How does news sentiment affect the states of Japanese stock return volatility?

This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility.     

Risk sentiment and firms’ liquidity in the French market

This paper investigates the impact of risk sentiment on market liquidity by using panel data. We use six risk word lists; uncertain, weak model, negative, legal, opportunity, and environmental & social responsibility word lists to measure the risk sentiment. Concerning the liquidity proxies, we use three measures, quoted spread, effective spread, and adverse selection component. The results indicate that an intensive risk tone and uncertain information in annual reports lead to decreased liquidity. In addition we find that risk sentiment variable impacts the liquidity but not vice versa.     

Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Building on the investment-based asset pricing framework, we show that firms' ability to timely scale down their operations reduces the sensitivity of their equity value to large adverse productivity shocks. Using U.S. data in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our model's predictions. Real flexibility curbs losses in firm value and reduces return volatility, especially for firms with high book-to-market or high COVID-19 exposure, consistent with the idea that the benefits of real flexibility are associated primarily with contraction options during the COVID-19 crisis. Our analysis shows that real flexibility provides incremental and complementary protection beyond financial flexibility. Besides its impact on stock prices, real flexibility also helps firms sustain earnings during 2020, compared with 2019 when the pandemic had not struck. Our work demonstrates that real flexibility is an important tool for corporate managers in navigating episodes of disasters.     

How do firms learn? Evidence from corporate cash holdings during the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine the impact of COVID-19 on US corporate cash holdings. Our findings suggest that greater pandemic exposure is associated with higher corporate cash holdings and that firms learn from prior experiences as they manage their cash policies. More specifically, the level of cash holdings in firms that experienced severe financial constraints during the 2008 credit crisis and firms with prior severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 exposure is significantly lower than that of firms with no prior epidemic or financial constraints experience. Overall, our findings support the learning behaviour of cash and contribute to corporate cash holdings literature by providing insights on the extent to which firms learn from prior experiences to manage their liquidity.     

Does technology-seeking OFDI improve the productivity of Chinese firms under the COVID-19 pandemic?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of technology-seeking outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on firms' productivity under the influence of negative external shocks, taking as a sample the investment data of Chinese firms before and during COVID-19. The results show that technology-seeking OFDI improves productivity, but not under negative external shocks. The dampening effect of such shocks is more significant when the host country is a developed country and in firms with multiple branches. Technology-seeking OFDI particularly improves the productivity of research and development and processing firms, and (among the productivity measures tested) most prominently affects total factor productivity.     

How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?

As a once-in-a-century global pandemic, COVID-19 severely hit the global economy and disrupted the worldwide supply chain. Based on 505 Chinese firms, we use the event study method to explore the effect of COVID-19 on the financial performance of firms. The findings show that COVID-19 has an immediate impact on Chinese firms. Hubei firms experience stronger effects than non-Hubei firms. Supply chain disruptions effects from COVID-19 are observed. Transportation industry is hit more severely than retail industry. Insurance companies experience a strong adverse effect. On the other hand, both medical and competitor firms experience significantly positive spillover effects.     

How does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies?

We investigate the impact of 19 announcements of environmental regulation on the equities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange over the period 2005–2011. Using a well-established event study methodology, we assess whether these announcements are value constructive or destructive for equity investors. Additionally, we estimate the change in systematic risk following the announcements. Our results show that the Australian market was particularly sensitive to the carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) announcement. A cumulative abnormal return of −31% was recorded in the alternative energy sector after Australia submitted its target range to the Copenhagen Accord. We observe that a move towards a greener nation has a mixed effect on abnormal returns with apparent sector-by-sector differences. Green policies appear to affect the long-term systematic risk of industries, leading to the diamond risk phenomenon.     

The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets?

We compare the performance of safe-haven assets during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. First, regarding the GFC, we find, intermediate (weak) safe haven evidence for US dollar, Swiss franc and T-bonds (Gold, Silver and T-bills). Second, with regard to COVID, we find gold is very risky in some settings, while silver has become extremely risky. Collectively, our findings suggest that the character of safe-haven assets has changed between the crises. Therefore, investors should exercise extreme care when investing in potential safe-haven assets during times of market stress.     

Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?

This paper investigates the impact of the US-China Trade War on co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets. It particularly examines the time-varying stock market co-movement between the United States and China at market level, as well as at sector level, over the period from 3rd January 2017 to 23rd January 2020. The ‘event study’ analysis is employed to investigate the effect of US-China trade disputes news on co-movement dynamics, and the news announcement effects before and after the official start of the US-China Trade War (regarded as 6th July 2018) are examined separately in light of this phenomenon. We also identify structural breaks and spillover patterns of cross-market co-movements during different phases. The results indicate that co-movements amongst mainland China, Hong Kong and US stock markets are positively affected by news releases and, after 6th July 2018, are enhanced significantly. More precisely, there is also empirical evidence of positive announcement effects in stock market co-movements between the US and mainland China in specific sectors (particularly, Industrials and Information Technology). For international investors, this evidence suggests that the US-China Trade War has reduced the benefit of portfolio diversification in managing risk.     

Does social network sentiment influence the relationship between the S&P 500 and gold returns?

This study explored the relationship between investor sentiment (extracted from the StockTwits social network), the S&P 500 Index and gold returns. We investigated bilateral causality between gold prices and S&P 500 prices, the power of investor sentiment and gold returns to predict S&P 500 returns, and the influence of gold returns on S&P 500 volatility. We also considered whether the influence of sentiment varies according to the user's degree of experience. We considered the sentiment of messages that mentioned the S&P 500 Index and that users posted between 2012 and 2016. Granger causality analysis, ARIMA models and GARCH models were used for predicting S&P 500 Index returns and S&P 500 volatility. We observed a causal relationship between gold price and the S&P 500 Index. Our results also suggest that sentiment and gold returns predict S&P 500 Index returns. Finally, we observed that gold returns influence S&P 500 volatility and that the sentiment of experienced users affects S&P 500 returns.     

The relationship between pension funds and the stock market: Does the aging population of Europe affect it?

In recent decades, pension fund investment has increased rapidly because of population aging and growing doubts about the viability of western public pension systems. As a result, pension funds have become dominant in stock markets. This paper examines the influence of the pension fund assets invested in equities on stock market development and the market efficiency of 13 European countries, from 1999 to 2014. Our results vary by country, by pension model and among the one-model countries. Nevertheless, revealing a concern about saving for retirement. Finally, our efficiency analysis reveals that the influence of pension funds varies over time and across markets, due to arbitrage opportunities that provoke adaptive managerial strategies.     

Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

The debate over how firm stakeholder engagement is tied to preserving shareholder wealth has received growing attention in recent years, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Against this backdrop, we examine the relation between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and stock market returns during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced market crash and the post-crash recovery. Using a sample of 1750 U.S. firms and two major sources of CSR ratings, we find no evidence that CSR affected stock returns during the crash period. This result is robust to various sensitivity tests. In additional cross-sectional analysis, we find some supporting evidence, albeit weak, that the relation between CSR and stock returns during the pandemic-related crisis is more positive when CSR is congruent with a firm's institutional environment. We also find that Business Roundtable companies, which committed to protecting stakeholder interests prior to the pandemic, do not outperform during the pandemic crisis. We conclude that pre-crisis CSR is not effective at shielding shareholder wealth from the adverse effects of a crisis, suggesting a potential disconnect between firms' CSR orientation (ratings) and actual actions. Our evidence suggests that investors can distinguish between genuine CSR and firms engaging in cheap talk.     

Does the investment horizon of institutional investors matter for stock liquidity?

