中国农业关税政策的空间性应用一般均衡模型构建及分析

对缩减中国农业关税率之后所产生的影响进行计量分析，是一个值得关注的课题。为此，本文首先构建了对多地区(或多国家)、多部门进行计量分析的空间性应用一般均衡模型(SCGE)。然后在将中国农业关税率缩减30％的假定下，对中国以及其他国家在产品价格、需求及受益水平等方面所带来的影响进行了模拟分析。     

Job Decentralization with Suburban Housing Discrimination: An Urban Equilibrium Model of Spatial Mismatch

The spatial mismatch hypothesis, with its roots in the work of Kain (1968,Quart. J. Econ.82(2), 175–197), has received much recent attention from empirical researchers. Its basic premise is that differences in job access between black and white workers have contributed to increasing racial inequality in urban labor markets. While the initial evidence was ambiguous, recent studies have established that differences in job accessibility have worsened the labor market outcomes of minority workers. This paper develops an urban equilibrium model which allows for the analysis of the impact of job decentralization and suburban housing discrimination on the welfare of workers in a city.     

循环经济一般均衡模式以及确定服务销售价格的基本方法

循环经济的发展核心是实现以销售服务代替销售产品,使生产生活资料的公有共用能得以实现,并最大限度地增加资源利用率,从而保护生存环境和空间,使得人与环境尽可能长时间地可持续发展。人和自然具有耗散结构特征的生命周期,是销售服务代替销售产品的基础。文章通过引入产品的生命周期作为变量,对循环经济的边际效用进行分析,并建立投资消费均衡模式。在所建立的循环经济的投资消费均衡模式中,科技要素代替了古典主义所定义的"资本、劳动和土地"生产三要素中的资源要素(土地等),构成了循环经济生产消费的新三要素:资本、劳动和科技。作为市场经济的循环经济,相对于自由市场经济,更偏好于社会主义市场经济。循环经济的均衡模式和边际效用函数的确定,也可应用于产品服务的定价。作为一个应用实例,将所推导的循环经济边际效用函数和均衡模式的关系,用来分析权重较大的居住服务套利或非套利的定价模式,通过设定不同的房产生命周期,得到区别巨大的房产总价值。通过分析该结果可以说明2008—2009年美国次贷危机引起金融海啸的深层原因,这是本文的一种应用解读。     

城市交通拥挤原因与疏导策略

随着城市机动车数量的急剧发展,交通拥挤已经成为目前城市交通的主要问题。本文从宏观、微观两个层面分析拥挤成因以及拥挤的不利影响,找出城市交通拥挤的症结所在。通过分析常发性交通拥挤与偶发性交通拥挤基本特性,制定相应的交通拥挤控制和疏导策略,并提出了交通拥挤治理的基本原则。     

乡级土地利用总体规划编制探讨

在我国五级土地利用规划体系中,乡(镇)土地利用规划作为做为应用性、指导性最强的规划[1],是指导各乡镇贯彻科学发展观,落实十分珍惜、合理利用土地和切实保护耕地的基本国策,深入实施全面发展战略,统筹土地资源开发、利用、整治和保护,正确处理保护耕地和保障建设的关系,促进乡镇国民经济又好又快发展的纲领性文件。乡(镇)土地利用规划水平的高低,直接关系整个规划体系的建设以及国民经济各业发展。为使乡级规划文本的编制顺利进行,保证编制的质量,突出乡镇区域特色,符合国家、省、市县的各项规章政策,特编乡级规划修编文本编制指南。     

浅谈土地利用总体规划修改

随着经济的发展,商业用地和农业用地之间的矛盾逐渐凸显,为了确保粮食安全,需要修改土地利用总体规划,为此本文通过阐述土地利用总体规划修改存在的问题,指出土地利用总体规划修改需要注意的问题,同时提出相应的政策建议,进而为修改土地利用总体规划提供参考依据。     

Efficient Congestion Tolls in the Presence of Unpriced Congestion: A Peak and Off-Peak Simulation Model

This paper develops a congestion pricing model to examine efficient congestion tolls for an urban highway facility that resembles California State Route 91, the highway that has been subject to congestion tolls since December 27, 1995. Two lanes out of six (each way) are subject to congestion tolls, and the other four lanes are not. The simulation model combines the economic theories of second-best pricing of transportation facilities and peak-load pricing, and considers both welfare-maximizing and profit-maximizing cases. The simulation results show that the second-best peak period toll is quite low and that the welfare gains from the toll are modest compared to a regime in which all lanes are subject to tolls.     

经济学中一般均衡存在性问题理论述评

本文对经济学中一般均衡理论进行了概述。文中主要介绍了Arrow—Debreu经济模型、均衡存在性定理、存在性涸题在无穷维商品空间上的扩展以及相关工作。     

北京市结构变化的可计算性一般均衡模型

本文在分析与总结结构变化的一般演进规律后，提出构建区域产业结构变化CGE模型的必要性。随后以北京市为例，描述了区域CGE模型的构造及主要特色，模拟并分析了北京市和国内其他地区结构变化的主要宏观结果，提出了模拟结果的相关政策含义。     

Chamberlinian Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: A Theoretical Framework

In this paper, a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model is developed by bringing together different strands of theoretical reasoning. These are as follows: input–output analysis, gravity modelling, the theory of intra-industry trade and the theory of general equilibrium under conditions of monopolistic competition. The innovation in this approach is the assumption that, within each sector, a large number of different brands of output are produced. Households like diversity of consumption and diversity of inputs is a productive factor for firms. The number of brands produced in each sector and region is endogenous. A certain amount of fixed costs per brand imposes an upper bound on the number of available brands. Factor markets are perfectly competitive, while monopolistic competition prevails on goods markets. The equilibrium solution of the model closely resembles models which have been applied on an ad hoc basis in regional science before, but it is well founded in modern economic theory now. In particular, trade flows obey a gravity law in equilibrium.     

