新兴市场国家资本管制研究及启示

从数次金融危机的经验能够看到,大量国际资本逃离会对新兴市场国家带来相当严重的破坏作用。为了能够避免这种情况,新兴市场国家普遍都通过强化资本管制来预防这种情况的出现。在文中主要就新兴市场国家的资本管制进行研究,并就对我国的启示进行分析。     

新兴市场国家的制造业之路

2000年以后,全球制造业的格局发生了巨大变化,新兴市场国家逐渐兴起,并取得了巨大的成就。展望未来,新兴市场仍可继续扩大制造业市场份额,但前进的步伐会相对减慢。对部分新兴市场经济体而言,如何通过改革跨越制造业发展的瓶颈期,是具有重要意义的问题。     

巴西结构性改革与经济增长

今年以来,巴西政府通过降息、减税、增加信贷等措施来支持经济增长。但有分析指出,巴西近十年来的较高经济增速主要得益于良好的外部环境。为应对因全球经济再平衡导致的外部环境波动,巴西经济的有力复苏不仅取决于政策放松的空间,更取决于通过继续推进结构性改革消除制约经济可持续增长的瓶颈。本文旨在梳理巴西自上世纪90年代以来经济结构性改革所取得的进展及存在的问题,分析巴西经济当前存在的结构性问题,并就巴西未来的经济增长与改革前景进行展望。     

新兴市场国家金融危机机理及动态过程研究

新兴市场国家金融危机所表现出的特殊性是传统的危机理论所无法解释的。本文结合金融危机理论的新进展,运用信息经济学的分析框架,从金融领域和非金融领域的收支表恶化、利率上升以及不确定性增加等几方面探讨了新兴市场国家金融危机产生的机理;在此基础上,深入分析了危机的动态过程;最后,得出政策启示。     

新兴市场国家金融危机机理及动态过程研究

新兴市场国家金融危机所表现出的特殊性是传统的危机理论所无法解释的.本文结合金融危机理论的新进展,运用信息经济学的分析框架,从金融领城和非金融领域的收支表恶化、利率上升以及不确定性增加等几方面探讨了新兴市场国家金融危机产生的机理;在此基础上,深入分析了危机的动态过程;最后,得出政策启示.     

新兴市场国家货币政策问题研究

随着金融全球化日益深化,新兴市场国家融入国际金融市场的程度不断加深,新兴市场国应当警惕资本流动给货币政策带来的挑战,重视由资本项目开放程度加大而引发的现象,如资本流动的强顺周期性、资本逆转、债务美元化等,给新兴市场国的货币政策选择带来的困难和约束.如何结合这些特有的经济现象来研究新兴市场国的货币政策问题,这已经超出了传统货币政策理论的能力范围,要求有更为合适的货币政策分析框架的构建和运用.本文提出新近出现的开放经济的金融加速器模型是新兴市场国货币政策框架的合适选择,并提出了运用此框架所应当注意的问题.     

2020年新兴市场展望

“新兴市场”这个概念最早在1981年被创造出,它关系到十个国家。当时这些国家的人均GDP还不到3000美元,但是现在韩国人均GDP已达到1.4万美元。人们认知是,倘若是只投资这十个新兴市场国家当中的一个,这样太过于风险,所以,就需要投资十个新兴市场国家,从而分散风险。之前,新兴市场投资具有不确定性,但正是其不确定性才助其飞速发展。     

新兴市场国家货币承压前行

2019年,在全球经济增长下行压力加大(增速很可能降至金融危机以来的最低水平)、贸易摩擦问题阴云笼罩、政治与经济风险交织的背景下,新兴市场国家货币普遍承压。但值得一提的是,随着下半年全球货币政策普遍转向宽松,新兴市场国家货币也迎来调整之机。从2019年主要新兴市场国家货币的具体走势看,几大货币呈分化态势。     

处理好政府与市场在供给侧结构性改革中的关系研究

改革开放以来,我国国内生产总值一直呈"两位数"高速增长,经济总量已跃居世界第二。作为世界经济大国,伴随人口红利的逐步消失,我国经济发展中经济结构、区域发展、环境污染等诸多经济问题逐步显现。我国经济进入新常态发展,经济增速也由高速增长转变到中低速增长。深究经济发展的主要根源与问题,我国提出实施供给侧结构性改革,发挥市场的关键作用,倒逼政策变革,实现国家经济结构性调整与经济转型发展,逐步由经济大国向经济强国跨越。本文在概述我国供给侧结构性改革的基础上,结合我国经济发展实际,分析了推进供给侧结构性改革过程中,处理政府与市场关系可能存在的主要问题,并提出改进完善的主要措施。     

