Valuation Implications of Investment Opportunities and Earnings Permanence

This study investigates the value-relevance of accounting earnings in the presence of investment (growth) opportunities after making two theoretical and methodological research design refinements. First, we test for the incremental effect of growth on firms earnings response coefficients after controlling for the extent of transitory earnings under the assumption that the value-relevance of earnings with respect to growth should be stronger when earnings are more permanent. Second, we perform comprehensive factor analysis using market-based and accounting-based measures to construct a composite proxy for investment opportunities. We find that firms investment opportunities and the relative permanence of current earnings affect the value-relevance of those earnings. Additionally, we find that the interaction between permanent earnings and investment opportunities produces an even stronger price response to earnings.     

The customer-centered innovation map

We all know that people "hire" products and services to get a job done. Surgeons hire scalpels to dissect soft tissue. Janitors hire soap dispensers and paper towels to remove grime from their hands. To find ways to innovate, it's critical to deconstruct the job the customer is trying to get done from beginning to end, to gain a complete view of all the points at which a customer might desire more help from a product or service. A methodology called job mapping helps companies analyze the biggest drawbacks of the products and services customers currently use and discover opportunities for innovation. It involves breaking down the task the customer wants to accomplish into the eight universal steps of a job: (1) defining the objectives, (2) locating the necessary inputs, (3) preparing the physical environment, (4) confirming that everything is ready, (5) executing the task, (6) monitoring its progress, (7) making modifications as necessary, and (8) concluding the job. Job mapping differs substantively from process mapping in that the goal is to identify what customers are trying to get done at every step, not what they are doing currently. For example, when an anesthesiologist checks a monitor during a surgical procedure, the action taken is just a means to the end. Detecting a change in patient vital signs is the job the doctor is trying to get done. Within each of the discrete steps lie multiple opportunities for making the job simpler, easier, or faster. By mapping out every step of the job and locating those opportunities, companies can discover new ways to differentiate their offerings.     

Geographic distance and board monitoring: Evidence from the relocation of independent directors

In this study, we use a sample of independent directors (hereafter, IDs) in China, whose primary employers have changed during their tenure as IDs, to examine whether and how geographic distance affects the monitoring role of IDs. Based on 233 relocations of IDs due to the change of their primary employers, we find that when IDs are located farther from the firm headquarters, they attend fewer meetings and express a lower percentage of dissenting opinions. The results are robust with a battery of robustness checks. In addition, we find that the negative relationship between geographic distance and meeting attendance of IDs is mitigated where there are high-speed railways between firm headquarters and the ID or when firms have a higher litigation risk. We also find that the negative relationship is more pronounced for state-owned firms. Our tests on the effectiveness of monitoring show that firms with more distant IDs have more tunneling activities and earnings management, lower sensitivity of CEO compensation to firm performance, and lower sensitivity of investment expenditure to investment opportunities. Furthermore, we focus on the relocations that make IDs more distant from the firm headquarters and find that after the relocations, firms are more likely to acquire firms in the provinces that the IDs relocate to. We find that the market reactions of M&As in the provinces that IDs relocate to are more positive after the relocations, which suggests that distant IDs have an advisory role. Finally, we find that firms with more distant IDs have lower performance and that firms are less likely to reappoint IDs in future sessions if these IDs move farther away from the firm headquarters. Our study, based on exogenous changes in geographic distance between IDs and the firm headquarters, provides new evidence that IDs who are located farther from the firm headquarters are less effective monitors due to higher cost of information acquisition.     

Strategy as active waiting

Successful executives who cut their teeth in stable industries or in developed countries often stumble when they face more volatile markets. They falter, in part, because they assume they can gaze deep into the future and develop a long-term strategy that will confer a sustainable competitive advantage. But visibility into the future of volatile markets is sharply limited because so many different variables are in play. Factors such as technological innovation, customers' evolving needs, government policy, and changes in the capital markets interact with one another to create unexpected outcomes. Over the past six years, Donald Sull, an associate professor at London Business School, has led a research project examining some of the world's most volatile markets, from national markets like China and Brazil to industries like enterprise software, telecommunications, and airlines. One of the most striking findings from this research is the importance of taking action during comparative lulls in the storm. Huge business opportunities are relatively rare; they come along only once or twice in a decade. And, for the most part, companies can't manufacture those opportunities; changes in the external environment converge to make them happen. What managers can do is prepare for these golden opportunities by managing smart during the comparative calm of business as usual. During these periods of active waiting, leaders must probe the future and remain alert to anomalies that signal potential threats or opportunities; exercise restraint to preserve their war chests; and maintain discipline to keep the troops battle ready. When a golden opportunity or"sudden death"threat emerges, managers must have the courage to declare the main effort and concentrate resources to seize the moment.     

