Aristotle vs. Plato: The classical origins of capitalist & socialist political economies*

Competing definitions of justice in Plato's Republic and Aristotle's Politics indicate the existence of two distinct economic systems with different priorities. The three-class society of the Platonic economy (guardians, auxiliaries, producers) gives rise to guardians who by virtue are expected to enforce output targets on producers directly or through auxiliaries. The three-class society of the Aristotelian economy (rich, middle, poor) facilitates the emergence of different ruling coalitions and compensates the efficiency losses of central planning with political gains derived from representative governance. In the Aristotelian economy, the middle class is better off than in the Platonic economy (auxiliaries), because a just society (polity) is achieved under its coalition with the rich. I argue that the equilibrium solutions of the Platonic and Aristotelian economic systems provide analytical insights on the origins of capitalist and socialist political economies.     

Population, consumption and resources: ethical issues.

This article offers several models that test concepts of optimum population and consumption: classical or utilitarian models, contractual models, and generation-relative ethical models. This article is based on a lecture presented in August 1995, at a conference organized by the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences. It is posited that classical utilitarianism casts the optimum population and consumption problem as a Genesis Problem. The authors argue that the Genesis problem is the wrong problem to study because there are no actual people. The Genesis problem asks how many people there ought to be ideally at what living standards. The unborn are not a class of people, just as mud on a river bank is not a mud hut. Actual persons and potential persons are categorically different. Actual persons have a claim that potential persons do not have. An overall ethical ordering over alternatives can only be conceived for each generation of actual people. The ethical point of view inevitably changes over time. For example, a generation in the first period consumes what they are given to consume by the older generation. In the second period, the younger generation is now the older generation who decide how many children to have and how to share nonstorable, all purpose consumption goods among themselves and future generations. Procreation is a means of making one's values durable. Human development is unfair. Those who live later benefit from the labor of their predecessors without paying the same price. Procreation and ecological preservation are a matter of ethics.     

Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve

The canonical new Keynesian Phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis. However, in the basic new Keynesian model, there is no unemployment, all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin, and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers’ marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption. In this paper, we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new Keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics. We show how a traditional Phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers. We estimate on US data the Phillips curve generated by the model. While we can reject the baseline new Keynesian Phillips curve in favor of the search-frictions specification, we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms’ marginal costs.     

Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian evidence

The purpose of this paper is to investigate some issues of wage setting in order to assess if nominal inertia and wage flexibility characterise the Italian supply side, using multivariate cointegration models. Our estimates indicate that an explicit distinction between stationary and non-stationary variables and a joint analysis of long-run and short-run structure is crucial for achieving clearer results. To this end, we use quarterly time series data for industry sector 1976:1–1993:4. Interesting results have been found concerning the empirical evidence of a long-run wage curve and the existence of a Phillips curve, through adopting alternative order reduction of the I(2) wage and price variables. Moreover, some insights on regional (North-South) unemployment effects are pointed out and discussed.     

Technology-driven forecasts, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy-making

The relationship between unemployment and the inflation rate is nonlinear and negative within the shorter-run timespan of business cycles, but positive in the longer run, the two-generation period in which techno-economic systems advance from innovation to market saturation. Monetary policymaking in the United States utilizes forecasts based upon the shorter term relationship, but these forecasts may be confounded by the countervailing long-wave relationship. This study presents a model that includes both the short- and long-term relationships and shows how inclusion of long-wave considerations changes preferred policy choices.     

Nonlinear Phillips curve,NAIRU and monetary policy rules

The US Phillips curve is modeled with a logistic smooth transition autoregression specification that allows various nonlinear shapes. Using this, the paper derives model-consistent estimates of the NAIRU. The NAIRU is defined as the level of unemployment rate that would correspond to a forecast of no inflation changes over the policy horizon. This paper also investigates the implications of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve for deriving optimal monetary policy rules. The optimal policy rule for interest rates and implied sacrifice ratios are found to be nonlinear as well.      

Output,Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Explicit modelling of factor markets clarifies two fundamental aspects of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). First, we clarify the relationship between output and marginal cost. Second, for the NKPC in inflation–output space, we identify the key stochastic influences on inflation without recourse to ad hoc cost or excess demand shocks. The econometric implementation of this clarified NKPC, which evolves strictly according news on the stream of future marginal costs, allows us jointly to derive inflation as a forecast of future variables. Our approach clarifies the empirical successes and failures of the NKPC and allows us to provide new aggregate evidence on the degree of price rigidity in the UK economy.     

