Is there a CSI-leverage nexus?

We examine how various measures of consumer sentiment index (CSI) affect firms' debt policy decisions. Using U.S. firm-level quarterly data from 1993 to 2017, we provide a strong positive relationship between CSI measures and corporate debt policy, implying that firms use external borrowing during a positive economic outlook and reap the tax-shield benefit. We also find that improved household optimism over financial and business sentiments leads to future household consumption. The CSI-leverage nexus is moderated by the state of firms' financial condition, reputation, and profitability. Importantly, our results are robust to sub-sample analysis, firm-level and macroeconomic controls, econometric specifications, alternative measures of sentiment including Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (i.e., CAPE_SH), Baker and Wurgler (2006)’s stock market sentiment index (i.e., SENT_BW) and search-based uncertainty measure such as FEARS (i.e., Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search) index of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2015).     

Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks

We investigate whether and how political systems affect the financial soundness of conventional and Islamic banks. Using factors extracted from principal component analysis, we find that Islamic banks underperform their conventional counterparts in more democratic political systems but outperform them in hybrid and Sharia’a-based legal systems. The findings reflect the challenges Islamic banks face in Western countries in terms of perception, financial infrastructure, and regulatory constraints while mirroring the recognition of their specificities and their cultural and religious compliance with Sharia’a law in Muslim countries. The findings are robust to a battery of alternative estimation techniques and methods of correcting standard errors.     

Competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks

Cooperative banks are a driving force for socially committed business at the local level, accounting for around one fifth of the European Union (EU) bank deposits and loans. Despite their importance, little is known about the relationship between bank stability and competition for these small credit institutions. Does competition affect the stability of cooperative banks? Does the financial stability of banks increase/decrease when competition is higher? We assess the dynamic relationship between competition and bank soundness (both in the short and long run) among European cooperative banks between 1998 and 2009. We obtain three main results. First, we provide evidence in line with the competition-stability view proposed by Boyd and De Nicolò (2005). Bank market power negatively “Granger-causes” banks' soundness, meaning that there is a positive relationship between competition and stability. Second, we find that this fundamental relationship does not change during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Third, we show that increased homogeneity in the cooperative banking sector positively affects bank soundness. Our findings have important policy implications for designing and implementing regulations that enhance the overall stability of the financial system and in particular of the cooperative banking sector.     

A financial stability index for Colombia

The imbalances of the financial systems have showed the vast economic and social costs generated by financial instability. As a consequence, the development of stress indexes has spread as an alternative to assess the soundness of financial systems. The aim of this paper is to construct a continuous and quantifiable index with the capacity of establishing the stress level of the Colombian financial system as a function of profitability, liquidity and probability of default. Results show that the index determines effectively the stress level of the system. In addition, we performed forecasts of the financial stability index using macroeconomics variables.     

Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape Around the World

In recent years, the emergence of electronic finance—especially online banking and brokerage services, and new trading systems—has reshaped the financial landscape around the world. This paper reviews these developments and finds that they are greatly impacting the structure of and competition in financial services industries and will have a large impact on incumbents. Its assessment of how e-finance, and globalization more generally, affects countries highlights the need for changes in four financial sector policy areas—safety and soundness, competition policy, consumer and investor protection, and global public policies—to mitigate risks and reap as much as possible the potential benefits of e-finance.     

Macro-financial implications of central bank digital currencies

The considerable deployment of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is imminent, as its interest has attracted the whole world. However, CBDCs faces several political, technological, and legal challenges. We add a few more challenges that have not received much attention and summarize them in the extant literature. We then emphasize a broad version of money to examine its likely impact on financial stability. Moreover, using time series data of three leading economies and replying to past episodes’ evidence of financial innovation, the historical behaviour to incorporate the impact of CBDCs, and the velocity of circulation, we scrutinize the hypothetical influence of CBDCs on financial stability and inflation. This study employs McCallum’s policy rule based on money growth, which deals with monetary policy. Our simulations indicate that the CBDCs do not produce higher inflation while setting financial stability at risk. This study also suggests the necessary policy implications.     

Do REITs Manipulate Their Financial Results Around Seasoned Equity Offerings? Evidence from US Equity REITs

This study addresses two questions: Is there earnings management in the REIT industry around seasoned equity offerings (SEO)? How is earnings management affected by financial and governance factors? Discretionary accruals methods are used to measure earnings management. In addition, the difference between actual and calculated FFO is used to capture the potential FFO manipulation. We examine how these manipulation measures change in the five quarters around SEOs. Moreover, we investigate how a REIT’s earnings management decision is affected by its financial structure, operating style, external auditor and corporate governance. We find clear evidence of FFO manipulation around SEOs, but the extent of earnings management is relatively weaker. We find that REITs issuing SEOs more often are more aggressive in manipulating FFO than earnings. Moreover, there is a notable difference between these two types of financial results manipulation. A mean-reversion trend is found in discretionary accruals, but not for FFO manipulation. Manipulation in financial results is influenced by various factors. A diminished capability to generate cash flow, high leverage, volatile cash flow, frequent SEOs and slack corporate governance are all the features of REITs more likely to manipulate financial results.     

