经济一体化、公司所得税竞争与FDI流动研究——以新老欧盟成员国的税收竞争为例

本文在Ottaviano（2005）的税收竞争模型的框架下，分析了在经济一体化条件下公司所得税竞争对资本流动的影响，并利用实证研究论证了欧盟内新欧盟成员国与老欧盟成员国之间的公司所得税竞争对FDI流动的影响。分析表明，欧洲市场一体化程度的加深是导致税收竞争加剧的最主要原因。东道国降低名义公司所得税率对资本流动没有影响，只有相对于母国实际税率的降低才是影响资本流动的关键因素。     

欧盟东扩的收益、代价及其影响

欧盟东扩一直是欧洲一体化进程中难度最大的问题。从2004年5月1日起，波兰、匈矛利等中、东欧10国将陆续成为欧盟的新成员国。这就是说，长久以来欧盟东扩的计划即将实现。欧盟东扩不仅将极大地促进欧洲的稳定和经济发展，而且将提升欧盟作为多极世界中一极的国际地位和影响力。本文首先分析了新旧欧盟成员国基本经济状况和经贸联系以及东扩给欧盟成员国带来的有利影响，然后对东扩的不利影响以及对全球经济影响分别进行了讨论。     

移民汇款对移民母国国内投资的影响研究——基于金融发展的视角

金融发展对移民汇款与移民母国国内投资之间的关系具有重要的调节作用。利用发展中国家中的110个移民母国1980—2020年的面板数据，采用混合最小二乘法（POLS）、两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）和广义矩估计法（GMM）等估算方法处理内生性问题，基于金融发展的视角对移民汇款对移民母国国内投资的影响进行实证检验。结果显示，移民汇款对于移民母国的国内投资存在负面影响，金融发展对这一影响产生了显著的抑制效应。     

人力资本与中国区域经济发展的关系——面板数据分析

本文在卢卡斯模型的基础上利用全国各省市区的面板数据进行人力资本与区域经济发展差距的实证分析,其分析期间设为1997年至2004年。首先利用永续盘存法估算各省市区的物质资本存量,利用受教育年限累积法估算各省市区的人力资本存量,并把人力资本存量划分为初级人力资本存量、中等人力资本存量和高等人力资本存量。本文的分析结果表明:物质资本和劳动力对区域经济发展呈显著正相关;与物质资本和劳动力相比,人力资本尚未对经济增长起到明显的促进作用;高等人力资本对区域经济发展有很强的解释力。在此基础上,本文提出政策建议,就是把教育放在区域经济发展的重要战略地位上。     

最低工资提高对广东人力资本和人力资本结构的影响——基于VAR的实证分析

本文采用广东劳动者平均受教育年限和教育基尼系数分别测算了广东省人力资本存量和人力资本结构,在此基础上,通过采用VAR方法对最低工资的提高对于广东人力资本存量和人力资本结构的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:相对于对人力资本存量的影响,最低工资提高对人力资本结构的影响较大,但总体说来,影响甚微并且都具有时滞性。     

人力资本边际收益递减、后发优势与经济增长——基于国家间面板数据的实证分析

学术界一般认为人力资本边际收益是递增的。本文利用一般动态模型根据世界银行提供的国别数据的实证分析得出的结论刚好相反:人力资本边际收益是递减的。从长期来看,世界的人力资本边际收益呈递减趋势;从国别比较来看,发展中国家的人力资本边际收益高于发达国家。而且从国家层面来看,人力资本存量与经济增长呈负相关关系:人力资本存量低的国家经济增长较快,而人力资本存量高的国家经济增长较慢。人力资本从穷国流向富国而不是相反,这是因为富国的总量劳动生产率高所带来的高工资所致,这并不意味着富国的人力资本边际收益比穷国更高。     

人力资本投资、内生增长与经济发展研究

人力资本是推动经济增长和持续发展的原动力。时下我国正面临着提升经济发展效率、加大人力资本投资并努力提高人力资本存量的问题。因此,对人力资本投资存量和经济发展之间关系进行研究就显得十分必要。本文通过采用内生增长及其修正模型研究了人力资本存量、持续投资与经济增长之间的关系,得到如下结论:第一,物质资本和人力资本配比及人力资本内部构成情况均对经济发展构成影响;第二,人力资本存量与经济增长存在外生引致作用;第三,人力资本投资存在短期和长期两种效应。     

