香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

进入中国大陆的FDI主要来自日本、美国、中国香港等国家和地区。进入中国大陆的香港FDI主要有港商投资、在港中资机构投资和“假外资”投资等三种类型。中国大陆东部沿海地区是香港FDI进入的优先区域,并向内地呈梯度分布。我们以1980—2008年的中国省级面板数据为基础,实证研究了香港FDI进入中国大陆的决定因素。本文结论显...     

Are stronger executive incentives associated with cross-listing? Evidence from China

This study examines whether firms incorporated in mainland China benefit from cross-listing in Hong Kong, China. The Hong Kong Stock Market has more stringent rules regarding corporate governance and a better system of investor protection than the mainland market. Hong Kong companies generally provide strong incentives to executives via equity-based compensation. Have cross-listed companies learned from Hong Kong firms about adopting these strong executive incentives? The evidence from this study suggests that changes in top executive compensation are more sensitive to sales growth in cross-listed firms than they are in mainland firms without cross-listing. However, compared to Hong Kong firms, cross-listed firms are less sensitive to stock returns. Further, this study shows that it is necessary to differentiate between state-owned companies and private companies, as cross-listing may have a greater impact on executive incentives in state-owned companies than it does in private companies.     

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA BY HONG KONG'S CROSS‐BORDER GARMENT FIRMS

Hong Kong manufacturers have historically been one of the main sources of foreign direct investment to China, but their contribution to the transfer of technology to the mainland has been questioned due to the generally labor‐ rather than capital‐intensive, low‐value‐adding activities they perform there. Using data from eighty‐four Hong Kong‐based garment manufacturers that have invested directly in mainland China, this paper examines the role of Hong Kong FDI in the transfer of technology to China. Analyses show that Hong Kong garment firms are in fact human‐capital‐intensive and are endowed with valuable managerial technology and, moreover, act as effective channels for the transfer of such technology to mainland China.     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

香港国际金融中心的比较优势——兼论上海金融中心所面临的挑战和机遇

作为亚太国际金融中心,香港面临来自国际及中国内地金融中心的挑战和竞争。本文探讨了香港金融证券业的个别特定金融机构和专业人才的比较优势。特别是《更紧密经贸关系安排》(CE-PA)增强了香港与内地金融证券市场和客户的接近度,促进了香港金融证券业专业人才的培训和交流、香港中小银行的合并以及证券市场的融资和交易。本文进而提出,一方面,香港需要与中国内地经贸合作而增强其作为国际金融中心的经济实力;另一方面,香港以泛珠三角地区为平台,上海以长江三角地区为平台,可以促进香港与中国内地的金融证券业相互补充和相互帮助,并带动亚太区域金融中心的互动。通过竞争与协调,加强金融监管合作和融通,进而有效地利用有限的经济金融资源。     

A Eurasian Economic Vision for the Twenty-first Century

Widespread corruption in mainland China adversely affects the overall economy in general and international business in particular. Prior to the establishment of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in 1974, corruption was also rampant in Hong Kong. The ICAC effectively cleaned corruption in Hong Kong within a short period of time. Hong Kong's success in this area has prompted the Chinese government to learn from Hong Kong's experience. This article reviews the factors that contributed to Hong Kong's success in fighting corruption and discusses whether China can learn from the Hong Kong experience. From this, we can conclude that, first, Hong Kong's experience demonstrates that a corruption‐prone culture can be changed in a relatively short period of time; second, in order for China to learn from Hong Kong's experience, there must be substantial changes in China's political and economic institutions.     

CEPA效应分析

CEPA的实施,有利于中华经济圈的建立;有利于重新确定香港在中国经济发展中的地位与角色;有利于两地制造业的整体提升;有利于市场的开放和融合。在货物贸易自由化的影响下,将主要产生关税节约(对内地的收入减少)效应、制造业回流及外资引入效应;在服务贸易自由化和投资便利化的     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

CEPA and Pan Pearl River Delta Economic Integration: A Comparative Business Development Perspective

Abstract

The introduction of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) at the beginning of 2004 and, more recently, CEPA-2 has provided a framework for increased business development in the Pearl River Delta area of China and the Special Administrative Regions of Macau and Hong Kong. In particular, the introduction of CEPA may lead to a significant increase in trade between Hong Kong and the neighbouring Guangdong Province.

This paper examines the economic context into which the CEPA provisions have been implemented from an international perspective and it contains an assessment of relevant business development issues, particularly the case of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in mainland China and Hong Kong. Wider issues for direct investment and the role of Hong Kong are also assessed. Experience with the implementation of free trade and associated market developments in other parts of the world is included but it is suggested that such models are of limited use in assessing economic development in the Pan Pearl River Delta Area. It seems that models derived from local practice will be more effective.     

