Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption,environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia

The aim of this document is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Tunisia over the period 1990–2015. Unit root tests and co-integration test was used in order to detect the order of stationary and to test the existence long run links between the used variables. We apply the Granger causality test and VECM model to discover the short and long run links between the variables. Results have shown a bidirectional causal relationship between energy use and CO₂ emissions. Economic growth affects CO₂ emission in the short and long run. While there is a unidirectional links running from energy use to economic growth at short run. The paper shares best practices from Tunisia in terms of efficient use of renewable energy policy enablers, which may be contextualized in other emerging economies in order to keep sustainability and to achieve the green economy.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from non-OPEC oil producing states

According to the US EIA (2009, www.eia.doe.gov), out of the 15 largest oil producing nations in the world, 7 are not OPEC members, namely Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Norway, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America (USA). This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for these non-OPEC oil producing countries. Real GDP per capita is used to measure economic growth; whereas; energy consumption is represented by four sub-variables (electric power, oil, natural gas, and coal energy). Using a panel data covering (1969–2009), this study employs the Pedroni (Econometric Theory, 20, 597–627, 2004) approach to determine cointegration and the (Econometrica, 55, 251–276, 1987) two-step procedure to explore short and long run causal effects. The results suggest that there are long run relationships between the real GDP, labour force, real capital, oil consumption, electricity consumption, gas consumption and coal consumption. Further analyses show that real GDP and oil consumption Granger cause real gross capital formation in the short run; real gross fixed capital and electricity consumption cause oil consumption in the short run; and also oil consumption and gas consumption cause electricity consumption in the short run.     

The Effect of Urbanization and Industrialization on Energy Use in Emerging Economies: Implications for Sustainable Development

This article investigates the impact of two important socio‐economic variables—urbanization and industrialization—on energy consumption in a panel of emerging economies. The results indicate that income increases energy consumption in both the long run and the short run. In the long run, urbanization decreases energy consumption, while industrialization increases it. Long‐run dynamics are important as evidenced by the estimated coefficient on the error correction term. These results have implications for sustainable development. Economic growth policies designed to increase income and industrialization will increase energy consumption. Since most energy needs in emerging economies are currently met by the burning of fossil fuels, economic growth and industrialization policies will be at odds with sustainable development.     

The relationship between trade,FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and economic growth in host countries remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature and met with renewed interest in recent years mainly for countries suffering from unemployment problems and lack of technological progress. This paper examines this issue for Tunisia by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration for the period from 1970 to 2008. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when foreign direct investment is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth, from economic growth to FDI, from trade to economic growth and from economic growth to trade in the short run. Even though there is a widespread belief that FDI can generate positive spillover externalities for the host country, our empirical results fail to confirm this belief for the case of Tunisia. They go against the generally accepted idea considering the positive impact of FDI on economic growth to be automatic. The results found for Tunisia can be generalized and compared to other developing countries which share a common experience in attracting FDI and trade liberalization.     

Inflation,output and stock prices: evidence from Latin America

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rate in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for the developing markets of Peru and Chile. Fama's model of linkages between inflation and real economic activity constitutes the theoretical framework of this paper. The study tests whether the negative relationship between equity returns and inflation is a result of a ‘proxy effect’, namely, a negative relationship between inflation and real economic activity. The evidence for Peru and Chile does not provide strong support for Fama's hypothesis. It is shown that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. The long‐run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak, as indicated by the findings of the Johansen and Juselius co‐integration tests. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long‐run equilibrium with the real economic activity. These findings suggest that in the long‐run, Fama's propositions A and B are supported for Peru and Chile. The disparity between traditional regression and co‐integration test results suggest that it may be prudent to re‐examine the proxy effect in the framework of a long‐run relationship before denying its validity. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国新能源消费与经济增长关系的实证分析

从实证的角度对我国新能源利用和经济增长的关系进行研究。首先,运用Granger因果关系检验分析发现,在短期内,新能源的消费是促进国内经济发展的一大动力。但是在长期,国内经济的高速发展也促进了新能源行业的快速发展。其次,将新能源和传统矿物质能源作为自变量建立了线性回归模型,结果表明新能源和传统矿物能源的消费均能促进我国经济的增长,但新能源对国内生产总值增长的贡献率大约是传统矿物质能源的24.7倍。因此,大力发展和探索新能源并逐渐用新能源代替传统能源,是保持我国经济高速增长的有效途径。     

Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in pakistan and turkey: an investigation using bounds test

In the literature empirical evidences regarding export-led growth (ELG), FDI-led exports, and growth-driven exports (GDE) hypotheses have been mixed and inconclusive. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model (Pesaran and Shin, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 1990) and tests the existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the determinants of growth during the period 1975?C2004 for Pakistan and Turkey. The results indicate that in the short run there is bi-directional causal relationship between trade openness and exports for Pakistan and FDI and exports relationship for Turkey. The long run relationship results support the growth-driven exports hypothesis for Turkey and openness-growth nexus in Pakistan.     