This paper examines the role of the investment horizon of institutional investors on stock liquidity of firms. We show that an increase in long-term institutional ownership is negatively associated with firm liquidity, while an increase in short-term ownership is positively related to a firm's stock liquidity. We identify the ownership-liquidity relationship by examining two major channels: the trading activity channel and the informational friction channel. Long-term investors reduce stock liquidity through low frequency trading and access to value-enhancing and private information, which induces adverse selection bias. In contrast, short-term investors improve liquidity through trading activity and competition with other investors, which lowers transaction costs. Our findings further suggest that the effects of an increase in long-term (short-term) institutional investors on liquidity weaken (strengthen) when a firm has more publicly available information. Finally, we show that the positive impact of an increase in long-term ownership on valuation is more pronounced for firms with higher liquidity and the valuation effect is persistent.     

Does online interaction between firms and investors reduce stock price crash risk?

This paper examines how online interaction between firm management and investors impacts stock price crash risk. Based on the previous literature, we postulate that online interaction constrains crash risk via two channels, i.e., deterring bad news hoarding activities of managers and decreasing differences of opinion among investors. Relying on the launch of Hudongyi (the first official investor relations management platform in the world) for identification, we demonstrate that online firm-investor interaction significantly reduces future stock price crash risk and that these two channels can both explain this effect. Overall, our findings highlight the important role of online interaction in risk management.     

The COVID-19 pandemic: How important is face-to-face interaction for information dissemination?

Does face-to-face interaction still facilitate information transfer despite proliferating communication technologies? We use the COVID-19 collapse in such interactions to examine their influence on information flow in the stock market around earnings announcements. Using daily, county-level abnormal mobility of U.S. residents to proxy for face-to-face interaction, we find that firms located in counties with lower abnormal mobility experience a weaker immediate price reaction to earnings announcements and a larger post-announcement drift. Our findings suggest that lower face-to-face interactions dampen price discovery in financial markets, and that investor attention is a potential mechanism of this effect.     

COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on the US service sector. Results from four industry indexes (hotels, entertainment, restaurants and airlines) indicate that conditional correlations among index pairs exhibited substantial increases. Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) tests in dynamic conditional correlations show that while the relationship between airlines and entertainment venues is unstable, restaurants and hotels demonstrate stable co-movement. Markov regime-switching regression analysis suggests the pandemic is affecting mainly the entertainment and airline industries, with gradual deterioration in the hotel industry, led by small-market-cap companies. However, we see no evidence of a negative impact on the restaurant industry from the pandemic in our analysis period. This may be related to Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Based on our results, we recommend employment of effective working capital and supply chain management methods in the service sector to streamline the operations of affected companies. In addition, all other sectors should utilize appropriate methods of risk measurement and should take 'Black Swans' into account to incorporate a more accurate probability of unexpected events.     

Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic

The paper examines the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts this spillover. Based on the TVP-VAR approach, we find evidence of spillover effects among currencies, which increased widely during the pandemic. In addition, results suggest that almost all cryptocurrencies remain as “safe-haven” tools against market uncertainty during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, comparative analysis shows that the total connectedness for cryptocurrencies is lower than for traditional currencies during the crisis. Further analysis using quantile regression suggests that EPU exerts an impact on the total and the net spillovers with different degrees across currencies and this impact is affected by the health crisis. Our findings have important policy implications for policymakers, investors, and international traders.     

Is there a symmetric nonlinear causal relationship between large and small firms?

This paper uses both linear and nonlinear causality tests to reexamine the causal relationship between the returns on large and small firms. Consistent with previous results, we find that large firms linearly lead small firms. We also find a significant linear causality in the direction from small firms to large firms, particularly in the more recent time period where the impact from small firms to large firms is greater than from large to small. More important, in contrast to the received literature, we find significant nonlinear causality that is bi-directional and of the same duration in either direction. Using the BEKK asymmetric GARCH model we are able to capture most of the detected nonlinear relationship. This indicates that volatility spillovers are largely responsible for the observed nonlinear Granger causality.     

Gold or Bitcoin,which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study compares the dynamic spillover effects of gold and Bitcoin prices on the oil and stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic via time-varying parameter vector autoregression. Both time-varying and time-point results indicate that gold is a safe haven for oil and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, unlike gold, Bitcoin's response is the opposite, rejecting the safe haven property. Further analysis shows that the safe-haven effects of gold on the stock market become stronger when the pandemic critically spreads.