主要新兴市场国家利率走廊货币政策框架选择及启示

由于经济金融发展水平差异,各新兴市场国家中央银行所采用的货币政策框架区别较大,既有传统数量型调控为主的政策框架,也有利率走廊调控框架的货币政策。本文选取了G20新兴市场国家中的土耳其、墨西哥、韩国、印度,重点分析了上述四国的货币政策框架、调控工具及其效果,进而总结了货币政策框架转型的国际经验,对我国货币政策框架的转型具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Volatility Spillover in Regional Emerging Stock Markets: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Volatility spillovers among the stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are investigated using the concept of stochastic volatility and structural time-series modeling. The results reveal volatility spillovers, in which the Kuwait market plays the major role. It is also found that volatility in one market cannot be explained fully in terms of volatility in the other two markets, but that, out of the three markets, the Kuwait market seems to be the most influential. Some explanations are put forward for why this is the case.     

SME Financing in Emerging Markets: Firm Characteristics,Banking Structure and Institutions

Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey indicator database, we investigate (1) how firm characteristics affect financing of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets; (2) how cross-country differences in the banking sector affect SME financing; and (3) how financing of SMEs is influenced by economic development and institutions. Our findings confirm that younger and smaller firms in nonmanufacturing sectors consistently face severe financing obstacles/constraints and rely heavily on internal financing. Moreover, the availability of credit information and the bank concentration ratio, as well as economic development and the institutional environment, can significantly affect SME financing, and access to external financing in particular.     

Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages

This study tests the causal relationships between oil prices and monetary policy for the emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey). In particular, we explore the role of exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates. First, we utilize the commonly used Toda–Yamamoto causality framework and later augment the model to account for structural shifts—including gradual/smooth shifts. The empirical findings show that (i) accounting for gradual structural shifts matter for the causal linkages between oil prices and the monetary policy variables and (ii) employing a bivariate or multivariate frameworks is not important (with few exceptions) as much as controlling for structural breaks in these causal linkages.     

The Asset Growth Effect and Investor Protection in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Global Financial Crisis

The previous evidence shows that firms experience lower returns after a period with higher growth in assets. Two alternative explanations have been raised to explain this effect: mispricing and optimal investment. This study examines this effect in 26 emerging markets over the period of 2005–2013 with a special attention to the recent global financial crisis. We find a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years relative to other years. This effect is stronger in firms with small or medium stock turnover ratio and firms operating in industries with low R&D intensity. We also investigate the heterogeneity across countries and find that a stronger asset growth effect during the crisis years exists only for emerging markets with low protection of shareholders and creditors. We argue that this evidence is in line with the mispricing hypothesis.     

Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

Finance and Macroeconomic Performance. Some Evidence for Emerging Markets

This paper examines whether financial-sector development in several emerging markets affects their real economic activity. Results from cointegration and error correction models suggest that financial deepening (alternatively measured) exerts a robust longterm stimulating effect on real economic activity (both overall and sectoral) in all countries examined. However, short-term effects of financial deepening prove generally nonexistent, or tenuous at best. The results suggest that improving the structure and operation of the financial sector in emerging markets does stimulate real growth, but only if such improvement persists over a prolonged period of time.     

保险服务供给侧结构性改革研究

本文从供给侧结构性改革的理论研究出发,回顾经济学理论在供给侧和需求侧的研究方法以及在经济治理实践中的应用,对保险服务经济社会的成就和不足进行了阐述,指出保险供给存在不平衡不充分的问题,本文以产业为主要脉络,分别分析了农业、工业、服务业供给侧结构性改革的主要举措和保险需求,以及保险服务三大产业供给侧结构性改革的路径,并提出相关政策建议。     

银行危机与改革：以俄罗斯为例

俄罗斯银行部门在其十几年的发展历程中屡受危机困扰,严重时整个银行体系都受到撼动.但是在1998年大危机后,经过政府和中央银行的重大制度调整,国家宏观经济发展态势良好,银行部门迅速摆脱了困境.作为俄经济中充满朝气、良性发展和具有广阔前景的行业,目前俄罗斯银行已成为外国资本关注和积极参与的投资领域.     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit

The few existing studies on equity price dynamics and market efficiency for Latin American emerging equity markets show conflicting results. This study uses multiple varianceratio and auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving-average tests and new data (U.S. dollar-based national equity indices for the 1987–1997 period) to clarify these results. Documented evidence shows that equity prices in major Latin American emerging equity markets — Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico—follow a random walk, and that they are, generally, weak-form efficient. In sum, therefore, the evidence suggests that international investors in these markets cannot use historical information to design systematically profitable trading schemes because future long-term returns are not dependent on past returns.