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In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data. 相似文献
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Nikolas Rokkanen 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2009,23(1):31-57
The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume
that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds
issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15
basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical
models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of
the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets
for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.
相似文献
Nikolas RokkanenEmail: |
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A growing number of papers have applied option pricing techniques to the valuation of risky debt. This paper deals directly with how a firm's relationship to interest rates affects its debt. A sequential binomial model is used to price the zero-coupon bonds of a firm whose value is related to interest rate changes.The results show that the strength of the relationship between firm value and interest rates (interest-rate risk) can have a significant impact on the value of a firm's debt. The model produces its most powerful results when the volatility of firm value is high and the term structure has a steep (negative or positive) slope; there is no impact when the term structure is flat. Our results indicate that empirical studies of yield spreads may have severe shortcomings if the relationship of firm value to interest rate changes is ignored. 相似文献
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Paul A. Griffin 《Accounting & Finance》2014,54(3):847-883
The market for credit default swaps has developed into a well‐functioning, global multi‐trillion dollar market, wherein investors price and transfer corporate financial instruments on the basis of credit risk. This paper first summarizes the structure and growth of the market. Next, I introduce theory and evidence on how investors price credits risk and explain how the quality of financial statement information plays a unique role in the determination of credit spread. I then review the nascent empirical accounting literature on this topic. This review sheds light on several accounting research questions that might be understood better in the setting of the credit default swap market. The final section summarizes suggestions for future work. 相似文献
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Jens Dick-Nielsen 《Journal of Financial Economics》2012,103(3):471-492
We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds. 相似文献
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In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors. 相似文献
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Guillaume Coqueret 《Quantitative Finance》2020,20(9):1531-1551
This paper quantifies the impact of stock-specific news sentiment on future financial returns. Daily predictive regressions yield significant t-statistics for 7% at most of our sample of more than 1000 large stocks listed in the USA. While a few assets do run through pockets of predictability, the evidence suggests that the feedback effect is stronger in the reverse direction: returns are more likely to drive future sentiment than the other way around. 相似文献
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债券融资发展中的信用评级 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
马丽娟 《中央财经大学学报》2003,(10):46-50
信用评级与债券融资相伴而生,并促进了债券融资的发展。从我国资本市场发展的趋势看,无论从客观要求还是完善信用评级自身之需要,加强我国信用评级的建设都极为重要。本从信用评级产生发展的角度,探讨信用评级在债券融资发展中的作用。 相似文献
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Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices. 相似文献
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The relationship between credit risk and the pricing of local government bonds in China is explored in this paper. The pricing of local government bonds was found to reflect credit risk, but the risk premium was small. The type of bond (‘directional’ or ‘non-directional’) significantly affected pricing. Repayment source had no effect. The authors make recommendations for the central government, local governments and investors. 相似文献
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We develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework which unifies the valuation of corporate liabilities, credit derivatives, and equity derivatives. We assume that the stock price follows a diffusion, punctuated by a possible jump to zero (default). To capture the positive link between default and equity volatility, we assume that the hazard rate of default is an increasing affine function of the instantaneous variance of returns on the underlying stock. To capture the negative link between volatility and stock price, we assume a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) specification for the instantaneous stock volatility prior to default. We show that deterministic changes of time and scale reduce our stock price process to a standard Bessel process with killing. This reduction permits the development of completely explicit closed form solutions for risk-neutral survival probabilities, CDS spreads, corporate bond values, and European-style equity options. Furthermore, our valuation model is sufficiently flexible so that it can be calibrated to exactly match arbitrarily given term structures of CDS spreads, interest rates, dividend yields, and at-the-money implied volatilities. 相似文献
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优化我国债券市场结构的对策研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
近几年来,作为我国资本市场重要组成部分的债券市场取得了长足的进步,但是随着我国加入WTO后利率市场化的推行,债券市场结构失衡的问题日益成为制约我国债券市场进一步发展的瓶颈。本就我国1981年以来有关债券市场的运行情况,在对形成我国债券市场结构失衡的诸多因素进行详细分析的基础上,提出了我国债券市场结构优化调整的应对策略。 相似文献
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This study investigates the corporate risk‐taking and the performance consequences at different stages of the firm life cycle. We find that risk‐taking is higher in the introduction and decline stages of the life cycle, but lower in the growth and mature stages. We also find that risk‐taking during introduction and decline stage (growth and maturity stage) affects future performance adversely (positively). We also document that managerial risk‐taking propensities increase during periods of high investor sentiment and firms in different life cycle stages respond to sentiment differently. Collectively, these results suggest that the firm life cycle has explanatory power for corporate risk‐taking behaviour. 相似文献
15.
