Testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses

In this paper we examine the tests of the new classical rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses undertaken by Leiderman (1980) using a model of money growth and unemployment for the United States developed by Barro (1977). Employing the data used in the studies by Barro and Leiderman we are able to construct an alternative model of money growth and unemployment against which the Barro-Leiderman model is rejected along with the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and structural neutrality.     

Temporal risk and the nature of induced preferences

It has been known since the work of H. Markowitz (“Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments,” Yale Univ. Press, 1959) and J. Mossin (Amer. Econ. Rev.59 (1969), 172–174) that even an individual whose underlying preferences satisfy the von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms will not choose over delayed (i.e., “temporal”) risky prospects in a manner which can be modelled as expected utility maximizing. Since most economically important instances of risk taking (insurance, real investment, agriculture, career training) involve delayed as opposed to immediately resolved risk, the standard use of expected utility theory to model such decisions must be questioned. In this paper the technique of “generalized expected utility analysis” (M. J. Machina, Econometrica50 (1982), 277–323) and the theory of support functions (R. T. Rockafellar, “Convex Analysis,” Princeton Univ. Press, 1970) are applied to exactly model and hence determine the nature of preferences over temporal risky prospects.     

IS-LM stability and economic policy effectiveness: A note

Accepting the findings of Weber (1970) and Yarrow (1975), Cebula finds that conventional fiscal policy has its usual positive effect on the level of income while monetary policy has a negative impact. This paper shows that if a budget constraint of the specific, simplified form G ? T = ΔM is added to the model, the results differ from Cebula's.     

On the informational efficiency of the competitive resource allocation process

The purpose of this paper is to formalize the competitive process as a parametric process, and then prove the minimality of its message space among the message spaces for a broad class of parametric processes that includes the class of processes considered by Hurwicz (in “Studies in Resource Allocation Processes” (K. J. Arrow and L. Hurwicz, Eds.), pp. 413–423, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1977), Mount and Reiter (J. Econ. Theory6 (1974), 161–192), and Osana (J. Econ. Theory17 (1978), 66–78). The proof of this result turns crucially on the “asymmetry property” (which is stronger than the well-known “uniqueness property” of Hurwicz) and on an injectiveness lemma which is applicable to parametric processes.     

Super-modularity: Applications to convex games and to the greedy algorithm for LP

L. S. Shapley (Internat. J. Game Theory1 (1971), 11–26) showed that if a game is convex, then all the marginal worth vectors are members of the core. J. Edmonds (in “Combinatorial Structures and Their Applications” (R. Guy et al., Eds.), pp. 69–87, Gordon & Breach, New York, 1970) considered a class of linear programming problems for which the greedy algorithm works. The present paper unifies these studies, and establishes the converse of each theorem.     

Supportability and anonymous equity

W. W. Sharkey and L. G. Telser (J. Econom. Theory18 (1978), 23–37) feel that invulnerability of a natural monopoly to the threat of competitive entry is well reflected in the concept of supportability. G. R. Faulhaber and S. B. Levinson (Amer. Econom. Rev.71 (1981), 1083–1091) point out that supportability is necessary for the achievability of anonymous equity, i.e., absence of consumer subsidies in public enterprise pricing. This paper reconciles supportability with market clearance and shows that supportability is sufficient for the achievability of anonymous equity.     

Stability of nonlinear homogeneous difference equations

A class of nonlinear homogeneous difference equations is considered in which each coefficient is a homogeneous function of variables. A sufficient condition of relative stability is presented using a nonlinear generalization of the Perron-Frobenius theorem due to Morishima (“Equilibrium, Stability and Growth,” Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1964).     

Habit formation and long-run utility functions

This paper extends the work on habit formation of Pollak [Habit formation and dynamic demand functions. J. Polit. Econ. (1970)] and provides a critical counterexample to a conjecture of von Weizsäcker [Notes on endogenous changes of tastes, J. Econ. Theory (1971)] concerning the existence of a “long-run utility function.“ A linear specification of habit formation is applied to a general system of demand functions with linear Engel curves. It is shown that there exists a utility function which rationalizes the long-run demand functions if and only if they are the steady-state solution to a system of short-run demand functions generated by an additive utility function.     

Adjustment time and economic growth revisited

Since the theory of the adjustment time in a neoclassical growth model was first published close to two decades ago [Sato Sato, February 1963, Sato, June 1964], there have appeared a number of interesting articles dealing with different aspects of adjustment time and economic growth. The purpose of this note is to verify the original conclusions in the framework of variable elasticity of substitutions (VES) production functions. All of the other assumptions are preserved. The results indicate that the original assertion concerning the length of time needed for 90 percent of the adjustment applies to a non-Cobb-Douglas production function as well. “Vicinity” (90%) of the new equilibrium can be reached only after a sufficiently long period of time—approximately 100 years on the average. Furthermore, the pattern of adjustment for this model is very similar to that of the original model.     

