Financial sector bargaining power,aggregate growth and systemic risk

Recent decades have seen a substantial increase in the size and influence of the financial industry in advanced economies. Mainstream theory states that the financial sector can increase the efficiency and stability of the real economy by reducing informational asymmetries and transaction costs. Nevertheless, the rise of the financial industry has been accompanied by lower aggregate growth, increased inequality and declining financial stability. With this in mind, the main aim of the present article is to provide a different perspective on the rise of finance in developed countries, by focusing on the impact of financial markets on aggregate growth and economic (in)stability. Specifically, we analyse the role of the bargaining power of financial intermediaries in promoting (or reducing) the entrance of new enterprises in the market and find that the financial sector is essential for the good functioning of the real economy, but that an overdeveloped financial industry can reduce the incentive for new firms to start production, resulting in a negative impact on aggregate growth and economic stability.

     

Financial development,portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa

According to the conservative view, capital flows enhance economic growth. Focussing on Africa’s real economy, this study investigates the linkage between portfolio investments and real sector growth, and whether financial sector development strengthens this association. The study covers 30 countries over the period 1990–2017. We adopt the Lewbel instrumental variable general method of moments (IV-GMM) two-step robust estimator, which relies on heteroscedasticity for identification, while dealing with instrument insufficiency, unavailability, endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We found that portfolio equity has no growth impact on Africa’s real sector. Debt flows deter the growth of the overall real sector as well as the manufacturing and industrial sectors, but have no impact on agriculture and service growth. We found that financial development does strengthen the positive association between capital flows and economic growth, but this is dependent on the type of sector and portfolio investment, as well as on the degree of financial development. We control for known determinants of economic growth.     

Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

Evidence-based planning for countries in the midst of conflict is often constrained by missing data and the lack of appropriate analytical tools. To overcome these constraints, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to investigate the impact of conflict on Yemen’s economy and to analyze potential pathways for recovery after the conflict finally ends. Our results suggest that conflict-related disruptions in agriculture and mining sent devastating shockwaves throughout the economy, accounting for the lion’s share of the country’s economic losses and increase in poverty. Our results suggest that supporting agriculture should take the highest priority, as reconstruction of that sector, followed by the mining sector, has the largest positive impact on growth and poverty reduction. However, our estimates also suggest that the restoration of its prewar economic status quo is unlikely. In addition to serving as a direct input for Yemen’s reconstruction planning, our paper also demonstrates the usefulness of overarching models for conflict and postconflict economic assessments.     

Lending attitude as a financial accelerator in a credit network economy

In existing literature, commercial banks are often considered mere financial intermediaries that facilitate the flow of credit in an imperfect credit market. However, as demonstrated in the history of financial instability, the behavior of financial institutions plays an important role. This paper examines how lenders’ attitudes affect macroeconomic performance. In our analysis, the economy is composed of multiple borrowers (firms) and one lender (bank). Each borrower is directly connected to the lender through its credit contract. At the same time, each borrower is indirectly connected to all the other borrowers within the credit network. Using this model, we execute computer simulations to examine the economic consequences of lending attitudes. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the bank’s lending attitude functions as a financial accelerator; that is, it significantly affects the dynamics of the economic system through the credit network. Consequently, the same level of exogenous shock generates completely different outcomes depending on the different lending attitudes. The results also show that there exists an optimal lending attitude that leads to high economic growth and a stable growth path.     

How does FinTech affect the development of the digital economy? Evidence from China

Financial Technology (FinTech) is key to the global ascendency of China's finance, and the digital economy is a new driving force in the sustainable development and high-quality growth of China's economy. So, what is the nature of the relationship between FinTech and the digital economy. Based on the CRITIC method, this study calculates the China's 31 provinces’ (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) FinTech indices from 2008 to 2018 and the digital economy development indices from 2012 to 2018, and analyzes the impact of FinTech on the digital economy and its underlying mechanism. The results show that FinTech stimulates the development of the digital economy in China by promoting technological innovation and weakening the financial decentralization of local governments. Further research indicates that local financial regulatory resources have a positive moderating effect on the impact of FinTech in promoting the development of the digital economy. Increased local financial regulatory resources will enable FinTech to promote the development of the digital economy, but this regulatory role is only significant in financially developed areas. The approach of the study is relatively novel.     

Can digital financial inclusion promote female entrepreneurship? Evidence and mechanisms

Female entrepreneurship is important for business and economic development. However, women face greater obstacles than men in accessing financing and information, making it more difficult for them to engage in entrepreneurship. This paper examines the impact of digital financial inclusion on female entrepreneurship by using a national sample consisting of matched data from a digital financial inclusion index and a nationally representative survey. The results show that digital financial inclusion significantly promotes women’s entrepreneurial behavior. We find that digital financial inclusion can ease women’s financing constraints and provide business information to alleviate their information constraints. Furthermore, the development of digital financial inclusion improves women’s work flexibility, inspiring them to engage in entrepreneurship. In addition, digital financial inclusion has a greater effect on entrepreneurship among vulnerable women, such as those with less education or a lack of financial autonomy and those living in areas with high gender inequality, which supports the idea that digital financial inclusion can empower women.     

