Estimating the Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: A Comparison of Traditional and Lorenz-Concentration Curve Methodologies

This paper provides a comparative analysis of traditional and Lorenz concentration curve (LC) approaches to estimating the income elasticity of demand for housing. Using data from the 1989 American Housing Survey, we compare LC results with those obtained from a traditional model in which tenure choice and housing demand are jointly determined, and which includes non-income determinants of demand. The comparison is intended to provide researchers with information concerning specific differences in empirical results obtained using the two approaches.     

Strengthening Access to Land for Housing for the Poor in Maputo,Mozambique

Informal, or illegal, occupation of land is growing in importance in the cities of the developing world, especially sub‐Saharan Africa. The widespread nature of ‘illegality’ in some situations has led to queries of whether this should be termed ‘illegal’, and this is particularly so where there are potentially different entities bestowing legality. It has been increasingly recognized that informal land development is a solution for access to land by the urban poor, where formal supply is inadequate and inflexible, but that there need to be more efficient relationships between the formal and informal sectors. It is thus argued that new forms of association and new forms of partnership across the formal boundary are required. This article looks at the situation of land access for housing in Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, with a focus on the poor majority, and suggests alternative mechanisms for urban land rights to the simplistic application of full freehold tenure in formal land markets. These alternative mechanisms are based on structures within civil society, as it is argued that where the state and market are weak, as in Mozambique, these are more appropriate and less alienating for the urban poor majority. L'occupation irrégulière, voire illégale, des terrains s'accroît dans les villes des pays en développement, notamment en Afrique sub‐saharienne. Le caractère répandu de ‘l'illégalité’ dans certaines situations a conduit à s'interroger sur la pertinence du terme ‘illégal’, en particulier quand différentes entités sont susceptibles d'accorder la légalité. De plus en plus souvent, il est reconnu que l'aménagement non‐officiel du sol est une solution permettant aux citadins pauvres d'accéder à la terre (lorsque l'offre officielle n'est ni suffisante ni souple), mais que les relations entre les secteurs officiels et non‐officiels doiventÀtre plus performantes. L'article affirme qu'il faut créer de nouvelles formes d'association et de partenariat dépassant le cadre officiel. Il observe la situation de l'accès foncier pour le logement à Maputo, capitale du Mozambique, en considérant la majorité pauvre, et suggère d'autres mécanismes pour les droits fonciers urbains jusqu'à la demande toute simple de la pleine propriété sur des marchés fonciers officiels. Ces mécanismes de substitution sont basés sur des structures appartenant à la société civile, car lorsque l'État et le marché sont faibles, comme au Mozambique, ces mécanismes sont plus appropriés et moins aliénants pour la majorité urbaine pauvre.     

需求释放、房价走势与对策建议

本文在分析了房地产市场刚性需求、改善需求和投资需求等三大需求及影响因素后,指出刚性需求是房地产市场平稳健康发展的基石,刚性需求释放是房价见底的信号,改善性需求释放是房价上涨的信号,投资需求的释放将加快房价上涨。同时,针对房地产市场出现的新情况、新问题提出了相应的政策建议:一是严格执行房地产调控政策,坚决抑制地方政府短视行为;二是房地产调控政策差别化执行,降低交易税费和贷款利率支持刚需;三是增加有效供给,避免刚性需求释放造成的供需失衡。     

发展住房保障制度是缓解住房矛盾的关键

一、住房保障制度就是保障人人有房住的制度一段时间来,解决住房困难、改善住房条件成为了人们普遍关注的焦点。“穷人能否买得起房子”也引起了很多争论。一些媒体舆论提出,政策应当保障老百姓“居者有其屋”。     

Latent Demand for Urban Housing in the People's Republic of China

A new micro-data set demonstrates that, in urban China, own-built dwellings are 75% larger than state-owned dwellings. A switching regression with endogenous switching demonstrates that families with less privileged positions in the Chinese economy are more likely to inhabit own-built housing. The relationships between family characteristics and dwelling sizes in the own-built and state-owned sectors differ dramatically. However, unobserved characteristics, probably includingguanxi, play crucial roles in both. Depending on these characteristics, families in state-owned dwellings might have two-thirds more living space were they to choose own-built dwellings.     

