Housing Boom,Dutch Disease,and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports

Drawing on Dutch disease theory, we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports. Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013, our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels: resource movement effect and spending effect. Specifically, this paper found that: (i) the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry (resource movement effect) and caused higher inflation (spending effect); (ii) the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports, especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008; (iii) the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous, and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses, businesses that were foreign owned, less R&D intensive, or located in the central and western regions.     

Ownership,performance, and innovation in China's large- and medium-size industrial enterprise sector

China's 22,000 large- and medium-size enterprises (LMEs) stand at the pinnacle of Chinese industry. Although they account for less than a fraction of a percent of China's nearly 8 million industrial enterprises, they collectively account for one third of the nation's total industrial output. Using a panel of these enterprise data for 1994–1999, we find a rapidly diversifying ownership structure in which the role of the state is steadily retreating. At the same time, we find considerable variation in measures of performance across ownership types and see emerging within Chinese industry, evidence of high-intensity R&D performers that exhibit substantial innovation capabilities.     

中国服务业开放对区域创新的影响

通过使用中介效应检验法,系统考察了中国服务业开放对区域创新的影响,发现中国服务业开放有助于促进区域创新。中国服务业开放的研发资本投入效应、服务业开放的研发劳动投入效应、服务业开放对制造业进出口贸易的推动效应在服务业开放对中国区域创新的影响中存在中介效应,而服务业开放对人均GDP的拉动效应在服务业开放对中国区域创新的影响中不存在中介效应。东部地区通过服务贸易进口获得的国外研发资本存量能显著促进区域创新,而中部、西部和东北地区通过服务贸易进口获得的国外研发资本存量不能显著促进区域创新。     

外商直接投资对零售业的溢出效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

运用2006—2018年省际面板数据分析对外直接投资(FDI)对中国零售业的溢出效应.结果显示,FDI对中国内资零售业的溢出效应和挤出效应并存:FDI的参与度会对中国内资零售业的技术进步产生负面影响,不利于FDI集聚性行业内溢出效应的产生;而外资零售企业的劳动生产率有利于中国内资企业的技术溢出,表现为FDI效率性行业内溢出效应.此外,企业规模在中部地区的影响更显著,资本密集度对中国内资零售业的技术进步具有显著的正向影响.     

中国集成电路上市企业技术创新效率影响因素研究

基于2015—2019年中国集成电路产业59家上市企业技术创新投入产出数据,在技术创新效率测度的基础上,利用Tobit模型对中国集成电路上市企业技术创新效率影响因素进行研究。结果表明：集成电路上市企业技术创新效率总体处于低水平阶段,且呈下降趋势;知识生产效率明显高于成果转化效率,成果转化效率低是造成技术创新效率低的主要原因;政府补助、R&D人员投入强度、R&D经费投入强度、企业规模4个指标负向影响技术创新效率;金融支持力度正向促进技术创新效率提升;盈利能力对技术创新效率影响较小。在此基础上,为促进中国集成电路上市企业技术创新效率提升提出了针对性改进建议。     

Corporate innovation in China and its implications

China's current economic transition policies focus on shifting from export‐driven manufacturing towards high‐end, high‐tech research and development (R&D), and domestic consumption. Since the early 2000s the government has issued a series of policies and guidelines to encourage innovation. Both in‐house R&D investment and the number of patent grants/applications have seen considerable growth in recent years. More specifically, industry‐funded R&D was responsible for more than three quarters of total in‐house R&D investment. Despite the rapid growth in R&D expenditure and the number of patents, China's corporate innovation still faces many obstacles and challenges. To further stimulate corporate innovation, the government may need to create an environment of fair competition for domestic enterprises, encourage the growth of institutional investors and their active participation in corporate governance, and improve the efficiency of financial systems. The experience of China in promoting innovation provides policy approaches and implications from which other emerging economies can learn.     

Income and Price Elasticities of China＇s Exports

The appearance of new product varieties and improvements in the quality of goods have both played key roles in the rapid growth of China's exports. However, these two important elements have not been formally integrated into the demand equations for China's exports. As we demonstrate in this paper, income elasticity will be underestimated if new varieties of goods and quality improvements are omitted in price index and quantity index calculations, which are necessary for estimating the export demand function. Moreover, the faster new product varieties enter export markets, the greater the underestimation will be. In this paper, we develop an export demand equation that takes into account new product varieties and improvements in quality, and then calculate the demand function for China's exports using the data from 1992 to 2006. According to our estimation, the short‐term income elasticity of demand for China's exports is approximately 2.34, and the short‐term price elasticity is approximately –0.65. Our estimation predicts an increase in China's export value in the case of an RMB appreciation or export rebate rates reduction in the short term, due to the low price elasticity of China's exports, whose absolute value is less than 1. Our findings are novel and could have significant policy implications.     

