杠杆演进以及初始杠杆对资本结构的影响分析

本文对公司财务杠杆的演进趋势以及初始杠杆对资本结构的影响进行了实证检验。结果表明,在初始时较高(或较低)杠杆公司在10年后仍维持较高(或较低)杠杆,并保持明显的差异性。随着时间的推移,较高(或较低)杠杆公司呈现出显著的杠杆收敛性。初始杠杆对10年以后公司当前杠杆的决定存在着显著且稳定的影响,即初始杠杆不随时间而改变且反映公司初始企业特征的因素是当前杠杆的重要决定因素。     

Stress testing banks

How much capital and liquidity does a bank need to support its risk taking activities? During the recent (and still ongoing) financial crisis, answers to this question using standard approaches, e.g., regulatory capital ratios, were no longer credible, and thus broad-based supervisory stress testing became the new tool. Bank balance sheets are notoriously opaque and susceptible to asset substitution (easy swapping of high risk for low risk assets), so stress tests, tailored to the situation at hand, can provide clarity by openly disclosing details of the results and approaches taken, allowing trust to be regained. With that trust re-established, the cost-benefit of stress testing disclosures may tip away from bank-specific towards more aggregated information. This paper lays out a framework for the stress testing of banks: why it is useful and why it has become such a popular tool for the regulatory community in the course of the recent financial crisis; how stress testing is done (design and execution); and finally, with stress testing results in hand, how one should handle their disclosure, and whether it should be different in crisis vs. “normal” times.     

上市公司资本结构治理的影响分析——基于主流资本结构理论的思考

自著名的MM理论提出以来,西方许多学者一直在做放松MM理论前提假设的努力,以图更好地解释现实世界。在此基础上诞生的权衡理论、顺序偏好理论等学说对理论界和实务界都产生了很大的影响,其中的代理成本理论和控制权理论更是深刻地揭示了资本结构和公司治理的联系。针对我国新兴证券市场及转型经济的现状,结合一些最新的研究成果和实际情况,本文尝试从理论角度分析我国上市公司的资本结构与公司治理的互动影响。     

The dynamics of the leverage cycle

We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The Value-at-Risk constraint implies that when perceived risk is low, leverage is high and vice versa; a phenomenon that has been dubbed pro-cyclical leverage. We show that this leads to endogenous irregular oscillations, in which gradual increases in stock prices and leverage are followed by drastic market collapses, i.e. a leverage cycle. This phenomenon is studied using simplified models that give a deeper understanding of the dynamics and the nature of the feedback loops and instabilities underlying the leverage cycle. We introduce a flexible leverage regulation policy in which it is possible to continuously tune from pro-cyclical to countercyclical leverage. When the policy is sufficiently countercyclical and bank risk is sufficiently low the endogenous oscillation disappears and prices go to a fixed point. While there is always a leverage ceiling above which the dynamics are unstable, countercyclical leverage policies can be used to raise the ceiling. We also study the impact on leverage cycles of direct, temporal control of the bank׳s riskiness via the bank׳s required Value-at-Risk quantile. Under such a rule the regulator relaxes the Value-at-Risk quantile following a negative stock price shock and tightens it following a positive shock. While such a policy rule can reduce the amplitude of leverage cycles, its effectiveness is highly dependent on the choice of parameters. Finally, we investigate fixed limits on leverage and show how they can control the leverage cycle.     

中国上市公司资本结构的优劣分析——兼论TCL集团整体上市融资行为

我国上市公司大多偏好于股权融资,这与西方经典的融资优序理论大相径庭,目前大多数分析资本结构的相关文章都认为我国上市公司资本结构存在着巨大的缺陷,而笔者认为不能单从理论上去判断一个上市公司资本结构的好坏,而应该结合公司所处的整体环境进行分析。本文先对融资优序论与我国上市公司偏好相悖进行简要回顾,接着分析目前我国上市公司的资本结构的优劣,而后选取了在2004年初刚完成整体上市的TCL集团进行个案研究,并从该公司所处的具体环境出发,对其急欲上市融资的行为进行了综合分析。     

中国上市公司送转行为动因研究——基于高送转样本的检验

关于中国上市公司大量进行股票送转的动机,学术界尚存争论。本文将不同送转理论纳入同一个计量模型,利用2006～2010年进行高送转公司的样本对不同送转理论进行了验证,为解决关于股票送转动机的争论提供了经验证据。实证结果支持了"最适价格假说"与"股本扩张假说",而拒绝"信号传递假说"、"价格幻觉假说"与"股利迎合假说"。此外,本文模型对高送转公司的预测准确度达90%,基于模型预测建立高送转公司的投资组合可以获取较稳定的超额收益。     

