Developing and Implementing a Selection Model for Bedding Chain Retail Store Franchisee Using Delphi and Fuzzy AHP

This work presents a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) model that adopts several important criteria. A questionnaire based on selection criteria identified from pertinent literature and interviews with experts is designed using the modified Delphi Technique and then sent to experts and decision makers. Major selection criteria are then analyzed and ranked using Fuzzy AHP. The proposed selection model not only enables a franchiser to select franchisees more objectively, but also be apply to other brand bedding company chain stores, thus enhancing commercial operations.     

A fuzzy AHP approach to construct international hotel spa atmosphere evaluation model

Governments in all over the world put great efforts on promoting domestic leisure and tourist activities, which leads to the enhancement of market potential and opportunities. Among all hospitality businesses such as restaurants, clubs, recreational villa, spa and beauty salon, international hotels is generating most percentage of profit in this sector. International hotels not only provide basic equipment and intimate service, but also emphasize on extreme quality of atmosphere sensation for customers. This study utilizes a two-step method with Delphi in the first and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (FAHP) in the second phase. The first phase is to collect information and knowledge to construct an AHP hierarchy to evaluate hotel atmosphere. The second phase incorporates a FAHP method to integrate experts’ knowledge and calculate priorities of criteria. This research provides insights of international hotel atmosphere evaluation and directions for future development of hotel atmospheres for decision makers.     

The constructing model of culinary creativity: an approach of mixed methods

This study explores the origin of culinary creativity and trainability in culinary education from the perspective of industry and academic chefs in Chinese culture in Taiwan. This study was conducted by mixed methods in 3 stages: first, face-to-face interviews were conducted to gather rich data of culinary creativity development to develop the second stage of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); second, this study applied the AHP method to evaluate and prioritize culinary creativity components; and third, we employed the Modified Delphi method to reach a consensus of defining culinary creativity. The results show that the constructing model of culinary creativity is based on creativity in general by adding specific principle and influenced by education and training. The AHP result shows that the chefs’ perspectives in evaluating and prioritizing culinary creativity components. Lastly, the major consensuses from the modified Delphi method is that culinary creativity can fit into creativity in general with certain conditions. On trainability, culinary creativity could be trained and educated to improve and advance the quality and quantity of culinary creativity.     

Popularising Delphi method

The article reports on a methodical part of a combined substantive and methodical investigation experimenting with a new type of Policy Delphi method. The common problem defined for both parts was the question whether Delphi method could be transformed in an instrument of controlling technological change by employees. The question was answered positively by the participating (bank) employees, all union members engaged with an automatisation project, themselves. Self rating scales, an evaluation questionnaire and numerous data collected about the research process showed that the most relevant social categories of participants managed to serve as “experts” according to the high levels of cognition, effort, involvement and self-confidence required in a Delphi research project. Participants with low job level, women and non-trained union members joined in very well. The special steps required to broaden a successful participation of all categories, particular methods and techniques of information transmitting questioning and reporting, did not violate the quality of scientifically valid information gathering. So the result was a practical and scientific instrument.     

A comparative site evaluation study for relocating Japanese government agencies out of Tokyo

As a national project of Japan, plans for the relocation of several government agencies out of Tokyo have been ongoing. This paper is concerned with the problem of site selection for this project. The National Land Agency, the agency responsible for this project, has declared that the process of site selection should be rational, open to the public and easily understandable. In an effort to meet these requirements, we propose a consensus-making method for reaching a group decision, based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Assurance Region model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). Several strategic uses of these methodologies, e.g., Delphi procedures, are also discussed. Based on these analyses, the “Wise Men” Committee for deciding the best site has chosen two from among ten contenders, one from the North-East and the other from the Central part of Japan, as candidates for the best relocation site. We could not discriminate between the two with respect to the multiple criteria chosen for evaluating sites. The Committee recommended the two sites to the Prime Minister at the end of December 1999. The Prime Minister reported this conclusion to the Diet. This topic is currently the focus of political discussions in the Diet. In this report, the authors summarize the decision-making processes that the Wise Men Committee followed, putting emphasis on the methodological aspects.     

