Debt,seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries

The endogenous growth literature established the existence of an inverted-U curve between taxes and economic growth, namely a Growth Laffer Curve, but empirical evidence on this relationship in developing countries is rather limited. Given that seigniorage and public debt are also important means of financing public spending in these countries, we take into account in this paper their respective impacts on growth, as they might deform the existing relationship between taxes and growth. To this end, we develop a growth model with public investment as the engine of perpetual growth, and look for the effect of debt, tax and money financing on economic growth. We study in particular the way fiscal and monetary policies deform the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries. An empirical section based on a panel of 100 developing countries over the period 1980–2010 provides both OLS-Fixed Effects and GMM-system estimations that support our theoretical conclusions, namely the existence of Growth Laffer Curves indexed by the levels of debt and of seigniorage.     

个税免征额、税率与拉弗曲线

本文基于个人所得税改革对经济主体行为产生激励的理论,尝试将个税免征额引入拉弗曲线(Laffer curve),分析了收入变化时收入税率曲线位置的移动与拉弗曲线的形态变化,以及个税免征额与最优税率之间的运动规律,发现随着个税免征额的提高,最优税率有下降的趋势,对我国当前个税免征额的提高与税率级次级距调整现象做出了较严密的数理分析。而在分析个税免征额的选择及其与税率之间的关系时,为我们找到在当前地区收入水平不均与居民收入分布多样的状况下的最优个税免征额以及实践差别化税制的理论依据,回答了原来仅考虑税率变化的拉弗曲线所不能回答的问题。     

拉弗曲线的深度分析--兼析中国个人所得税制的政策涵义

目前,中国贫富差距越来越大,已对社会经济发展构成不利.个人所得税应成为再分配的调节工具之一,适当的个人所得税边际税率机制并不会像想象的那样伤害效率.但强调效率的人会以拉弗曲线为依据,主张降低个人所得税边际税率.本文对拉弗曲线进行了较深入的分析,证明拉弗曲线在说明个人所得税边际税率与税收之间的关系时,存在一定的理论缺陷和局限性.中国个人所得税制应该加重高收入者税负,尽量不伤害中间阶层,减轻低收入者税负.     

The relationship between tax rates and tax revenues in eurozone member countries - exploring the Laffer curve

We estimate Laffer Curves for direct and indirect taxes for each Eurozone country, using panel data from 1995 to 2011, by means of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models. We choose the three taxes that contribute the most to the government tax revenue: the value added tax (VAT), the corporate income tax (CT), and the labour income tax (LT). From our estimated significant parameters, which have the expected signs according to the Laffer Curve theory, we obtained a maximum/optimal tax rate for VAT for Greece, Portugal, and Slovakia and for the majority of the Eurozone countries for direct taxes. We also take into consideration the business cycle. Many countries do not present differences in regime, and when they do, the optimal tax rate is higher during recessions. Finally, we compare the observed tax rates in 2012 to the estimated optimal tax rates, to assess if the 2012 policy was located at the prohibitive range of the Laffer Curve. Our results are important for the discussions about fiscal discipline and harmonization in the Eurozone, since they exhibit important disparities between countries and taxes. We can see that, especially for CT and LT, there is a strong divide between the values of the optimal maximum tax rates for Eastern European countries and Western European economies. Additionally, the economic and financial conditions of each country also influence the value for the tax rate.     

Currency substitution and seignorage in eastern europe

Economic and political uncertainty, high inflation and liberalization of foreign exchange restrictions have encouraged substantial currency substitution in the economies in transition. This paper presents empirical evidence on currency substitution in four Eastern European countries in transition: Poland, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. It is shown how currency substitution affects money demand and by that seignorage revenues. The empirical estimates of the money demand functions are used to calculate the seignorage maximizing rate of inflation in the economies in transition.     

Fundamental Issues in Constitutional Reform: With Special Reference to Latin America and the United States

This article describes the kinds of democratic institutions that citizens might include in a constitution that they themselves wrote to advance their common interests. It argues that no single set of institutions dominates all others, but rather that there are advantages and disadvantages to different institutions and, most importantly, that different parts of the constitution can either reinforce or contradict one another. Frequent reference is made to the experience of Latin American countries in the interest of making the arguments more concrete. Many of the same issues are also relevant for the United States, however.     

Guns,laws and public shootings in the United States

Since the late 1990s, there have been increasing numbers of public shootings carried out with firearms in the United States. These tragedies continually renew the regulatory debate concerning public safety while considering civil liberties. Using a unique data set, we investigate whether laws correspond to whether an event occurs and the effects of event-specific characteristics on public shooting outcomes. In particular, we analyse how state-specific gun laws, the types of firearms, the shooting venues and the mental health of the gunman impact the outcomes of public shootings. Results show that most gun laws are unrelated to whether an event occurs. In addition, common state and federal gun laws that outlaw assault weapons are unrelated to the likelihood of an assault weapon being used during a public shooting event. Moreover, results show that the use of assault weapons is not related to more victims or fatalities than other types of guns. However, the use of hand guns, shot guns and high-capacity magazines is directly related to the number of victims and fatalities in a public shooting event. Finally, the gunman’s reported mental illness is often associated with an increase in the number of victims and fatalities.     

Guns,highways and economic growth in the United States

Given its significant policy implications, the nexus between public expenditures and economic growth has been the subject of an extensive and often emotive theoretical and empirical debate. The nexus between two types of public expenditures and economic growth is examined in this paper using both linear and nonlinear causality tests. Both spending on highways and on defence are regarded, albeit with not the same intensity of conviction, as useful counter-cyclical policy instruments and as stimuli to economic growth. Findings reported herein from both linear and non-linear causality tests offer evidence in support for the growth enhancing properties of the former type of public spending but not so in the case of military expenditure.     

