我国高新技术电子信息产品产业内贸易实证分析

近年来,我国高新技术电子信息产品出口贸易迅速发展,在对外贸易中的地位越来越突出,但所面临的国际市场竞争也日益激烈,提高高新技术电子信息产品的国际竞争力已经成为我国是否成为贸易强国的标志之一。本文通过运用产业内贸易指数、贸易竞争力指数等指标,对我国高新技术电子信息产品的竞争力进行实证分析,提出了若干政策建议。     

全球化中的中国机电产业国际竞争力培育路径——基于产业内贸易视角的实证分析

产业内贸易是20世纪70年代中期以来出现的一种新的国际贸易模式.文章运用产业内贸易理论,对我国机械电子制造业的产业内贸易的决定因素--规模经济、产品的差异性、国际直接投资及回归模型进行了实证分析,探讨影响我国机电产业国际竞争力的因素及其影响强度,并就我国机电产业发展和机电制造企业有效竞争战略的制定提出若干政策建议.     

基于国民经济的产业内贸易分析

21世纪前50年,我国经济发展至少面临三大瓶颈:经济质量、经济结构和国际经济竞争力。本文以人均GDP、第二产业占GDP的比重作为反映我国经济质量和经济结构的指标,以外商直接投资额作为反映我国经济竞争力的指标,通过建立计量模型,分析国民经济对我国产业内贸易发展的影响。指出要从调整产业结构、鼓励企业技术创新和有效吸引外商直接投资的角度优化我国产业内贸易,特别是水平型产业内贸易。     

产业内贸易与我国贸易战略的调整

本文通过对我国产业内贸易的实证分析,总结了我国产业内贸易发展的特点,进而对我国贸易战略的调整提出了四点建议:通过规模化经营战略,达到产业规模经济;通过实行产品差异化战略,促进国际产业内贸易发展;通过科技创新,促进贸易结构升级;培育具有国际竞争力的跨国公司。     

水平与垂直产业内贸易的形成因素——基于中国的跨行业面板数据分析

本文基于我国2000～2003年间制造业30个行业的数据,运用面板数据的固定效应模型验证了产业特征因素对我国水平与垂直产业内贸易形成的影响,以检验国际水平与垂直产业内贸易理论在中国的适用性。只有资本密集度的检验系数与预期符号相悖。产品差异系数的符号虽然与预期一致,但对中国产业内贸易没有显著影响。厂商数目和外国直接投资(FDI)对中国水平产业内贸易与垂直产业内贸易都发挥着明显的正向促进作用。     

产业内贸易对产业竞争力的作用分析

从产业内贸易理论入手引出产业内贸易与产业竞争力指数的评定理论,并运用Grubel-Llolyd指数和竞争力指数对我国目前产业的产业内贸易现状进行分析,指出产业竞争力的提升虽不完全取决于产业内贸易的发展,但产业内贸易对产业竞争力有一定的推动作用。因为通过产业内贸易可以提升产品技术等级,降低生产成本;通过开展产业内贸易可以扩大专业化的生产规模,加快产业升级;同时可以利用产业内贸易过程中的产业转移增加我国产品的多样性,改善产品结构。发展产业内贸易对我国产业竞争力的提升有重要意义,是我国产业竞争力提升的一种有效途径。     

中国对外贸易结构与竞争力研究：1978-2006

本文考察我国1978--2006年对外贸易结构和国际竞争办的演变。我们将所有国际贸易商品在SITC三位数分类的基础上重新分类为资源密集型、劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型四大类产品,并从显示比较优势指数、产业内贸易指数、国际竞争力系数和出口结构相似指数等不同指标考察国际竞争力的变化。分析表明,我国对外贸易产业和技术结构不断优化、国际竞争力持续提升,且均呈现较强的阶段性特征。1978—1985年处于以资源换外汇的阶段,竞争力很弱;1986--1993年,比较优势得到充分体现,劳动密集型产品出口占据主导地位,竞争力不断提高;1994年以来,劳动密集型产品继续保持强大的国际竞争力,但其在我国对外贸易中的相对地位不断下降,资本和技术密集型产品对外贸易迅速发展。本文还进一步分析了贸易结构与竞争力阶段性变化的深层次原因,并讨论了相应的政策启示。     

我国机电产品产业内贸易分析——基于国际贸易标准分类(SITC)的机械及运输设备数据的视角

机电产品的进出口在我国对外贸易中占据着举足轻重的地位,深入分析我国机电产品产业内贸易状况对于调整我国出口产品结构、增强我国企业国际经济竞争力具有重要意义,运用产业内贸易G-L指数和MIIT指数,从静态与动态的角度,全面地反映了我国机电产品的产业内贸易水平,并提出相应的建议及对策,以促进我国机电产品贸易的方式的优化。     