资本结构与财务目标实现程度的相关性分析

本文以现金流量最大化作为企业财务目标的衡量标准,以资产负债率作为资本结构的衡量指标,选取了部分行业的部分上市公司为样本,在确定“最优资本结构区间”的基础上,分别运用单因素方差分析和列联表分析两种统计方法,对企业的资本结构与财务目标实现程度的相关性进行了实证分析,得出了二者显著相关的结论,从而为最优资本结构区间确定方法的科学性提供了经验证据。     

资本结构理论历史演变综述及其评价

资本结构理论是西方当代财务理论的主要研究成果之一,它是基于实现企业价值最大化或股东财富最大化的目标,对企业长期债务资本和权益资本的构成比例及其变化情况进行研究。本文介绍了资本结构理论的历史演进,并对其发展变化及研究成果进行评价。     

资本结构决策理论及其存在的问题分析

本文资本结构理论论进行了综合研究与评述,并对资本结构定量决策的每股收益分析法和比较资金成本法,对资本结构理论及目前资本结构定量决策方法存在的问题作了全面的分析研究,以其对企业财务管理理论研究与教学参考。     

资本结构与财务目标实现程度的相关性分析

本文以现金流量最大化作为企业财务目标的衡量标准,以资产负债率作为资本结构的衡量指标,选取了部分行业的部分上市公司为样本,在确定“最优资本结构区间”的基础上,分别运用单因素方差分析和列联表分析两种统计方法,对企业的资本结构与财务目标实现程度的相关性进行了实证分析,得出了二者显著相关的结论,从而为最优资本结构区间确定方法的科学性提供了经验证据。     

上市公司股利政策的思考

股利政策作为上市公司的核心财务政策,不仅关系到股东的利益和福利水平,还关系到公司未来的发展,因而一直备受利益各方关注。笔者结合我国上市公司股利分配政策的实践,针对其所表现出的特点,从内部根源和外部环境两方面分析其问题所在及带来的危害,最后提出规范我国上市公司股利分配的建议。     

上市公司资本结构与融资行为研究

我国上市公司存在股权融资偏好,而西方企业优先偏好内部融资,其次是债务融资,最后才是股权融资,即所谓的优序融资理论。为什么我国上市公司的融资选择不符合该理论,本文通过对上市公司资本结构与融资行为的影响因素研究后发现,我国当前特殊的资本市场以及在此基础上的公司治理结构等制度性因素影响,是造成上市公司股权融资偏好行为的重要因素。     

上市公司资本结构的现状及其优化对策——来自纺织服装行业的实践

资本结构是企业融资决策的核心内容,资本结构是否合理关系到企业经营绩效的高低、财务目标的实现和能否可持续发展。本文基于现代资本结构理论,运用比较分析法剖析了纺织服装上市公司资本结构的现状、问题和形成的内部因素,并提出了优化纺织服装上市公司资本结构的对策。     

我国上市公司融资风险及其防范

面对竞争更加激烈的国内资本市场,我国上市公司必须通过加强融资风险的防范来获得融资的竞争优势。本文从我国上市公司融资的实际状况出发,分析了上市公司融资风险现状以及成因,提出了通过提高融资效率、优化资本结构、建立融资风险预警系统和完善公司治理结构等措施来降低和防范公司的融资风险。     

Short-cuts in issuance decisions and subsequent small firm performance

This paper examines the subsequent change in performance characteristics of companies that make security issuance choices consistent with “following the herd.” It extends the literature on decision heuristics (i.e., decision short-cuts) by exploring the outcome of mimicking behavior. Results suggest that firms that issue equity in an environment consistent with mimicking are associated with subsequent increased risk of bankruptcy relative to their non-mimicking counterparts. Moreover, the results also suggest that these mimicking actions are not associated with subsequent changes in profitability. This gives support to the argument that decision short-cuts produce suboptimal results. Moreover, the effect is concentrated in very small (i.e., micro-cap) companies, but not present for companies in larger size categories. Similar patterns for debt issuers who mimic competitors are not observed, which may reflect the greater scrutiny imposed by lenders and debt under-writers with regard to debt issuances.

工业企业资本结构影响绩效的实证研究——辽宁省的实践

本文选取辽宁省1211家国有控股工业企业作为研究样本,对其资本结构、企业绩效进行了实证研究。结果发现:企业的资产负债率、长期负债率、短期负债率与总资产收益率在整体上均呈负相关关系,但当企业的长期负债率、短期负债率在不同比例时,企业的总资产收益率分别与其呈正相关关系。     

资本结构研究述评

本文从治理结构、内部资源和外部环境的角度,对国内外资本结构研究进行了总结与分析。提出将资本结构纳入战略管理、资本结构和企业战略结合的系统框架,试图为资本结构的研究提供新的视角和理论框架。