Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

Information Collection Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Paradigm

In an experts-assisted decision making paradigm, the information collection design becomes a strategic variable under a weak assumption that the final decision is dependent on the design used to collect information as well. As a result, the same information of the experts and the decision maker about the problem can potentially produce different final decisions for different information collection designs. The implication is that a decision maker can strategically select a design which serves his/her objective. This paper uses a Bayesian estimation methodology for combining experts' information with the decision maker's prior. An information collection process is designed by setting constraints on this model. Several designs are developed here using such controlled factors as a one-stage versus a two-stage decision process, experts' rank ordering, and group versus individual lobbying/consultation. An example is provided to illustrate the applicability of the concept. It is shown that the information produced in the process of producing a decision can also give insights into the impacts of the decision maker and the experts on the decision.     

Challenging Group Support Systems Research: The Case for Strategic Decision Making

Strategic decision making (SDM) often occurs in groups that can benefit from the use of group support systems (GSS). However, no comprehensive review of this logical intersection has been made. We explore this intersection by viewing GSS research through the lens of SDM. First, SDM is broadly characterized and a model of GSS-mediated SDM is produced. Second, we review empirical GSS research linking these findings to the characteristics of SDM. We conclude that GSS research has not produced sufficient knowledge about group history, heterogeneity, member experience, task type, time pressure, technology or tool effects, and decision consensus for a favorable evaluation of SDM in GSS groups. SDM in GSS groups challenges researchers to study the effects of group processes such as those just mentioned in a context that involves ongoing and established groups, political activity, and a multiplicity of tasks.     

Applying Multiattribute-Based Group Decision Making Techniques in Complex Equipment Selection Tasks

A practicing industrial engineer, even an experienced decision maker, needs help in the sense that there is a necessity to use more logical or analytical decision support tools, especially when dealing with control and instrumentation projects which are often worth millions of dollars. In this article we propose an algorithm which can support the process of group decision making relating to industrial automation, especially involving the selection of control and instrumentation equipment. The aim of this article is to look only at the algorithm's application and how it is applied. To this end, two test cases are used as examples: (1) selecting a local area network for installation in an academic environment; and (2) selecting an integrated control system for a real-world pulp and paper mill. Obtained results show that the algorithm leads to a satisfactory solution. A software form of the algorithm is being programmed for use as a decision support tool.     

一种基于多人决策的供应链协同决策模型

为解决供应链协同决策的有效性问题,本文分析供应链协同决策与群体决策的区别,采用构建决策流程和决策模型、基于集对理论的共识度评价等方法,建立基于模糊多目标多人决策的供应链协同决策建模,并通过算例验证模型的合理性和有效性。     

Recurrent Marketing Decisions: Decision Complexity,Decision Focus,and Firm Performance

In this paper we examine the nature of the decision-making process for recurrent marketing decisions and its effects on firm performance. A conceptual model of recurrent decision-making in a competitive environment is developed and used as a framework for analyzing 96 tactical decisions made by 35 management groups in the last three periods of a management simulation. The decisions were based entirely on a set of decision rules developed by the management groups. The decision rules were coded for whether they were internally or externally focused and how complex their decision process was. These two factors were then used to predict firm performance. There are a number of important results. The greater the uncertainty in the link between a decision variable and its outcome, i) the more likely managers are to prespecify the value of the decision variable rather than construct a decision rule, ii) the less complex the decision rules that are constructed, and iii) the greater the proportion of internally-focused decision rules. In addition, the focus of a decision rule, but not the complexity of the process—independent of the focus—is positively related to performance with firms that focus on both internal and external factors doing best.     