Rossella Agliardi 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(5):749-762
An exact valuation formula for defaultable corporate coupon bonds is proved. The model incorporates discrete coupons, bankruptcy costs, taxes and the market risk generated by a stochastic risk-free structure. The aim of this paper is twofold: first, we generalise previous pricing models for corporate bonds; second, we provide a comprehensive formula in order to properly disentangle the contribution of several risk factors to credit spreads. 相似文献
16.
我国信用债定价与成熟市场国家信用债定价存在显著差异,并未随着经济周期运行中违约风险的变化而产生明显调整。研究发现,我国市场主体普遍存在对信用债刚性兑付的预期,且倾向于采用信用债进行套利交易,这种行为导致信用债信用利差更多体现的是市场流动性溢价,而非信用风险溢价,因而反映市场流动性状况的货币市场利率水平、波动性对信用债定价具有较为重要的影响,而模糊了对手方信用的中央对手方的质押回购制度安排进一步强化了这种影响。 相似文献
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To investigate the complex interactions between market events and investor sentiment, we employ a multivariate Hawkes process to evaluate dynamic effects among four types of distinct events: positive returns, negative returns, positive sentiment, and negative sentiment. Using both intraday S&P 500 return data and Thomson Reuters News sentiment data from 2008 to 2014, we find: (a) self-excitation is strong for all four types of events at 15 min time scale; (b) there is a significant mutual-excitation between positive returns and positive sentiment and negative returns and negative sentiment; (c) decay of return events is almost twice as fast as sentiment events, which means market prices move faster than investor sentiment changes; (d) positive sentiment shocks tend to generate negative price jumps; and (e) the cross-excitation between positive and negative sentiments is stronger than their self-excitation. These findings provide further understanding of investor sentiment and its intricate interactions with market returns. 相似文献
18.
构筑我国商业银行现代化信贷风险管理体系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
裘清 《中央财经大学学报》2002,(4):30-33
文章从完善信贷管理组织结构入手 ,遵循系统性原则、权责一致原则和效率原则 ,建议对我国商业银行内部信贷组织构架应作具体的调整 :建立“信贷政策决策委员会”、完善“贷款审批制”、建立“信贷执行官负责制”和“成立风险检查部门”。在此基础上加强其他四项措施的落实 ,从而对我国商业银行信贷风险就能得到有效的控制 相似文献
19.
This paper examines a recent financial innovation in corporate bond contracts, referred to as the clawback provision. A clawback provision in debt contracts gives the issuer an option to redeem a specified fraction of the bond issue within a specified period at a predetermined price and with funds that must come from a subsequent equity offering. We argue that issuers use clawback provisions to mitigate the wealth losses that would otherwise occur when new equity is offered. Consistent with the hypotheses, the evidence shows that bond offerings are more likely to include a clawback provision if their issuers are private, have more intangible assets, have fewer liquid assets, and are unregulated. We also estimate the price of clawback provisions and find that yield spreads on bonds with clawback provisions are a median of 86 basis points higher relative to what they otherwise would be. 相似文献
20.
Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers to the Capital Market: Practical Implications of 40 Years of Research
This paper gives an extensive overview on the avenues academic research has taken in exploring the role of credit ratings. In doing so, it relies on a strict methodological approach for the collection and evaluation of relevant studies to address the criticisms on the lack of profoundness in prior literature reviews in business research. It provides therefore to both academics and practitioners an exhaustive compendium on the role and relevance of credit ratings for each key stakeholder over the past 40 years. Second, it pinpoints specifically to how credit ratings impact corporate strategy. In this matter, it suggests to focus on this underresearched aspect in future as it has become a critical factor in the decision‐making of company boards. 相似文献