卢锋:应加快调整“一胎政策”

北京大学国家发展研究院副院长卢锋日前撰文指出,中国应当加快调整一胎生育管制政策。卢锋说,随着多年来中国低生育人口形势延续和发展,中国学界和公众讨论建言调整一胎生育管制政策的呼声日高。而中国官方政策也发生微妙变化。例如2006年年底中国决策层发布《关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》指出,"面对新的形势和任务,既要坚持多年来行之有效的基本经验,又要解放思想、实事求是、与     

China's Great Ascendancy and structural risks: consequences of asymmetric market liberalisation

China's great ascendancy from a poor agrarian economy to an economic superpower is unprecedented. But in the process, structural imbalances, resource inefficiency, and income inequality worsened rapidly. It is argued that the coexistence of China's extraordinary growth and serious structural risks are two sides of the same coin: asymmetric liberalisation of product and factor markets. Distortions in markets for labour, capital, land, energy, and the environment lower production costs, increase corporate profits, raise investment returns, improve the international competitiveness of Chinese goods, and therefore lift China's growth. But they also depress consumption. China needs to accelerate factor market liberalisation in order to complete the transition to a market economy and to lock the economy onto a more sustainable path.     

冷——政策降温楼市

一边是销售量"井喷"的同时房价快速上扬,一边是各主要城市"地王"频现.同时,银行信贷扩张迅猛,前四个月全国新增贷款5.17万亿,已经超过全年5万亿的计划. 在这种形势下,政府的态度开始日趋谨慎,国家宏观调控政策出台的节奏开始放慢.     

中国城镇劳动力市场中劳动参与弹性研究

本文应用微观经济计量方法研究了中国城镇劳动力市场中女性和男性的劳动参与弹性,结果表明:女性劳动供给工资弹性明显大于男性劳动供给工资弹性;随着家庭平均收入水平的提高,个体劳动参与的工资弹性和收入弹性均逐渐减小.因此,设计并实施积极的劳动力市场政策能够有效地促进低收入群体的劳动参与,有助于城镇贫困的削减和收入差距的缩小.     

Labor market in the Mari El Republic

The article deals with the problem of transforming the labor market in the Mari El Republic. A model for forecasting the population’s employment has been proposed and forecasting calculations of regional labor-market indicators have been carried out. Ways to achieve a balance of supply and demand of labor in the current economic conditions have been outlined.     

Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.     

Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on Chinese household savings - Evidence from an Oaxaca decomposition

Researchers have long puzzled over China's high household savings rate. Some have hypothesized that the explanation lies with China's One-Child Policy (OCP). According to this hypothesis, faced with fewer children to support them in their old age, Chinese parents increased their savings to finance retirement. Previous research relied on empirical studies of the relationship between children and saving behavior. However, all of these studies based their analysis on data after the OCP was implemented. Their implicit counterfactual for China without an OCP was households with multiple children living in an OCP environment. In contrast, we compare Chinese people with people from regions that do not have restrictive population policies. These regions share many cultural, demographic and economic characteristics with China that suggest they can be used as a counterfactual for China. This approach enables us to employ a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition procedure to identify the different channels by which children could affect savings. Our results suggest that the OCP decreased households' proclivity to save. The estimated effects are generally small, in the range of one to two percentage points. We find no evidence to indicate that the OCP can explain China's high saving rate. An implication of our findings is that they suggest that the recent relaxation of the OCP cannot be counted upon to substantially boost Chinese consumption.     

传媒:政策、经营和市场

我国传媒业正面临着巨大的挑战和机遇.市场化、全球化对传媒的冲击和要求,已使我们无法回避我国传媒业突破框子、深化改革的问题.如何在政策限制和经营局限的条件下发展壮大,有效地参与国际、国内的竞争,是摆在我们面前的一大课题.本文从政策、经营、市场的角度,对此作了探讨.     

IT企业应用ERP研究

我国传媒业正面临着巨大的挑战和机遇。市场化、全球化对传媒的冲击和要求 ,已使我们无法回避我国传媒业突破框子、深化改革的问题。如何在政策限制和经营局限的条件下发展壮大 ,有效地参与国际、国内的竞争 ,是摆在我们面前的一大课题。本文从政策、经营、市场的角度 ,对此作     

The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market

Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995–2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment.     

