Ein differenzierter Blick auf einen Euro-Austritt Griechenlands

Since the large current account deficit in Greece has become a source of concern regarding its sustainability, an increasing number of economists advocate the reintroduction of a devalued Greek drachma in order to improve the competitiveness of the Greek economy and help boost exports. This paper offers a contrasting perspective and puts the positive aspects of the reintroduction of the drachma in the context of legal and economic repercussions following the devaluation. The paper concludes that it is advisable for Greece to stay within the eurozone and counterbalance the ongoing austerity measures with investments to increase the competitiveness of its economy.     

Dynamics of capital account and current account in Sri Lanka

This paper enquires the dynamics of current account and capital account in Sri Lanka for the period 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q1 and also examines the role of some policy variables such as exchange rate and interest rate in this dynamics. Estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration followed by error correction representation of the ARDL model have found that current account is caused by capital account and exchange rate, where capital account causes to produce a deficit in current account. In the dynamic adjustment of current account due to exchange rate, an evidence of J-curve phenomenon is noticed. Capital account is neither caused by current account nor by exchange rate but interest rate has a positive impact on it. Robustness of these findings is testified by the vector autoregression model, Wald test of Granger causality followed by an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. These analyses, in addition, establish a negative impact of interest rate on current account. With the best of knowledge this is the first study that reveals the dynamics of current and capital account of Sri Lanka. Such a dynamics is critical from the policy perspective. Policy makers should caution before capital account liberalization.     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review

The purpose of the paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2003. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey's trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy emphasising the measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper points out that agriculture is highly protected, and that autonomous reforms have been implemented in some of the services sectors of the economy. Since joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation – the acquis communautaire– in all areas, Turkey needs to liberalise its agricultural and services sectors further. Finally, the paper discusses an issue that has largely been neglected in Trade Policy Reviews. It is the sustainability of current account. The paper stresses that Turkey needs to pay close attention to the sustainability of the current account.     

美国国际收支结构的特征、趋势分析及对中国的启示

美国日益增长的经常项目赤字和庞大的净对外债务已经成为影响世界经济的一个不确定因素。长期来看,以亚洲国家为外围主体为美国经常项目赤字融资这一复活的布雷顿森林体系难以长久存在,因而以“逆差+顺差”为特点的美国国际收支结构是很难持续的,美国的经常项目很可能会经历一次趋向平衡的调整过程。同时指出了中国对美国经常项目调整可能给中国经济发展带来冲击的应对措施。     

The US current account deficit: A fundamentally flawed development?

The American current account deficit has once more become the subject of public debate. The size of the deficit is seen by some observers as the main cause of the recent decline in the exchange rate of the dollar. Can the latter be taken as confirmation of the increasing warnings that, in view of the dependence of the US economy on capital imports, adjustment processes such as a dramatic slump in the dollar exchange rate are imminent? What fundamental developments lie behind the US current account deficit, and do they give cause for significant adjustment reactions?     

Does credit composition matter for current account dynamics? Evidence from Turkey

Based on a dynamic approach using the Kalman filter we depict effects of time-varying interactions between different components of credit stock on the current account in the Turkish Economy for the period 2002Q3–2014Q3. We decompose the credit stock into consumer and non-financial corporate sector credit and show empirically that both types of credit stock have negative effects on the current account dynamics.     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

The US dollar- scenario of a world currency

The exchange rate of the US dollar fell sharply last year. What part was played by the adverse “fundamentals” of the US economy, the large current account deficit, the country’s heavy foreign indebtedness and the substantial budget deficit? How will the dollar behave in future?     

美国经常项目赤字的可持续性研究

近年来,美国巨额经常项目赤字和美元持续贬值引起了经济学界的强烈关注,一些经济学家发出了美元和国际货币体系崩溃的警告。在现行国际货币体系即以资产为本位的泛布雷顿森林体系下,中心国家美国和外围亚洲国家形成了双赢的局面。该体系与布雷顿森林体系相比具有更大的安全性和稳定性,美国能够承受更大规模的经常项目赤字,并由此获得了更为灵活的政策操作空间。在某种程度上,美国巨额经常项目赤字是其雄厚的金融和经济实力的体现。     

Turkey: From a thriving economic past towards a rugged future? - An empirical analysis on the Turkish financial markets

Turkey had been economically thriving after the end of the economic crisis of 2001. Nonetheless, the recent depreciation of the Turkish lira proved the eventual fragility of the Turkish economy. This research attempts to examine whether the financial markets behavior had forecast this economic collapse. The results support that negative dynamics take place between the nominal exchange rate of Turkish lira and the Turkish stock market index in the long-run. Simultaneously, it is estimated that the uncovered equity parity had been in effect during the last decade but its impact highly deteriorated after March 2018. The Turkish policy makers will sooner or later have to either abandon the low interest rate policy or apply for financial assistance from the IMF.     

Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S.