Going out to innovate more at home: Impacts of outward direct investments on Chinese firms' domestic innovation performance

This study explores the effects of cross-border mergers & acquisitions (CBMA) on domestic innovation of Chinese firms. We build a new panel dataset that matches information on CBMA and innovation activities for China's publicly listed firms. We rely on matching techniques combined with a difference-in-differences estimator to study the causal effects of CBMA respectively on firms' investments in innovation, innovation outputs, and financial performance. The main findings reveal that CBMA has both a positive impact on firms' R&D spending and number of patent applications, no statistically significant effect on the number of granted patents or on the quality of those patents, and a negative effect on firms' financial performance. These results depend, however, on the type of CBMA (horizontal or vertical), destination country (OECD or non-OECD), and the technological intensity (high-tech or not) of the acquirer and target firm. Overall, the findings bring into question whether CBMAs, and China's going-out strategy, will significantly boost its indigenous innovation capabilities.     

Local land supply and fiscal incentives for R&D: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Whereas numerous studies have evaluated the effects of public research and development (R&D) support programs and R&D tax incentives on private R&D, little is known about local governments' fiscal incentives for R&D. In this study, we build a conceptual framework to clarify the critical role of local land supply in relation to fiscal expenditure on R&D. We treat the establishment of China's nine Land Supervision Bureaus in 2006 as a quasi-natural experiment, and run a difference-in-differences regression to identify causality. The results show that local governments allocate more fiscal expenditure to R&D in response to land-use supervision, which monitors illegal land granting behaviors, and this effect is stronger in cities where leaders have higher political career incentives and cities with greater fiscal decentralization. Moreover, we find that land-use supervision increases the probability and scale of firms' access to government subsidies for R&D; thus, enhancing regional innovation capacity. Our findings document that China's land resource is a curse for its innovation-driven growth as it impedes local governments' fiscal incentives for R&D.     

Innovation,learning, and exporting in China: Does R&D or a technology index matter?

This paper undertakes econometric analysis of innovation, learning, and exporting in automobiles and electronics firms in China using a large-scale 2003 dataset to identify the most appropriate innovation proxy. Drawing on recent literature on innovation and learning in developing countries, it tests two alternative proxies: (i) a technology index (TI) to capture a variety of minor activities involved in using imported technologies efficiently; and (ii) the research and development (R&D)-to-sales ratio, which represents formal technological efforts to create new products and processes, often at world frontiers. A higher TI increases the probability of exporting in both industries, while the R&D-to-sales ratio was not significant. Foreign ownership, technical manpower, and the characteristics of the general manager/chief executive officer also matter. The findings suggest that China's remarkable success in the export of automobiles and electronics since initiating an open-door foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in 1978 is linked to technology transfer from multinationals; systematic investments in and upgrading of minor technological activities (like search, engineering, quality management and design); and human capital. As China's per capita income rises over time, however, formal R&D activities are likely to become more important to sustain competitiveness and technological upgrading in automobiles and electronics.     

比较优势与制造业企业全要素生产率:行业比较优势真的很重要吗

在新-新贸易理论的基础上,利用我国2002-2011年的企业微观数据,通过倾向评分匹配和倍差法,研究企业转向比较优势行业对制造业全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明：企业转向比较优势行业能够显著的提高制造业企业全要素生产率,采用不同的方法进行研究结果仍然是稳健的;从企业异质性的估计结果来看,民营企业、加工贸易为主的企业以及出口产品多样性的企业转向比较优势行业更有利于全要素生产率的提高;在企业转向比较优势行业时,全要素生产率随着出口阅历的增加而提高,但是出口强度的影响不显著;研发投入的影响不明显,但是人力资本是企业创新要素实现的决定性因素。     

中国对东盟机电产品出口贸易波动因素分解——基于恒定市场份额模型

基于UN Comtrade数据库，构建恒定市场份额（CMS）模型，分析2004—2020年中国对东盟市场机电产品出口贸易波动的影响因素。结果表明，整体竞争力效应是中国机电产品出口的主要增长动力，其次是增长效应；而具体竞争力效应限制了中国机电产品的出口增长；产品结构效应和纯二阶效应的影响在促进和抑制之间波动，但对出口增长的影响有限；动态二阶效应逐年下降至负数，对出口增长产生阻碍作用。     

基于全球价值链的中国医药制造业国际竞争力和国别依赖评估

以WIOD（世界投入产出数据库）为基础，运用WWZ全球价值链分解方法，对中国医药制造业出口增加值进行解构，并基于增加值构建显示性竞争优势指数、国别依赖度等指标，评估中国医药制造业的真实状况。评估结果表明：从竞争力看，中国医药制造业出口处于比较劣势；从国内增加值率看，呈“V”形演进态势；从影响力看，中国对下游影响度小于对上游的依赖度；从国别依赖看，中国对美国出口依赖度、上游依赖度最高，但呈逐年下降态势。     

Technological factors and total factor productivity in China: Evidence based on a panel threshold model

This study investigates the effects of technological factors, including indigenous research and development (R&D) investments, technology spillovers coming from foreign direct investments, export, and import, on China's total factor productivity (TFP). Using provincial panel data of China, covering 30 provinces over the period 2000–2014, our results confirm that indigenous R&D investments play a leading role in promoting TFP. Linear analysis suggests that, except for export, the technology spillovers through openness are beneficial for TFP growth. However, a further discussion based on a panel threshold model suggests that the different behaviours of these technology spillovers are dependent on the technological absorptive capacity affecting factors, such as human capital and indigenous R&D investments. The human capital will strengthen the spillover effects of each technology spillover. However, R&D intensity initially tends to hamper their spillover effects. Once the R&D intensity exceeds a certain level, the negative spillover effect of export on TFP tends to be alleviated, and the positive spillover effect of foreign direct investment and import on TFP will increase.     

