Current EC-US economic conflicts

The danger of serious disagreements on the agricultural question and a trade war developing between the EC and the USA may never have been as great as it is today: on the one hand, the EC has less and less leeway for its foreign trade policy because the problems in financing its agricultural policy are still unsolved and, on the other hand, no major concessions can be expected of the Reagan administration in an election year. Yet agriculture is only one of a series of fields of economic activity where Euro-American collisions are continually occurring.     

Economic sentiment shocks and fluctuations in economic activity in the euro area and the USA

Economic sentiment indicators can provide a wealth of information for macroeconomic policy formulation and analysis. Despite this, economic sentiment is often neglected by mainstream economics. This article assesses whether there is a potential role for economic sentiment to amplify business cycle fluctuations. This paper integrates the European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator data into an econometric analysis of the euro area business cycle. The investigation of the euro area economy suggests that sentiment shocks do have an impact on important macroeconomic variables such as output, retail sales, and unemployment. There is furthermore significant evidence that economic conditions and shocks affect economic sentiment.     

Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

Free trade,protection and economic development

Central to the following discussion is the assertion that a foreign trade policy which maximizes the static efficiency gains from trade may result in reduced dynamic or X-efficiency and thus impair a developing country’s development potential. The dominant view of the relation between international specialization and economic development is summarized. An alternative line of argument is presented in outline. Finally, the implications for development policy are sketched.     

China’s economic policy on a new course

Since Mao’s death China has greatly strengthened its contacts with Western industrialized states. This year the People’s Republic has concluded trade agreements with Japan and the European Community, amongst others. All these activities suggest that China’s economic policy is set on a new course.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

Bevölkerungsstimmung als Indikator für das Wirtschaftswachstum

Established economic forecasts are generally based on complex econometric models which include a wide array of input variables. The Allensbach Institute, one of Germany's leading opinion poll institutes, poses a question at the end of each year asking Germans about their expectations for the coming year. Remarkably, the findings obtained in response to this so-called “New Year’s question” or the forecasts derived from the results bear a strong resemblance to the actual economic trends in Germany — and in part correlate even more closely with the actual economic growth rate than the forecasts published by the German Council of Economic Experts and the Joint Economic Forecasts issued by the leading German economic research institutes.     

Foreign indebtedness and economic growth: The Philippines

Problems of indebtedness in developing countries are not isolated occurrences. The example of the Philippines, however, is for many reasons a most interesting one. On the one hand, borrowing already once culminated in a debt crisis at the end of the 60s. On the other, the Philippine foreign debt situation has deteriorated faster than that of other highly-indebted countries recently. This article sets out to analyse Philippine borrowing by using an econometric model against the background of the economic policies actually pursued. What are the prospects for the Philippines during the 80s?     

浙江信息化对地区经济增长促进作用及机理的实证研究

以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数为基础,采用1978年～2009年的浙江省GDP、资本投资总额、从业人员、邮电业务量的时间序列数据,建立被解释变量GDP与解释变量之间的计量经济模型,研究表明:信息化对于促进浙江省经济增长具有显著的正向作用,最后提出完善政策法规、改革管理体制、加大政府投入、强化人才培养和管理等方面的政策建议.     

The HWWA econometric model for economic forecasts

Econometric models are often used to forecast economic developments. Does the use of computer-based econometric procedures help sharpen our view of the future or are we blinkered by the supposed ‘precision’ of such models? What problems arise when building national economic models and when these models are used for forecasting purposes? These issues are examined with reference to the HWWA model.     

New policy uncertainties in the economic outlook

There are a lot of new policy uncertainties, though there is some room, even off a baseline starting near full employment, for the Administration’s policies on taxes, infrastructure, and regulation, to lift economic growth. However, the downside risks from the Administration’s proposals on trade and immigration are significant.     

Factors Influencing China’s Exports with a Spatial Econometric Model

This article employs a spatial econometric model to examine whether China’s exports are affected by political risk, economic integration, and spatial effects. The results show that as China’s economy has grown, a home market effect is evident for its exports. A higher level of economic integration is beneficial to China’s exports. A substitutive relationship is discovered between China’s OFDI and exports. In addition, the higher income per capita of partner countries and the high degree of economic openness are both beneficial to China’s exports. The partner countries of China, with their higher values of export trade, have been mostly countries with lower political risk.     