主客观赋权法在网络教学评价中的应用

随着计算机技术的发展,网络教学已成为未来教育发展的重要方向之一,而网络教学评价是网络教学发展的必要过程。目前网络教学评估方法中,客观评价方法以客观数据为基础,主观性不强,而主观评价方法以主观赋权为基础,完全依靠专家主观意见为基础,受主观因素影响较大。为此,提出了以层次分析法和熵权法为基础的主客观赋权法,并在某大学网络教学评价中进行了具体应用。基于主客观赋权法的网络教学评价模型可以对网络教学中的师生做出客观合理的综合评价。     

A gramscian perspective on field dynamics. The case of the privatization of Italian steel industry

Institutional fields are not static, they undergo times of fragmentation and times of settlement. Neo-institutional research has long explained the settlement of fields as either the effect of political manoeuvring of actors, or of discursive activity influencing cultural codes, narratives and symbols. But can these processes really be considered in isolation? In this paper, we propose to adopt a comprehensive view on fields’ dynamics, one that embraces the interaction of political and discursive manoeuvring to explain how fragmented fields manage to settle. To do so, we build on the Gramscian concept of hegemonic practices as discursive and political processes that integrate cultural equivalence among actors with political alliances based on aligned interests. Hegemonic practices align actors in a new historical bloc (a new settlement). Through this lens, we interpret the case of the Italian State steel privatization (1984–1995) and propose a process model explaining what yields fields’ dynamics from fragmentation to settlement. The model highlights the action of diffused agency in field dynamics, thus overcoming the obsolete challenger/incumbent view, and the need of becoming a historical bloc for alliances to stabilize a field.     

专家意见的模糊集成方法

德尔菲法是评价工作中常用的方法,其中核心的问题是把不同专家的意见集成为一个综合的评价结果。不同的专家由于其对评价对象认知等方面的差异可能会给出不同的判断,这些判断值的差异有时可能非常明显,集成方法的科学性,对专家意见集成结果的可靠性具有很大影响。本文在分析现有集成方法不足的基础上,提出了对现有方法改进的新方法。数例分析表明,这样的改进对专家意见集成结果有明显的影响。     

The effects of feeding back experts’ own initial ratings in Delphi studies: A randomized trial

This study examined the effects of feeding back experts’ initial ratings on three Delphi outcome measures: (1) the percentage of items on which experts changed their opinion; (2) the degree to which experts changed their ratings towards the group response; and (3) the increase in the level of agreement among experts. Additionally, two conformity indices were developed. Within a real-world Delphi study, experts were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: either their initial ratings were included in feedback (IN) or excluded from feedback (EX). Results showed that experts in the EX condition changed their opinion relatively more often than experts in the IN condition. Results also suggested that experts in the EX condition changed their ratings to a greater degree towards the group response than experts in the IN condition. No difference between conditions was found regarding the increase in the level of agreement.     

基于模糊综合评价的民航空管设备保障能力评估

针对民航空管设备综合保障能力评价指标的相对性和模糊性,现有评价方法以定性为主,不易量化这一矛盾,运用专家函询法和层次分析法,分析了影响系统保障能力的关键要素,在此基础上,构建了评价指标体系,运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,运用模糊综合评价法建立了评估模型。通过对某机场空管设备保障能力的评估,给出了模糊评价方法的具体计算步骤,进行了实例验证。     

基于AHP的客户价值评价体系及市场细分方法研究

从客户价值和市场细分的关系入手,总结了目前流行的客户分类和市场细分方法,分析了现有方法的不足,并设计了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)的客户价值评价体系,然后以此为据提出了一种新的市场细分的方法。     

AHP与Delphi法相结合确定供应商评价指标权重

讨论分析了层次分析法(AHP)的优点和不足,认为德尔非法(Delphi)与层次分析法相结合,能够较好地解决其存在的不足。     

Political Culture, Economic Structure and Policy: The Laffont-Tirole Model Extended to Modern Japan

This paper deals with two issues. By linking culture and political systems, we develop alternatives to the "Developmental State" approach and propose, among other types, the "Bureaucratic State" for explaining the case of Japan. We extend the Laffont-Tirole (L-T) model of regulatory capture and propose a "bureaucratic capture" model. Variations of capture are shown to apply, given particular cultural predispositions. The case of atomic energy in Japan and the United States is then studied to assess the predictive efficacy of the extended L-T model. We conclude that cultural predispositions and the corresponding state types affect the degree to which capture takes place.     