金融发展、FDI技术溢出与中国经济增长——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

基于1990年-2008年中国省际面板数据,就金融发展水平决定的FDI溢出效应对中国经济增长影响的实证研究表明,样本期内FDI通过其资本积累效应,对中国经济增长产生了显著的促进作用,且这一作用有随时间而强化的趋势;金融发展具有放大FDI技术溢出效应的作用,并由此对中国经济增长产生正面影响,但目前来看这一影响还比较小;"金融抑制"现象依然存在并对中国经济增长产生了不利影响,但在经历了多年的金融体制改革之后,"金融抑制"现象已有所减轻,其对经济增长的负面影响趋于减弱。     

The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa

It is widely understood that the insurance and banking sectors of every economy perform some functions in driving economic growth. What is not yet well documented is whether their roles are complimentary or substitutive. With the aid of the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique, this paper evaluates the synergistic effect of both sectors on economic growth in a panel of 10 African countries that are responsible for most of the activities in the continent’s financial sector. The insurance-banking-growth nexus was also examined through bootstrap panel causality tests. The results show that the life insurance market and the banking sector, as well as the non-life insurance market and the banking sector, are complimentary. We find that, overall, the relationship between the insurance and banking sectors in Africa is a complimentary one and that their synergistic impact on economic growth is positive. The feedback hypothesis was also confirmed in the relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth and between the banking sector and economic growth.     

Global finance,sovereign risk and economic performance of Brazil

This paper examines the impact of globalized financial markets on domestic economic policymaking and, ultimately, on economic sovereignty. It argues that the development of dollar-denominated Brady bonds, eurobonds, and global bonds issued by Latin sovereigns opened a new venue for foreign capital to participate in economic affairs of these countries. A natural outcome of the globalization of Brazil’s financial markets has been the increased vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to contagion from financial crises in other troubled markets of the globe. This paper focuses on how the contagion channel compromised domestic economic policymaking and affected the real sector of the Brazilian economy. It offers the first analytical attempt at estimating the real cost of contagion by investigating the impact of the Russian and the Argentine crises on Brazil’s output and production.     

Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR

We apply vector autoregression (VAR) to firm-level panel data from 36 countries to study the dynamic relationship between firms’ financial conditions and investment. By using orthogonalized impulse-response functions we are able to separate the ‘fundamental factors’ (such as marginal profitability of investment) from the ‘financial factors’ (such as availability of internal finance) that influence the level of investment. We find that the impact of financial factors on investment, which indicates the severity of financing constraints, is significantly larger in countries with less developed financial systems. Our finding emphasizes the role of financial development in improving capital allocation and growth.     

中国数字经济规模测度与生产率分析

研究目标:考察中国数字经济的规模与结构特征,分析数字要素对中国经济生产率的影响及其变化趋势。研究方法:基于投入产出序列表数据,结合数字经济内涵、信息经济理论及增长核算方法,建立数字经济规模和全要素生产率测算框架进行分析。研究发现:近年来,中国数字经济规模年均实际增长率高达11.24%,已经成为支撑经济增长的重要推动力量;中国数字经济结构不断变化,数字融合部门增速高于数字替代部门,但二者均低于数字基础部门的增速;中国经济增速逐步放缓,而全要素生产率总体上行,数字资本在经济增长中的份额呈上升趋势。研究创新:提出包含三大效应的数字经济测度理论,将数字经济划分为基础部门、融合部门和替代部门,建立数字经济核算的方法框架,关注并考察了数字要素的增长效应。研究价值:有助于完善数字经济测度理论,为推动中国经济高质量发展提供依据。     

金融危机对陕西经济的影响及对策建议

由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机,对世界各地经济的影响逐步显现。陕西作为西部地区经济发展的桥头堡,金融危机中也不可避免地受到影响。本文通过分析此次金融危机的形成原因和特点,论述了这场危机对陕西经济的影响,提出了陕西经济发展的对策建议。     

数字人民币发展的机遇、挑战及政策建议

数字经济的发展,令我国数字人民币进展加快。数字人民币直接关系到货币数字化的推进及支付体系数字化的转型、国家数字金融基础设施的重构、对冲私人数字货币的影响、金融监管数字化转型的加快及人民币国际化水平的提升。发展数字人民币具有经济转型和制度保障、数字经济发展和应用场景、金融科技发展和竞争容错、高质量经济发展和超大贸易规模等机遇与优势;同时也面临市场、技术及体制约束,以及复杂国际环境的挑战。因此,我国应完善货币及金融法律制度体系、数字人民币监管体系、数字人民币技术体系、金融生态环境体系、跨境支付结算体系,加强数字货币技术与规则和国际合作体系建设。     

