The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

广东经济籍CEPA增长效应分析

目前广东面,临出口的压力,投资的数量和质量也不够理想,经济增长速度逐渐被江浙鲁超越。在广东的经济发展“排头兵”地位受到长三角挑战的时候,CEPA签订了。CEPA带来的资金引进效应和出口促进效应不仅可以帮助广东突破经济发展的瓶颈,而且可以推动经济向更高的层次发展。     

Does foreign direct investment expand the capability set in the host economy? A sectoral analysis

Most empirical studies examining the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development use aggregate monetary-based measures such as GDP or TFP growth as indicators for development. We deviate from this approach and use instead the recently developed economic complexity index; this measure summarises the complexity of the productive structure of an economy, and its values can be interpreted as the number of capabilities present in a country. These capabilities are units of productive knowledge necessary for the production of goods, and goods differ in the number of necessary capabilities. Furthermore, we use sectoral FDI data to take differences between sectors of an economy into account, since the number of necessary capabilities also varies between the sectors. In our empirical analysis, covering 63 developing and developed countries over the period 2005–14, we find that FDI in the tertiary sector has a statistically significant and robust positive effect on the number of capabilities, whereas FDI in the primary and secondary sectors generally does not increase the capability set of an economy.     

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

我国纺织品出口需求弹性的区域性比较

利用面板数据模型(panel-data model)的计量方法,对我国东、中、西三大经济区域1993-2005年的纺织品出口需求弹性和服装出口需求弹性进行估计,揭示了这三个区域之间的差异,论证了东部地区总体和服装出口需求弹性均明显高于中西部地区,并对其差异的形成原因进行了简要分析,最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

简述区域经济一体化效应的事后研究方法

区域经济一体化效应的研究方法主要有事后研究方法和事前研究方法,贸易引力模型和经济增长模型是区域经济一体化效应研究中主要的事后研究方法。阐述了贸易引力模型的提出、一般形式、细化和扩展、在区域一体化研究中的应用及其缺陷以及经济增长模型的产生、应用和发展,以助于从多个角度来研究区域经济一体化效应问题。     

技术创新和人力资本对区域经济的动态影响

经济增长一直是世界各国永恒的话题。国内现阶段不同区域经济发展程度差异显著,因此探究区域长期经济增长的影响因素以及这些因素之间的动态关系是亟待解决的重要研究问题。研究通过构建人力资本—技术创新内生增长模型,探究人力资本和技术创新对于区域经济增长的影响,以及人力资本和技术创新的动态平衡关系。     

中国经济持续增长的根源探究

本文运用Barro回归模型对改革开放以来中国经济持续增长三十年进行实证分析发现,在中国经济持续增长中,工业化、城镇化、市场化和消费升级等反映经济制度和经济结构演变的部分持续效应较强,在持续增长前期占总贡献的40％,到后期占80％;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力和科技等投入要素部分持续效应较弱,前期占总贡献的60％,后期只占20％;物质资本、人力资本、劳动力持续作用呈现倒U型曲线。研究同时发现,后发优势的作用是显著的,但呈现L型曲线。     

Effects of Economic Recession on Export Activity

Abstract

Since 1920 there has been 15 economic recessions and expansions in the US and on average recessions have lasted just over a year. The most recent recession was that of 1989–1991, which, with the increased globalization of business, did not spare Australia. Using a geo-business model the research investigates changes in export managers' perceptions on a number of variables before and during the last recession. It also considers whether recession in the domestic market acted as a motivator for Australian firms to enter export markets. Data is analyzed from a survey that attracted respondents from 233 export firms. Findings are presented and implications for theory development and government and policy makers are discussed. Limitations are noted and directions for future research are indicated.     

消费信贷对经济增长的影响研究 ——以青海为例

近年来,我国消费信贷的规模不断扩大,基于鼓励消费的独特作用,消费信贷已成为促进我国经济增长的重要手段.本文利用青海省1995—2018年的时间序列数据,包括消费信贷余额与GDP,使用VAR模型来论证消费信贷与经济增长之间的关系.通过实证分析表明,青海省消费信贷的发展确实会促进经济增长,但由于诸多因素的存在,消费信贷对经...     

EQUITY CORRELATIONS IMPLIED BY INDEX OPTIONS: ESTIMATION AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

We propose a method for constructing an arbitrage‐free multiasset pricing model which is consistent with a set of observed single‐ and multiasset derivative prices. The pricing model is constructed as a random mixture of N reference models, where the distribution of mixture weights is obtained by solving a well‐posed convex optimization problem. Application of this method to equity and index options shows that, whereas multivariate diffusion models with constant correlation fail to match the prices of index and component options simultaneously, a jump‐diffusion model with a common jump component affecting all stocks enables to do so. Furthermore, we show that even within a parametric model class, there is a wide range of correlation patterns compatible with observed prices of index options. Our method allows, as a by product, to quantify this model uncertainty with no further computational effort and propose static hedging strategies for reducing the exposure of multiasset derivatives to model uncertainty.     

古典经济学与新古典经济学经济增长理论的比较分析

经济增长理论一直都是经济学家们不断努力研究和探索的领域,而真正能够把自己的主张理论化、体系化的,就要从亚当.斯密的《国富论》算起。从亚当.斯密开创的古典经济学派所提出的经济增长理论到当今盛行的内生增长模型以及制度经济增长模型,经济增长理论经历了不同阶段的发展。与古典经济学派的经济增长理论相比较,马歇尔的经济增长理论最明显的区别之处就是在考虑市场的时候,加入了需求方面的思考,并且在方法论中主要利用了主观主义以及边际分析方法和数学的方法,使人们注意到,生产并不是一切,只有供求平衡才能把具有稀缺性的资源分配到最适宜的地方,做到资源的有效配置。