On Ponzi schemes in infinite horizon collateralized economies with default penalties

We show, by means of an example, that in models where default is subject to both collateral repossession and utility punishments, opportunities for doing Ponzi schemes are not always ruled out and (refined) equilibria may fail to exist. This is true even if default penalties are moderate as defined in Páscoa and Seghir (Game Econ Behav 65:270–286, 2009). In our example, asset promises and default penalties are chosen such that, if an equilibrium does exist, agents never default on their promises. At the same time collateral bundles and utility functions are such that the full repayment of debts implies that the asset price should be strictly larger than the cost of collateral requirements. This is sufficient to induce agents to run Ponzi schemes and destroy equilibrium existence.     

The Underinvestment and Overinvestment Hypotheses: an Analysis Using Panel Data

We study the relationship between firm value and investment to test the underinvestment and overinvestment hypotheses. The results obtained, using panel data methodology as the estimation method, indicate that the abovementioned relation is quadratic, which implies that there exists an optimal level of investment. As a consequence, firms that invest less than the optimal level suffer from an underinvestment problem, while those investing more than the optimum suffer from overinvestment. The quadratic relation is maintained when firms are classified depending on their investment opportunities, the optimum being in accordance with the quality of investment opportunities.     

The growth crisis--and how to escape it

At a time when companies are poised to seize the growth opportunities of a rebounding economy, many of them, whether they know it or not, face a growth crisis. Even during the boom years of the past decade, only a small fraction of companies enjoyed consistent double-digit revenue growth. And those that did often achieved it through short-term measures--such as mergers and inflated price increases--that don't provide the foundation for growth over the long term. But there is a way out of this predicament. The authors claim that companies can achieve sustained growth by leveraging their "hidden assets," a wide array of underused, intangible capabilities and advantages that most established companies already hold. To date, much of the research on intangible assets has centered on intellectual property and brand recognition. But in this article, the authors uncover a host of other assets that can help spark growth. They identify four major categories of hidden assets: customer relationships, strategic real estate, networks, and information. And they illustrate each with an example of a company that has creatively used its hidden assets to produce new sources of revenue. Executives have spent years learning to create growth using products, facilities, and working capital. But they should really focus on mobilizing their hidden assets to serve their customers' higher-order needs--in other words, create offerings that make customers' lives easier, better, or less expensive. Making that shift in mind-set isn't easy, admit the authors, but companies that do it may not only create meaningful new value for their customers but also produce double-digit revenue and earnings growth for investors.     

Large traders,hidden arbitrage,and complete markets

This paper studies hidden arbitrage opportunities in markets where large traders affect the price process, and where the market is complete (in the classical sense). The arbitrage opportunities are “hidden” because they occur on a small set of times (typically of Lebesgue measure zero). These arbitrage opportunities occur naturally in markets where a large trader supports the price of some asset or commodity, for example corporate stock repurchase plans, government interest rate or foreign currency intervention, and price support by investment banks in IPOs. We also illustrate immediate arbitrage opportunities generated by usual market activity at specific points in time, for example the issuance date of an IPO or the inclusion date of a new stock in the S&P 500 index.     

Are zombie firms more incentivized to financialize?

This paper investigates whether zombie firms demonstrate a tendency to invest in the financial sector, a practice we term financialization strategy. Unlike those in the United States, Japan, and Europe, we find that zombie firms in China are not necessarily small and that they rely heavily on government subsidies in addition to bank loans for survival. In addition, we document that zombie firms in China experience limited investment opportunities in their core businesses. This combination of readily available funding and limited investment opportunities jointly motivate the financialization of firms with zombie status. We further find that financialization is preferred by non-state-owned firms and by those located in regions with less developed markets. Finally, we suggest that a contagion effect can occur in terms of financialization in provinces that have a high percentage of zombie firms. This research sheds light on the effects of a triangular relationship among firms, government agencies, and financial institutions on both the operations of individual firms and overall market efficiency.     