Inter-regional difference of agricultural productivity in China: Distinction between biochemical and machinery technology

The major objective of this article is to measure the inter-regional difference in agricultural productivity of China, and then to test empirically whether or not some relevant hypotheses with respect to agricultural technology are valid. The analysis shows that biochemical (BC) technological changes account for a significant part of China's agricultural production growth. This result is consistent with the fact that China's factor endowments are characterized by abundant farm labor relative to scarce arable land. Besides, in accordance with the standard theory of market failure, the benefits accruing to BC technological development are not privately appropriable. Thus, it can be hypothesized that the inter-regional difference in BC technological attainment must be closely associated with public spending in agricultural R&E activities at a local level. The random effects model reveals that the BC technological level is high in provinces where the public sectors are seriously committed to R&E activities. In addition, the analysis lends strong support to the validity of the induced innovation hypothesis with respect to M technological progress.     

中间品进口、制度环境与出口产品质量升级

文章基于2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关进出口贸易微观匹配数据,在地区制度环境存在显著差异的背景下研究中间品进口、制度环境与对中国制造业出口产品质量之间的关系。实证研究结果表明：（1）中间品进口通过"竞争效应"、"知识溢出效应"、"中间品质量效应"以及"中间品多元化效应"机制影响企业出口产品质量,但提升效果会因企业所有制、贸易方式、中间品进口来源国、技术复杂度不同而具有显著的异质性;（2）制度环境改善一方面可以直接提升出口产品质量,另一方面强化了中间品进口对出口产品质量的提升效应,中间品进口与制度环境在影响出口产品质量方面存在互补性;（3）文章进一步从动态视角考察了进口持续期对出口产品质量的影响,研究得出二者呈现"U"型关系,短期进口无法提升出口产品质量,持续进口以及适时进入可以显著提升出口产品质量。本研究为中国出口产品国际竞争力提升,改善区域制度环境提供了理论与现实支撑。     

中国纸和纸板出口价格的影响因素分析

基于2000—2020年中国纸和纸板出口相关数据，运用多元回归模型实证分析影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的因素。研究发现，废纸进口价格、其他竞争者价格、出口集中度、汇率是影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的关键因素。对中国3类主要出口品种的异质性分析显示，箱纸板出口价格的主要影响因素为废纸进口价格、资金成本、出口集中度、汇率，涂布印刷纸出口价格受到木浆进口价格、全球涂布印刷纸需求量、对外贸易依存度、汇率的影响，包装盒纸出口价格受到废纸进口价格、对外贸易依存度、汇率、环境保护的共同影响。基于此提出提升纸和纸板出口竞争力的对策建议。     

基于SCP范式的中国新能源汽车产业发展困境分析及政策建议

运用SCP范式对中国新能源汽车产业的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效进行分析。结果表明：新能源汽车产业纯电动市场集中度、政策性进入壁垒以及产品的功能和技术创新差异化程度仍处于较低水平,以至产业内价格恶性竞争行为频频出现;新能源汽车产业规模面临难以开辟新市场的困境,并且内部资源配置低效率开始显现。最后,从产业组织理论视角提出相应的产业政策,以促进中国新能源汽车产业健康快速发展。     

The role of regional knowledge spillovers on China's innovation

The new economic geography has increased attention on the spatial dimension of knowledge spillovers and innovation. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that regional knowledge spillovers positively influence China's innovation growth from 2001 to 2008. As knowledge is subjected to spatial decay, innovation of a region is enhanced when location in neighboring regions encourages the formation of regional knowledge and information flows. Applying a spatial autoregressive model to China's provinces, the paper finds that regional knowledge spillovers have a favorable effect on design, invention and utility patents. This indicates that proximate location to innovative neighbors can help to raise the innovation capability of a province. In addition, evidence also shows that R&D expenditure and skilled personnel of research institutes and universities positively affect invention and utility patents. This suggests a favorable role for the government in enhancing indigenous innovation capability.     

Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions

The paper tries to analyze China's regional disparity in a framework of convergence in neoclassical theory of growth. We employ comparative productivity of agricultural labor as an index of labor market distortion to see the impact of difference of labor market maturity among regions on regional growth performance, controlling for a set of variables determining growth rate. The finding is that (1) there is an evidence of conditional convergence in China's growth, namely, per capita GDP in the initiative year is negatively related to growth rates in following years, (2) labor market distortion negatively impacts regional growth rates, and (3) many other variables used at previous studies impact growth performance, as is expected by neoclassical theory of growth.