我国教育人力资本结构对产业结构优化升级的研究

本文利用面板门槛模型对2005-2018年省际年度数据,就我国教育人力资本结构与产业结构关系问题进行了研究。将教育人力资本层次结构和高层次人力资本占比分别作为门槛变量对产业结构高级化与合理化指标进行了结构性分析指出,当前我国既有由人力资本存量低引发的产业结构优化升级动力不足的问题,又有因为教育人力资本层次结构异质性较强导致产业结构高级化难度加大的问题,同时还有高层次人力资本受限于产业结构发育水平而无法发挥应有作用的问题。最后文章针对上述问题提出了基于教育人力资本视角的产业结构优化升级解决方案。     

城市移民收入增长的源泉:基于人力资本外部性的新解释

本文考察了城市人力资本外部性对城市移民收入增长的影响,进而从中观视角为城市移民收入增长提供了一种新的解释。研究发现,城市人力资本外部性显著促进了城市居民收入的增长。所在城市大学生比例或相对多样化程度高于家乡城市是市外迁移者收入增长的源泉,而所在城市与家乡城市马歇尔外部性的差异对市外迁移者的收入并未产生显著影响,所在城市与家乡城市劳动力市场厚度的比值则与市外迁移者的收入负相关。具体而言,市外迁移者所在城市与家乡城市人力资本存量的比值每增加1%,迁移者的年收入增长约0.2%,雅各布斯外部性的比值每增加1%,迁移者的年收入增长约0.1%。     

欧盟老成员国向新成员国开放劳动力市场浅析

内容提要劳动力市场的一体化是欧盟经济、社会一体化的重要组成部分,劳动力的跨国自由流动则是欧盟所追求的要素四大自由流动之一。随着欧盟的两次东扩,由于担心新成员国巨大的经济、社会差距带来对本国劳动力市场的冲击,老成员国依据各自的情况和判断,采取了限制或开放的不同态度。本文在介绍欧盟老成员国家各自态度的同时,归纳总结其成因,并分析了欧盟老成员国向新成员国开放劳动力市场已经和可能形成的影响。     

欧元区东扩的进程、问题及其影响

欧元区的扩大进程正在紧锣密鼓地进行。欧元区东扩,即欧盟10个新成员加入欧元区,将是欧洲经济与货币一体化的重要里程碑,也是欧盟一体化进程中的巨大挑战之一。2007~2010年间,欧盟的10个东欧新成员将分别加入欧元区,欧元区可能将由现在的12国扩大为22国。目前,10个新成员正在积极创造条件加入欧元区,其中有5个国家已经达标(《马斯特里赫特条约》规定的趋同标准)。本文认为,新成员是否应该加入欧元区,应权衡得失,从成本和收益方面综合考虑。理性的选择应是在合适的时间、收益高于成本的情况下加入欧元联盟;应该从经济、政治利益方面综合考虑作出决定,而不应该单纯从政治上考虑。欧元区东扩对新老成员的影响利大于弊。欧元的国际地位上升,但未来欧元汇率的不确定性因素增加,国际货币格局将发生重大变化。     

How Sensitive is FDI to Differences in Corporate Income Taxation within the EU?

Differences between corporate taxation of EU member states drive a wedge between after-tax and pre-tax productivity. This implies that productivity could be increased by reallocating capital from low-tax to high-tax member states. Moreover, the integration of the EU capital market may trigger tax competition among member states. The responsiveness of investors to taxation is crucial for the importance of both the misallocation of capital and the extent of tax competition. In this paper we measure this responsiveness by examining the relation between FDI positions and effective corporate income tax rates. Our estimates show that investors from one EU member state increase their FDI position in another EU member state by approximately four percent if the latter decreases its effective corporate income tax rate by one percentage point relative to the European mean.     

Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States

After compiling an index of economic integration that accounts for global (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration of the EU member states we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a growth accounting framework, using a panel of fifteen EU member states over the period 1950–2000. While the hypothesis of permanent growth effects is rejected, the results—though not completely robust to controlling for time-specific effects—suggest sizeable level effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one-fifth lower today if no integration had taken place since 1950. JEL no. C33, F15, F43, O52     

On the institutional design of burden sharing when financing external border enforcement in the EU

Illegal immigration affects not only EU member states adjacent, but also those distant from the Mediterranean Sea due to open internal borders and intra-EU onward migration. Member states without a direct influx of illegal immigrants may therefore free-ride on border countries’ enforcement efforts, leading to a sub-optimal level of border control when immigration policy remains uncoordinated. By applying a numerical example, we show that an expected externality mechanism leads to voluntary preference revelation with respect to immigration policy under several (but not all) scenarios, thereby avoiding strategic behavior in the regular negotiation process. This policy measure requires, however, the EU Commission to take on a very active role as moderator between member states (rather than as legislator).     

欧盟成员国银行业政策主要特点分析

本文认为欧盟《第二银行指令》全面推动了欧盟各成员国银行业规制协调,可将成员国近20年以来的银行业政策主要特点归纳为四个方面,即全面放松管制、私有化、鼓励银行并购和对外扩张,金融监管体制一体化。这些政策促进了各成员国银行业竞争和快速发展,提高了欧盟银行业效率和盈利,有助于降低消费者和企业的融资成本,提高欧盟银行业整体抗风险能力。     

Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States

The issues of enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and economic development are important not only to new European Union (EU) member states but impact all 25 countries. EU membership may help the new members to foster long-term economic growth through increased credibility, effective use of structural funds, a better framework for economic growth, and entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). The economic growth of all member states can be strengthened if the reforms related to the main goals of the Lisbon Agenda are completed. Action must be taken both at the member-state level and at the Community level. At the member-state level it is necessary to assure fiscal consolidation and deregulation. At the Community level the preservation of the Stability and Growth Pact, completion of the single market, especially in the service sector, and enforcement of limits on public aid are of the greatest importance.The 2006 Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Address presented at the Sixty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference. Berlin, Germany, 15–19 March 2006. In preparing this paper, I was assisted by Pawel Opala and Andrzej Rzońca. The usual caveats apply.     

A New EU Member Country on the Road to the Euro Area: Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Slovenia

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.      

Fragmentation and trade: US inward processing trade in the EU

Fragmentation and Trade: US Inward Processing Trade in the EU. — Fragmentation, which refers to the splitting up of a previously integrated production process into separate components, is seen as one of the reasons for the increasing globalization of the world economy. This paper undertakes an empirical study of the extent of US inward processing trade (IPT) in the EU, which we use as a proxy for fragmentation in trade. We also provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the distribution of US IPT across manufacturing sectors in the twelve EU member states. Our results give support to the importance of comparative advantage for the sectoral distribution of US IPT. Also, we find that the labour costs and the level of US FDI stocks affect US IPT in EU peripheral countries, while they do not seem to have any impact on EU core countries.     

Risks to the long-term stability of the euro

There are grounds for immediate and long-term concerns with respect to the prospects for the stability of the euro's purchasing power. The immediate concerns arise from the pressures on the ECB to be more accommodative and the drive to weaken the Stability and Growth Pact. The long-term concerns arise from the spending obligations the member governments have assumed to provide pensions and health care to their aging populations for the next half-century, and the imminent enlargement of the EU to include ten states that are less economically and institutionally advanced than the present group of member states. The outlook is for greater spending by governments than their projected resources unless forces not now visible will strengthen the resolve of political leaders to serve the cause of a sound euro.Presidential address at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Quebec City, Canada on Saturday, October 18, 2003.     

谁将受益欧盟东扩

今年5月1日起,中东欧10国加入欧盟,欧盟随之完成了“东扩”。欧盟东扩给我国企业对新入盟10国市场的产品出口带来了新机遇,也造成了新的困难和挑战。对此,我国企业应适时采取应变策略,减小负面影响。