Real wages,real interest rates,and the Phillips curve

This article argues that any analysis of a Phillips curve should include the real interest rate in addition to inflation and real wages as any changes in the interest rate changes the labour–capital input mix in the production process leading to a change in the level of employment in the economy. To justify this argument a Phillips curve model is developed, which includes the real interest rate in addition to inflation and real wages. After the diagnosis of the time series properties of the data, an error correction model is developed and estimated using a set of US annual data from 1948 to 1996. The estimated parameters of the model do suggest that one should really take into consideration of the real interest rate while analysing the Phillips curve. A non-nested test (F-test) also suggests that the Phillips curve model with real interest rate as an additional variable performs better than the conventional method that does not include the real interest rate.     

Inventories,inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

We introduce inventories into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and study the implications for inflation dynamics. Inventory holdings are motivated as a means to generate sales for demand-constrained firms. We derive various representations of the New Keynesian Phillips curve with inventories and show that one of these specifications is observationally equivalent to the standard model with respect to the behavior of inflation when the model's cross-equation restrictions are imposed. However, the driving variable in the New Keynesian Phillips curve – real marginal cost – is unobservable and has to be proxied by, for instance, real unit labor cost. An alternative approach is to impute marginal cost by using the model's optimality conditions. We show that the stock–sales ratio is linked to marginal cost. We also estimate these various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using GMM. We find that the predictive power of the inventory-specification at best approaches that of the standard model, but does not improve upon it.     

Mr. Market's Mind: Finance's Hard Problem

The market as a mind is the implicit premise in any discussion on whether the market is rational or not. Still, its implications, in terms of ontology and epistemology, are hardly understood. In particular, this paper defines the market's version of the mind-body problem and labels it as finance's “hard” problem. Its denial by modern finance causes this dominant paradigm to fail in dealing with reality in general and to produce incomplete investment knowledge in particular. Finally, as part of facing up to this problem, this paper offers a glimpse at a practical approach which may enrich investment research.     

The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification

The wrong or insignificant sign of the forcing variable in the new Keynesian Phillips curve estimations may be a result of the endogeneity of the labour share and misspecification of real marginal cost in the baseline model. We address the misspecification of real marginal cost by formulating a broad measure that features the labour share, output gap and supply shock variables. The endogeneity of the labour share is addressed by using an appropriate lag of the labour share in the Phillips curve. Reduced-form evidence from five developed and five emerging market economies support the empirical validity of the NKPC.     

The Phillips curve,parameter instability and the Lucas critique

Empirical estimation of Phillips curve relationships typically indicates the presence of parameter instability. This is argued to be due to the fact that the parameters of these equations are reduced form rather than structural parameters. Estimation of a Phillips curve model by methods which allow for time-varying parameters permits investigation of the nature and timing of the structural breaks which generate instability. This paper estimates such a model by the Kalman filter using quarterly data over the period 1972.4 to 1993.3. We find evidence of a gradual decline in the private sector's assessment of the steady-state inflation rate during the 1980s, but little evidence of the sort of dramatic regime shift predicted by some of the more extreme rational expectations models.     

Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent is assumed to behave as an econometrician, employing a time series model for inflation that allows for both permanent and temporary shocks. The near-unity coefficient on expected inflation in the Phillips curve causes the agent's perception of a unit root in inflation to become close to self-fulfilling. In a “consistent expectations equilibrium,” the value of the Kalman gain parameter in the agent's forecast rule is pinned down using the observed autocorrelation of inflation changes. The forecast errors observed by the agent are close to white noise, making it difficult for the agent to detect a misspecification of the forecast rule. I show that this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying persistence and volatility that is broadly similar to that observed in long-run U.S. data. Model-based values for expected inflation track well with movements in survey-based measures of U.S. expected inflation. In numerical simulations, the model can generate pronounced low-frequency swings in the level of inflation that are driven solely by expectational feedback, not by changes in monetary policy.     

Excess demand for labor, unemployment, and theories of the Phillips curve

This article has two purposes. First, to examine the assumption that it is possible to map uniquely between unemployment and excess demand for labor; this assumption plays a key role in the theory of the Phillips curve. We show that as both unemployment and excess demand for labor are endogenous and simultaneously determined, in general it is not possible to obtain a unique mapping between unemployment and excess demand for labor and that the Lipsey and Barro and Grossman derivations of the Phillips curve are invalid. Secondly, the article recommends that wage, employment, and unemployment behavior be modelled using short-run supply and demand curves, that is, in a Marshall-Hicks temporary equilibrium framework.