Inventories, Manufacturer Returns Policies, and Equilibrium Price Dispersion under Demand Uncertainty

Returns policies can prevent a manufacturer's product from being discounted. Such discounting discourages inventory holdings, and can deny adequate retail representation to products with uncertain demand. We demonstrate that returns are not simply a substitute for resale price maintenance, but can instead be employed to support a desirable degree of price dispersion at retail. Surprisingly, optimal return policies depend only on market demand functions and marginal production costs. The manufacturer need not know the distribution of demand uncertainty for its product, but can instead rely on retailers to order appropriately. Our results generalize to oligopoly settings.     

Price-endogenized Input–Output Model: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Production Sector of the Japanese Economy

This paper considers a generalization of the open Leontief model, by endogenizing the input coefficients on the basis of the neoclassical multi-sectoral produc-tion function. The adopted production function is of the two-level CES type, which is quite effective for avoiding the multi-collinearity problem. As a result, the estimates obtained are quite stable, satisfying the quasi-concavity conditions of the production function for all the sectors. Comparative statics based on the Jacobian of the excess supply function for each commodity market reveal that, owing to the factor substitution the effect of an increase in the final demand on the level of the production is significantly smaller than that which occurs in the open Leontief model with fixed input coefficients.     

Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach

How would competitive pressure impact upon the income distribution and the poverty of household groups? We analyse the gains in efficiency and productivity due to competitive pressure, and its distributional effects using a general equilibrium input–output framework. Efficient utilization of the available resources, technical progress and free trade constitute our sources of growth. Welfare would increase under competition, but the income distribution would become more skewed. Rural household groups would stand to lose relative to the urban ones. Urban poverty would be reduced significantly more than rural. In fact, the agricultural worker would even suffer from an increase in poverty. The study shows that competitive pressure has a positive effect on efficiency, productivity and poverty, but an adverse effect on the income distribution in the Indian economy.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of VAT in India

Indian industry is under pricing pressure after the government cut tariffs in a phased manner as per the WTO agreements. In order to be competitive, the consensus opinion in government, academics and industry is the implementation of a VAT in India. The paper evaluates the welfare implications of a VAT in the static and a sequentially dynamic context after accounting for the political and administrative constraints facing the Indian government in implementing a VAT. Replacing the old indirect tax structure with a VAT is welfare worsening. The increase in final consumer prices on account of reduced tax base leads to higher price of essentials, causing welfare loss. Zero rating v/s exemption plays an important role on welfare, with lower welfare loss if essential commodities are exempt from VAT. Agriculture sector unambiguously plays a crucial role in welfare.     

Job Performance and Turnover: A Review and Integrative Multi-Route Model

Research and theory on the elusive yet important relationship between individual job performance and employee turnover is reviewed. An integrative model of the relationship is proposed which argues that performance may lead to turnover through three different routes. One, performance may influence turnover through cognitive and affective evaluations of the desire to leave the organization. Two, performance may influence turnover through actual and perceived mobility in the job market. Three, performance may lead more directly to turnover in response to performance-related shocks to the system. Additionally, important moderators of these relationships, notably visibility and reward contingency, are highlighted.     

Global Warming Policy and the Pennsylvania Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Most studies of the impacts of global warming policy have been performed at the national level. However, national averages obscure the fact that some regions may be affected much more than others. We formulated a regional computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of a carbon tax on the Pennsylvania economy. The model incorporates special features relating to labor mobility, trade and energy substitution for this purpose. Our results indicate significant negative overall impacts on the Pennsylvania economy, primarily because it is a major producer and user of fossil fuels, especially coal, and because it is highly industrialized. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters and model assumptions indicate that our results are robust.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

中国排污收费征收标准改革的一般均衡分析

2003年7月1日起中国开始施行新的排污收费标准,由过去的浓度超标收费转向总量收费和浓度超标收费相结合的排污收费方式。这是中国环境政策改革的一个重要举措。为此,本文建立了一个中国排污收费标准改革的CGE模型,并设计了三种政策情景来模拟这次改革。对西方关于环境税的一些理论观点在中国的适用性进行了验证。     

The Lowry Model Revisited: Incorporating a Multizonal Input-Output Model into an Urban Land Use Allocation Model

This paper formulates a new generation of Lowry-style models that combine a multizonal input-output model and an urban land use allocation model. Three different types of models are proposed: 1) an unconstrained model, 2) a primal of a linear programming approach that includes land supply constraints, and 3) a modified dual of the linear programming approach that allocates land based on additional conditions of economic efficiency. The modified dual formulation improves upon the limitations of Lowry models and their derivatives. First, the proposed model has sound theoretical underpinnings that incorporate the production theory of input-output models and the behavioral theory of optimization models. Second, the proposed model allocates land on the basis of economic efficiency by imposing a procedure that equalizes shadow prices. And third, the proposed model is an optimization model that fully accounts for the spatial and sectoral relationships of multiplier effects determining land use demand.