异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制

研究目标：测度改革开放近40年来,中国异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制。研究方法：基于煤炭、石油、天然气、电力消费以及GDP年度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移因果(MSC) 模型开展实证研究。研究发现：经济增长能够促进煤炭、石油、天然气和电力等异质性能源消费的提高,其中,石油和天然气消费的增加能够推动经济增长。经济增长对煤炭和石油消费的驱动作用持续期较长,对天然气和电力消费的驱动作用持续期较短,四种能源消费对经济增长驱动作用的时间长度大致相同。近年来,石油消费能够表现出对经济增长的非线性动态驱动作用,经济增长能够对石油和煤炭消费发挥非线性动态驱动作用。在金融危机时期,难以表现出经济增长对能源消费的单向时变因果影响,其中,煤炭、石油和天然气消费无法表现出对经济增长的单向时变因果影响,而电力消费对经济增长存在单向时变因果影响。研究创新：基于MSC模型,判断不同时段内异质性能源消费与经济增长的时变因果关系,进而揭示两者之间的非线性动态驱动机制。研究价值：为中国完成能源产业结构转型以及构建新时代能源产业体系提供经验证据。     

方法、数据与全要素生产率测算差异

研究目标：检验不同方法之间TFP测算结果的“一致性”和“稳健性”,探讨测算方法和数据选取问题。研究方法：以中国2004~2012年总量分行业面板数据为例,从多个角度比较TFP测算结果,以及通过统计检验选取适用测算方法。研究发现：第一,研究的问题不同,测算方法之间“一致性”的检验结论不同;第二,在选择测算方法时,进行相关统计量检验是必要的,这有助于鉴别模型设定是否合理,缩小可选模型范围;第三,测算方法的选择,要符合数据本身的特征,基于宏观分行业面板数据,DEA是更为适用的TFP测算方法,而劳动力投入应选取全社会从业人员指标。研究创新：多种测算方法和统计检验的应用。研究价值：本文尝试构建如何选择TFP测算方法的一般框架。     

Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach

This study investigates the effects of foreign capital inflows and economic growth on stock market capitalization in 18 Asian countries by using the panel data from the period of 2000–2010. The ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between the considered variables. Results indicate that foreign direct investment has significant negative and economic growth has significant positive relationship with the stock market capitalization, whereas, the results of workers’ remittances is found insignificant in long run. The error correction model confirms the significant positive relationship of economic growth and workers’ remittances while, FDI has negative and significant impact on stock market capitalization in short run. Results of causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66: 225–250, 1995) show the bidirectional causal relationship of foreign direct investment and economic growth with stock market capitalization. However, no causal relationship is found in between workers’ remittances and stock market capitalization. It is suggested that investor should not idealize the inflow of workers’ remittances to invest in Asian stock markets in long run. Simultaneously, size of the economy is a better leading indicator for Asian stock markets. On the other hand, inflows of FDI may mislead the investor to invest. Investor should keep on eye whether FDI come in the competition of domestic market or not? If this happens so investor should not invest in the stock market of host country.     

Contribution of female human capital in economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (1972–2012)

This study is to find out an impact of female human capital on economic growth of Pakistan. The study has therefore, used gender separate human capital as an explanatory variable along with other factors, labor force and physical capital. In this regard a composite human capital has been constructed by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The long run and short run dynamics among female human capital and economic growth are empirically tested on time series data spread from 1972–2012. Johanson’s co-integration approach has been applied for the long run and Vector Error Correction Model used for the short run relationship. The results show that the long run relationship between female human capital and economic growth is positive and significant. While the short run impact of female human capital on economic growth is positive but statistically insignificant.     

Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators’ as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without insurance innovation completely disappears in the long run. The present paper introduces risk averse agents into an occupational choice model of endogenous growth in which insurance against failure to innovate is not available. We derive a clear negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and long run growth. Surprisingly, we show that in an equilibrium there exists a cut-off value of risk aversion below which the growth rate of the mass of innovators tends to a strictly positive constant. In this case, innovation persists on the long run and consumption per capita grows at a strictly positive rate. On the other hand, for levels of risk aversion above the cut-off value, the economy eventually stagnates.     