Labor market fluctuations in the small and in the large

Shimer's calibrated version of the Mortensen–Pissarides model generates unemployment fluctuates much smaller than the data. Hagedorn and Manovskii present an alternative calibration that yields fluctuations consistent with the data, but this has been challenged by Costain and Reiter, who say it generates unrealistically big differences in unemployment from the differences in policy we see across countries. We argue this concern might be unwarranted, because one cannot assume that elasticities relevant for small changes work for large changes. Models with fixed factors in market or household production can generate large effects from small changes and reasonable effects from large changes. This is reminiscent of attempts to improve the labor market in the Kydland–Prescott model, especially ones incorporating household production, like Benhabib, Rogerson, and Wright.     

Monetary policy in the common market countries: Rules versus discretion

Zusammenfassung W?hrungspolitik in den EWG-L?ndern: Spielregeln oder Ermessensentscheidungen (?Rules versus discretion?). — Der Zweck der vorliegenden Abhandlung besteht darin, die Bedeutung des Geldes und der W?hrungspolitik innerhalb der EWG zu prüfen und zu untersuchen, wie gut die einzelnen W?hrungsbeh?rden die Geldversorgung in ihren L?ndern geregelt haben, um dadurch mehr Klarheit in die andauernde Kontroverse über ?Regeln gegen Ermessungsentscheidungen? in der Geldpolitik zu bringen. Im Abschnitt I werden der EWG-Reform-Plan für die W?hrungspolitik (?Werner Plan?) und das Reformprogramm für die siebziger Jahre diskutiert. Im Abschnitt II wird die Bedeutung des Geldes und der Geldpolitik innerhalb der EWG behandelt, Abschnitt III und IV überprüfen einige Regelungen der Geldregulierungen und legen die Ergebnisse vor. Abschnitt V schlie\lich enth?lt die Zusammenfassung der Abhandlung.

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Résumé Politique monétaire dans les pays du marché commun: Règlement ou pouvoir discrétionnaire. — Dans cette étude, l’auteur examine l’importance de l’argent et de la politique monétaire au sein de la CEE pour savoir jusqu’à quel point les autorités monétaires ont réglé d’une manière satisfaisante l’approvisionnement d’argent dans leurs pays respectifs. Il cherche à apporter de la lumière à la controverse persistante sur la question: règlement ou pouvoir discrétionnaire en politique monétaire. La première section traite du plan CEE d’action pour la politique monétaire (?Plan Werner?) et du programme pour la décennie de 1970. La seconde section examine la signification de l’argent et de la politique monétaire au sein de la CEE. Les sections III et IV mettent à l’épreuve plusieures règles de régime monétaire et en démontrent les résultats. La section V présente les conclusions de l’étude.

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Resumen Política monetaria en los países de la C.E.E.: ? Reglas o medidas discrecionales? — El objetivo del presente artículo consiste en introducir una mayor transparencia en un tema tan controvertido como el si los países miembros de la C.E.E. deben basar la política monetaria en reglas preconcebidas o en medidas discrecionales. En el primer apartado el autor discute el ?Plan Werner? yel programa de reformas para la década de los a?os setenta. A continuatión estudia la importancia del dinero y de la política monetaria en la C.E.E. En los apartados III y IV analiza algunas disposiciones acerca del regulamiento de la oferta monetaria y presenta los resultados. El trabajo se concluye con un resumen.

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Riassunto Politica monetaria nei Paesi della C.E.E.: regole di gioco e decisioni discrezionali (?Rules versus discretion?). — Lo scopo del presente lavoro consiste in ciò, nell’esaminare e ricercare il significato del denaro e della politica monetaria entro la C.E.E., come bene le singole autorità monetarie abbiano regolato l’approvigionamento di denaro per portare con ciò più chiarezza nella persistente controversia su ?regole contro decisioni discrezionali? nella politica monetaria. Nel capitolo I vengono discussi il piano di riforma della C.E.E. per la politica monetaria (?Werner Plan?) ed il programma di riforma per gli anni settanta. Nel capitolo II viene trattato il significato del denaro e della politica monetaria entro la C.E.E., il capitolo III e IV esaminano alcuni regolamenti della regolamentazione del denaro e presentano i risultati. Il capitolo V infine contiene il riassunto del saggio.

     

Labor market adjustment under transition in Laos

Laos has engaged in an ambitious program of economic reforms, the New Economic Mechanism. Yet little attention has been devoted to the impact of the reform process on the functioning of the labour market and to the role of the labour market in mobilizing human resources. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of reform policy on the labor market and to show how a better adjustment of the labor market can facilitate the success of the New Economic Mechanism. The purpose of the paper is also to show how a better use of the information generated in the labor market can contribute to transforming the reform process into a process of sustained economic growth in Laos.     