中美动力机械及设备产业内贸易实证研究

在中美贸易商品中,按SITC标准分类的第7类商品——机电产品是中美双边贸易的大宗商品之一。因此,对中美动力机械及设备产业内贸易现象进行研究有助于提高我国机电产品的对外贸易竞争力,进一步推进中美双边贸易发展。通过G—L指标、产业内贸易绝对量、边际产业内贸易指数、Greenaway和Milner方法对2003年至2009年中国动力机械及设备产品产业内贸易总体水平和内部结构进行实证分析,并提出建议。     

产品内分工背景下的中国对外贸易升级战略初探

目前国际分工已由产业内分工深化到产品内分工,我国对外贸易转型面临新的机遇.本文从全新的视角探讨中国对外贸易发展与产品内分工之间的关系,以构建中国参与产品内分工的新格局为目的,推动我国贸易向全球价值链高端跃迁,实现我国贸易增长方式的根本性转变.     

刍议国际贸易中的贸易报复

20世纪 90年代后,随着经济全球化的发展,国际贸易领域中的争端和冲突日益增多,许多国家为了维护自己的经济利益,开始越来越多地采取贸易报复。目前,贸易报复已成为制约国际贸易发展的重要障碍之一,而要减少各国之间的贸易报复,首先需要真正地认识贸易报复。     

国际贸易理论的演进逻辑:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果

国际贸易理论历经古典贸易理论、新古典贸易理论、新贸易理论、新兴古典贸易理论和新新贸易理论五个阶段,主要回答三个基本问题:贸易动因、贸易结构和贸易结果。依据不同的假设,贸易理论对影响贸易的边界条件的解释各不相同,对贸易动因解释也不相同;贸易结构从行业间贸易、行业内贸易发展为企业间贸易,国际贸易正在向全球化下的企业分工演变;贸易结果是国际贸易得以持续展开的效果,生产力提升是最终的结果。基于三个基本问题,比较各种国际贸易理论,揭示各种国际贸易理论的局限性,并做出评价。     

贸易自由化与中性贸易体制

贸易体制中性化是贸易自由化的内在要求，但是，中性化并不等于自由化，贸易自由化必须包括贸易体制中性化和减少贸易干预两个方面。贸易自由化的实质是建立有效的市场经济机制，减少对贸易的行政干预是贸易自由化成功与否的关键所在。     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

The present study attempts to provide insight into the trade creation and trade diversion effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in goods, which came into force in 2010. The paper applies a theoretically consistent gravity model and uses empirically robust procedures such as ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood in order to analyze the ex post effects of the agreement at an aggregate level. The results reveal that standard gravity variables are statistically significant and report expected signs, yet a reduction in export flows has been observed following the implementation of the free trade agreement, giving rise to pure trade diversion effects.     

Do Trade Agreements Increase Food Trade?

In addition to multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization (WTO), the world has seen a remarkable proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the last two decades. This study investigates whether these multilateral and regional trade institutions increase food trade and bring the world into a freer flow of food. The gravity model of international trade is used for the empirical analysis. The model is developed in a large panel data setting and attempted to address some potential problems in the estimations including multilateral trade resistances, zero trade values and endogeneity. The results suggest that both the WTO and RTAs have delivered significant positive effects on trade among the participant countries, but not food. Only RTAs are found to have increased food trade among the participant countries. However, although on average the WTO is found to have negative implications on food trade, it facilitates the developing countries more than the developed countries.     

客户做什么生意，我们就做什么生意

要帮助客户做生意，自己应该成为一个合格的生意人，这样才能引起客户的共鸣和重视，赢得客户的尊重。[编者按]     

Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements

In a seminal article, Rose (2004) found that the assumed positive impact of the WTO on international trade was questionable. This finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research, using different data sets, econometric methods and separating the WTO from other forms of trade agreements. A key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together. Trade agreements come, however, in many different forms and shapes. This study addresses these differences in trade agreements. Using a unique database of 296 trade agreements, we distinguish 17 trade‐related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments. This extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade. Using a gravity model, we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the WTO.     

Growth and Trade vs. Trade and Growth

In the traditional trade literature, there is a well-developed area analyzing the effect of growth on trade and its reflection on income growth. This literature developed already in the 1950s and 1960s. Generally speaking, an interest in the effects of trade on growth has also existed for many years, where trade has often been viewed as an engine of growth. Cases in point are the "East Asian Tigers" and Japan which have especially benefited from outward-looking policies. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between economic growth and growth in income terms of trade, arguing that income terms of trade is a useful concept in analyses of the link between trade and growth. Our results suggest that fast-growing countries have either specialized in sectors with a relatively favorable development with regard to world market prices, or they have managed to successively improve quality within sectors, thereby avoiding falling terms of trade in spite of large increases in export volumes.