我国公共支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

在我国经济体制转轨的过程中,财政支出结构还没有脱离"生产性财政"的窠臼,财政支出结构僵化,财政支出职能的缺位和越位同时并存。文章通过实证分析表明,对于中国而言,增加政府的经常性支出有利于经济增长,增加政府的资本性支出妨碍经济增长,且我国财政支出结构还没有达到最优状况,经常性项目支出太少,资本性项目上支出太多。     

公共资本性支出、经常性支出与内生经济增长

本文基于一个含有两类不同产出能力的公共商品的内生增长模型,通过数理分析得出在市场经济条件下最优公共支出结构的依据是公共商品各自的产出弹性.进而采用面板数据模型对13个发达国家1972～2009年的公共支出实践进行了实证研究.实证结果表明,经常性(资本性)支出对经济增长有正(负)效应.该研究结论为平衡预算下的公共支出结构决策提供了参考依据.     

财政支出与经济增长关系研究——基于中国1978～2005年数据的验证

本文利用1978～2005年时间序列数据,计量检验了瓦格纳定律,并从财政支出功能性质分类角度研究我国财政支出与经济增长的关系.结果表明,瓦格纳定律在中国无法得到印证;经济建设支出、社会文教支出和国防支出对人均GNP都有正向的影响,且同等数量的社会文教支出比经济建设支出对经济增长影响更大,行政管理支出对人均GNP的影响微乎其微.     

财政支出结构与经济增长关系的实证研究——以河南省为例

文章通过建立财政支出与经济增长模型,结合河南省财政支出的有关数据,具体分析了财政支出总量与经济增长的关系,结果表明财政支出总量对区域经济增长有正的影响作用,进而分析了各类财政支出与经济增长之间的关系,认为河南各类财政支出对经济增长都有一定的促进作用,但财政支出结构还存在很多不合理的因素,支出结构有待进一步的调整。通过实证研究以便使河南省政府部门更合理地分配财政支出,使财政支出更好地促进经济增长。     

财政支出结构与经济增长

通过构建理论模型和经验模型,我们可以得出以下结论:(1)财政支出总水平与经济增长负相关,财政生产性支出与经济增长正相关。(2)财政人力资本投资比物质资本投资更能提高经济增长率。(3)用于科学研究的支出所带来的经济增长远远高于物质资本投资和人力资本投资所带来的经济增长。这些结论对政府今后调整财政支出政策,优化财政支出结构,确定财政支出重点,具有重要的政策含义。     

财政政策对居民消费需求的影响

本文使用了中国1990～2009年度数据做二元回归计量模型,用普通最小二乘法考察了财政支出结构中资本性支出与保障性支出对居民消费支出的影响程度.结果表明两者对消费需求的影响呈现正相关关系,但是资本性支出带动居民消费支出的比例小于保障性支出的带动作用,故建议中国在财政支出改革中应减小投资性支出而增加保障性支出,解决国民消费时产生的不安全感.     

财政理论应重视对政府储蓄的研究

人们往往把储蓄与金融学的研究联系在一起。实际上,储蓄与财政分配之间也有着十分密切的关系。特别是,作为国民储蓄组成部分的政府储蓄,它与财政分配之间的联系更直接、更明显。1.政府储蓄是财政收支运动的结果。在现代经济学中,储蓄是一个含义相当广泛的概念,它是指一定时期收入中未用于消费后的部分,即储蓄等于收入减消费。依据储蓄的这一基本定义,政府取得财政收入,安排财政支出,其结果也会形成一定的储蓄,即政府储蓄。这是因为,政府的财政支出中包含有两种性质完全不同的支出:一种是经常性支出即消费性支出,另一种是资本性支出或投资性…     

地方政府财政支出与经济增长关系的实证分析——以北京市为例

本文着重分析了改革开放后北京市政府财政支出与经济增长的关系,发现经济增长促进了政府财政支出规模的扩张。根据各项支出对经济增长的影响,本文划分出生产性支出和非生产性支出两大类别,并利用VAR模型和IRF检验了生产性财政支出冲击与非生产性财政支出冲击对经济增长的影响。通过了解这种影响模式,将为判断2008年后北京市经济增长趋向提供一种思路。     

促进我国经济增长的最优财政支出结构研究

本文采用Barro在内生经济增长模型中讨论最优税收结构的框架,分析经济增长中的最优财政支出结构.模型的结果表明,当经济增长率最大化时,各项财政支出所占的比重等于该项财政支出的边际生产力贡献与财政总支出的边际生产力贡献之比.同时,通过运用我国1980～2000年之间的各项数据进行实证分析得出:在财政支出结构中,行政管理支出与经济增长之间呈负相关关系,社会文教支出和国防支出与经济增长之间呈正相关关系,我国财政支出结构需要进一步优化.     

