Shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and the information content of stock prices

In recent years, corporate investment rate has been declining, and they have been allocating financial capital to the shadow credit market, which lead to accumulation of financial risks. Based on the annual data of non-financial listed companies from 2007 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of non-financial companies’ shadow banking on the information content of stock prices. Results show that shadow banking of non-financial enterprises reduce the information content of stock price, and the above effects are more significant in regions with lower social trust and higher policy uncertainty, private enterprises, and enterprises without political connection. Enterprises engage in shadow banking can impact idiosyncratic information content of stock price through channels of earning management, irrational investor behavior, creditor risk concerns and informed trading; Analysts over-optimism and insider trading can also have an impact on the relationship between shadow banking activities and synchronization of stock price. This paper analyzes economic consequences of non-financial enterprises’ shadow banking activities, thus providing important theoretical support and policy guidance for enhancing signal mechanism of securities market, improving capital market efficiency of resource allocation, deepening financial market-oriented reforms.     

Listing and financial constraints

We confirm, with a twist, that listing to a stock exchange can mitigate financial constraints of firms, using Japanese firm-level data of 20 years, 1995–2014, controlling for the main-bank relationship and majority owner influence. Compared to a similar unlisted firm, a listed firm has a lower marginal product of capital on average and more new borrowings during recessions. Theoretically, we argue that these are the key pieces of evidence that indicate less tight financial constraints for the listed firms than the unlisted firms. However, the listed firms do not borrow more on average over time. They rather maintain a lower leverage so that they can mitigate the borrowing constraints. We also find that the listed firms do not face lower interest rates.     

宏观经济不确定性、融资约束与企业现金持有行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文建立一个简化的存货缓冲模型来形式化管理者的现金持有决策,并基于中国非金融类上市公司2001-2009年间的面板数据,考察不同融资约束条件下宏观经济不确定性对企业现金持有行为的影响。研究发现,宏观经济不确定性对企业的现金持有水平具有显著的正向影响;相比于低融资约束的公司,高融资约束公司的现金持有水平对宏观经济不确定性变化具有更高的敏感性。研究结果有助于增进对中国制度情境下企业流动性需求行为的理解。     

制度环境、影子银行参与与企业投资效率

已有文献已对影子银行做了大量的宏观视角研究,微观视角的研究相对较少,尚未有影子银行影响微观效率的研究。为此,分析企业参与影子银行活动对其投资效率的影响以及制度环境的调节作用。研究发现,制度环境水平与企业投资效率存在着显著的正相关关系,企业所处地区的制度环境越好,企业投资回报率越高;从投融资视角研究发现,上市公司参与影子银行融资和影子银行投资程度均与投资效率显著正相关。制度环境越好,影子银行参与对提升投资效率的作用越突出。     

Banking in the Shadows: A Comparative Study of China and India

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the rise of shadow banking in China and India. In this paper, we aim to get a better understanding of the differences in trends and investigate the factors leading to the increase of shadow banking in these two major emerging economies. We find that financial exclusion is a common factor leading to the growth of shadow banking in both countries. While financial reform has taken place in India, financially repressive policies still prevail in China. Although several regulatory measures have been adopted in India and China, the size of the shadow banking sector in these two countries remains underestimated. Thus, streamlining and enhancing data collection is a key priority for both nations. We argue that regulation in both countries should be more activity focused (specific field in which a shadow bank is focused on) rather than sector or entity based, and it should be at par with banks. The shadow banks provide last mile connectivity to remote, distant, and ignored segments of the population not serviced by the formal financial sector. As this enhances financial inclusion, a balanced approach is required keeping in view both costs and benefits of the shadow banking system.     

Financial constraints and corporate investment in Asian countries

This study overcomes the analytic shortcomings of the linear investment models and applies a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to examine the investment ratios of 519 non-financial listed firms in six Asian countries over the period of 1991–2004. We find that investment-cash flow sensitivities vary across firms in the sample countries. Additionally, our findings also show that investment-cash flow sensitivity has also been affected by the business cycle in these countries. Furthermore, we find new evidence that tangible assets play a significant role in explaining the increase (decrease) in the investment-cash flow sensitivities for South and East Asian countries. These results imply that possession of the tangible assets increases debt capacity, which in turn reduces under-investment. These new findings have significant implications for financing and investment choices of the firms in the sample countries.     