金融发展与企业家创业决策

分析金融机构监督成本与企业家创业之间的联系。在各企业家具备同样的融资能力的情况下,由于全融机构的监督成本不同,将出现不同的决策。在高监督成本下,只有一部分潜在企业家选择创业,全融机构为这些企业家提供较少的融资;在低监督成本下,将有更多的潜在企业家选择创业,并能获得较多的融资。     

Simple Decision Aids and Consumer Decision Making

To help consumers deal with increasing amounts of information, many online retailers offer simple decision aids, such as the ability to sort on a particular attribute or eliminate undesired alternatives. The authors propose that consumers use simple decision aids as substitutes for cognitive effort, potentially with adverse consequences for decision making. An experimental study shows that providing unrestricted sorting increases decision quality only when choice conflict is low; beyond a certain point, greater use of the decision aid is associated with declines in decision quality. A second study shows that that allowing consumers to sort alternatives only one time enhances decision quality and, when choice conflict is high, reduces decision effort. A third study shows that providing elimination as well as sorting tools helps mitigate the negative effects of simple decision aids. Although the availability of sorting alone hurts decision quality when choice conflict is high, decision quality under choice conflict is improved when both sorting and elimination tools are provided. Implications for retail practice are discussed.     

Decision Strategy and Structure in Households: A “Groups” Perspective

From a practical perspective, (arguably) most consumer decisions are not made in isolation of the households in which consumers are inserted, yet we commonly treat them econometrically as if they were. The purpose of this workshop was to take some initial steps in defining needed research in household decision making that structurally accounts for goal sharing, utility interdependence, taste heterogeneity, choice set formation, power structures, group size and composition, and so forth. We also considered conditions under which aggregation of tastes, utility and choices might occur and make sense from both behavioral and modeling perspectives.     

Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets

The increased metabolism of business in the modern world has served to heighten both the frequency and the difficulty of organizational decision making. Practitioners and academics are constantly looking for decision-making mechanisms that can be used to address these challenges. One recently emerged mechanism is prediction markets: a group decision-making tool that uses a market mechanism to rapidly aggregate information held by large, diverse groups of participants. Prediction markets have a number of benefits and have been demonstrably successful in a number of contexts; however, it is important to recognize that they are suited to some types of decisions and contexts but not to others. This article examines the benefits of prediction markets and develops a framework that can be used to identify in which situations prediction markets can be profitably deployed within organizations. It also provides a roadmap for practitioners to use to guide their own organizational deployment of prediction markets.     

基于商业伦理观的商誉成本计量与决策分析

企业在商业活动中,以道德的行为来影响商誉价值,而商誉价值的提升,是需要付出一定代价的。商誉成本是维持或提高企业商誉价值所付出的代价或费用,并是商业伦理决策过程中或商誉决策时所必须考虑的一个重要因素。基于商业伦理观的商誉成本的正确计量及决策分析是企业在战略的角度提升商誉价值的关键所在。     

Personal Values’ Influence on the Ethical Dimension of Decision Making

Personal values have long been associated with individual decision behavior. The role played by personal values in decision making within an organization is less clear. Past research has found that managers tend to respond to ethical dilemmas situationally. This study examines the relationship between personal values and the ethical dimension of decision making using Partial Least Squares (PLS) analysis. The study examines personal values as they relate to five types of ethical dilemmas. We found a significant positive contribution of altruistic values to ethical decision making and a significant negative contribution of self-enhancement values to ethical decision making. Dr. David J. Fritzsche is a retired Professor of Management and Organization at The Pennsylvania State University, Great Valley. Among the numerous journals in which he published are Journal of Business Ethics, Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Macromarketing, and Simulation & Games. He is the co-author of the Business Policy Game: A Strategic Management Simulation. He authoured the book Business Ethics: A Global and Managerial Perspective (McGraw-Hill, 1997). Dr. Effy Oz is a Professor of Management Science and Information Systems at The Pennsylvania State University, Great Valley, where he teaches courses on IT management, ethical issues in IT, and business-stakeholder relations. He has authored several textbooks including five editions of Management Information Systems (Course Technology Inc., 1998–2006), Foundations of E-Commerce (Prentice-Hall, 2002) and, Ethics for the Information Age (McGraw-Hill, 1994), and a practitioner’s book (The Manager’s Bible, Ivy League Publishing, 1998). He has also published research articles in academic and professional journals, among which are MIS Quarterly, Communications of the ACM, Information & Management, Decisions Sciences, OMEGA, Journal of Business Ethics, and Journal of Computer Information Systems. Dr. Oz is a member of the editorial boards of Encyclopaedia of Information Systems, Information & Management, and Journal of Global Information Technology Management. He is a frequent speaker at IT conferences, has conducted research on a number of IT topics, and has been quoted in numerous media including Computerworld, MSNBC, and the Los Angeles Times. He was awarded the 1997 Notable Contribution to the Information Systems Literature Award by the Information Systems Section of the American Accounting Association, the 1999-2000 Distinguished Faculty Research Award at Penn State Great Valley, and Best Paper Award at the Annual Global Information Technology Conference of 2004.     

