Role of digital finance,investment, and trade in technological progress

The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of digital finance, trade, and investment on technological progress in 30 developing Asian economies by employing the FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) technique and annual data from 2000 to 2020. The findings concluded that digital finance has a positive impact on technology progress. Moreover, trade liberalization may accelerate technological progress. Foreign direct investment has no significant coefficient, interpreting that inward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) to the examined developing Asian economies is unrelated to technological progress. The causality test confirmed a neutrality hypothesis for the causal relationship between FDI and technological progress. Furthermore, the bi-directional linkage between trade openness and technological progress is confirmed. The paper recommends that developing economies increase the share of investment in technological progress, prioritization of regionalism and trade multilateralism for technology transfer, and establishment of a “digital financial inclusion” framework.     

Digital finance and corporate financial fraud

Corporate financial fraud harms the interests of investors and affects the healthy development of the capital market. Understanding corporate financial fraud has important academic value and practical significance. Digital finance been rapidly developing over the past few years and scholars are investigating strategies for using digital finance as a tool to curb corporate financial fraud. This paper empirically examines the direct effect, intrinsic mechanism, and heterogeneous effect of digital finance on corporate financial fraud based on panel data of A-share listed corporations in China from 2011 to 2020. Results show that digital finance significantly inhibits corporate financial fraud. The breadth of coverage and depth of usage within digital finance show inhibitory effects on corporate financial fraud. This suggests that a combination of coverage and depth is needed to improve the success of digital finance on corporate financial fraud. The internal mechanisms suggest that digital finance inhibits corporate financial fraud by alleviating financing constraints, reducing corporate leverage, and decreasing agency costs. The heterogeneity analysis shows digital finance has a greater inhibitory effect for large-scale corporates, state-owned corporates, and corporates in areas with low degree of marketization. Our findings can provide reference for financial institutions, investors, analysts, and regulators to improve the quality of decision-making.     

Finance–Growth Nexus: New Insights from the West African Region

This article examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in the West African region accounting for both structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency. Although the panel data study reveals that financial development has positive impact on economic growth in the entire West African region, the disaggregated data analysis discovers that variations in financial development can only explain variations in economic growth in about 75% of the countries in West Africa. This study has succeeded in revealing the countries where finance accelerates growth and countries where it does not. The weak impact of finance on growth in some of the countries could be due to low income level, low level of financial development, weak institutions, macroeconomic instability, and high inflation rates. Knowing where finance spurs growth and where it does not is fundamental for policymaking.     

Does too much finance harm economic growth?

This study provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and economic growth using an innovative dynamic panel threshold technique. The sample consists of 87 developed and developing countries. The empirical results indicate that there is a threshold effect in the finance–growth relationship. In particular, we find that the level of financial development is beneficial to growth only up to a certain threshold; beyond the threshold level further development of finance tends to adversely affect growth. These findings reveal that more finance is not necessarily good for economic growth and highlight that an “optimal” level of financial development is more crucial in facilitating growth.     

数字时代的银行业变迁——网点布局与行业结构

数字技术可以帮助市场主体重构组织模式,数字经济时代的金融业也因此迎来变革。本文基于2014年至2019年我国县级行政区数据,研究发现,数字金融的发展显著减缓了我国银行业金融机构实体网点的扩张势头,这种效应主要体现在股份制商业银行和城市商业银行上,并主要影响这两类银行的基层机构。同时,我们发现数字金融的发展加快了农村合作金融机构的转型和网点退出,但对国有“六大行”没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,数字金融的影响效果会随着经济发展程度提高和地区金融可得性增加而增强,但随着在位银行的市场势力提升而下降。本文为理解数字经济时代银行业的变迁提供了一定参考。     

The composite risk-sharing finance index: Implications for Islamic finance

In policy-making, assessment of where a country stands relative to other countries is important to achieve desired goals, to understand how much the current policy implementation diverts from the target, and to understand main obstacles on reaching at the ends in the light of the comparators and the benchmark. This study evaluates relative standing of countries with respect to their financial system's friendliness for risk-sharing finance, the concept which forms the core foundation of Islamic finance. A composite risk-sharing finance friendliness index is developed to compare and rank the countries with regard to their level of their support and adoption of risk-sharing finance. Although, there have been attempts to develop such index, this study is novel in the Islamic finance literature in the sense that it brings the factor analysis and non-linear weights into the picture to come up with an objective and convincing composite index with objective weights. The composite index also allows us to look into the relative contribution of components, namely, Institutional Scaffolding, Governance and Legal Environment, Financial Sector Development and Inclusion. The results and ranking of the countries reveal important information about the potential of developing risk-sharing finance and financial products in different countries. The results also reveal that the OIC countries are far away from meeting the basic requirements of setting-up risk-sharing finance and thus a framework for comprehensive development of Islamic finance.     

