US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

农业国内支持政策研究综述

农业的弱质性和多功能性为农业国内支持政策提供理论依据,各国普遍对农业实施农业国内支持政策。由于OECD成员国在基期国内支持水平很高以及WTO农业协议与新一轮WTO谈判的约束,国外普遍利用定量的方法研究农业支持的消减、农业谈判、欧盟扩大和农业补贴的效率等国内支持相关问题;国内有关农业国内支持的研究一般停留在定性方面,农业国内支持的定量研究尤其是优化研究很少。因此,研究如何不断提高我国农业国内支持水平,优化国内支持结构,建立合理的农业国内支持政策体系,具有一定的理论意义与实践价值。     

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.     

Putting industries into the Eaton–Kortum model

The article introduces the industry dimension into the Eaton-Kortum model of trade. Industries are linked with each other by domestic and international trade in intermediate goods. The model is parametrized using data for eight industries in 1989. It is used to perform several counterfactual simulations that are relevant to today's policy debates. First, the model is used to study the effects of the US–EU trade wars. It is found that trade wars have a greater negative effect on countries with large initial net export positions. It is also found that some trade war scenarios are more beneficial to the US while others to the EU. Second, the model is used to study the effects of trade barrier reductions between the high-income and middle-income countries. The results show that this trade liberalization tends to reinforce the pattern of trade according to technological comparative advantages. The results also show which industries should be targeted for barrier reductions depending on policy goals. The third set of simulations investigates spillovers from the technological growth in the US machinery industry. The results show how geography, technology, and industry links affect the propagation of this growth across countries and industries.     

The European Union–West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement: Small impact and new questions

Despite recent modifications, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West African (WA) countries is still being criticized for its potential detrimental effects on WA countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the EPA on these countries. A dynamic multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium trade model with modeling of the dual–dual economy and with a consistent tariff aggregator is used to simulate a series of new scenarios that include updated information on the agreement. We also go beyond estimating macro-level economic effects to analyze the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that the implementation of the EPA between the EU and WA countries would have marginal but positive impacts on Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire and negative impacts on Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. The impact on poverty indicators in Ghana and Nigeria would be marginal. From the perspective of WA countries, this study supports the view that recent EU concessions are not sufficient and that domestic fiscal reforms are needed in WA countries themselves.     

国际农产品绿色贸易壁垒的制度效应分析

本文认为,农产品贸易自由化发展与环境的相容性是世界农业可持续发展的基本条件,必须建立农产品绿色贸易制度,以使环境成本内在化。考虑到绿色贸易制度对国际农产品贸易发展的双重性作用,对于其存在的制度缺陷,予以完善和适应将是世界各国的共同选择。文章提出,针对我国遭受绿色贸易壁垒的现状,应建立与国际接轨的绿色农产品制度,培育绿色经营和营销观念;逐步建立健全农产品质量标准体系;大力推进农产品产业化经营;调整农产品产业结构,发展生态农业;建立综合协调、适时高效的农产品出口促进贸易政策体系,以期积极跨越国际贸易中的绿色壁垒。     

论WTO中贸易自由化和国内管制权的平衡——以GATT第20条必要性检验为例

必要性检验是WTO相关协定中的重要概念之一。对于成员追求国内政策目标与多边贸易规则交错的情形日益增加的冲突,WTO以必要性检验作为平衡成员的管制权与自由贸易的重要工具。其基本价值在于平衡WTO成员方所面临的两种潜在冲突的价值:一方面承认成员可以采取一定措施以实现政策目标,另一方面防止成员采取过度限制贸易的措施。GATT第20条是WTO协定中保障贸易自由化与国内管制权的重要工具,分析第20条中必要性检验的内涵和具体运用,对于厘清WTO其他协定中必要性检验的含义具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。     

US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices

Stylised representations of recent US and Chinese tax reforms, tariffs against imports and alternative Chinese monetary targeting are examined using a calibrated global macro model that embodies both trade and financial interdependencies. For both countries, unilateral capital tax relief and bilateral tariffs are shown to be ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policies. As large economies, both enjoy ‘optimal tariffs’, even bilaterally, though net outcomes are shown to depend on the allocation of revenues. Bilateral tariffs are most advantageous for the US if the additional revenue finances indirect tax relief. Once US bilateral tariffs are imposed, China is a net loser irrespective of its policy response, though a currency float is shown to cushion the effects on its GDP in the short run. Equilibria in normal form non-cooperative tariff games have the US imposing tariffs while China liberalises.     

论入世后我国农产品国际贸易保护政策调整

在分析加入WTO对我国农产品国际贸易影响的基础上，探讨我国农产品国际贸易保护政策的改革与调整，即建立农业国内支持新体系；建立农产品国际贸易保护新体系和建立国家支农政策新体系。     

巴西农业支持水平及支持政策分析——基于OECD最新农业政策分析框架

20世纪80年代以来,巴西农业发展迅速,除了拥有丰富的农业自然资源之外,政府所采取的一系列农业支持政策对农业发展的贡献也不容忽视。在对比和介绍OECD与WTO的农业政策评价方法和指标的基础上,对巴西农业政策支持水平、支持结构演变特征进行了分析总结。在支持结构特征的研究中,阐述了巴西主要的支持政策工具、措施和目的。在此基础上提出对中国农业政策调整的理论建议。     

政府对农业物流合作经济组织发展的政策支持

"三农问题"是制约我国经济发展的一个重大问题,实现我国农业的发展和农民的增收更是这一问题的重中之重。发展农业物流合作经济组织已成为我国当前一项迫在眉睫的任务,农业物流合作经济组织的自治、自助、独立自主性,并不排斥政府的积极作用。     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

供应链分工情境下内贸流通研究的理论主题

随着生产要素的跨国流动和信息资源的全球共享,国别界限和空间分离不再成为限制市场范围和分工发展的主要因素;借由模块化网络,特定产品的生产可以被拆分为一系列独立模块,当这些模块被离散分布至不同国家的不同企业进行并经由核心企业的集中组织而完成最终生产,便构成了供应链分工的典型情境。这种分工使整体贸易活动的理论逻辑发生变化,内贸流通在其中的角色发生转换。供应链分工情境为内贸流通理论提供了新的逻辑起点,更新了内贸流通的研究主题,是流通基础理论发展的重要现实依据。     

“蓝箱”政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持的影响

利用"假设削减方案"的研究方法,模拟了"蓝箱"政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持(OTDS)的影响,并与主要的利益相关者美国、欧盟、日本、加拿大和巴西进行了对比,结果表明:"新蓝箱"将不会给中国国内支持带来较大冲击;而欧盟和美国将会受到较大冲击,但执行期结束时他们仍然能保留较大的扭曲性支持空间;"蓝箱"政策改革可能导致欧盟和美国调整国内支持政策,这将给中国等发展中国家的农业生产和贸易带来不确定性。