Land Value Taxation and Housing Development

A bstract . The effects of land value taxation on housing development are studied in three disparate cities: Pittsburgh, McKeesport, and New Castle, Pennsylvania. These places are examples of three different types of city: central city, suburban city , and relatively isolated city , respectively. Shifting taxes from buildings to land is hypothesized to have different effects in the different types of cities. A liquidity effect , due to increases in the land tax rate , is expected to operate in all three types of cities. An incentive effect , due to decreases in the tax rate on improvements , is expected to function in central cities and, possibly, in relatively isolated cities. It is not expected to be important in suburban cities such as McKeesport. An incentive effect was found in Pittsburgh, but not in the other two cities. No evidence of a liquidity effect was found in any of the three cities. An explanation of why observed effects may not conform with hypotheses is given.     

运用需求函数分析我国住房消费状况及住房金融的对策

本文根据当前我国住房市场的主要矛盾已转移至有效需求不足的新特点，对住房需求的相关理论和实际状况进行了较系统的研究分析。以期发现启动住房需求，建立和完善住房市场的新思路，为我国住房金融和房地产市场的发展提供新的理论依据。     

Effective Rental Housing Demand in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region

This paper reports on the estimation of housing demand for tenants in Tokyo Metropolitan Region using household level data for 1993. The results indicate that the rental housing demand is inelastic with respect to permanent income and price, with coefficients as 0.31 and -0.093 respectively. Other important variables, which determine housing demand for tenants are length of stay and type of household. Larger households demand more housing. However, keeping the size of household constant, households with elderly members have higher demand for housing. The only exception to the rule is households formed with members not belonging to same nucleus family demand less housing.     

The demand for rental housing: Evidence from the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment

This paper provides new evidence on the price and income elasticities of demand for rental housing by low income households. Housing expenditures of households participating in the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment and receiving housing allowances in the form of a proportional rent rebate are analyzed. These rent rebates experimentally vary the effective relative price of housing and thus enable estimation of the price elasticities. Natural income variation enables estimation of income elasticities. Analysis is carried out using two functional forms and a variety of models of housing dynamics. The estimated income and price elasticities of demand are 0.36 and −0.22, respectively. When the sample is restricted to include only households headed by couples, the elasticity estimates are 0.47 for income and −0.36 for price. These estimates are lower (in absolute value) than have been previously estimated and it is suggested that this may be due to the low-income nature of the sample.     

The Effect of the Probability of Marriage on Housing Demand for Single Women

This paper uses a simultaneous system of three equations to model housing choices for female-headed households (FHH). The system includes housing demand, the probability of owning, and the probability of marriage. Also, a wealth gap variable related to the downpayment constraint is measured and included in the tenure choice estimation. The probability of owning is lower for female householders anticipating marriage. The wealth gap significantly affects the home-ownership decision for all households, and wealth constrained FHHs are significantly more responsive to changes in the relative price of owning.     

住房市场的刚性需求与投资需求测算——以北京市为例

对微观经济学中的需求价格弹性进行了修正,提出了测算住房市场中刚性需求和投资需求的方法,并实际测算了北京市住房市场的刚性需求和投资需求。结果表明,北京市住房市场刚性需求和投资需求的比例在每一年度都不尽相同,部分年份刚性需求占主导地位,部分年份投资需求占主导地位;同时,投资需求和住房价格增长率之间呈现很好的同步关系,在投资需求占主导地位的年份,住房价格增长速度明显加快。     

房价与地价关系的分析

地价与房价是衡量房地产市场运行健康状况的两个重要指标。明确房价和地价的关系,不仅对分析房地产市场的运行具有重要的意义,而且还能直接或间接地影响着房地产市场的有序发展。文章主要对此进行了简单的分析。     

Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement

This paper describes the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, residential investment, credit, interest rates, and real activity in advanced economies during the past 25 years. Stylized facts and regularities are uncovered using a dynamic generalized factor model and spectral techniques. House price cycles are found to lead credit and real activity over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. Although global factors are important, the US business cycle, housing cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the US credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.     