基于可能度的多混合属性决策方法

针对权重信息已知且属性值为混合型的多属性决策,对用模糊语言和实数表示的属性进行了区间化处理,从而把多混合属性决策转化为属性值为区间数的多属性决策。然后基于新定义的可能度计算公式,给出多混合属性决策的可能度法,通过民航实例说明方法的可行性和有效性。     

多元化战略管理:决策程序及其理论依据

通过对多元化战略的理论回顾,总结多元化战略管理研究的理论流派,多元化战略管理理论对中国企业进行多元化决策的指导意义,并创造性地提出了多元化战略管理决策程序及其理论依据,试图初步建立起多元化理论与企业实践操作间联系的纽带。     

论关系营销中的道德决策

本文在分析亨特和维特尔营销道德理论模型，探讨其在关系营销应用中出现的缺陷的基础上，试图构建一个关系营销中的道德决策模型作为补充，并结合现实环境对企业营销道德决策过程进行了分析。     

Cognition, Persuasion and Decision Making in Older Consumers

Older adults constitute a rapidly growing demographic segment, but relatively little is known about them within consumer contexts: how they process information, respond to persuasive messages, and make decisions. We discuss extant findings from consumer behavior and related disciplines (e.g., cognitive psychology, neuroscience, social psychology, gerontology) as they pertain to the effects of aging on consumer memory, persuasion and decision The first two authors co-chaired the workshop at the Choice Symposium and made major and equal contributions to this article. The remaining authors were participants in the workshop. They also contributed to this article and are listed in alphabetical order. We wish to thank the editor and Cathy Cole for their helpful comments on the paper. The article, including a more complete list of references, was shortened to meet the page-length constraints of the special issue. The longer version is available upon request from the senior authors.     

企业新进员工培训决策的博弈分析

在企业新进员工的培训决策中,双方行动策略的结果直接影响着双方期望收益的大小,在这种情况下,企业新进员工培训决策的博弈分析就显得很有必要。通过对企业和新进员工之间在三个阶段的博弈分析,只有当企业选择培训,而新进员工在受训后能力见长而选择留任原企业时,企业和受训后的新进员工的期望收益同时达到最大。新进员工在经过系统的培训后其市场价值相对过去已得到大幅度提升,自然希望得到比接受培训前的更多的收益。企业可以采取增加新进员工受训后的期望收益,增加新进员工受训后的离职成本,留住受训后的新进员工。     

资本结构优化定量决策方法综述

资本结构优化,需要解决优化的目标,何为最优资本结构,以及如何达到最优资本结构等问题,其中计算最优债务权益比是决策的关键内容。按照综合资本成本最低、股东财富最大化、企业价值最大化和多目标综合考虑等不同标准,对现有最优资本结构定量决策方法进行分类和评述,可以为资本结构优化决策提供依据。     

Ethical Decision Making and the Employed Lawyer

This article addresses one of the more disturbing questions raised by the major financial failures of the recent past; namely, how it could be that professionals, highly trained both in ethics and technical disciplines, should apparently collude with management in corporate misbehaviour. The article builds on evidence suggesting that professionals in employment contexts find ways of adapting in order to minimise perceived or actual conflict between their professional and organizational obligations and that this, in turn, may affect the way in which they exercise professional judgment. It uses identity theory to propose that professionals may adopt modified identities when employed and that these identities may be expressed, in part, in the way in which they resolve ethical dilemmas. The article reports on the results of a qualitative study in which corporate counsel showed evidence of adopting these identities. The findings suggest that this line of research offers insight into a far more complex world of employed professionals than that traditionally hypothesised and that the popular approach of regulators and others to monitoring corporate governance by appointing professionals as gate-keepers within the organization is perhaps problematic.