How does digital inclusive finance affect economic resilience: Evidence from 285 cities in China

Digital inclusive finance can provide effective financial services to consumers and enterprises that are excluded from traditional finance, thereby improving the vitality and resilience of the economy. Using panel data from 285 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020, this study explores the mechanism of the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic resilience. We also empirically test the direct effect of digital inclusive finance on economic resilience, the moderating effect of the market environment, and the transmission path of mediating variables. The study shows that improving the level of digital inclusive finance has a positive impact on economic resilience, which mainly stems from the deepening of the coverage breadth and use depth of digital inclusive finance and gradually increases over time. In the heterogeneity analysis, we find that the enhanced effect of digital inclusive finance on economic resilience is more significant in the central and eastern regions and in cities with larger economies in China. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the better the financial market environment and business environment are, the stronger the role of digital inclusion finance in promoting economic resilience. In addition, the increase in innovative technology and the growth of the consumption level are two important mediating variables for digital inclusive finance to actively contribute to economic resilience.     

Trading externalities and new equity issues in emerging markets

The volatility in emerging market finance over the last decade has highlighted the importance of developing equity exchanges to enhance risk sharing between international investors. Debt markets do not allow for as much risk sharing. Theoretically, stock market development involves trading externalities, as the decision by one firm to list provides a positive spillover for other firms considering an initial offering. This theory thus has a clear policy implication in terms of deliberate government action to promote stock market development. This paper tests empirically for the existence of trading externalities in developing countries, and finds evidence of such externalities for Latin American, but not Asian, stock markets.     

数字金融发展是否存在马太效应？——贫困户与非贫困户的经验比较

数字普惠金融发展是否存在马太效应,贫困户和非贫困户之间的收入不平等是否会因此而加剧值得深入研究。基于中国劳动力动态调查和北京大学数字普惠金融指数,从数字金融的覆盖广度和使用深度来考察数字金融发展是否存在马太效应及其作用机制。结果表明:贫困户可借助数字金融平滑生存型消费和积累发展型要素,但效果并不显著,而非贫困户在有效利用数字金融功能防范风险、平滑消费、积累要素的同时,还能休闲娱乐,数字金融发展的马太效应明显;不同数字金融产品的马太效应具有显著差异,数字征信的效应最大,数字信贷、数字支付次之;数字金融发展对不同收入差距类型的影响具有显著异质性,对经营性收入差距的影响最为明显。本文为研究数字普惠金融提供了新的视角,可为未来数字金融缩小收入差距政策的制定提供有益参考。     

中国与东南亚国家贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,以1998-2016年中国及东南亚九个国家面板数据为样本,测度中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力,并分析其主要影响因素。结果表明：1998-2016年中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力呈现先上升后下降趋势,依然有较大提升空间,中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力差异较大。航空运输货运量、货币自由度、财务自由度、商业自由度及世界贸易组织成员国均对出口贸易非效率具有显著的影响。     

数字普惠金融与农业高质量发展水平的收敛性研究

采用2011—2018年省际面板数据,建立农业高质量发展的指标体系,测算我国28个省份的农业高质量发展水平,基于测算结果分析农业高质量发展水平的收敛性。结果表明:我国农业高质量发展水平存在区域差异,东部地区农业高质量发展水平最高,其次是中部地区和西部地区;农业高质量发展水平在全国及区域层面上均呈现收敛性特征,东部地区收敛速度最慢、中部地区最快。同时进一步分析了数字普惠金融对农业高质量发展的影响,并借助条件收敛模型探讨数字普惠金融对农业高质量发展的收敛效应。总体表明:无论是从全国层面还是从东部、中部、西部三大地区来看,我国数字普惠金融的发展与农业高质量发展水平呈正相关关系;数字普惠金融发展提高了全国及东部、中部、西部的农业高质量发展水平的收敛速度,有利于农业高质量发展水平的区域均衡发展。     

数字金融、家庭相对收入及脆弱性——兼论多维“鸿沟”的影响

数字金融发展是否有利于提升家庭相对收入并降低家庭脆弱性值得深入研究。基于宏微观匹配数据,本文从相对收入及脆弱性视角考察了数字金融的增收效应及其微观作用机理,并分析了多维“鸿沟”的影响。研究表明,数字金融发展,尤其是使用深度的提升,有利于提升家庭相对收入水平、降低脆弱性。微观作用机制在于,数字金融发展能够有效提升家庭金融可得性和使用性,并促进潜在投资行为和就业创业活动。进一步分析发现,数字金融发展虽然体现了普惠特征,但并未明显打破空间限制,对城镇等发达地区及具有数字设备、受过金融教育等家庭的相对收入及脆弱性展现出更强的作用;对贫困户、无数字设备等家庭的相对收入作用不显著,充分体现了破除多维“鸿沟”的紧迫性。本文为进一步优化数字金融缩小收入差距、降低家庭脆弱性的政策提供了参考。     

金融发展、汇改最优次序与长期经济增长--基于118个经济体的面板模型的分析

本文构建由金融发展、资本开放、汇率制度与产出增长组成的理论模型,选取世界上118个经济体1972-2016年的宏观数据,综合运用动态面板、面板门槛与面板IV模型进行实证分析。本文得出主要结论为:第一,在汇率制度弹性对长期经济增长的边际影响中,金融发展水平呈显著为正的调节效应;第二,对于金融发展水平较高的国家,汇率制度弹性在资本项目开放度与长期经济增长之间存在显著正向的调节效应;第三,在金融发展水平较高时,对外贸易开放度在汇率制度弹性与长期经济增长之间存在显著为正的中介效应。借鉴历史发展经验,本文归纳出"先发展国内金融市场,再开放浮动汇率,最后加强资本开放"的汇改最优次序,为我国克服汇率制度改革难点、推进资本项目开放、维持经济基本面稳定增长提出合理化政策建议。     

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics,financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995–2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis and the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.     

