人民币汇率变动与通货膨胀的动态关系

文章试图研究通货膨胀与汇率变动两者间的关系。通过分析1998—2010年期间中国通货膨胀的动态传导机制和驱动因素,文章发现,人民币升值带来的流动性过剩所导致的通胀效应远超过升值对通胀的抑制作用。为应对通货膨胀,我国需要有针对性的对当前的货币政策体系进行变革,从过度依赖数量性政策工具向以汇率和数量性政策工具并重的政策体系过渡。     

人民币汇率变动对我国通货膨胀影响实证研究

随着经济全球一体化的不断推进,汇率与物价的关系极其重要。汇率反应一国货币的对外币值,而物价则反应一国货币的对内价值。本文选择2005.8~2010.5的数据作为研究对象来进行研究,选择通货膨胀作为被解释变量,选择人民币汇率、货币供应量、经济增长、人民币汇率波动作为解释变量,进行格兰杰因果检验,来研究人民币汇率变动对我国通货膨胀的影响。得出的结果是,货币供给量、人民币汇率都是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因。     

当前中国通货膨胀的成因和对策

当前中国通货膨胀形成的原因包括需求拉动、自然灾害、通胀预期、市场投机等短期因素和增长方式转变、经济结构调整、自然资源有限性、要素价格重估、成本推动等长期因素.本文认为适度通胀有利于当前经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变.当前宏观调控效果初步显现,短期还应继续实行适度紧缩政策,但紧缩力度需逐步降低;应参考一篮子货币,保持人民...     

流动性过剩、通货膨胀与货币政策

当前经济下滑的基本原因是人民币升值,而人民币升值的主要原因是对通货膨胀的预期和对流动性过剩的估计有偏差.当前宏观调控的主要任务是保持经济稳定增长.宏观调控政策应定位于平衡的财政政策和稳健的货币政策组合.财政应当量入为出,收支平衡,努力压减行政支出;货币应当稳定汇率,调整利息,以便引导和控制信贷规模,调整贷款结构.     

汇率变动与通货膨胀

在开放经济中汇率对国内通货膨胀有重要影响。汇率变动可以通过直接或间接渠道影响国内物价水平。首先,汇率变动通过影响进口最终消费品的本币价格直接影响以消费者价格指数衡量的通货膨胀;其次,汇率变动会影响进口原材料和中间产品的本币价格,并且通过消费者价格指数对工资设定的影响,汇率变动也会影响名义工资水平,在这两种情形下汇率变动都会影响本国产品的生产成本,从而影响通货膨胀。再次,汇率变动改变了本国产品和外国产品的相对价格,从而影响本国和外国经济主体对本国产品的需求,通过总需求渠道间接     

中国通货膨胀与通货紧缩的目标区间

针对通货膨胀与通货紫缩周期性交替的现实，本文认为客观存在通胀与通缩的目标区间，在此区间中的通胀率是良性的。据此，文章重新定义了通货膨胀与通货紧缩，估算了中国通胀与通缩的目标区间，并认为可以用此区间作为宏现货币政策的中介目标，建议采用微调作为主要的宏现调控方式。     

流动性过剩、通货膨胀与外资流入

目前我国流动性过剩已经凸现成为经济生活中的主要矛盾之一。流动性过剩加大了通货膨胀压力,提高了潜在的金融风险。流动性过剩的大背景下,我国招商引资何去何从？本文试图解释目前我国的流动性过剩乃是结构性过剩,我国大力引进外资仍然是当前经济发展的重要支撑。     

通货膨胀动态与我国货币政策走向

本文首先在理论上分析了通货膨胀在货币政策制定与实施中的地位,然后深入探讨通货膨胀的决定因素与通货膨胀惯性之间的关系,最后在简要总结我国2009年上半年的宏观经济金融形势的基础上对未来一段时期我国的通货膨胀态势与货币政策走向进行预测.     

人民币汇率变动与通货膨胀——兼论新汇制对货币政策的改善效应

本文通过构建人民币汇率与通货膨胀率的传导模型,探讨汇改前后两个时期人民币汇率与通货膨胀的动态相关性。实证研究显示,短期内人民币汇率对通货膨胀有一定的逆向冲击,这种逆向冲击的强度在汇改后表现得更强,从长期来看,两者协整且呈显著的正相关性,但短期内人民币升值带来的通货膨胀抑制效应弱于长期内人民币升值对通货膨胀的驱动效应。从这个角度来看,新汇制对我国货币政策绩效的改善效应并不明显。     

本币升值背景下货币政策的国际比较及其启示

目前人民币处于升值过程中,这种情况与20世纪80年代中后期日本等国的情况有类似之处,本文将20世纪80年代中后期日本等国在本币升值背景下采取的货币政策进行了比较,总结了他们在本币升值时货币政策的得失,并提出了可供我国制定货币政策参考的若干建议。     

人民币升值带来的财富幻觉探讨

本文从我国现有的外汇管理制度和面临的特殊发展阶段及发展背景出发,指出人民币对外升值对内贬值将是我国现阶段和未来所面临的一种重要现象。人民币升值及其升值预期将带来我国外汇储备快速积累,在结售汇制度下发生货币倍增效应,给我国带来明显的财富效应;人民币对内贬值即通货膨胀扩大了我国GDP的规模和国际排名,也给我国带来了财富效应。本文指出人民币对外升值对内贬值带来的财富效应在一定程度上是一种财富幻觉,并对这种情况下的宏观经济政策提出了对策建议。     

The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies

This paper studies the impact effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand during the 1990s. Shocks are identified by the reaction of three month market interest rates to policy announcements that were not themselves endogenous to economic news on the same day. The main result is that a 100 basis point contractionary shock will appreciate the exchange rate by 2-3 percent on impact. The association of interest rate hikes with depreciations that is sometimes observed during periods of exchange market pressure is mainly attributable to reverse causality.     

Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with staggered wage and price contracts

We study optimal monetary policy for a small open economy in a model where both domestic prices and wages are sticky due to staggered contracts. The simultaneous presence of the two forms of nominal rigidities introduces an additional trade-off between domestic inflation and the output gap. We derive a second-order approximation to the average welfare losses that can be expressed in terms of the unconditional variances of the output gap, domestic price inflation, and wage inflation. As a consequence, the optimal policy seeks to minimize a weighted average of these variances. We analyze welfare implications of several alternative simple policy rules, and find that domestic price inflation targeting generates relatively large welfare losses, whereas CPI inflation targeting performs nearly as well as the optimal rule.     

Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators

Are foreign variables important for tracking U.S. inflation expectations? This paper estimates a reduced-form model that takes both domestic and global indicators of economic slack and inflationary pressures into account. Our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated parameters over the last four decades. In particular, global indicators appear to have played a statistically significant role in shaping forecasters’ expectations until the mid-1980s. By contrast, the U.S. monetary policy stance turns out to be relevant in the 1980s and 1990s. We relate this finding to the more aggressive monetary policy conduct implemented by the Fed since the end of the Volcker experiment.     

本币升值压力下的汇率政策选择比较:中国和马来西亚

采用汇率弹性指数对人民币和马来西亚林吉特汇率弹性进行分析表明,汇率制度改革后,人民币和林吉特的汇率弹性有所增大,但是货币当局也在力图控制本币的升值趋势。采用G-R模型进行分析表明,中国和马来西亚本币升值压力是国内货币市场失衡的结果。汇率制度改革之后,两国外汇市场面临着更大的升值压力。分析还表明,如果外汇市场升值压力用汇率调整的方式吸收,外汇市场所面临的升值压力会减小,货币政策独立性会增强。     

To intervene,or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises

In case of speculative attacks, the central banks' decisions to intervene or not to intervene seem to play an important role for the economic costs of currency crises. The central bank can either abstain from intervening or start an intervention, which in turn can be successful or unsuccessful. Therefore, an adequate analysis of the costs of currency crises has to take into account three different types of currency crises: (i) an immediate depreciation without any central bank interventions, (ii) a successful defense, and (iii) an unsuccessful attempt to defend the exchange rate. We find that the decision of the central bank to intervene or to remain passive is risky. If the central bank intervenes and succeeds she can achieve the best growth performance on average. However, if the interventions are not maintained and the currency depreciates the subsequent output loss is particularly severe. Abstaining from an intervention yields a scenario with a relatively small drop in output. Giving in to a speculative attack rather than trying to fight it can thus be a suitable option for a risk-averse central bank.     

Monetary shocks,exchange rates,and the extensive margin of exports

This paper develops a two-country Dynamic General Equilibrium model to assess the relationship between the real exchange rate and the extensive margin of exports. Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices governs the relative strength of a demand channel onto the exporting decision of a firm. With incomplete pass-through, a favorable movement in the real exchange rate generates increased export participation and an expansion in the extensive margin of exports. This result is consistent with firm-level studies, and contributes to an ongoing empirical debate as to the importance of changes in export participation over the business cycle.     

The puzzling peso

In the past decade, some observers have noted an unusual aspect of the Mexican peso’s behavior: During periods when the U.S. dollar has risen (fallen) against other major currencies such as the euro, the peso has risen (fallen) against the dollar. Very few other currencies display this behavior. In this paper, we attempt to explain the unusual pattern of the peso’s correlation with the dollar by developing some general empirical models of exchange rate correlations. Based on a study of 29 currencies, we find that most of the cross-country variation in exchange rate correlations with the dollar and the euro can be explained by just a few variables. First, a country’s currency is more likely to rise against the dollar as the dollar rises against the euro, the closer it is to the United States and the farther it is from the euro area. In this result, distance likely proxies for the role of economic integration in affecting exchange rate correlations. Second, a country’s currency is more likely to exhibit this unusual pattern when its sovereign credit rating is more risky. This may reflect that currencies of riskier countries are less substitutable in investor portfolios than those of better-rated countries. All told, these factors well explain the peso’s unusual behavior, as Mexico both is very close to the United States and has a lower credit rating than most industrial economies.     

Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach

Intervening in the FX market implies a complex decision process for central banks. Monetary authorities have to decide whether to intervene or not, and if so, when and how. Since the successive steps of this procedure are likely to be highly interdependent, we adopt a nested logit approach to capture their relationships and to characterize the prominent features of the various steps of the intervention decision process. Our estimations based on Japanese data from 1991 to 2004 indicate that the Bank of Japan: (i) mainly reacted to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to fundamentals and (ii) tended to favour secrecy when its credibility was low. We also provide new insights on the so-called secrecy puzzle by modeling explicitly the risk for a secret intervention to be detected. Our results have important implications in terms of exchange rate policy, such as the emergence of a trade-off between intervention size, communication policy and secrecy. Our results tend to provide some explanation for the observed persistence of ineffective intervention policy during some sub-periods.