A quarterly forecast of the Russian economic macroindicators 2006–2008: A baseline scenario

On the one hand, this forecast of key macroindicators of the Russian economy is based on tendencies in the dynamics of these indicators; on the other, it accounts for the character of interrelations between economic variables reflected in the QUMMIR² model. The topical version of this model’s equations and identities, describing these interactions, and the names of the variables, are presented in a special detailed appendix to this article on the RIM³ (www.macroforecast.ru).     

Social and economic development of Russia: an analysis and a forecast

The article contemplates the main trends of the socio-economic development of Russia, which have prevailed in recent years. The factors which cause the slowing the country’s economic dynamics are identified and described. The tasks for the long-term development of Russia are formulated. The issues concerning the actual and desired rate of economic growth are considered. Estimates of the resources required to implement the tasks above are revealed. Measures to increase the rate and quality of economic growth in Russia are proposed.     

RIM interindustry macroeconomic model: Development of instruments under current economic conditions

The article describes an updated version of RIM interindustry macroeconomic model, which can be seen as a key element of the system of complex macrostructural forecasting developed at the Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, providing analysis and long-term forecast taking into account existing resource constraints of various kinds. The main approaches used in the development of the model, as well as the most important functional interactions in its structure, were considered.     

Coordination of sectoral strategies as an element of a comprehensive national economic forecast: The case of power engineering and railroad transport

The paper examines approaches to developing consistent sectoral strategies and programs as a key element in comprehensive long-term economic forecasting. The object of analysis is the comparability of policy documents of OAO Russian Railroads (hereinafter referred to as RZhD) and of Unified Energy System     

The evaluation of East Asian banks by considering economic and political conditions as well as country risk

This paper evaluates the performance of East Asian banks during the period of 2000–2010 by controlling country-specific conditions comprehensively. Particularly, it seeks to show that country-specific conditions are significant factors in estimating the common frontier by which the performance of all banks are compared. Thus, disregarding political conditions, regulatory environments, and country risk would lead to inaccurate efficiency scores because of the inaccurate common frontier. Following this further, an inaccurate measure of bank performance can hardly reveal bank problems before turning into a crisis. Our results confirm the significant impact of country-specific conditions on the common frontier, and hence bank efficiencies. The findings suggest that researchers, bank managers, and regulators also consider other factors other than economic conditions in their evaluations and decisions.     

Environmental hazard assessment and forecast of economic damage from industrial accidents

Based on the case study of Tuymazinsky District in the Republic of Bashkortostan introduced and tested is a methodology for assessing the environmental hazard of industrial enterprises using integral zoning diagrams. Calculations have been carried out and an algorithm for constructing histograms of environmental damage from emergency situations has been developed. Delineation of the groups of industrial enterprises on the criteria of probability of industrial accidents with environmentally hazardous implications and respective cost of damage incurred is substatiated.     

Import substitution as a strategy of economic development

The reasons for the slowdown in Russia’s economic growth in 2012–2014 are considered. Different forms of modern import-substitution practices are analyzed.     

Marx's economics as a theory of economic systems

Summary The paper attempts to analyze some system specific properties of the Marxian approach. The more conventional strands of economics have a strong praxiological or decision theoretic character, which makes them to identify the economic with a purely conceptual system. They are mainly interested in developments inside the system. Marx deals preferentially with developments of the system itself. His concept of a social system is, therefore, dialectical in the sense that it contains an evolutionary hypothesis. Furthermore, Marx does not start from isolated individuals, as does conventional theory: he rather views society as a totality of people interacting in the process of production. The historical conditions and determinants of this production process are the object of his thinking.This article is based on an inaugural lecture delivered at the University of Groningen on March 16, 1976. The author gratefully acknowledges helpful criticism of earlier versions by F. J. de Jong, S. K. Kuipers and J. Steindl. Many points of dispute remained.     

天津港怎样保持集装箱干线港优势

1.扩大基础设施建设,创造优质港口条件.目前天津港共有集装箱码头泊位11个,集装箱吞吐能力212万TEU(2002年完成240.8万TEU).这些泊位大部分是通过技术改造实现的,吞吐能力不足,泊位等级不高,陆域场地狭小,致使大量的集装箱采取零担运输到港口周边场站集拼后,再到港口装卸,增加了运输时间、费用和程序.     