Dynastic Inequality Compared: Multigenerational Mobility in the United States,the United Kingdom,and Germany

Using harmonized household survey data, we analyze long‐run social mobility in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, and test recent theories of multigenerational persistence of socioeconomic status. In this country comparison setting, we find evidence against a universal law of social mobility. Our results show that the long‐run persistence of socioeconomic status and the validity of a first‐order Markov chain in the intergenerational transmission of human capital is country‐specific. Furthermore, we find that the direct and independent effect of grandparents' social status on grandchildren's status tends to vary by gender and institutional context.     

Sexual Orientation,Sexual History,and Inequality in the United States

Much of the literature on sexual orientation discrimination reports earnings differentials for gay, lesbian, and bisexual individuals when compared with heterosexuals. The General Social Survey (GSS) has previously been used due to its extensive coverage of demographic variables and sexual behavior in the United States. This study uses updated GSS data to investigate whether the income differentials found in earlier work have persisted and how estimates based on categorizing respondents according to the reported sex of their sex partners compare to estimates based on the respondents’ self-reported sexual orientation. Results for the years 2008–14 indicate that self-identification as an LGB individual and/or same-sex sexual behavior are correlated with a lower income; however, not all the results are statistically significant. In addition, there is a statistically significant negative income differential of 32 percent for men who report having had a same-sex partner at some point, but identify as straight/heterosexual.     

Energy consumption,income, and carbon emissions in the United States

This paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the United States. Earlier research focused on testing the existence and/or shape of an environmental Kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account. We investigate the Granger causality relationship between income, energy consumption, and carbon emissions, including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model. We find that income does not Granger cause carbon emissions in the US in the long run, but energy use does. Hence, income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems.     

Location and happiness in the United States

The effect of living in a less urban area on the probability of being happy is estimated. It is shown that less urban areas are associated with higher levels of happiness. Further, it is shown that respondents in the north region are less happy. Data from the National Opinion Research Center’s “General Social Survey” are used.     

Higher Education in the United States: Laissez-Faire,Differentiation, and Research

The U.S. higher education system stands out in three dimensions. First, it has the highest number of leading research universities. Second, it displays significant differentiation: multiple types of institutions offer services that differ in cost, prestige, etc. Third, it has a laissez-faire/free-market orientation: private and public entities are free to open schools and compete; essentially all schools enjoy substantial autonomy. This paper makes the case that these features are systematically related. The development of the American higher education market—which allowed market forces to operate and lacked centralized planning—contributed to the emergence of differentiation and a set of leading research universities.     

言论自由、平等与美国选举财政

文章从自由与平等的关系的角度分析了美国的选举财政制度。在回顾了美国选举财政法一百多年的历史,特别是1970年以来现代选举财政制度的演变过程之后,文章着重分析了自由和平等价值对民主制度的重要性和意义,以及这两种价值在选举财政法中的体现及其矛盾。文章不赞成为了自由而完全牺牲平等,主张以兼顾两者的方式来看待和解决选举财政法中出现的争议问题。     

Farm Labor in the United States

The mainstream blames the global savings glut for causing the 2008 global financial crisis and proposes currency realignment to restore balance. However, this view fails to provide solid theoretical and empirical support to the claim that net inflows of foreign savings reduced U.S. long-term real interest rates and inflated asset prices. It also ignores the role of the global financial system in shaping the development strategy and macroeconomic imbalances in emerging Asian economies. Furthermore, forcing currency revaluation in China and other surplus countries may risk reducing global demand instead of shifting demand from the United States to surplus countries. The paper argues that an overhaul of the defunct global financial system lies at the root of global rebalancing; whereas in the short run, the United States should actively pursue demand-enhancing policies to strengthen global economic recovery.     

Household wealth, public consumption and economic well-being in the United States

Standard official measures of household economic well-beingin several countries are based on money income. The generalconsensus is that such measures are limited because they ignorecertain crucial determinants of well-being. We examine two suchdeterminants—household wealth and public consumption—inthe context of the US. Our findings suggest that the level anddistribution of economic well-being is substantially alteredwhen money income is adjusted for wealth or public consumption.Over the 1989–2000 period, median well-being appears toincrease faster when these adjustments are made than when standardmoney income is used. Adding imputed rent and annuity from householdwealth to household income increases measured inequality, whileadding public consumption reduces it. However, all three measuresshow about the same rise in inequality over the period.     

Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway

The Johansen multivariate cointegration methodology is used to analyze relationships among short-term and long-term interest rates in the United States, Germany and Norway. A variance decomposition approach is applied to estimate the proportion of each interest rate's forecast error variance attributable to innovations in the other interest rates. Impulse response functions are plotted to illustrate the speed with which interest rate events are transmitted between capital markets. The analyses illustrate that US interest rates have a significant influence on both German and Norwegian interest rates, while the reverse effect is modest. Norway is also strongly exposed to German interest rate movements, which reflects the consequences of a small country linking its currency to the value of European currencies.     

Political contributions and corruption in the United States

The empirical evidence presented in this study indicates that political contributions and corruption are complements, rather than substitutes. Based on panel data for seven election cycles, regression results show that in the United States, political contributions and federal corruption convictions are positively correlated. Accordingly, we propose an alternative explanation for the relationship between political contributions and corruption: two components of a comprehensive strategy for rent-seeking. As long-term investments, political contributions influence legislators to change the rules of the game; as short-term investments, corruption influences public officials to sidestep the existing rules, in order to maximize the rent collected.