Multivariate-based Granger causality between financial deepening and poverty: the case of Pakistan

This paper deals with the empirical investigation of causal relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction using quarter frequency data in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We applied the autoregressive distributed lag model bounds testing approach by incorporating structural breaks stemming in the series. The order of integration of the variables is examined by applying structural break unit root test. Our empirical exercise indicated that the long run relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction exists in case of Pakistan. The causality analysis implied that causality results are sensitive with the use of proxy for poverty reduction.     

人民币汇率调整与内外失衡的影响机理分析

本文运用协整分析建立误差修正模型,重点分析了我国经济内外均衡与人民币汇率调整机制之间的关系。研究表明:我国经济内外部均衡变量与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在着协整关系,短期内,对人民币实际有效汇率产生影响的主要是贸易顺差、货币供给量和经济增长因素。长期来看,决定长期汇率均衡走势的是实体因素(外汇储备、经济增长和货币供应量)。价格因素(通货膨胀率和利率)在短期内可能对汇率影响较大,但长期内不再重要。     

Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey

Based on ‘endogenous’ growth theory, the paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on long-run income per capita and economic growth in Turkey. Although the presumption must be that free trade has a beneficial effect on long run growth, counter examples can also be found. This controversy increases the importance of empirical work in this area. Using the most recent data we employ multivariate cointegration analysis to test the long run relationship among the variables in hand. In a multivariate context, the effect of determinants such as increasing returns to scale, investment in human and physical capital are also included in both theoretical and empirical works. Our causality evidence between the long run growth and a number of indicators of trade liberalizations confirms the predictions of the ‘new growth theory’. However, the overall effect of the possible breaks and/or policy change and unsustainability in the 1990s looks contradictory and deserves further investigation.     

A cointegration approach to modeling human capital formation,self-employment,and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan

This study aims to empirically investigate the dynamics of relationship among human capital formation, self-employment (SE), and economic growth in Pakistan. Using quarterly data of primary school enrollment, SE, and GDP per capita, we employed ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration covering the time span of 1995–2010. We found that in the long run, primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and SE have significant impact on economic growth. Enrollment in primary schools (EP) has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas enrollment in high school has a relatively small positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Further, SE has a small, positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. In short run, enrollments in high schools and SE have weak positive impact on economic growth whereas, EP has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Further it is found that that there is unidirectional long run causality from self employment to economic growth followed by the bidirectional short run causality between economic growth and high school enrollment, GDP per capita and primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and primary school enrollment.     

Temporary Equilibrium,Full Equilibrium,and Elasticity of Cost

The result by Morrison (1985) and Morrison and Schwarzt (1994) that there is an one-to-one relationship between the rate of economic capacity utilization and ratio of cost elasticities at the temporary and the full equilibrium has been instrumental in past studies on measuring economic capacity utilization and on adjusting indexes of productivity growth for temporary equilibrium. In this paper, dynamic duality and comparative dynamics are employed to assess the behavior of cost elasticity along an optimal path to the steady state. The analysis suggests that no a priori relationship exists between economic capacity utilization and elasticity of cost. The absence of an a priori relationship between these two economic variables implies that theoretical and empirical results based on past notions about the dynamic behavior of cost elasticity may have to be reconsidered.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

政府间转移支付与地方公共支出关系的实证研究——基于协整、VAR模型的分析

政府间转移支付的一个重要功能是增强地方政府的财力,满足其提供公共产品的需要。文章运用协整分析和VAR模型对我国政府间转移支付与地方公共支出之间的关系进行了实证考察。结果表明,在控制其他变量的影响后,政府间转移支付与地方公共支出之间存在长期均衡关系,而格兰杰因果检验表明二者是双向因果关系。以上结论意味着转移支付有利于地方财政支出的增加和财政纵向均衡目标的实现等含义。最后,文章给出了相应的政策建议。     

The linkages among energy consumption,economic growth,relative price,foreign direct investment,and financial development in Malaysia

The aim of this study is to analyse the causal relationship among energy consumption, economic growth, relative price, financial development (FD) and foreign direct investment in Malaysia using a multivariate framework. This study covers a sample from 1972 to 2009. Both the Johansen–Juselius cointegration test and bounds testing approach to cointegration consistently suggest that the variables are cointegrated. We find that energy consumption and economic growth Granger causes each other in the short and long run. In addition, both FDI-led growth and finance-led growth hypotheses are also supported by the findings from this study. Ultimately, energy is a prominent resource for financial sector development in Malaysia because we find that energy consumption Granger causes FD. Policymakers should implement a dual strategy that, on one hand, increases investment in energy infrastructure to ensure that the supply of energy is sufficient for the financial sector and economic development, while, on the other, encourages R&D in green technology such as exercising proper soil conservation techniques and sustainable farming practices in order to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. By doing so, environmental problems such as carbon dioxide emissions can be minimised without affecting economic growth and financial sector development in Malaysia.