理论模型需要符合现实吗

国内的经济学研究,存在着严重倾向于实证研究的现象,规范的理论模型文章较为少见.造成这一现象的原因之一是许多人似乎总在期待模型中的设定与现实相符.在模型与现实之间的关系上,笔者表述了这样一种理解--理论模型本身不需要符合现实,它的构造可以与现实相脱离;但理论模型所要回答的问题,最终是基于现实、针对现实的.     

Components of effective devaluation and the domestic rate of inflation: The case of Israel

Developing countries have frequently resorted to effective devaluation by changing either their formal rate of exchange, or by using non-formal components, such as taxes and subsidies. The ensuing increase in the domestic price of imports has inflationary effects. This paper analyses the Israeli experience to investigate the inflationary effects of increases in import prices and alternative methods of devaluation. It is found that formal and non-formal devaluation appear to have the same long-run effects on the price level, but are not the same in timing: A formal devaluation leads more quickly to increases in domestic prices.     

The status of economics as a naturalistic social science

Naturalistic social science is held frequently to be the mosteffective means of discovering social reality (e.g., Kincaid,H. 1996. Philosophical Foundations of the Social Sciences: AnalyzingControversies in Social Research, Cambridge, Cambridge UniversityPress; McIntyre, L. 1996. Laws and Explanation in the SocialSciences, Boulder, CO, Westview). This paper evaluates economicsas such a science. From Kincaid (1996), criteria for naturalismin social science are identified. The focus here is whetherrational, objective empirical methods exist for choosing economictheories; whether fair, cross and independent tests exist fortheories, assumptions and methodological norms; and whethereconomic theories chosen in these ways have public policy relevance.Examples from economics are related to each of these naturalisticcriteria. These encompass the relevance of econometrics to testingeconomic theories, the complications the non-natural-kind qualityof economic variables impose on testing, and the question ofwhether naturalistic methods reveal economic reality. The paperconcludes that the practice of economics does not, and is notable to, rely on naturalistic methods.     

Are Minimum Wages to Blame for Informality in the Labour Market?

The paper estimates the impact of the minimum wage on formal and informal employment in a developing country combining the use of aggregate time series data with modern time-series methods. The analysis is carried out for the case of Brazil over the period 1982–2002. The hypothesis under investigation is that minimum wage rises price workers out of the formal labour market and into the informal sector. The modelling strategy involves the estimation of the long-run structure as well as the short-term dynamics of employment equations in which the minimum wage enters as an explanatory variable.JEL codes: J23 J51 C32     

Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks

This paper assesses methods and components of formal evolutionary-economic modelling. Methods are broadly classified into evolutionary game theory and selection dynamics, evolutionary computation and multi-agent models, each with relevant subcategories. The components or building blocks are organized into diversity, innovation, selection, bounded rationality, diffusion, path dependency and lock-in, coevolution, multilevel and group selection, and mechanisms of growth. The number of alternatives that has been proposed for each category is vast, making it difficult to comprehend the variety of assumptions and formalizations underlying existing evolutionary-economic models. Our survey aims to clarify for each model component the choice range, formal expressions, associated assumptions, and possible techniques for formalization. Our study is unique in that it provides more information about the formal details of specific model components and is considerably more inclusive than earlier reviews.     

Likelihood Evidence on the Asset Returns Puzzle

Standard equilibrium models are unable to replicate the average return on equity and the risk-free rate during 1889–1978, the well-known asset returns puzzle. The present paper, motivated by the excess of outliers in the data, proposes a normal-scale mixture stochastic process for output that is compatible with leptokurtosis. Using formal likelihood-based methods, it is shown that observed asset returns are compatible with posterior distributions implied by the model.     

论我国劳动关系契约化中的正式约束与非正式约束

由于我国社会习俗、文化、价值观等非正式约束与正式约束的不匹配,导致《劳动合同法》的实施效果不尽如人意,这些非正式约束的限制主要表现在:关系经济降低了正式劳动合约的作用;集体主义制约了正式契约关系的拓展;等级制不利于建立平等的劳动契约关系;人治不利于劳动契约按法律的手段有效实施。正式制度只有在与非正式制度相容的情况下才能发挥作用,我国劳动关系契约化中正式约束与非正式约束不相适应会带来一些问题,主要表现在:它将影响我国社会从身份到契约的进程;影响我国《劳动合同法》的实施及其效果;它使劳动合同的作用难以发挥。     

