Mean reversion of inflation rates in seven Eastern European countries: An application of a fourier quantile unit root test

This paper applies recently developed Fourier quantile unit root test to investigate time-series property of inflation in seven Eastern European countries. This method combines the quantile unit root test with smooth unknown multiple breaks through Fourier function, and has good size and power when the data follows heavy tailed distribution. Our results show that the inflation rates are stationary within each quantile for Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Lithuania, while the other four countries contain a unit root within some quantiles. We also find the speed of inflation adjustment towards to its long-run equilibrium for each country is asymmetric. Our results have important policy implications for monetary authorities in these Eastern European countries.     

开放条件下不同泰勒规则在中国的适用性研究

通过构建开放经济条件下同时存在后顾性变量和前瞻性变量的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,利用MATLAB随机数值模拟比较分析三种不同泰勒规则在中国的应用性问题。结果表明,总需求冲击加剧了产出的波动,而总供给冲击不利于通货膨胀的稳定。比较福利后,发现简单的名义利率泰勒规则比复杂的泰勒规则更加适合于中国目前的经济发展状况。央行在设定目标损失函数时,应该减少汇率的权重,而增加通货膨胀的权重,这有利于减少中国居民整体福利的损失。     

Banking inefficiency in Central and Eastern European countries under a quadratic loss function

We employ a quadratic loss function using a forward-looking rational expectations model to estimate the dynamics of banking inefficiency scores in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 1998–2005. Results show that there is heterogeneity in the speed of adjustment to the long run equilibrium across countries and over time, while it appears that the recent accession to the EU has not led to an increase in the speed of adjustment, as it would be expected in light of the integration process prior to the accession. Ownership asserts certain influence on the speed at which banks correct past-period inefficiency.     

Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33     

河北省与中东欧国家中医药合作研究

近年来,中医药逐步走出国门,走向世界,在应对全球新型冠状病毒的防控阻击战中发挥的独特作用,更是让中医药在全球得到广泛关注。随着中国同中东欧国家在中医药领域交流合作日益深化,河北省应借力"一带一路"平台寻求与中东欧中医药合作的新机遇。首先介绍河北省与中东欧国家中医药合作现状,然后点明双方中医药合作具有潜力大且政策支持力度强的有利条件,进一步分析出双方中医药合作面临的问题:中医药国际标准不健全、专业复合型人才短缺、合作国家不均衡且合作模式单一,进而为促进河北省中医药产业快速发展,推动与中东欧国家深化合作提出相应的对策建议。