哈耶克对凯恩斯有关通货膨胀理论的批判及其启示

在全球应对金融海啸初见成效之时,国内外无论政府还是学界都对通货膨胀存在一定预期。本文通过对哈耶克有关文献的梳理,站在哈耶克立场上着重对凯恩斯通货膨胀的性质、形式及后果进行了批判。剖析了人为的、只重视结果的凯恩斯通货膨胀理论在经济和政治层面可能造成的后果,并运用哈耶克理论为中国预防通货膨胀从心理、政治和现实三个方面提供了思想资源。     

The Keynesian Features of Graziani's Monetary Theory of Production and Some Unresolved Issues

Abstract

The aim of this article is twofold. First, it seeks to verify the elements of affinity between Graziani's approach to the Monetary Theory of Production and Keynes’ Treatise on Money and his General Theory. It is shown that two important theoretical elements, from the Treatise on Money, enter Graziani's basic schema, namely the view of endogenous money supply and the distribution process. At the same time, uncertainty and aggregate demand—conceived as a crucial variable in the General Theory—can play a significant role in the basic schema of the Monetary Theory of Production. Second, the article sets out a critical reconstruction of Graziani's basic schema emphasising the existence of ‘open issues’– such as bank behaviour and the ‘paradox of profits’—relating to internal and external inconsistencies.     

Keynes, Lucas and involuntary unemployment: a reply to Hayes

In this response to Mark Hayes's criticism of his article, ‘Lucason involuntary unemployment’, the author insists on theneed to draw a distinction between labour rationing (a marketoutcome) and unemployment (the activity of job seeking). Economictheory is mainly concerned with the former. Yet the issue ofthe voluntarity versus the involuntarity of unemployment pertainsto unemployment as an activity. Failing to make this distinctioncannot but lead to semantic confusion.     

Knowledge Questions: Hayek,Keynes and Beyond

This paper discusses the knowledge problem in terms of both the use and generation of knowledge. This is analyzed in the context of Hayek's failure to respond to the Keynes Challenge—the claim that markets fail to produce relevant knowledge—by suggesting that in the aftermath of The General Theory he was not well-positioned to address that problem. Ironically, his post-World War II work in cognitive psychology, The Sensory Order, offers a theory of the generation of knowledge which can provide a useful analogy for understanding the generation of market-level knowledge.     

Schumpeter on money,banking and finance: an institutionalist perspective

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to clarify on the evidence of primary material how Keynes transformed his theory from the Tract to the Treatise. Keynes went on working along the lines of the Tract theory until around April 1926, subsequently adopting the Transaction Approach up until September 1927. The paper stresses the importance of the three TOC between September 1927 and September 1928 as pointing the way towards the Treatise's fundamental equations – the breakthrough opening the way to the Treatise. The second fundamental equation, the TM supply function and the natural rate of interest had made their appearance by April 1930.     

Foreign investment, reparations and the proposal for an international bank: notes on the lectures of J M Keynes in Geneva, July 1929

Keynes's lectures to the Geneva School of International Studiesprovide substance to the intellectual linkages between the Cambridgedon and economists working in international economic agenciesduring the inter-war period. Keynes was keenly sought afteras a policy adviser; as the notes to these lectures indicate,he provided his audience with theoretical insights into thepressing issues of the day - reparations and the transfer problem,the economic foundations of the Dawes and Young Plans, and proposalsfor an international bank.     

Friedman and Keynes: divergences and convergences *

Milton Friedman claims to have succeeded the Keynesian revolution with a counter-revolution which, incorporating certain features of Keynes's thought, triumphed at the end of the 1960s. This paper presents a general assessment of the relationship between these thinkers, in the domain of politics, methodology and economics, the emphasis being put on Friedman's reading of Keynes. In many places, Friedman stresses the convergences between his vision and Keynes's, as against the latter's Walrasian disciples. However, despite certain points of agreement at the methodological level, the two authors are radically opposed in terms of political vision and economic analysis.     

Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

Second-best analysis with markets in disequilibrium: Public sector pricing in a Keynesian regime

The paper develops pricing rules for a public sector subject to a budget constraint, in an economy where the private sector experiences Keynesian unemployment (excess supply of labour and of commodities). Both second-best and welfare-improving pricing rules are studied. It is found that such rules can be defined in operational terms. In general, they are quite complex, involve quantities which are not directly observable (reservation wages and prices), and require evaluation of income and employment multipliers. The general equilibrium approach to second-best theory thus involves standard macroeconomic concepts and techniques. Some discussion of methodological issues and of policy objectives (inflation versus unemployment) is offered. In order to facilitate interpretation, the corresponding results for an economy with a competitive private sector are first restated.     

International Markets and Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Keynesian view

This paper attempts to sketch a Keynesian response to the gap between the reality of international capital markets and the ‘standard paradigm’ of economic theory that underpins the policy model offered to poor countries in relation to their participation in the world economy and their national macroeconomic management. Recent work on imperfect markets, much of it from self-styled ‘New Keynesian’ point of view, implies a substantial modification of this standard paradigm to allow for non-price clearing but this does not appear to to have been integrated with new trade theories, while the implications of systemic volatility and credit rationing behaviour have not been theorized. The paper suggests that a return to Keynes's original approach to investor uncertainty and global demand might not only help to integrate international macroeconomic theory in a plausible manner but also contribute to the foumulation of more desirable policy positions.     

Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis

The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of the income distribution between labor and capital on the growth performance of Thailand from a post Keynesian view. It rests on the theoretical model of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990 Bhaduri, A., and Marglin, S. “Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, December 1990, 14 (4), 375–393.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to see if an increase in the labor income share has a sufficient positive effect on consumption to offset a negative effect on investment and export demand. In order to investigate the question empirically we adopt and develop the approach of Stockhammer, Onaran, and Ederer (2009 Stockhammer, E.; Onaran, Ö.; and Ederer, S. “Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Euro-area.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2009, 33 (1), 139–159.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Several measures of the labor income share are calculated to take into account the fact that wage labor represents only half of the total labor force and check the robustness of our results. We also introduce a new treatment of external trade to better integrate the price competitiveness of Thailand. The econometric investigation shows that the growth regime is profit-led over the period 1970–2011, which shows that rebalancing the Thai economy will be difficult and requires an overall change of strategy going beyond a simple prolabor policy.     

Vicarelli,Keynes, and the unstable nexus between investment,liquidity, and finance

The goal of this article is to reconstruct Keynes’s vision of the unstable nexus between investment, liquidity and finance, as set out by the Italian economist Fausto Vicarelli (1936–1986). As argued in the article, one of Vicarelli’s main contributions consists of explaining the inherent instability of financially sophisticated capitalist economies in terms of the interaction (and double dissociation) between investment, saving, and stock-holding decisions, within a Keynesian framework characterized by the presence of fundamental uncertainty. While Vicarelli’s interpretation of Keynes is best understood in the context of the post-Keynesian literature, its relevance goes beyond that, as its sheds light on current issues related to the post-2008 financial crisis and its policy implications.     

Marx's value forms and Hayek's rules: a reinterpretation in the light of the dichotomy between physis and nomos

This paper argues that both Marx and Hayek objected to the dichotomybetween physis and nomos, and offered concepts which integrate,or mediate between, the two. Marx's value forms and Hayek'srules aim to grasp something neither purely natural nor purelyartificial or social, but ‘socially natural’. Valueforms and rules are natural in the sense that they pre-existagents and are taken by agents as given. On the other hand,forms and rules are social in that production relations or spontaneousorder are reproduced as the unintended consequences of agents'using forms or following rules. Thus value forms and rules standas links between agents and production relations or spontaneousorder.     

Keynes and a post-Keynesian controversy over the effect of debt on income expansion

The paper considers arguments of Robertson (1938) and Asimakopulos (1983) that the Keynesian multiplier expansion of output may be constrained by debt implicitly incurred in the financing of autonomous investment necessary to start the multiplier process. The task of this essay is to show that within the ‘short-period’ and static analytical framework of Keynes, this line of reasoning regarding the adverse effects of debt on multiplier-induced expansions of output is unwarranted. Nevertheless it is concluded that if the Keynesian framework is abandoned in favour of a dynamic framework in the manner of a steady trend rate of growth - a choice dependent on how one conceives of the economy, as inherently static or dynamic - then such arguments have troubling implications. In particular, the dependence of Keynes's approach on credit and hence debt forges links between ‘short-periods' whose distinctness from one another is crucial to Keynes's result.     

Keynes’s view of deficits and functional finance: a Modern Monetary Theory perspective

Abstract

The immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) was characterised by a resurgence of interest in the work of Keynes. Fiscal policy became at least temporarily acceptable again, in turn leading to government deficits and debt, as a proportion of GDP, reaching levels not seen since before the onset of the neoliberal period. Keynes’s own pronouncements on deficit financing generated renewed interest. Despite the strength of the neoclassical counterattack – which has been relatively successful in reassessing the crisis as a government failure – confidence in orthodox economics has not been fully restored, at least outside the confines of academia. Although the hopes of heterodox economists – that the GFC might mark the beginning of the end of the neoclassical hegemony – have not been realised, the upswing in interest in Keynes’s views has not entirely died away. This paper considers Keynes’s views of deficits and debt and then looks at the controversial area of Keynes’s position vis-à-vis functional finance. The paper concludes by considering how Modern Monetary Theory might increase our understanding of the nature of deficits and debt and thus provide valuable insights which might underpin the use of fiscal policy to pursue public purpose.     

Economics, realism and reality: a comparison of Maki and Lawson

There is presently considerable debate about the applicationand interpretation of realism in economics. Interest in thisarea of the philosophy and methodology of economics has intensifiedover the last twenty years, especially owing to the substantialcontributions by Uskali Mäki and Tony Lawson, respectively.Although their work falls under the same banner of realism ineconomics, their projects differ significantly in many importantrespects. This review tries to clarify the contrasting approachesof each author and explains the main reasons for the differencesbetween them. The emphasis is on clarification of their respectivepositions rather than a comprehensive critical evaluation assuch.