How leaders create and use networks

Most people acknowledge that networking-creating a fabric of personal contacts to provide support, feedback, insight, and resources--is an essential activity for an ambitious manager. Indeed, it's a requirement even for those focused simply on doing their current jobs well. For some, this is a distasteful reality. Working through networks, they believe,means relying on "who you know" rather than "what you know"--a hypocritical, possibly unethical, way to get things done. But even people who understand that networking is a legitimate and necessary part of their jobs can be discouraged by the payoff--because they are doing it in too limited a fashion. On the basis of a close study of 30 emerging leaders, the authors outline three distinct forms of networking. Operational networking is geared toward doing one's assigned tasks more effectively. It involves cultivating stronger relationships with colleagues whose membership in the network is clear; their roles define them as stakeholders. Personal networking engages kindred spirits from outside an organization in an individual's efforts to learn and find opportunities for personal advancement. Strategic networking puts the tools of networking in the service of business goals. At this level, a manager creates the kind of network that will help uncover and capitalize on new opportunities for the company. The ability to move to this level of networking turns out to be a key test of leadership. Companies often recognize that networks are valuable, andthey create explicit programs to support them. But typically these programs facilitate only operational networking. Likewise, industry associations provide formal contexts for personal networking. The unfortunate effect is to give managers the impression that they know how to network and are doing so sufficiently. A sidebar notes the implication for companies' leadership development initiatives: that teaching strategic networking skills will serve their aspiring leaders and their business goals well.     

Gender Imbalance in the Workforce: An Examination of the Public Accounting Profession

This paper reports on a study of gender bias in the public accounting profession. The research confirms that "institutionalised" gender discrimination takes place in the profession as a result of the existence of organisationa1 structures that foster advancement through a filter built upon male lifestyles and expectations. It also finds that women's career advancement in the profession is inhibited because opportunities for promotion become available at times when female practitioners are taking leave to begin families.     

Growth Options, Beta, and the Cost of Capital

We show how to decompose a firm's beta into its beta of assets-in-place and its beta of growth opportunities. Our empirical results demonstrate that the beta of growth opportunities is greater than the beta of assets-in-place for virtually all industries over all periods of time dating back to 1977. The difference has important implications for determining the cost of capital. For example, when choosing comparables to determine a project beta one should match the growth opportunities of the project with those of the comparable firm. Assuming a 6% market equity risk premium, accounting for growth opportunities alters the project cost of capital by as much as 2% to 3%.     

Corporate financing of investment opportunities in a world of institutional cross-ownership

Institutional cross-owners, specifically institutional investors with significant stakes in multiple firms in the same industry, are becoming increasingly common in the United States. In this paper, we investigate and find that the presence of institutional cross-owners facilitates a firm's financing of its investment opportunities, consistent with institutional cross-owners reducing the adverse selection concerns of those who provide capital for the investment opportunities. We then examine the conditions under which the presence of institutional cross-owners is likely to more significantly reduce adverse selection and thereby have even more of a positive effect on the financing of investment opportunities. We document that relative to transient institutional cross-owners, dedicated institutional cross-owners facilitate more financing of investment opportunities. We also find that institutional cross-owners facilitate the financing of investment opportunities even more for firms with greater dependence on external financing, those with an opaque financial reporting environment, and those with more product market competition. Our paper offers novel insight into how a firm can benefit from the presence of institutional cross-owners.     

浙商对长春民营经济的启示

浙江,特别是温州,以其人均资源全国倒数第三,而人均GDP却多年稳居全国第一的温州模式,成为全国民营经济的一面旗帜。它们所依靠的“民资、民智、民力”而形成的民营企业群给长春的民营经济发展以很好的启示:长春的民营经济要快速发展,必须在发展环境上做文章,为民营经济创造一个大展宏图的广阔天地。     

The discipline of innovation

Some innovations spring from a flash of genius. But as Peter Drucker points out in this HBR Classic, most result from a conscious, purposeful search for opportunities. For managers seeking innovation, engaging in disciplined work is more important than having an entrepreneurial personality. Writing originally in the May-June 1985 issue, Drucker describes the major sources of opportunities for innovation. Within a company or industry, opportunities can be found in unexpected occurrences, incongruities of various kinds, process needs, or changes in an industry or market. Outside a company, opportunities arise from demographic changes, changes in perception, or new knowledge. These seven sources overlap, and the potential for innovation may well lie in more than one area at a time. Innovations based on new knowledge, of course, tend to have the greatest effect on the marketplace. But it often takes decades before the ideas are translated into actual products, processes, or services. The other sources of innovation are easier and simpler to handle, yet they still require managers to look beyond established practices. Drucker emphasizes that in seeking opportunities, innovators need to look for simple, focused solutions to real problems. The greatest praise an innovation can receive is for people to say, "This is obvious!" Grandiose ideas designed to revolutionize an industry rarely work. Innovation, like any other endeavor, takes talent, ingenuity, and knowledge. But Drucker cautions that if diligence, persistence, and commitment are lacking, companies are unlikely to succeed at the business of innovation.     