The nonneutrality of money and employment rates: Tobin and taxation effects

This paper demonstrates sufficient conditions for a system of income taxation to create a negative relationship between the steady-state rates of fully anticipated inflation and employment. The model examined is an extension of the one developed by Fischer (1979) to demonstrate the nonneutrality of money in an economy where inflation is accurately anticipated in the long-run equilibrium.     

IS-LM stability and economic policy effectiveness: Further observations

Professor Wang (1980) has usefully extended my original model by introducing an explicit government budget constraint. However, the form of that budget constraint is very restrictive and limited. In this note, an alternative budget constraint to Wang's is developed. This permits the model and policy analysis to be significantly extended and generalized.     

The Andersen-Jordan equation revisited

This paper deals with two common econometric criticisms of the Andersen and Jordan (1968)equation—the endogeneity of the right-hand-side variables and the ad hoc implementation of Almon's polynomial distributed lag estimation technique. Using the original Andersen-Jordan data, we found no support for either criticism. While we note that the PDL specification of their equation is highly unusual, we found that their policy conclusions do not depend their particular choice of lag length or polynomial degree or their imposition of the endpoint constraints. Furthermore, the right-hand-side variables were found to satisfy necessary conditions for statistical exogeneity.     

A cubic estimte of the term structure of interest rates for a money demand function

Heller and Khan (1979) estimate the term structure of interest rates by a quadratic equation in order to employ the estimated parameters of the term structure in a demand-for-money function. An important improvement of their estimates can be made by specifying a cubic rather than a quadratic equation in order to estimate “humped” term structures. Furthermore, the ordinal numbering of the maturities must be changed to the actual length of the maturity of each security to avoid estimation error.     

Demand for international money 1962–1977

It has previously been shown that there is a well established pattern of substitution between external holdings of major currencies [Chrystal (1977)]. The present paper extends the earlier results through a period of major perturbations in the international monetary system. Such substitutions continue to be well defined, though the present results indicate the presence of dynamic instability in the system as specified.     

The ministry, plan changes, and the ratchet in planning

Do Soviet planners employ the ratchet, that is, do they increase targets in response to higher performance, as is generally accepted, or has David Granick (J. Comp. Econ., Sept. 1980, pp. 255–273) proved statistically that they do not? This paper tries to show that accepted views of planning behavior are well founded. The evidence comes from two sources: East German data show that targets are adjusted ex post, partly in response to performance; Soviet sources, presumed by Granick to prove the absence of a ratchet, are shown to prove its existence.     

Real-sector parameter instability and the optimal choice of monetary policy

In this paper we consider the effects of uncertainty upon the optimum choice of monetary policy instrument. Specifically we extend the work of Poole (1970), and others, to allow for the existence of multiplicative as well as additive stochastic coefficients in the structural equations of the standard IS-LM macroeconomic model. We demonstrate that the commonly accepted notion that money-stock control is superior to interest-rate control when the IS schedule is stochastic is not always valid.     

Direct and indirect requirements: A correct economic interpretation of the Hawkins-Simon conditions

This paper proposes a correct economic interpretation of the Hawkins-Simon conditions of macroeconomic stability. First, it indicates a misinterpretation of the conditions by Dorfman, Samuelson, and Solow (1958) for the two-sector case. Then, it investigates a probable source of their misinterpretation, i.e., the confusion between the direct and indirect input requirements to support a unit of final demand, and the direct and indirect input requirements to produce a unit of gross output. Finally, a generalized economic interpretation of the conditions for the general case is developed.     

A comparative engineering-economic analysis of the evolution of the Soviet mainline freight locomotive

While there has been a much larger increase in the work output of the Soviet mainline locomotive fleet than in that of the United States (from the late 1920s to the mid-1970s), the United States-Soviet difference in the mainline freight-locomotive unit's ability to do work has increased rather than decreased. This paper summarizes the findings of the author's (Boncher, 1976) investigation that documents and examines the causes of this development. An attempt is made to identify the essential differences in the controlling United States and Soviet technological decision-making processes.     

The long-run and short-run demand for money: Additional evidence

This paper presents estimates of Chow's money-demand equations using Chow's data. The equations are adjusted for autocorrelation using two autocorrelation transformations, the standard Cochrane-Orcutt transformation that deletes “initial” observations, and one that does not delete these observations. The estimates focus on the question of the asset versus the transactions specifications. The results reaffirm Chow's original conclusion which supported the asset motive and, thereby, reversed nearly all of the findings recently reported by Lieberman (1980). The paper concludes that one should be wary about using the Cochrane-Orcutt transformation, especially when the ratio of the number of deleted observations to total observations is large.     

Nash equilibrium search for the best alternative

In a recent paper, Weitzman (Econometrica47 (1979) 641–654) described a policy of “optimal search for the best alternative.” The present paper is concerned with the development and characterization of a policy of “Nash equilibrium search for the best alternative.” Specifically, it is shown that, under certain monotonicity assumptions, and under the assumption that firms have incomplete information regarding the results of rivals' search behavior, a Nash equilibrium search policy exists and has the same form as Weitzman's optimal search policy.