我国影子银行对银行业系统性风险影响研究——基于内生化房地产商的DSGE模型分析

近年来我国房价的持续上涨促使大量资金借道影子银行体系流向房地产市场,推动了金融体系内系统性风险的集聚。有鉴于此,文章构建了内生化房地产商的DSGE模型,以此探讨影子银行对银行业系统性风险的影响。实证结果表明,影子银行融资利差增大、房地产需求的扩张以及紧缩的货币政策冲击均会使商业银行资金向影子银行转移,促使融资杠杆率提升,加大银行业系统性风险;因此,目前我国稳健中性的货币政策,能够合理引导预期稳定房价,有利于防控系统性金融风险。然而,在紧缩性货币政策冲击下,商业银行贷款利率随着影子银行融资利率的下降而出现下降,说明影子银行的存在一定程度上造成了货币政策传导机制的失效。文章研究结论对引导我国影子银行健康发展、防范系统性金融风险具有重要政策启示。     

上市促进了企业创新吗?——来自创业板制造业企业的经验证据

本研究利用手工收集的2009-2013年在创业板市场申请上市的制造业企业样本以及企业创新专利变量,经过对成功上市企业与终止上市企业的样本匹配,运用双重差分模型考察了上市是否促进我国创业板制造业企业创新,研究结果表明,上市显著促进了企业专利创新。进一步地,我们探讨了上市促进企业创新的机制,结果发现,上市通过改善融资约束显著促进了企业创新,而上市没能通过影响代理问题作用于企业创新。该结果意味着直接金融发展有助于推动企业创新;资本市场的风险分担及融资机制能够降低企业融资约束、进而促进企业创新。这不仅为直接金融促进企业创新提供了新的证据,也为我国进一步发展与完善资本市场,进而促进经济转型、创新发展提供了新的政策启示。     

Leverage, performance and capital adequacy ratio in Taiwan's banking industry

We examine the relation between firms’ financial structures and their risky investment strategies in Taiwan's banking industry. Regressions cover two subperiods: before the first financial reform (1996–2000) and after the first financial reform (2001–2006), to address the impacts of the first financial reform on banking firms’ financial structures. Our first result demonstrates that the restrictions on CAR have indeed affected firms’ risky investment strategies, as market share and leverage are positively related. Second, the firm performance is significantly and positively related to firm size, leverage and financial cost. Finally, the regression results show that financial structures for banking firms are positively related to the states of business cycle (i.e., cyclical). The positive signs coincide with Proposition 4 in our analytical model.     

金融发展、融资约束与企业成长

本文研究了我国各地区金融发展对上市公司融资约束进而对公司成长的影响,研究结果表明:金融发展水平的提高能减轻企业的融资约束;对于那些依赖外部融资来成长的企业而言,金融发展水平的提高能促进企业的成长性;金融发展水平的提高能促进企业的规模扩张。这一研究结果不仅丰富了我国金融发展与经济增长之间关系的经验研究,而且有助于我们对我国金融发展促进经济增长的微观机理有更加深入的了解。     

“人人贷”的法律监管分析——兼谈中国的影子银行问题

P2P网络贷款是影子银行体系的一个组成部分,它是依托互联网而产生的一种新的融资形式.同其他影子银行类型一样,对它的研究和监管都基本处于空白状态,P2P贷款的发展也面临着诸多争议.文章在借鉴美国监管经验的基础上,从金融脱媒以及个人贷款的角度对其进行了研究,指出影子银行体系的发展暴露了我国金融监管体制中存在的市场的割裂和不完备.并认为应当反思我国金融理论,通过立法的方式制定系统、综合的金融体系现代化方案.     

公司治理、宏观经济环境与财务失败预警研究——离散时间风险模型的应用

已有的财务失败预警模型大多只考虑财务信息的作用,忽视了公司治理状况、宏观经济环境等非财务因素对财务失败的影响。本文综合利用财务信息、公司治理信息和宏观经济信息,采用生存分析中的离散时间风险模型构建我国上市公司的财务失败动态预警模型,并实证检验和比较离散时间风险模型与logistic模型、probit模型的预警能力。研究结果显示,公司治理信息和宏观经济信息对财务失败具有显著的预警作用,在模型中纳入这些非财务信息有助于提高模型的预测效果。研究结果也表明,离散时间风险模型的样本内判别能力和样本外预测能力都高于logistic模型和probit模型。     

Policy certainty and heterogeneous firm innovation: Evidence from China

This paper investigates how policy certainty affects firm innovation activities. The identification hinges on the overlap of the elite dualism system in China. Naturally, a city Party leader served as the prior mayor in the same city is more likely to carry out the policy decisions made by the previous local administration, since he/she is one of the crucial leaders to make these decisions. In this circumstance, the policy certainty level would be higher for local listed firms. We find that the patent filings of listed firms, who enjoy a more stable local policy environment, significantly and substantially increase into the future. Such positive effects are robust to different model specifications and subsample analyses. Moreover, this paper documents the role of heterogeneity in the effects of policy certainty on firm innovation. The increased patent filings caused by a higher level of local policy certainty are mostly driven by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms having lower financial constraints. We further show that a higher level of local policy certainty would increase the stability of government subsidies received by firms, so the listed firms can more aggressively engage in innovation activities.     