Assessment and forecast of the technological risks of long-term economic growth in Russia

The article discusses the current state of production facilities and infrastructure and provides a detailed assessment of their development and depreciation. It is emphasized that it is appropriate to consider the underfunding of this area of the economy, including the subsequent high accident rate and the increase in technological risks, as a set of socioeconomic (investment) debts. An assessment of these debts is given. The trends of technological risks of the economic growth and options for an investment maneuver to address the accumulated socioeconomic debts and reduce economic risks are considered in the context of two basic scenarios of economic development for the period 2011–2030.     

Agrarian history as a sub-field of Swedish economic history

Abstract

During the first half of this century a main interest in international economic history was the focus on towns and trade. This path of research derived support from both Adam Smith and Karl Marx, as well as, for example, Karl Bücher in the late 19th century and, of course, Henri Pirenne in the early 20th century.     

Development of the RF pension system as an element of long-term economic policy

This article analyzes the role and place of the pension system in the structure of the Russian economy; the directions of its impact on major macroeconomic indicators are estimated. On the basis of a calculation system, the key requirements for the pension system in the long term are formulated.     

关于新中国经济增长与发展阶段(1949-2004)的探索

当前 ,我国经济发展正处在一个非常重要的时期。 2 0 0 3年GDP增长 9 1 % ,GDP总量达到1 1 6万多亿元 ,人均GDP突破 1 0 0 0美元。国际经验反映 :进入人均 1 0 0 0美元的经济发展阶段 ,是一个国家加快经济发展非常重要的战略起点 ,也是矛盾凸现的时期。① 在工业化、城市化加快过程中 ,资源约束的矛盾正在突出 ;随着社会经济结构调整加快 ,各种利益摩擦也在加剧 ;就业、“三农”、金融问题累积 ,等等。这表明我国步入一个新的增长阶段 ,面临重大战略调整。在这样的时刻 ,回顾中国经济历史上的增长与发展 ,有助于全面客观地认识现存的矛…     

Lodging as a migrant economic strategy in urban Zimbabwe

The 1990s were a decade of rapid urbanisation and growth of squatter settlements in African cities. Given the severe shortage of affordable housing options, a large proportion of urban dwellers choose lodging as the only economically viable, legal shelter option. Lodging is thus an essential element of the economic survival strategy of the urban poor. Based on a longitudinal study of lodgers in a medium-sized Zimbabwean city during the mid-1990s, this article explores the economic characteristics and strategies of lodging households during a time of rapid urban growth and worsening economic conditions. The article outlines the way these changes affect lodging household composition, shelter features, economic coping mechanisms and overall vulnerability. It concludes with a brief examination of the present urban situation in Zimbabwe.     

The elasticity of substitution as a proxy measure of economic integration

This study examines how the accession of Greece to the European Union affected the Greek economy. Transcendental production functions of agriculture, industry, and service sectors of Greece, Germany, and France were estimated and tested for structural stability. Based on two estimated parameters of sectoral production functions and the corresponding data on capital-to-labor ratios, sectoral elasticities of substitution were constructed as vectors of values, varying with time. It was found that the elasticities of the traded sectors, industry, and manufacturing converged. The elasticities of substitution of the nontraded sector service and the traded, but protected, sector of agriculture diverged.     

Perceptions of economic and financial conditions of households in 2000

'The economy grew by 3,0 per cent in 2000. This was the fastest growth since 1996, buoyed by a strong recovery in household consumption spending and an increase in exports of over 7 per cent in real terms' (Trevor Manuel, Minister of Finance, Budget speech, 21 February 2001). 'Growth won't solve our problems. The faster the economy grows, the faster will be the creation of jobs for the highly skilled. So there will be more, not fewer, problems with income disparity' (Iraj Abedian, Standard Bank Group Economist, cited in Financial Mail , 2001a). The aim of this article is to examine the extent to which economic growth, experienced in 2000, improved the financial and economic conditions of South African households, by analysing a national representative survey of 2 700 adult South Africans conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council in September 2000. The survey results were analysed by disaggregating data by race, gender, area type, province and Living Standard Measure (LSM). The theme emerging from this article is that although the majority of households were negatively affected financially and economically, proportionally more Africans, women, rural residents and poor households were hardest hit. Although South Africa achieved a 3 per cent economic growth rate in 2000, there is limited evidence to suggest that this growth trickled down to the majority of households.