Inequality of Opportunity in China's Labor Earnings: The Gender Dimension

This paper investigates the inequality of opportunity in China's labor earnings, defined as the component of inequality determined by personal circumstances that lie beyond the control of an individual, of which gender is one, as opposed to the component determined by personal efforts. Using the Survey of Women's Social Status in China (2010), we measure the share of inequality of opportunity in the total inequality of individual labor earnings for people aged 26–55 years, and separately for six birth cohorts and for female and male subsamples. Gender is revealed as the single most important circumstance determining nationwide individual labor earnings, with one's region of residence, father's occupation, father's education, birth cohort and holding rural or urban hukou also playing significant roles. A further investigation into the roles of circumstances and personal efforts (including education level, occupation, Communist Party membership, migration and marital status) confirms that circumstances play an alarmingly high role in shaping labor earnings distribution in China, and reveals notable gender differences that cannot be attributed to personal effort alone. These results provide the basis for recommending ways to improve gender equality of opportunity in the future.     

Biased data revisions: Unintended consequences of China's energy-saving mandates

In China energy-saving mandates issued by the central government can trigger a trade-off between faithful implementation and kinds of strategic responses at the local level. This paper examines the biased data revision pattern of Chinese provinces under incentives created by energy-saving mandates. The data revisions conducted by provinces in the treatment group are evaluated against those carried out by their counterparts in the control group. Empirical evidence is provided that some provinces in the treatment group conducted biased data revisions by taking advantage of benchmark revisions of historical data following the 2008 Economic Census. These provinces adjusted their base-year energy consumption figure upward in seeking to reach the 2010 energy intensity reduction targets numerically. In institutional terms, strong political incentives are formed by assigning energy-saving indicators a veto power in cadre performance assessment. In a self-reported statistical regime, checks and balances are particularly weak regarding benchmark revisions of historical data. The findings of this paper suggest that the data quality of associated official statistics at the local level is undermined by energy-saving mandates. To improve the data quality of the official statistics, new checks and balances should be installed for local statistics.     

Russian enterprises in mid-2006: Some consequences of national macroeconomic policy

The Results of a regular poll, conducted by the Laboratory of Macroeconomic Process Analysis and Forecasting of the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting among real-sector enterprises, are analyzed and commented.     

Optimal trade policy in the presence of changing market structure

This study examines the optimal use of tariff policy in response to a change in both the number and market behavior of domestic firms. The paper demonstrates that under certain demand conditions, optimal trade policy may require an increase in tariffs in response to an increase in consolidation or collusion among domestic firms.     

Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US and Japan. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability for a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest-rate pegs combined with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This suggests that in periods where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is a relevant constraint on policy design, a switch in fiscal regime is desirable.     

Labor market deregulation and globalization: empirical evidence from OECD countries

This paper empirically investigates the influence of globalization on various aspects of labor market deregulation. I employ the data set by Bassanini and Duval (2006) on labor market institutions in OECD countries and the KOF index of globalization. The data set covers 20 OECD countries in the 1982–2003 period. The results suggest that globalization did neither influence the unemployment replacement rate, the unemployment benefit length, public expenditures on ALMP, the tax wedge, union density nor overall employment protection. In contrast, protection of regular employment contracts was diminished when globalization was proceeding rapidly. In fact, domestic aspects, such as unemployment and government ideology are more important determinants of labor market institutions and deregulation processes in OECD countries than globalization. For this reason, working conditions of unskilled workers are not likely to deteriorate and the jobs of unskilled workers are not likely to disappear in the course of globalization. All this is, of course, not to insinuate that globalization has any benign influence on labor market institutions.     

FDI and the labour market: a review of the evidence and policy implications

This paper presents a series of results concerning the labour-marketimpact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK.The paper demonstrates that one of the crucial impacts of FDIis to increase wage inequality and the use of relatively moreskilled labour in the domestic firms. This result is found tobe a combination of two effects. First, the entry by a multinationalenterprise (MNE) increases the demand for skilled workers inan industry or region, thus increasing wage inequality. Second,technology spillovers occur from foreign to domestic firms.As a result of these spillovers, relative demand for skilledworkers increases in the domestic firms, further contributingto aggregate wage inequality and skill upgrading. The paperalso considers how FDI impacts upon skill shares by productivitydifferentials between foreign and domestic firms. Finally, thepolicy implications of this are discussed, from the perspectiveof regional development, and the likely effectiveness of attractingFDI to reduce structural unemployment.