Opportunities and Challenges in Engaging Citizens in the Co-Production of Infrastructure-Based Public Services in Australia

Research and practice have observed a shift towards service-oriented approaches that depend on input from citizens as co-producers of services. Yet in the delivery of public infrastructure the focus is still on managing assets rather than services. Using a Policy Delphi approach, we found that although experts advocate service-centric approaches guidelines and policies lack a service-centric perspective. Findings revealed a range of impediments to effective stakeholder involvement. The paper contributes to co-production and new public governance literature and offers directions for public infrastructure decision-makers to support and reconnect disengaged government–citizen relations, and determine ways of understanding optimal service outcomes.     

基于属性约简与AHP法的卷烟消费市场综合评价研究

本文运用模型对贵州省卷烟消费市场进行综合评价研究。首先运用粗糙集属性约简算法进行初始指标筛选,继而运用层次分析法构建评价指标体系,获取各指标权重并计算综合评价值,得出贵州省卷烟消费市场的地区差异划分。该应用实例表明两种方法相结合将提高综合评价的准确性。     

层次分析法在配送中心选址中的研究与应用

应用层次分析法对配送中心选址问题进行研究。选择主要应考虑因素,建立多要素的层次结构模型,构建各层次判断矩阵,经过三个层次的一致性检验确定判断矩阵的一致性可接受,计算出各因素重要程度的权数,得出影响配送中心选址的最重要的几项因素。结合范例,进一步说明了操作方法。提供了较优化的、可参考性较高的决策方案。结果表明,此方法将定性信息定量化,将各要素层次化、明朗化,具有较高的应用价值。     

平衡计分法在烟草流通企业中的应用

用传统的财务指标来衡量烟草流通企业的经营业绩存在某些缺陷,文章介绍了当今国外一种新的企业绩效评价方法———平衡计分法,并用该方法建立了适宜我国烟草流通企业的绩效评价体系,进而运用德尔菲法、层次分析法确定指标的权重,力求以最新理论指导实践,促进烟草流通企业的快速发展。     

基于SWOT模型的安徽省中小企业自主创新战略选择

首先浅谈SWOT分析存在的问题,继而引出建立定性与定量相结合的SWOT模型的必要性,其次对安徽中小企业自主创新进行了SWOT分析,文章的最后将层次分析法(AHP)和德尔菲法融入安徽中小企业自主创新SWOT分析中,建立了定性与定量相结合的SWOT分析模型,得出结论并提出建议。     

Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations

ARCH and GARCH models are widely used to model financial market volatilities in risk management applications. Considering a GARCH model with heavy-tailed innovations, we characterize the limiting distribution of an estimator of the conditional value-at-risk (VaR), which corresponds to the extremal quantile of the conditional distribution of the GARCH process. We propose two methods, the normal approximation method and the data tilting method, for constructing confidence intervals for the conditional VaR estimator and assess their accuracies by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to an energy market data set.     

The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study

Experts were used as Delphi panellists and asked to present forecasts on financial market variables in a controlled experiment. We found that the respondents with the least accurate or least conventional views were particularly likely to modify their answers. Most of these modifications were in the right direction but too small, probably because of belief-perseverance bias. This paper also presents two post-survey adjustment methods for Delphi method based forecasts. First, we present a potential method to correct for the belief perseverance bias. The results seem promising. Secondly, we test a conditional forecasting process, which unexpectedly proves unsuccessful.