农村金融:现实挑战与发展选择

农村金融体制的改革严重滞后，已经成为农村发展的重要障碍。当前中国农村经济已进入新畴发展阶段，其面临的主要矛盾是由增加供给转变为提高效益，传统的数量扩张为主的增长方式受到严重挑战。农村和农业发展对资金要素的依赖程度日趋增强．然而现实表明：由于农村正规金融组织功能不全、农村合作金融明显缺位，农村金融抑制变得更加严重，农村非农产业和农民获得金融服务极为困难已成为普遍存在的现象。     

Religion,economics and politics: The Bishops and Keynes in the post-Keynesian ERA

This paper makes a proposal for reintroducing sociological or social economics into contemporary economic science. Such a reintroduction is proposed to be substantive, by analyzing the social structuring of the economy, and formal, by including sociological/social economics in the current (JEL) classification system of economic disciplines (code A.15). Both epistemological and ontological arguments can be presented to support the proposal. Epistemological arguments invoke the presence of essential components of sociological economics in the development of economic thought, and ontological arguments stress the role of social factors in economic life. In this paper I present primarily epistemological (theoretical-methodological) arguments for sociological economics, and secondarily ontological ones. I show that the present designation, sociology of economics, is something different from sociological or social economics in that the former refers to economic epistemology (knowledge) and the latter to economic ontology (reality). I conclude that, in addition to a sociology of economic science, we need a sociology of economic life.     

On closure rules,homogeneity and dynamics in applied general equilibrium models

The problem of model ‘closure’ has been a major focus of the literature on the theoretical aspects of applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses the issue by focusing on the implicit behavioral assumption leading to the existence of the closure problem. To do this, it uses a simple temporary equilibrium to make explicit the microeconomic behavior underlying these types of models. The closure problem is analyzed through the assumptions on the role of relative prices that it implies. In particular, emphasis is put on two mechanisms - the real balance effect and an expectation effect - in potentially ensuring the existence of an equilibrium. The paper concludes by showing the implications of this analysis for the construction of a theoretical framework for fully dynamic general equilibrium models.     

Lending policies of informal, formal and semiformal lenders

This paper compares lending policies of formal, informal and semiformal lenders with respect to household lending in Vietnam. The analysis suggests that the probability of using formal or semiformal credit increases if borrowers provide collateral, a guarantor and/or borrow for business‐related activities. The probability of using informal credit increases for female borrowers. It also appears that the probability of using formal credit increases in household welfare up to a certain threshold, but at a decreasing rate. In addition, the paper discerns the determinants of probability of default across lender types. Default risk of formal credit appears to be strongly affected by formal loan contract terms, e.g., loan interest rate and form of loan repayment, whereas default risk on informal loans is significantly related to the presence of propinquity and other internal characteristics of the borrowing household. Overall, the study raises several important implications for the screening, monitoring and enforcement instruments that may be employed by different types of lenders.     

Empirical research on drive mechanism of firms'''' environmental management

Firms’transformation from passive envrionmental management to active environmental management is thekey to solving environmental problems. This paper empirically studies the impact of environmental management incen-tives on environmental management through model construction. Based on the data and reality of China, we can build aconcept model of environmental management driving mechanism, and put forward theoretical hypothesis that can betested: take the 13 environmental management behaviors (EMBs) as substitute of the comprehensiveness, introducecounting variables, and use NB model, Possion Model and Ordered Probit model the regression analysis. The theory andmethods brought forward in this paper will provide references for firms in China to further implement voluntaryenvironmental management, and offer advises and countermeasures for leaders to implement environmental manage-ment effectively.     

Vertical Links Between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions

The paper investigates vertical linkages between formal and informal financial institutions. Specifically, it studies a policy that expands formal credit to informal lenders, in the hope that this will improve loan terms for borrowers who are shut out of the formal sector. Special attention is paid to the Philippines. It is argued that the effects of stronger vertical links depend on the form of lender competition. In particular, if the relationship between lenders is one of strategic cooperation (sustained by threats of reprisal in a repeated setting), an expansion of formal credit may worsen the terms faced by informal borrowers.     

产业转移的关键影响因子研究

本文通过理论分析构建产业转移影响因子的框架模型,基于提出的研究假设,经过初步测试、正式施测两层步骤,利用问卷调查、数据分析等手段和方法,略去备选因素中的不敏感因素,验证模型中对于产业转移的关键影响因子的信度和效度,最终得出产业转移中的关键影响因子。研究发现,以国家政策、产业发展、资源环境、经济距离、劳动力为核心的五个维度变量中的18个影响因子是影响产业转移的主要因素,此结论对产业转移工作的顺利进行,具有重要借鉴参考意义。     

Are labor markets segmented in developing countries? A semiparametric approach

We test the hypothesis that observably similar workers earn higher wages in the formal sector than in the informal sector in developing nations. Using data from Argentina's household survey and various definitions of informal employment, we find that on average, formal wages are higher than informal wages. Parametric tests suggest that a formal premium remains after controlling for individual and establishment characteristics. However, this approach suffers from several econometric problems, which we address with semiparametric methods. The resulting formal premium estimates prove either small and insignificant, or negative. Neither do we find significant differences in measures of job satisfaction between the two sectors. We invoke these results to question the mainstream view that labor markets are segmented along formal/informal lines in developing nations such as Argentina.     