城市住房与土地管治策略研究

以北京市为例,通过透视城市住房问题中的相关土地因素,重申城市土地与住房的特殊属性,强调在兼顾公平的社会主义市场经济条件下我国城市土地与住房配置很难实现完全竞争市场.因此,在经济社会不断转型的关键时期,建议城市政府合理运用管治理念、放宽视野、重塑角色,以多元利益平衡为先导,改善土地与住房的市场环境,逐步实现城市住房的科学...     

Urban Regulations and the Price of Land and Housing in Korea

South Korea is a remarkable macroeconomic success story, but it has performed relatively poorly in one respect: the provision of high quality housing at reasonable prices. This paper analyzes the Korean housing market and the market for related inputs, with special emphasis on the regulatory environment.     

保障性住房用地供给效率评价研究——以南京都市区为例

在对近些年来学者们关于保障性住房用地供给方面的学术成果进行系统回顾后,提出保障性住房用地供给效率的概念,并对其内涵进行分析,初步建立了保障性住房用地供给效率评价的一般分析框架,构建了包括供需效率、结构效率和空间配置效率在内的保障性住房用地供给效率的评价体系,并以南京市为例进行了实证研究,为提高南京市保障性住房用地供给效率提出相关的政策建议.     

城镇新移民住房支付能力和需求分析

近年来,在城镇稳定就业的新移民住房问题突显,能否妥善解决这部分人的安居问题,成为提升城镇化质量的关键。以城镇化过程中流入城市并稳定就业的新移民为研究对象,通过对城镇新移民住房支付能力和需求特征进行研究,为有针对性地制定这一群体的住房保障政策提供研究依据。     

Modernization,Neighbourhood Management and Social Inclusion

Social inclusion is a central goal of the UK New Labour Government, which it is aiming to achieve partly through neighbourhood interventions. This article argues that achieving social inclusion requires a combination of New Labour policies for democratic renewal and tackling social exclusion and it identifies four dimensions along which activity towards social inclusion can be judged. The article draws on evidence from one English city to highlight the contribution of neighbourhood policies and programmes to social inclusion. It considers the strengths and limitations of three approaches and concludes that to achieve social inclusion the collective capacity of the three approaches is essential. However, closer examination of the Government's proposals suggests several obstacles to achieving their combined potential. A particular obstacle is the marginalization of local government and its unique contribution and the article concludes that without this New Labour is will fail to deliver on a key component of social inclusion.     

地价与房价关系探析

在对房地产市场结构、运行模式分析的基础上,分析并阐述地价与房价之间的关系。为了清楚揭示这二者之间的关系,首先对“地价是否是房价的决定因素”这个问题进行了探讨,并在此基础上从市场角度出发,沿着市场→房价→地价这条主线,揭示在市场作用下受供求关系的影响房价不断攀升,而且有力推动地价上涨。接着,继续研究地价、房价的变动对房地产市场所产生的影响,揭示了当前地价、房价的上涨不但没有降低需求热度,反而使开发商和购房者的购买欲更旺,市场的供求差距进一步拉大,以此形成一个循环正反馈链。最后,针对房价上涨,对中央政府和地方政府的协调行为提出了几点建议。     

房价、房产税、土地财政困境的研究综述与思考

本文回顾了近年来有关房产税在立法基础、对于房价的影响、公平性等问题上的一些讨论成果。首先,房产税立法确有瑕疵,需进一步完善法制体系;其次,沪渝试点房产税设计对于房价的抑制作用有限。