathematical errors are analyzed. An alternative model capturing the essence of Pareto's model and meeting Wicksell's criticisms is proposed where it is shown that consumption and leisure patterns may be cyclical over time.     

Identification of technological threats and opportunities by firms

A number of models and approaches are being developed in attempts to anticipate the nature and direction of technological change and its impact on the firm. Under what conditions might we expect firms to use one or more of these models in an organized way and under what conditions might we expect the resulting information to be used in the firm's planning process? The basic hypothesis of this paper is that effective use by firms of models for anticipating technological change can be explained based upon: the nature and extent of uncertainty in the firm's environment,the firm's strategy for growth, and the degree of definition of communication networks (both formal and informal) within the firm and between the firm and its environment. Technology planners and managers of 29 firms in a variety of industries have been interviewed concerning the ways in which technological threats and opportunities are identified and analyzed and the ways in which this information is integrated into the firm's normal planning cycle. A follow-up questionnaire is being designed to be sent to a larger number of respondents.     

Mother's education and child development: Evidence from the compulsory school reform in China

This paper investigates the causal impact of mother's schooling on various outcomes of adolescent development by exploiting the temporal and geographical variations in the enforcement of compulsory schooling laws in China. Using data from China Family Panel Studies, we find that mother's education increases adolescents’ school enrollment, math test scores, college aspiration, and internal locus of control related to education. Mother's education also improves adolescent mental health status and reduces the incidence of underweight. We also find considerable gender heterogeneity in the effects of mother's education. The results further indicate that mother's education leads to an increase in family resources for children and an improvement in maternal mental health and parenting, which we interpret as potential mechanisms behind our findings.     

The socialist labor-managed firm and bank-financed investment: Some theoretical issues

Under a labor-managed system of the Yugoslav type of 1965–1971, the process of capital formation is subject to special difficulties, linked to the structure of property rights. Workers possess neither permanent nor transferable claims on capital assets but are, nevertheless, required by law to maintain the value of the firm's initial capital stock and of any additions to it. The law is intended to protect the nation's capital stock but is ill designed for this purpose. Its immediate effect is to reduce the collective's willingness to undertake bank-financed investment, and thus it promotes inefficient intertemporal allocation.     

OPEC: Retrospective and prospects 1973–1990

Using a relatively simple economic model of the world oil market, we review what has happened since the price quadrupling of 1973–1974, comparing the model's results with actual historical data. We also make projections through 1990, assuming that OPEC's real price is either held constant or determined by a target-capacity-utilization pricing rule.