In spite of concerns about “twin deficits” (fiscal and the current account deficits) for the United States economy, empirical evidence suggests that “twin divergence” is a more usual feature of the historical data, i.e., when fiscal accounts worsen, the current account improves and vice versa. This paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy (government budget deficit shocks) on the current account and the real exchange rate, during the flexible exchange rate regime period. Based on VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models, we identified “exogenous” fiscal policy shocks after controlling for business cycle effects on fiscal balances. In contrast to the predictions of most theoretical models, the U.S. results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock, or a government budget deficit shock, improve the current account and depreciate the real exchange rate. Increases in private savings and declines in investment contribute to the current account improvement while a nominal exchange rate depreciation, as opposed to a relative price level change, is mainly responsible for the real exchange rate depreciation. The “twin divergence” of fiscal balances and current account balances is also explained by the prevalence of output shocks, i.e. output shocks — more than fiscal shocks — appear to drive the co-movements of the current account and the fiscal balance.     

Current account sustainability in Latin America

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.     

Aid and Trade Sustainability under Liberalisation in Least Developed Countries

This study investigates the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments in 17 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) over the period 1970 to 2001. The paper also assesses the marginal relation between capital flows (e.g. aid flows) and import growth, and the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The higher import growth contrasts with the more modest export growth following trade liberalisation and that has fundamental policy implications, especially for the balance of trade and the balance of payments. However, the financing and sustainability of the trade deficit in the reforming countries will depend not only on the outcome of trade liberalisation, but also on other macroeconomic policies, developments in the real exchange rate and the inflows of foreign capital.     

我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。     

Anmerkungen zu „Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik“ von Georg Erber

Priewe rejects several propositions: The current account balance is not a sound indicator of the competitiveness of an economy, the direct use of gross capital inflows is not pre-determined by anyone other than foreign investors, capital flows do not determine the current account balance, bilateral capital flows between member countries of the eurozone are not relevant for the balance of payment, and absolving the surplus countries and solely blaming the deficit countries for improper use of capital inflows obfuscates the fact that both surplus and deficit countries are involved in the making of imbalances. In his reply, Erber stresses that the intention of his article was to point out that the empirical facts blaming Germany for being responsible for the current eurozone crisis are not supported by the data. Furthermore, current accounts are mere accounting identities. Therefore, focussing on the current accounts alone is insufficient for identifying the causes of the euro crisis.     

Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik

In the current crisis the current account surplus and deficit position of single member countries has been considered to be a key indicator of the internal imbalances of the eurozone. German current account surplusses are confronted with current account deficits in the GIIPS countries. But Germany’s current account surplus vis-à-vis these countries has rapidly declined since the outbreak of the global economic and financial crisis mostly caused by the drastic recession in these countries. Furthermore, the near-zero interest rate policy of the ECB has drastically reduced the interest payments from these countries to Germany.     

The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits and Tourism Receipts in Turkey

Current Account Deficits (CAD) in Turkey have reached significantly high levels in the recent years and discussions around the sustainability of these deficits continue. On the other hand, thanks to its rapid development within the same period, the tourism sector is observed to increase its positive contribution to the current accounts balances. This study is an initiative to highlight the contribution of the tourism sector to the sustainability of the CAD in Turkey. Unit root and Cointegration tests have been used to this end. This approach is applied to the long-run relationship between Exports + Tourism Receipts (X + TR) and Imports + Tourism Expenditures (M + TE) for the period of 1980Q1–2005Q2. We question the weak sustainability hypothesis where the cointegrating vector is (X + TR)_t = a + b(M + TE)_t + η _t . In this vector, if b equals to one and η_t is stationary, then the current account deficits are strongly sustainable, if b is between 0 and 1(0 < b < 1) and η_t is stationary or b = 1 but η_t is non-stationary, then the current account deficits are weakly sustainable and lastly, if there is no cointegration or b = 0, then the current account deficits are unsustainable. The empirical results indicate that CAD in Turkey are unsustainable in spite of the rising shares of tourism receipts in current account balances. Therefore, in Turkey, where exports are exceedingly depended on imports, which makes it not very easy to reduce imports, the only way to ensure that CAD are sustainable is to seek options to further increase the tourism receipts.     

美国巨额贸易逆差能维持吗

20世纪90年代以来,美国经常项目赤字不断膨胀,而美国出现的私人投资、消费高潮与高额财政赤字是其产生的主要原因。通过对基本因素与短期因素的考察,综合分析美国经济状况以及美元地位等因素后,得出的结论是近期美国经常项目赤字将保持增加趋势。     

Why Double Surplus in China's International Balance of Payments?

In accordance with the theory of development economics,developing countries should maintain a current account deficit and capital account surplus, and achieve a higher level of investment through foreign savings rather than just domestic savings. The international financial crisis not only hit the European and US economy, but also gave China's macro-micro economy a heavy blow.     

Boom‐and‐bust Cycles,External Imbalances and the Real Exchange Rate

When the current account balance and net capital outflows do not exactly offset each other, international payment flows arise. Payment flows into a country push the real exchange rate up, payment outflows push it down. This article uses a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice to determine the factors that drive international payment flows during boom‐and‐bust cycles. It shows that during such episodes, capital inflows first exceed the deficit on current account, strengthening the currency. Later on, when the return on domestic capital reverts to its normal level, the current account recovers, yet the overall decline of the net foreign asset position provokes a fall of the real exchange rate even below its initial level. Case studies of countries experiencing rapid economic expansions followed by economic and financial meltdowns confirm the article's theoretical predictions.