香港居民和中国大陆居民纳税意识差距及深层原因剖析

中、西方意识形态、文化习俗及经济社会制度的差异是导致中国大陆和中国香港居民纳税意识差距的主要原因,通过构建影响居民纳税意识的指标体系,对中国香港和中国大陆的各项指标进行比照,分析两地居民纳税意识差异的深层原因。并借鉴中国香港的成功经验,提出增强我国大陆居民纳税意识的对策,这对公共财政的建设和完善具有重要意义。     

Lean Hong Kong Harvest and the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Abstract

The biennial Ministerial Conferences are the most important event of the WTO regime. The Hong Kong Ministerial Conference was the sixth biennial conference of the WTO, which aimed at a low-level equilibrium and achieved it. While it successfully eschewed another Cancún-like disappointing failure, the Hong Kong Ministerial did not achieve much of substance. If success is defined as not failing, the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference could be adjudged a success. Few bold decisions were attempted and important outstanding decisions were put off for the future. Liberalization of multilateral trade in agriculture was the most important as well as the most contentious issue in Hong Kong. A good number of significant secondary areas were also under negotiations. Core modalities that were to be determined on these issues in Hong Kong were not. A reasonably successful Hong Kong Ministerial Conference would have helped in advancing the Doha Round, which in turn would have meant welfare gains to the global economy, and its different regions and sub-regions. This opportunity was evidently missed.     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.     

香港权证市场发展对我国内地的借鉴研究

我国内地随着股权分置改革的启动于2005年再次将权证引入资本市场。本文学习借鉴成熟的香港权证市场的成功经验,并避免其存在的问题,是有利于我国内地权证市场的稳步健康发展。     

Costs and Benefits of Export-Oriented Foreign Investment: The Case of China

The costs and benefits of export-oriented FDI have been discussed by Helleiner (1973, 1998), Watanabe (1972), Sharpston (1975), and others. Processed exports generated from FDI have constituted over half of the exports of Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and China. Despite the importance of processed exports, empirical studies of their costs and benefits are difficult due to lack of data, especially on transfer earnings. Data on the division of benefits between the source and host countries are scarce and unreliable. This paper examines the costs and benefits of export-oriented foreign investment for China. China has been highly successful in exporting and in attracting FDI, especially export-oriented FDI from Hong Kong. Since 1993, China has become the second largest recipient of FDI in the world after the US, and Hong Kong has become the world's fourth largest source of FDI after the US, UK, and Germany. China's processed exports are largely re-exported via Hong Kong. As a result, good data on the total value-added of processed exports for Mainland China and for Hong Kong are available. It is found that the rate of value-added for Mainland China is relatively low compare with that for Hong Kong, indicating transfer pricing and absence of linkages in the mainland. This appears to be due to the rigidity of China's economic system which hampers backward and forward linkages. The mainland is thus dependent on Hong Kong for many services in the value-added chain. However, the rate of value-added for China has increased substantially since 1996, indicating an increase in both backward and forward linkages.     

Can China's Diplomatic Partnership Strategy Benefit Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China's partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China's diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as non‐central firms and non‐Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China's diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China's diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.     

关于《CEPA》与香港对外贸易发展的研究

本文围绕《CEPA》为主题,详细描述了《CEPA》的签署历程、特点,并且对《CEPA》签署后香港对外贸易的发展进行了详尽的分析。最后针对《CEPA》尚存在的问题,提出了将来进一步的补充《CEPA》内容的提议,以求使内地与香港的经济、贸易合作关系更加紧密。     

中国内地与香港贸易流量的关键影响因素——基于16个省份面板数据的实证分析

2004年以来,中国内地与香港的贸易流量主要受GDP和人均GDP的影响,《泛珠三角区域合作框架协议》对双边贸易的影响并不显著,内地与香港的产业内贸易特征明显.未来,内地应该加快发展区域经济,努力增加居民收入,不断完善基础设施,加快建设统一市场,深化产业内专业化分工,优化区域治理结构,从而提升内地与香港的经贸关系.     

FDI and market entry/exit: Evidence from China

This paper considers the impact of FDI and FDI-related spillovers on the entry and exit rates of domestic firms in mainland China's manufacturing sector. Since we suspect that aggregate results obscure differing effects based on the source of the FDI, we disaggregate FDI into that originating from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan (HMT) area and the rest of the world. The empirical analysis, based on 4-digit industry level panel data over the period 2003–2007, reveals that FDI originating from the rest of the world has made a significant contribution to the entry rate of domestic firms in China and the spillover effect arising from backward linkages is also positive and significant. However, FDI originating from HMT area has not encouraged domestic entry, whilst it has contributed to an increase in the exit rate of domestic firms.     

“港股直通车”对两地股市影响的实证分析

本文以股权分置改革后的最新数据为研究对象,首先剖析了香港股市与内地股市的高度关联性,然后运用计量经济方法检验两地股市的相关性、以及“港股直通车”前后两地股市关系发生的变化,从而得出结论：在当前背景下,不宜推出“港股直通车”。这也证明了中央暂停港股直通车的合理性与及时性。     

浅析CEPA框架下内地同香港、澳门服务贸易中的法律适用问题

本文从简要介绍CEPA入手,分析了CEPA框架下的法律适用原则;大陆与香港、澳门法律规定上的差别;我国现有服务贸易法制存在的缺陷等问题后,提出了解决大陆与香港、澳门的法律适用问题的些许建议,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用。