COMMENT MESURER LA CONTRIBUTION DU SECTEUR NON STRUCTURE A LA PRODUCTION NATIONALE DANS LES PAYS DU TIERS MONDE?*

This article discusses methods of integrating the “informal sector” in the national accounts of developing countries. This sector, defined generally as composed of producers who do not keep formal accounts, is difficult to capture by usual statistical collection techniques, and therefore is often neglected. The paper develops the requirements for a direct inquiry approach to obtaining data for this sector, emphasizing the need for national, exhaustive, and periodic coverage. It then proceees to propose methods of analysis for informal sector enterprises with and without fixed locations, tailored to the specific characteristics of each trade. The final section presents some results of application of the proposed methods in Tunisia and Niger.     

我国自然失业率的测量与解析——基于1978-2007年数据

通过分析自然失业率的三种数理模型,采用比较静态分析与计量统计检验的方法,发现纳入工资刚性的凯恩斯主义NAIRU模型更符合我国实际.利用这个模型,在放宽自然失业率恒定不变和阶段性变化假设的基础上,测量了1978-2007年我国各年的自然失业率.1978年以来,我国自然失业率总体呈现上升趋势,到2003年为一个极大点;2003-2007年自然失业率开始下降,分别为9.25%、9.09%、13.1%、10.9%、7.15%.另外,我国平均的名义工资刚性度和实际工资刚性度分别为0.873、0.221.在我国,技术进步对自然失业率是具有长期效应而不是短期效应.技术进步倾向于减少自然失业率,而这与Pissarides等人在美国的研究结论是相反的.     

Flexible Labor Regulations and Informality in Egypt

Do more flexible labor market regulations reduce informal employment in formal firms? This paper examines the effects of changes in labor regulations on the incidence of formal employment. Using the case of Egypt, we study the effects of the introduction of more flexible labor regulations in 2003 on the probability that non‐contractual workers will be granted a formal employment contract. To identify the effect of the law and control for potential confounding factors, we use a difference‐in‐difference estimator that measures the difference in the pre‐ and post‐law probability of obtaining a formal contract across a treatment group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in formal firms and a comparison group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in informal firms. The latter serve as a useful comparison group since informal firms are unlikely to formalize as a result of the law, so that the only way their workers can become formal is to move to another firm. Our findings show that the passage of the new labor law did in fact increase the probability of transitioning to formal employment for non‐contractual workers employed in formal firms by about 3–3.5 percentage points, or the equivalent of at least a fifth of informal workers in formal firms.     

Software engineering standards: the 'formal methods debate' in the uk

This paper traces the evolution of two standards, Def Stan 00-55 and 00-56, regualtin the identification and productin of safety-critical software for defence applications, issued by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) as interim standards in 1991. The standards—00-55, in particular—have become an important forum for articulating the interests of those who work in the UK safety-critical software engineering field; a debate which has largely revolved around the intergral role 00-55 demands for formal methods of sofware development for safety-critical functions or components. In recounting the stor of their gestation within the MoD during the early 1980s; their controversial release in draft form in 1989; and their subsequent second release as interim standards in 1991, the aim has been to illuminate some of the current 'politics' of formal methods of software production, and to consider how the standards are reshaping the discipline of software engineering.     

Software engineering standards: the ‘formal methods debate’ in the uk

This paper traces the evolution of two standards, Def Stan 00-55 and 00-56, regualtin the identification and productin of safety-critical software for defence applications, issued by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) as interim standards in 1991. The standards—00-55, in particular—have become an important forum for articulating the interests of those who work in the UK safety-critical software engineering field; a debate which has largely revolved around the intergral role 00-55 demands for formal methods of sofware development for safety-critical functions or components. In recounting the stor of their gestation within the MoD during the early 1980s; their controversial release in draft form in 1989; and their subsequent second release as interim standards in 1991, the aim has been to illuminate some of the current ‘politics’ of formal methods of software production, and to consider how the standards are reshaping the discipline of software engineering.