基于信用利差的中国城投债券信用风险分析

在\"四万亿\"投资的推动下,中国城投债券的发行规模大幅增加。与此同时,城投公司的整体债务规模也急剧攀升,其债务总量超过了地方政府的财政收入水平,城投公司的整体信用水平不容乐观。因此,城投债券的信用风险需引起足够重视。本文从量化角度研究了影响中国城投债券信用风险的四个因素,结果显示,中国城投债券的信用利差与发债企业的资产规模以及发债企业所在地区的人均GDP水平负相关,与企业债券收益率以及担保正相关。     

Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables

In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data.     

Lemmings in the bond market? An empirical analysis of the term structure of credit spreads

The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15 basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.

The Effect of Interest Rates on the Value of Corporate Assets and the Risk Premia of Corporate Debt

A growing number of papers have applied option pricing techniques to the valuation of risky debt. This paper deals directly with how a firm's relationship to interest rates affects its debt. A sequential binomial model is used to price the zero-coupon bonds of a firm whose value is related to interest rate changes.The results show that the strength of the relationship between firm value and interest rates (interest-rate risk) can have a significant impact on the value of a firm's debt. The model produces its most powerful results when the volatility of firm value is high and the term structure has a steep (negative or positive) slope; there is no impact when the term structure is flat. Our results indicate that empirical studies of yield spreads may have severe shortcomings if the relationship of firm value to interest rate changes is ignored.     

The market for credit default swaps: new insights into investors' use of accounting information?

The market for credit default swaps has developed into a well‐functioning, global multi‐trillion dollar market, wherein investors price and transfer corporate financial instruments on the basis of credit risk. This paper first summarizes the structure and growth of the market. Next, I introduce theory and evidence on how investors price credits risk and explain how the quality of financial statement information plays a unique role in the determination of credit spread. I then review the nascent empirical accounting literature on this topic. This review sheds light on several accounting research questions that might be understood better in the setting of the credit default swap market. The final section summarizes suggestions for future work.     

Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis

We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

债券融资发展中的信用评级

信用评级与债券融资相伴而生，并促进了债券融资的发展。从我国资本市场发展的趋势看，无论从客观要求还是完善信用评级自身之需要，加强我国信用评级的建设都极为重要。本从信用评级产生发展的角度，探讨信用评级在债券融资发展中的作用。     

Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.     

Credit risk and bond pricing of local government in China

The relationship between credit risk and the pricing of local government bonds in China is explored in this paper. The pricing of local government bonds was found to reflect credit risk, but the risk premium was small. The type of bond (‘directional’ or ‘non-directional’) significantly affected pricing. Repayment source had no effect. The authors make recommendations for the central government, local governments and investors.     

A jump to default extended CEV model: an application of Bessel processes

We develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework which unifies the valuation of corporate liabilities, credit derivatives, and equity derivatives. We assume that the stock price follows a diffusion, punctuated by a possible jump to zero (default). To capture the positive link between default and equity volatility, we assume that the hazard rate of default is an increasing affine function of the instantaneous variance of returns on the underlying stock. To capture the negative link between volatility and stock price, we assume a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) specification for the instantaneous stock volatility prior to default. We show that deterministic changes of time and scale reduce our stock price process to a standard Bessel process with killing. This reduction permits the development of completely explicit closed form solutions for risk-neutral survival probabilities, CDS spreads, corporate bond values, and European-style equity options. Furthermore, our valuation model is sufficiently flexible so that it can be calibrated to exactly match arbitrarily given term structures of CDS spreads, interest rates, dividend yields, and at-the-money implied volatilities.     

优化我国债券市场结构的对策研究

近几年来,作为我国资本市场重要组成部分的债券市场取得了长足的进步,但是随着我国加入WTO后利率市场化的推行,债券市场结构失衡的问题日益成为制约我国债券市场进一步发展的瓶颈。本就我国1981年以来有关债券市场的运行情况,在对形成我国债券市场结构失衡的诸多因素进行详细分析的基础上,提出了我国债券市场结构优化调整的应对策略。     

Firm life cycle,corporate risk‐taking and investor sentiment

This study investigates the corporate risk‐taking and the performance consequences at different stages of the firm life cycle. We find that risk‐taking is higher in the introduction and decline stages of the life cycle, but lower in the growth and mature stages. We also find that risk‐taking during introduction and decline stage (growth and maturity stage) affects future performance adversely (positively). We also document that managerial risk‐taking propensities increase during periods of high investor sentiment and firms in different life cycle stages respond to sentiment differently. Collectively, these results suggest that the firm life cycle has explanatory power for corporate risk‐taking behaviour.     

信用风险溢价还是市场流动性溢价:基于中国信用债定价的实证研究

我国信用债定价与成熟市场国家信用债定价存在显著差异,并未随着经济周期运行中违约风险的变化而产生明显调整。研究发现,我国市场主体普遍存在对信用债刚性兑付的预期,且倾向于采用信用债进行套利交易,这种行为导致信用债信用利差更多体现的是市场流动性溢价,而非信用风险溢价,因而反映市场流动性状况的货币市场利率水平、波动性对信用债定价具有较为重要的影响,而模糊了对手方信用的中央对手方的质押回购制度安排进一步强化了这种影响。     

构筑我国商业银行现代化信贷风险管理体系

文章从完善信贷管理组织结构入手 ,遵循系统性原则、权责一致原则和效率原则 ,建议对我国商业银行内部信贷组织构架应作具体的调整 :建立“信贷政策决策委员会”、完善“贷款审批制”、建立“信贷执行官负责制”和“成立风险检查部门”。在此基础上加强其他四项措施的落实 ,从而对我国商业银行信贷风险就能得到有效的控制     

Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers to the Capital Market: Practical Implications of 40 Years of Research

This paper gives an extensive overview on the avenues academic research has taken in exploring the role of credit ratings. In doing so, it relies on a strict methodological approach for the collection and evaluation of relevant studies to address the criticisms on the lack of profoundness in prior literature reviews in business research. It provides therefore to both academics and practitioners an exhaustive compendium on the role and relevance of credit ratings for each key stakeholder over the past 40 years. Second, it pinpoints specifically to how credit ratings impact corporate strategy. In this matter, it suggests to focus on this underresearched aspect in future as it has become a critical factor in the decision‐making of company boards.