Securitization and financial solvency: empirical evidence from Portugal

This paper analyses the effect of securitization issues on the solvency of Portuguese financial institutions. For this purpose, we use an unbalanced panel model estimated using GMM methods and find that securitization has a slightly positive impact on the soundness of the issuing entity. We study 35 financial entities and 60 traditional securitizations issued by 9 originators between 2001 and 2013. The analysis reveals that the financial entities’ soundness improved slightly, showing that securitization enhanced the quality of the originators’ portfolios and increased the regulatory capital requirements. We also found that efficiency and profitability improve the risk-adjusted ROAA and that efficiency increases regulatory capital requirements. The robustness analysis confirms the positive effect of securitization on solvency, where both credit quality and liquidity are shown to be significant variables.     

Fiscal Decentralisation and Empowerment: Evolving Concepts and Alternative Measures*

Decentralisation reforms are among the most common and significant public sector reforms, particularly in developing and transitional countries around the world. Despite the importance of the topic to policy practitioners and academic researchers alike and the extensive empirical research on the topic, there is consensus in the literature that the measures of decentralisation that are currently used are unsatisfactory. In response, we propose an alternative measure of fiscal decentralisation based on the notion that decentralisation is more than simply the inverse of centralisation. Following Bahl (2005), we consider fiscal decentralisation as ‘the empowerment of people by the [fiscal] empowerment of their local governments’. Accordingly, we develop a measure of fiscal empowerment that allows us to quantify fiscal decentralisation as the gain in empowerment due to devolution and we analyse the proposed measures of empowerment and decentralisation for a cross‐section of developing, transitional and industrialised countries.     

International Corporate Governance and Finance: Legal,Cultural and Political Explanations

We investigate the disparity and the determinants of investor protection around the world and their impact on financial market development. More specifically, we build on Williamson's (2000) new institutional economic model to explain this disparity using legal, political and cultural variables. In 2006, the World Bank established an index to measure the disparity of investor protection regulations across 81 emerging and developed countries. Our results confirm that combining classifications based on legal systems, cultures and polities is important in explaining the disparity of investor protection and market capitalization around the world. In particular, we show that the classical regression analysis is not well suited to approach this question because it gives mitigated results. However, the mediation analysis is more cohesive with our conceptual model: we confirmed an indirect effect through a path analysis involving investor protection as a mediator of the relationship between legal systems and culture on the one hand and stock market capitalization on the other hand. Nevertheless, the polity factor was shown to have only a direct effect on stock market capitalization.     

The Dynamic Extreme Co-Movement between Chinese Stock Market and Global Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We use time-varying Symmetrized Joe-Clayton Copula model to study the extreme co-movement (boom or crash together) between the Chinese stock market and major stock markets in the world from 2007 to 2017, including developed markets and stock markets on “Belt and Road Initiative” (hereafter B.R.I.). We find that the extreme co-movement probability between Chinese market and “Belt and Road Initiative” markets is higher than developed markets at both tails. Then we study important “real” and “non-fundamental” factors affecting the excess co-movement probability, including bilateral trade openness, financial integration, and economic policy uncertainty. The results of panel regression analysis show that: the bilateral financial integration has significant effects over the lower tail dependence between Chinese and developed markets, but does not affect the extreme co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets. And the bilateral trade openness is an important factor for the extreme co-movement at both tail between Chinese and global markets. The economic policy uncertainty index, especially China’s economic policy uncertainty, plays a key role in the extreme co-movement between Chinese and developed markets at both tails. However, it has sizable effects only at the upper tail co-movement between Chinese and B.R.I. markets.     

With Economic Integration Comes Financial Contagion? Evidence from China

China's economy has maintained a rapid growth rate over the past two decades; however, its stock market has exhibited a very different level of performance during financial crises. In this paper, we try to explain this phenomenon and answer two important questions: Is there financial contagion in China? Can economic integration aggravate financial contagion? We construct a composite index of economic integration by reviewing the incremental reform and opening-up process in China's financial markets. We utilize a dynamic conditional correlation model to capture the correlations between stock returns of China and those of other important markets around the world. The empirical results provide positive evidence for the aforementioned two questions.     

Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability

According to “Schwartz's conventional wisdom” and what has been called “divine coincidence”, price stability should imply macroeconomic and financial stability. However, in light of the global financial crisis, with monetary policy focused on price stability, scholars have held that banking and financial risks were largely unaddressed. According to this alternative view, the belief in divine coincidence turns out to be benign neglect. The objective of this paper is to test Schwartz's hypothesis against the benign neglect hypothesis. The priority assigned to the inflation goal is proxied by the central banks’ conservatism (CBC) index proposed by Levieuge and Lucotte (2014), here extended to a large sample of 73 countries from 1980 to 2012. Banking sector vulnerability is measured by six alternative indicators that are frequently employed in the literature on early warning systems. Our results indicate that differences in monetary policy preferences robustly explain cross-country differences in banking vulnerability and validate the benign neglect hypothesis, in that a higher level of CBC implies a more vulnerable banking sector.     