The effects of anticipated future investments on firm value: evidence from mergers and acquisitions

I examine the long-term valuation consequence of investment in mergers and acquisitions on acquiring firms through the “anticipation effect,” in which forward-looking prices embed investors’ expectations about the profitability of firms’ future acquisitions. Using a sample of firms with past acquisitions, I find that their market valuations depend on both the profitability of their past acquisitions and their current free cash flow. Among firms with positive free cash flow (when future acquisitions are likely), those with a worse history of value-destroying acquisitions experience lower market valuations. Among firms with negative free cash flow (when future acquisitions are less likely), firm value is not systematically related to acquisition history. These findings are consistent with investors forming expectations about the profitability of future acquisitions based on realized acquisition outcomes and valuing these firms based on their likelihood of making future acquisitions. They also provide support for using observed market prices as a proxy for investors’ expectations about future investment opportunities.     

The ethical mind. A conversation with psychologist Howard Gardner

Business leadership has become synonymous in the public eye with unethical behavior. Widespread scandals, massive layoffs, and inflated executive pay packages have led many to believe that corporate wrongdoing is the status quo. That's why it's more important than ever that those at the top mend relationships with customers, employees, and other stakeholders. Professor Gardner has spent many years studying the relationship between psychology and ethics at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. In this interview with HBR senior editor Bronwyn Fryer, Gardner talks about what he calls the ethical mind, which helps individuals aspire to do good work that matters to their colleagues, companies, and society in general. In an era when workers are overwhelmed by too much information and feel pressured to win at all costs, Gardner believes, it's easy to lose one's way. What's more, employees look to leaders for cues as to what's appropriate and what's not. So if you're a leader, what's the best way to stand up to ethical pressures and set a good example? First and foremost, says Gardner, you must believe that retaining an ethical compass is essential to the health of your organization. Then you must state your ethical beliefs and stick to them. You should also test yourself rigorously to make sure you're adhering to your values, take time to reflect on your beliefs, find multiple mentors who aren't afraid to speak truth to your power, and confront others' egregious behavior as soon as it arises. In the end, Gardner believes, the world hangs in the balance between right and wrong, good and bad, success and disaster. "You need to decide which side you're on:" he concludes, "and do the right thing."     

Point redemption matters: A response to Murthi <Emphasis Type="Italic">et al</Emphasis> (2011)

Murthi et al (2011) addressed a controversy about the benefits of loyalty programs within the credit-card industry. One of their findings was that rewards cardholders were less profitable than non-rewards cardholders. This paper will address two opportunities for further research based on their finding. One opportunity is the investigation of rewards and non-rewards credit-card customers in a context which allows for more associations with the firm than just credit cards. Another opportunity is the segmentation of rewards cardholders into those redeeming rewards and those who do not. The present paper investigates the profitability of credit-card customers in terms of the credit card itself (product profit) and in terms of all of a firm’s products held by the customer (relationship profit). Rewards cardholders are segmented based on their level of redemption. This study finds that cardholders who do not redeem points dilute the profitability of cardholders who do redeem their points when both segments are viewed together. Cardholders who redeem points are found to be more profitable than non-rewards cardholders in terms of both product and relationship. This study also finds that higher levels of redemption correspond with higher profitability at both the product and relationship levels.     

Eat or Be Eaten: A Theory of Mergers and Firm Size

We propose a theory of mergers that combines managerial merger motives with an industry-level regime shift that may lead to value-increasing merger opportunities. Anticipation of these merger opportunities can lead to defensive acquisitions, where managers acquire other firms to avoid losing private benefits if their firms are acquired, or "positioning" acquisitions, where firms position themselves as more attractive takeover targets to earn takeover premia. The identity of acquirers and targets and the profitability of acquisitions depend on the distribution of firm sizes within an industry, among other factors. We find empirical support for some unique predictions of our theory.     

Discovering new points of differentiation

Most profitable strategies are built on differentiation: offering customers something they value that competitors don't have. But most companies concentrate only on their products or services. In fact, a company can differentiate itself every point where it comes in contact with its customers--from the moment customers realize they need a product or service to the time when they dispose of it. The authors believe that if companies open up their thinking to their customer's entire experience with a product or service--the consumption chain--they can uncover opportunities to position their offerings in ways that neither they nor their competitors though possible. The authors show how even a mundane product such as candles can be successfully differentiated. By analyzing its customers' experiences and exploring various options, Blyth Industries, for example, has grown from a $2 million U.S. candle manufacturer into a global candle and accessory business with nearly $500 million in sales and a market value of $1.2 billion. Finding ways to differentiate one's company is a skill that can be nurtured, the authors contend. In this Manager's Tool Kit, they have designed a two-part approach that can help companies continually identify new points of differentiation and develop the ability to generate successful differentiation strategies. "Mapping the Consumption Chain" captures the customer's total experience with a product or service. "Analyzing Your Customer's Experience" shows managers how directed brainstorming about each step in the consumption chain can elicit numerous ways to differentiate any offering.