实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模与系统性金融风险——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

防范系统性金融风险、维持金融体系的稳定是中国经济工作的重中之重.通过时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模对系统性金融风险的时变影响.研究发现,实体经济杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的关系,并且两者对系统性金融风险的冲击响应具有时变性和实滞效应.鉴于此,应加强实体经济部门去杠杆、影子银行监管,注重各金融风险防范政策之间的联动反应,以维护金融体系的稳定.     

金融集聚促进了企业数字化转型吗 ——基于企业年报文本大数据分析的经验证据

企业数字化转型作为中国数字经济的最小微观构成,其发展离不开高质量的金融供给支撑。文章利用2007—2019年中国A股上市企业数据集,分析金融集聚对企业数字化转型的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,金融集聚能够显著促进企业数字化转型,特别是对于非国有企业、战略性新兴产业及位于初创期、成熟期的企业驱动效果更加明显。机制研究发现,金融集聚能够通过缓解融资约束、改善企业预期和促进企业创新能力提升等三种传导路径助力企业开展数字化转型。特别地,金融监管是金融集聚更好释放效力的重要外部基础条件,在金融监管强度大的地区中,金融集聚能够有效助力企业数字化转型活动。本项研究从新的视角为理解金融发展与企业创新转型提供了经验证据。     

Credit Rating and Monetary Policy Transmission to Equity Markets: Evidence from the Emerging Market

This study empirically estimates credit channel of the monetary policy and corporate stock return using daily stock return data including the sample with non-financial firms listed in Korea stock exchange (KOSPI). Empirical results support that changes in the basis rate turn out to increase equity returns in case of the firms with higher credit rating compared to the previous year. The estimation results confirm the conjecture that monetary policy has a significant impact on stock market through the channel of changes in credit rating.     

金融化影响金融、非金融行业收入差距的区域异质性研究——基于中国省际面板的实证分析

随着金融化程度的加深,金融行业对人力资本的要求要高于非金融行业,金融行业与非金融行业收入差距增大存在市场的合理解释,但金融行业具有顺周期性,加大了资产价格波动,食利了非金融行业的部分利润,存在着不合理收入。实证发现在金融化水平较高的地区,金融化扩大金融、非金融行业收入差距的作用更强,建议金融行业从中长期激励及顺周期拨备的角度进行薪资改革。     

COVID-19 impact on firm investment—Evidence from Chinese publicly listed firms

The COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on business cash flows and investment activities. This paper examined the COVID-19 impact on Chinese business investment in 3326 A-share listed quarterly financial reports, from which it was found that the negative relationship was more pronounced in the large, eastern Chinese state-owned firms. Using a propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences estimation, corporate financial flexibility was also examined, with the results indicating that high cash flexibility provided a buffer that allowed firms to better deal with adverse external shocks as the firms that had high cash flexibility were able to significantly increase their investments after the COVID-19 outbreak. Various robustness tests were conducted, all of which verified the robustness of the results. Overall, the empirical results provided evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic in China had a negative impact on Chinese listed firms, and verified the vital role of flexible financial reserves for firm survival and development during crises.     

Differences in corporate saving rates in China: Ownership,monopoly, and financial development

Using the data of the listed non-financial companies from 2003 to 2012, this paper conducts a firm-level empirical analysis to reveal the determinants that lead to differences in saving rates of different enterprises in China. Particularly, we explore the discrepancies in the Chinese enterprises' saving rates from the new perspectives of ownership type, monopoly status, and financial development. We find that only some financial indicators of a firm, including the size and the long-term solvency ability, have direct impact on its saving rate. Besides, the difference in the saving rates between private firms and state-owned firms is insignificant while monopolies have higher saving rates than non-monopolies. Most importantly, financial development generally reduces a firm's saving rate and the impact is independent on its ownership type and monopoly status. Moreover, financial development decreases the influence of a firm's short-term solvency and profitability on its saving rate.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm’s cash holding in China: The key role of asset reversibility

This paper investigates how asset reversibility affects the sensitivity of firm’s cash holding to economic policy uncertainty in China. Using the 2012 national input-output table for 139 industries, we measure the industry-level asset reversibility and match them with nonfinancial publicly listed firms over 2007−2017. The results show that asset reversibility has a significant and negative effect on the positive uncertainty-cash holding sensitivity, especially for firms with more severe financial constraints. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher asset reversibility invest more in fixed assets, suggesting that real investment is an important mechanism. In addition, baseline results are robust to potential endogeneity and alternative measures of asset reversibility and economic policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal that asset market friction is a critical determinant of firm’s cash holding.