ANTIDUMPING REFORM IN THE WTO: A PESSIMISTIC APPRAISAL

Abstract.  Evidence presented in this paper suggests that substantial, and perhaps even modest, antidumping reform is unlikely to occur in the near future in multilateral trade negotiations. One reason is that the growing list of countries that use antidumping extensively has created new constituencies that will resist reform. Second, traditional antidumping users, especially the USA, have shown strong resistance to further reform and have implemented past reform in a minimalist fashion. Even if substantial changes are forthcoming, experience with antidumping reform from the Uruguay Round means that the economic impact of reform could be limited.     

WAGE SUBSIDY AND WELFARE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper seeks to answer if wage subsidy to workers displaced due to trade reform raises welfare in a developing country. We use a general equilibrium model with non‐specific factor inputs and trade liberalization as a policy variable. A combination of wage subsidy and tariff rate obtains the second‐best welfare level. The theoretical result is new, policy‐relevant and important in view of political‐economy aspects of free trade in developing and transition countries.     

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND EFFICIENCY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper uses stochastic frontier methodology to analyse foreign direct investment, imported capital goods and human capital as channels for increased efficiency in less‐developed countries. Empirical investigation reveals that developing countries differ with respect to the efficiency with which they use frontier technology. Foreign direct investment and human capital play a significant and quantitatively important role in explaining these differences.     

THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

In 1962 an article by Mr. Angelos Angelopoulos, professor at the Pantheios School of Political Sciences (Athens), entitled "The Third World, the European Common Market and the West", was published in the Annals . In that article the author described, with the freedom which is by tradition allowed to all contributors to the Annals , the fears and anxieties of the newly developing countries regarding the European Economic Community.
In the present article Mr. André Marchal, lecturer at the Faculty of Law and Economics of the University of Paris, discusses the same problem with the same freedom and a viewpoint radically different from that of Professor Angelopoulos.     

21世纪发展中国家城市化的深层次发展

21世纪发展中国家的城市化必然向深层次发展。文章分析了21世纪发展中国家城市化的必然趋势，指出城市的区域化发展和个性化发展是城市化深层次发展的两条主要途径，重点论述了这两种发展形式的意义、基础和主要策略。在城市数目、规模、地域扩展的基础上，深层次发展的群体形态——区域化发展，应以城市体系调控为主要策略；深层次发展的个体形态——个性化发展，应以城市更新为主要策略。文章还以河南省城市体系、深圳市、上海市、吉隆坡市等为案例，对区域化发展和个性化发展进行了实证分析。     

FACTOR MIGRATION AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

A three factor, two sector general equilibrium model is used to determine long run income distributional impacts of factor supply changes associated with international migration in developing and newly industrializing countries. Factor intensity rankings among three factors (capital, skilled and unskilled labor) between two industries (agriculture and manufacturing-services) play a critical role in determining which factors are natural friends with respect to migration. A result common to all countries is observed friendship between capital and unskilled labor: reducing (increasing) the supply of one will lower (raise) payments to the other.     

THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN FIRMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Foreign firms are likely to attempt to shape host government policies in their favour, as the profitability of MNE foreign affiliates largely depends on the business environment in which they operate. Based on data from the World Business Environment Survey, this paper investigates the political influence of foreign firms in 48 developing countries. It is found that foreign firms derive substantial fiscal and regulatory advantages from their political influence and from their ability to negotiate superior entry conditions.     

PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.     

HIV/AIDS AND BANKING STABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We argue that the recent large increase in deposits’ turnover in many developing countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence is associated with the spread of the disease. The point is that the need to pay for individual treatments force large‐scale withdrawals of households’ deposits, and that those large withdrawals put the banking industry at risk. In a standard demand‐deposit model where the HIV/AIDS prevalence among depositors is random, we show that (1) the probability of a large‐scale banking failure without a bank run increases as the odds of any prevalence level increases, and (2) it is always optimal to deposit, and thus to accept the risk of banking failure, to maintain long‐term investments in place.     

PRICE-COST MARGINS AND INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREA*

The structure-conduct-performance paradigm is tested using 4-digit SIC Korean industry data for 1981 and 1986. The study investigates whether the observed institutional differences between developed and developing countries affects the performance hypothesis. The results suggest that structure and conduct variables influence price-cost margins in much the same way as they do in developed countries. Nevertheless, the Korean government's credit rationing policies, by creating entry barriers, have the most important effects on industry performance.     

THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE TO PUBLIC DEBT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Theoretical models on fiscal sustainability hypothesize that indebted governments can lower their current debt by generating future primary surpluses, ceteris paribus. While both developed and developing countries struggle with the issue of debt stabilization, the latter, in particular face heightened sensitivity from creditors, which provides them an impetus to respond more strongly to stabilize their debt. Based on a panel of 53 developing countries, we examine the fiscal response of these countries to changes in their debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio. We find evidence of a positive relationship between the debt and primary surplus and that countries adjust along both the revenue and expenditure margins at roughly the same rate. (JEL E62, H50, O11)     

发展中国家的普遍服务政策

该文构建非对称信息模型分析普遍服务政策问题,其中政府对企业在农村提供服务的边际成本具有非对称信息.该文对区别定价和统一定价两种情形进行了对比分析.在实施区别定价时,不完全信息将提高农村地区的资费水平,并且降低相应的网络覆盖面积;而在实施统一定价时,农村地区的定价可能降低,但却是以网络覆盖的减少为代价的.该文的政策结论是:在实施普遍服务政策时,需要综合考虑网络投资的激励和用户承受能力.     

NON-CORPORATE SECTOR FINANCE AND FINANCING OF SMALL INDUSTRIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE

This paper attempts to report the author's findings regarding the role of the non-corporate sector in providing investment finance for small-scale industries in Nigeria, through co-operative efforts. It specially underlines the role of indigenous social organizations and group relations in solving the economic problems of a developing economy which places emphasis on industrial development. Though these sources provide short-term consumption finance, they certainly constitute an inadequate source of long-term finance for industry in a situation where the importance of small-scale industry development is officially greatly emphasized, and existing financial institutions are designed to serve only the financial needs of large industrial enterprises. The role of government in the context of the dilemma of the small-scale entrepreneur is examined and suggestions made for improvements. The paper reflects what is probably the experience of many developing countries trying to industrialize.     

OPTIMAL ADJUSTMENT OF THE COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper analyses how the composition of public expenditure should be adjusted to maximize the economic growth rate in developing countries. We first apply a theoretical framework to empirical data from 50 countries. We then demonstrate how each country should adjust public expenditure for the purpose of maximizing growth. Results show that developing countries in Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe have generally misallocated public expenditures in favour of defence, at the expense of public services. Other region‐specific results suggest that Asian developing countries should increase expenditure on education, and that Middle Eastern countries should decrease expenditure on education in favour of health.     

WTO COMMITMENTS AND CAP ADOPTION IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT IN HEAVILY INDEBTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The threat to the international financial system resulting from the developing-country debt problem has diminished since the initial 1982 crisis, despite halting adjustment and impaired creditworthiness in heavily indebted developing countries. The threat to the financial system has eased as commercial banks have reduced sharply the share of their assets and capital exposed to the troubled debtor countries. The countries themselves, however, are no better off. A sizable balance-of-payments adjustment has occurred in the heavily indebted developing countries, but that adjustment was concentrated–at least in quantitative terms–during the years immediately following the onset of the crisis and might have been more efficient had it been executed more gradually. Despite the adjustment that has occurred, the creditworthiness of the heavily indebted countries–as evaluated by conventional indices–has not improved. And, for reasons that this article explores, economic growth per capita has not resumed either.