财政支出对经济增长的效应分析

随着经济的发展,财政支出的不同组成部分对经济增长的影响日益重要,但学术界对此问题的研究尚不多见。本文在对财政支出进行科学分类的基础上,从理论上系统分析了公共投资支出、公共消费支出、公共事业支出和公共服务支出对经济增长的不同效应。并以中国为样本,通过模型数值模拟了财政支出各个组成部分对经济增长的影响,并以此为据提出了相关政策建议。     

国防支出与经济增长均衡关系的理论和实证研究——基于门槛回归模型的检验分析

文章首先将国防支出纳入Solow增长模型进行理论分析,假定国防支出通过影响技术进步对经济增长产生影响。与现有实证分析不同,文章基于1952-2008年中国的有关时间序列数据,尝试运用非线性门槛回归模型来分析国防支出与经济增长之间的数量关系。研究发现:国防支出与经济增长之间存在门槛效应,国防支出占GDP的比例低于3.434%时,国防支出占GDP的比例的增加不利于经济增长,且这种负面作用较为显著;当该比例高于3.434%时,该比例的增加将显著促进经济增长。当然,该比例并非越低越好,也并非越高越好,其局部最优规模由次级门槛值决定。     

Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries

Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 for 34 OECD countries, we examine the effects of government consumption spending, public social spending, and public investment on economic growth. We use a generalized method of moments estimation technique to solve inconsistency problems with fixed effects and random effects panel estimation. We find that an increase in public social spending has a significant negative effect on subsequent economic growth. Government consumption spending and public investment have no significant effect on subsequent economic growth.     

Defence spending,economic growth and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan and mainland China, 1952-1995

This paper uses a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to examine the causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth for Taiwan and Mainland China over the period 1952–1995. It is found that these two variables are not cointegrated for both countries studied. The results of the Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality (feedback) between defence spending and economic growth for Taiwan, unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to defence spending for Mainland China, and unidirectional Granger causality running from Taiwan's defence spending to Mainland China's defence spending for cross-country studied. These results further indicate that there exists no arms race between two countries from both sides of Taiwan strait. Furthermore, impulse responses and variance decompositions are incorporated into the analysis. The results from the impulse responses and variance decompositions tell a similar story.     

Measuring the Human Capital Intensity of Government Spending and its Impact on Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries

This paper contradicts previous findings of a lack of relationship between government spending and long run economic growth. The paper argues that government spending has several opposing effects on growth. I focus on one of these, 'relative wage effects,' involving the human capital intensity of government spending. The paper constructs two rough measures of this variable for a diverse cross-section of countries, and uses them to disentangle relative wage effects from other effects of government spending. The paper finds that, after netting out relative wage effects, government spending is positively correlated with growth across countries. Furthermore, as the theory predicts, relative wage effects appear to be empirically important in countries where (a) government spending comprises a sufficiently large share of aggregate spending, and (b) government spending is particularly human capital-intensive.     

Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit

In this paper, we investigate the causal relationship between defense spending and economic growth in Portugal during the period of 1980–2010. We apply the ARDL bounds testing approach in the presence of structural break. The ARDL–ECM estimation results disclose that the relations between defense spending, capital, labor and economic growth are country specific. The interesting finding of this study is that there is a U-shaped relationship that exists between defense spending and economic growth. In addition, the unidirectional causality from defense spending to economic growth exists in the case of Portugal. Therefore, defense spending can play an important role in economic development of Portugal.     

国防支出与经济增长关系的战略选择——一个数理模型的分析与模拟

国防支出与经济增长之间的关系到底如何、怎样安排国防支出才能有利于国防和经济建设,这是国防经济学必须回答的基本问题。文章在一系列假设前提下,构建了一个简单的数学模型,描述了经济总量制约国防支出、国防支出又反作用于经济增长的内在机理,并通过数字模拟比较了三种国防支出战略对于经济增长和国防资本积累的不同影响,对现实中的很多问题给予了解释,得出了一些有意义的结论。     

Generational conflict and education politics: Implications for growth and welfare

This study considers the politics of public education and its impact on economic growth and welfare across generations. We employ probabilistic voting to demonstrate the generational conflict regarding taxes and spending and show that aging shifts the tax burden from the retired to the working generation, reduces public education spending, and ultimately slows economic growth. We subsequently consider a legal constraint that aims to boost education spending: a spending floor for education. This constraint stimulates economic growth but creates a trade-off between current and future generations’ welfare. Finally, the quantitative implications of our results are explored by calibrating the model to the Japanese economy.     

Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth–higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth–lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth–higher growth volatility periods.     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

财政政策对经济增长和收入分配的长期影响效应分析

政府财政政策对经济增长和收入分配有不同的影响,其中,政府消费性支出和投资性支出均对经济增长有正的促进作用,但政府支出却加大了居民收入分配的差距;税收对我国经济增长的影响均为负,其中,间接税缩小了居民收入分配差距,而直接税却拉大了居民的收入分配差距。