消费与经济增长的关系

消费对于经济增长有举足轻重的作用,消费逐日成为很多人所关心的话题,随着世界经济的不断衰退,在美国金融危机的影响下,我国经济也受到了较大的影响。消费,投资,净出口,我国经济增长的"三驾马车"。投资与净出口已经趋于较高水平,消费对于经济的重要作用愈来愈明显。本论文主要使用了我国1991-2005年的相关经济数据,使用消费模型分析了我国的消费对经济增长的影响,指出了我国经济发展过程消费需求不足的主要原因,并提出了在当前经济形势下扩大消费需求的对策建议。     

知识经济对我国会计领域的影响

我们面对的时代是知识经济时代，知识将成为经济长期增长的首要因素。知识经济对我国会计领域的影响是全方位的。文章从会计假设、会计原则与财务报告体系等方面阐述了知识经济对会计领域的影响。     

Bank competition,financial development and macroeconomic stability: Empirical evidence from emerging economies

In this study, we investigate the potential contribution of bank competition to macroeconomic stability, and the interactive role of financial development. We classify macroeconomic stability into economic and financial stability. Economic stability is represented by the volatility of actual and unexpected output growth, whereas financial stability is assessed by the aggregate Z-score and volatility of the private credit-to-gross domestic product ratio. We employ two structural and two non-structural measures of bank competition in our analysis. Applying a two-step dynamic panel system (GMM) to macroeconomic data from 48 developing nations from 1999 to 2018, we find a bell-shaped relationship between bank competition and macroeconomic stability. The findings imply that a higher level of bank competition promotes macroeconomic stability by reducing output growth volatility, fluctuations in private credit, and the probability of bank default. There is an optimal level of bank competition beyond which it may foster economic and financial instability. Moreover, financial development enhances bank competition’s positive impact on macroeconomic stability.     

中国进出口贸易的金融危机冲击效应——基于B-N数据分解的分析

基于2001年1月至2009年9月共105个月份的中国实际进出口贸易总额数据,运用Beveridge-Nelson(B-N)数据分解法对序列的确定性趋势项、周期项和随机冲击项进行了分解,分析了国际金融危机对我国进出口贸易总额的冲击效应,得出结论:第一,我国进出口贸易具有相对较强的抗干扰能力;第二,受外需下降等因素的影响,当前国际金融危机对我国进出口贸易的冲击程度相对较大;第三,我国进出口贸易受国际金融危机的冲击程度正在逐渐减弱,复苏迹象已渐渐显现。复苏后,外向依赖型的经济增长结构将发生较大改变,扩内需和调结构将带来新的经济增长点。     

IFRS,financial development and income inequality: An empirical study using mediation analysis

Income inequality continues to be an issue of concern. Early work on economic development suggested that, as a country’s economy grows, incomes would rise and reduce any income disparities. However, there is growing evidence that as countries develop, income inequality actually worsens. Some studies argue that this is the result of financial development and the growth of the financial sector. Although there is a good deal of empirical research on the relationship between financial development and income inequality, there is no prior work that examines how accounting standards, in particular International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), might influence this relationship. This study examines the relationship of IFRS and financial development with income inequality using mediation analysis over the period from 1998 to 2018. The results indicate that the impact of IFRS on income inequality is mediated by financial development. Moreover, there is a direct relationship between IFRS and inequality.     

Financial development and economic growth in Vietnam

By making use of a panel dataset that covers 61 provinces of Vietnam over the period 1997 to 2006, this paper examines the link between financial development and economic growth. Our analysis, which is based on endogenous growth theory, reveals that financial development has contributed to economic growth in Vietnam. We find that high ratio of credit to Gross Provincial Product (GPP) has accelerated economic growth in Vietnam. We also found a strong positive link between financial development and economic growth when alternative measures of financial development were used. The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth will be stronger if more resources are invested in financial market development.     

Financial Constraints: Routine Versus Cutting Edge R&D Investment

We analyze financial constraints on R&D, where we account for heterogeneity among investments that has been neglected in previous literature. According to economic theory, investments should be distinguished by their degree of uncertainty, e.g. routine R&D versus cutting‐edge R&D. Financial constraints should be more binding for cutting‐edge R&D than for routine R&D. Using panel data we find that R&D spending of firms devoting a significant fraction of R&D to cutting‐edge projects is curtailed by credit constraints while routine R&D investments are not. This has important policy implications with respect to the distribution of R&D subsidies in the economy.