Finance and Property Rights: Exploring Other Directions

There is a consensus that stronger property rights advance financial development. We provide evidence that the reverse hypothesis is also true. We isolate the structural component in the finance–property rights relationship using an instrument for financial development (private credit) based on an index of exposure to foreign crises, in addition to generalized method of moments approaches for panel data. Our results suggest a one standard deviation increase in private credit from its average in 2005 translates into a 0.5‐ to 1.0‐point increase in property rights. To contextualize this, the difference in property rights between Israel and Uruguay, two countries separated by about one standard deviation in the volume of private credit, was 0.67 points.     

数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率研究

数字普惠金融是传统普惠金融的持续深化,是减缓相对贫困的重要支撑力量。本文采用DEA-Tobit模型,利用2011—2018年我国31个省市数字普惠金融和相对贫困等数据,测算了数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率与影响因素。研究结果表明:我国数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困的效率偏低且区域差异大,其中规模效率是西部地区综合效率较低的最主要原因,数字普惠金融减缓相对贫困存在较大的发展潜力;数字普惠金融减贫生产率指数变动主要受技术进步变动影响。在影响因素方面,金融中介效率、产业结构与财政自给率的提高与优化有利于提高数字普惠金融减贫效率;而金融发展规模的扩大会阻碍数字普惠金融减贫效率的提高。     

Institutional Quality,Trade Openness,and Financial Sector Development in Asia: An Empirical Investigation

We examine the determinants of financial sector development in Asia and the Pacific from 1995 to 2011. In terms of economic growth, over the last twenty years the region has outperformed other parts of the world and has also experienced major developments in its traditionally bank-dominated financial system since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We apply the dynamic generalized method of moments to a panel data set of twenty-six economies in the region. The estimations were done for the whole panel as well as for subpanels of developed and developing economies. We find that better governance and institutional quality foster financial sector development in developing economies while economic growth and trade openness are key determinants of financial depth in developed economies.     

数字金融对家庭金融资产配置的影响研究

摘 要：随着科技进步和社会发展,数字金融作为一种新的金融形态,为家庭金融资产配置提供了更多的选择和便利。本文基于家庭金融资产配置理论详细阐述了家庭金融资产面临的三大困境：信息有限性、金融素养有限性和金融接触有限性,得出数字金融在一定程度上能够正向推动家庭金融资产配置。基于此,提出持续推进数字金融的建设与发展、提升居民的金融素养和加强数字化信息的监管,以期进一步优化我国家庭金融资产配置结构。     

数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响研究

摘 要：本文基于2014-2020年中国1 453个县域的面板数据,实证分析数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响及其内在机理。研究结果表明:数字金融能够显著增强县域经济韧性,内生性和稳健性检验结果表明以上结论仍然成立。机制分析表明,数字金融能通过缩小城乡收入差距、提高资本配置效率和促进产业结构升级提升县级经济韧性水平。异质性结果表明,数字金融对中东部县、大型县和金融排斥程度较强县的经济韧性水平的提升作用较大。数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响还具有双重门槛效应,当数字金融发展水平较弱时,对县域经济韧性促进作用较小;而当数字金融发展水平跨过第一门槛和第二门槛后,其对县域经济韧性的促进效应明显增强。为此,本文提出加大数字金融普及力度、鼓励科技创新、结合县域特点因地制宜、科学施策,同时也需加强对数字金融的监管。     

普惠金融究竟如何影响居民生活?——来自我国省际层面的经验证据

我国社会的主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的对美好生活的需要和不平衡、不充分的发展之间的矛盾。普惠金融是解决地区发展不平衡、城乡发展不平衡的有力举措。当前,普惠金融研究聚焦在银行业与居民收入,未将非银金融业与居民消费纳入考虑;此外,将普惠金融指标的波动性作为权重来构建普惠金融指数,也缺乏经济学含义。本文首次根据各省份五项金融业全口径普惠发展指标,基于经济的相关性设定指标权重,采用加权几何平均法构建省际普惠金融综合指数,从收入和消费双重视角实证研究普惠金融对居民生活的异质性影响。研究结果表明,普惠金融对各地区居民的收入和消费以及边际消费倾向等均有正向刺激作用,且刺激作用的大小与居民的收入和消费水平成正比,因而,普惠金融对城镇居民收入和消费以及边际消费倾向等的刺激作用大于农村居民。鉴此,本文提出普惠金融的发展重心应向欠发达地区、农村地区倾斜的政策建议。