International house price cycles,monetary policy and credit

We evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections: anticipated tightenings of monetary policy, deviations of house prices from fundamentals, and rapid credit growth. A new cross-country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time-varying risk premiums is constructed. House price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model. The variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market’s forecast of higher policy rates. The estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals. In contrast to the financial crisis literature, credit growth is less important. All of these variables help forecast recessions.     

Does environmental labeling exacerbate heavily polluting firms’ financial constraints? Evidence from China

The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection has enacted an environmental policy that restricts the investment activities of heavily polluting firms by increasing their financial constraints. In this paper, we examine the impact of environmental labeling on firms’ financial constraints. We document that the financial constraints of heavily polluting firms increase more than those of other firms after the issuance of environmental labeling. The debt and equity financing channels of heavily polluting firms are restricted, with smaller bank loans and less equity issuance in the future. The effect is stronger in firms that make a smaller contribution to the local government’s gross domestic product, receive greater media coverage, and are located in heavily polluted provinces. The environmental regulation is effective in increasing the environmentally friendly practices and decreasing the performance growth of heavily polluting firms. Our findings not only contribute to the growing literature on the factors influencing financial constraints, identifying the effects of non-monetary factors on financial constraints, but also provide more evidence for the underlying mechanism of efficient environmental policy. Our results also provide practical suggestions for investors and institutions on evaluating firms and for regulatory authorities on further implementing environmental policy.     

Forecasting the price of gold using dynamic model averaging

We develop several models to examine possible predictors of the return of gold, which embrace six global factors (business cycle, nominal, interest rate, commodity, exchange rate and stock price) extracted from a recursive principal component analysis (PCA) and two uncertainty and stress indices (the Kansas City Fed's financial stress index and the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index). Specifically, by comparing alternative predictive models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform linear models (such as the random walk) as well as the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model. The DMS is the best predictive model overall across all forecast horizons. Generally, all the predictors show strong predictive power at one time or another though at varying magnitudes, while the exchange rate factor and the Kansas City Fed's financial stress index appear to be strong at almost all horizons and sub-periods. However, the forecasting prowess of the exchange rate is supreme.     

Depositors’ trust: Some empirical evidence from Indonesia

We develop a comprehensive index, based on Robbins and Judge’s (2008) five dimensions of trust, to measure depositors’ trust in individual banks as well as trust in the banking industry and financial safety net. Using a survey of 992 retail depositors in Indonesia, we find that trust in individual banks where depositors save their money is greater than trust in the overall banking industry and financial safety net. We also find that depositors’ trust is affected by personal characteristics—for instance, women and older depositors have relatively less trust. Depositors tend to put their trust in individual banks and the financial system if they have greater trust in information conveyed by the government. Religious and economic values have positive effects on depositors’ trust at both the micro and macro levels. Our results also document that risk-taking behavior is positively associated with depositors’ trust. Furthermore, we find that more-educated depositors have significantly less trust. This finding might imply that the erosion of market discipline by depositors in a country with relatively generous deposit insurance, such as Indonesia, can be mitigated through greater financial literacy.     

Can financial literacy reduce anxiety about life in old age?

This study examines the role of financial literacy in reducing anxiety about life in old age. We hypothesize that financial literacy increases preparedness for old age through better savings and investment decisions, leading to the accumulation of more assets and earning more income, which enhances financial capacity and reduces anxiety. Using data from a nationwide panel survey in Japan, we provide evidence that financial literacy can reduce anxiety about life in old age by making people capable of accumulating more assets and earning more income. Moreover, the interaction of financial literacy with age and spouse reduces anxiety, while living with children increases anxiety about life during old age. We check the robustness of our results using an alternative measure of financial literacy, changing composition of the sample, controlling for residents’ geographical dispersion, and testing for endogeneity bias. The major findings remain unchanged after considering these factors.     

Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange

In this paper we assess if the financial market liberalization introduced in the beginning of the 1990s in Greece has changed the degree of market development (efficiency) by studying time-varying global Hurst exponents. Our results suggest that changes in financial market liberalization have important positive implications on the degree of development of stock markets. These results have important policy implications for the development of stock markets around the world.     

Tailored financial literacy education: An indigenous perspective

Governments around the world agree that financial literacy education (FLE) is of the utmost importance, with the current economic times having led to a ‘teachable moment’ for financial education. However, caution should be taken when viewing education as the sole solution to the world’s economic problems as there is little evidence to support a causal link between FLE and financial behaviour/decision making. Furthermore, others conclude that FLE is not a single, value-neutral curriculum, and thus current approaches must recognise gender and cultural differences. This article examines the usefulness of mainstream FLE programmes adapted to suit Indigenous communities in terms of the delivery model, the content and the logistics of the programmes. This is achieved by examining the outcomes of four FLE programmes run in Indigenous communities and explores the need for diverse approaches to be applied to FLE in this context. We find that contextualised FLE based on an experiential group-learning model provides self-reported benefits to the participants. We also report on a range of practical issues that arise in Indigenous FLE. Finally, we recommend the exploration of sustainable FLE based on these principles.