Regional Integration and Trade: Controlling for Varying Degrees of Heterogeneity in the Gravity Model

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the 1990s prompted a renewal of interest in studying the effect of regional integration on trade. Using a panel dataset of bilateral export flows from 12 EU countries to 20 OECD trading partners over the period 1992–2003, the trade effect of European regional integration, denoted by an EU dummy, is examined across a number of fixed effects (FE) specifications, each of which has been claimed as the correct econometric specification of the gravity model. Typically parsimonious in (time‐varying) economic variables and abundant in fixed effects, the FE specifications allow for varying degrees of heterogeneity in the gravity model. Two gravity models are estimated: a gravity model of traditional trade determinants and a gravity model of new trade theory (NTT) determinants. Both gravity models provide reasonable coefficient estimates, although they vary somewhat across the FE specifications for the traditional gravity model. Both gravity models are congruent in suggesting that the coefficient of the EU dummy declines in magnitude and becomes insignificant as an increasing degree of heterogeneity is admitted into the model. This suggests the fundamental importance of the econometric specification when evaluating trade policy effects within a gravity framework.     

Administrative regimentation and economic reform in China

The West has scored an economic “victory” in Eastern Europe. In the Far East, on the other hand, developments appear to be slipping out of its hands: not only Japan but also, to an ever greater extent, South Korea and Taiwan have been growing into serious competitors in more and more sectors; China, meanwhile, evidently now has only a limited interest in economic cooperation with the West. What course will future economic policy in the People’s Republic of China take?     

Accounting and economic returns in British coal mining: The Carlton Main colliery, 1872–1909

Various estimates, both ex ante and ex post, have been produced of the accounting rate of return on investments in the late nineteenth-century coal industry, with some ex post figures also being calculated for individual firms engaged therein, such as the Consett Iron Co. Ltd. No one, however, has previously tried to calculate the economic rate of return from investing in a single coal mine over the duration of its life. In this article we examine both accounting and economic rates of return for the Carlton Main colliery, from its sinking during the 1870s through to its closure in 1909. Our results enable us to judge the accuracy of previous estimates of returns for the late nineteenth-century coal industry, and of contemporary estimates of the potential rate of return in coal mining. We also offer insights into the efficacy of using accounting rates of return as an indicator of the economic rate of return during that period.     

Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis

A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially, which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation–inequality relationship. We use a new data set consisting of 1,254 observations from 123 primary studies. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtain several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) inequality-increasing effect. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizeable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, we find an average inequality-increasing impact of globalisation in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality.     

China’s open-door policy and its significance for transformation of the economic system

The open-door policy of the People’s Republic of China is entering its 14th year in 1993. Petra Pissula and Dieter Lösch¹ presented a report in 1990 in which they took stock of the successes and failures of this policy by taking the special economic zones as an example, and they tended to assess China’s future foreign trade activities pessimistically. Further progress has occurred in the open-door policy since that time, so that a revised evaluation is necessary. The aim of the present article is to show the more recent developments and problems and to examine the relationships between reforms and the open-door policy, particularly from the point of view of system transformation.     

Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism

This paper applies modern tools of economic analysis to examine the nature of transnational terrorism and associated collective action concerns that arise in the aftermath of September 11. Throughout the paper, the strategic interaction between rational terrorists and targeted governments are underscored. Networked terrorists draw on their collective strengths to exploit a maximum advantage over targeted governments’ inadequate and uncoordinated responses. A wide range of issues are explored including governments’ deterrence races, undersupplied pre‐emption, and suicidal attacks. Myriad substitutions by terrorists limit government anti‐terrorism policy effectiveness. A host of policy responses are evaluated in light of economic analysis and past econometric evidence.     

Exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from innovative econometric methods

This study examined the relationship between exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It employed innovative econometric methods, including the Fourier ADF with structural break test, a comparative analysis of three causality tests and a rolling causality test procedure. The findings suggested that there was a statistically significant relationship between exports and economic growth in several Sub-Saharan countries. However, the causal linkages between exports and economic growth in these countries were found to be weak and unstable. These empirical results have some notable policy implications.