"金砖四国"中的巴西及中国-巴西双边贸易分析

巴西与中国同为金砖四国成员,巴西丰富的自然资源和迅速增长的经济发展态势是其成为发展中大国的重要资本。中国和巴西经贸关系稳步发展,然而双边贸易发展并不平衡,我国一直呈现贸易逆差。从两国的进出口商品结构,包括对贸易结合度指数、商品集中度指数以及产品的显示性比较优势指数进行分析,可以看到中巴两国进出口商品特点不同,在出口商品种类上中巴双方的互补大于竞争。这为我国发挥自身产品优势,有计划地加大对巴贸易出口提供了可能。我国应在对巴贸易中做出更准确的市场判断,制定符合市场需求的进出口策略,充分挖掘两国贸易合作的潜力。     

中国企业投资东盟市场的地点选择

一、影响投资地点选择的因素 (一)东盟市场的投资环境 中国-东盟自由贸易区建成后,将形成一个拥有18亿消费者、近2万亿美元国内生产总值、1.2万亿美元贸易总量的经济区.面对这样的市场,中国企业必须认真研究和分析其投资环境.就目前来看,东盟市场的非关税壁垒仍然很高,具体表现在:     

我国遭遇反倾销的双边影响因素分析——基于面板数据的研究

基于1981-2006年对中国发起反倾销起诉最多的三个国家的统计数据,通过模型分析和实证研究表明进口国经济增长率和汇率与我国遭遇反倾销起诉的次数成负相关;对外直接投资流量与遭遇反倾销起诉的次数存在正相关性;而这些相关系数能否通过显著性检验在不同国家存在差异.经验研究的结论为我国政府制定反倾销政策提供了理论依据.     

Bilateral war in a multilateral world: carrots and sticks for conflict resolution

Abstract.  This paper constructs a three-country, specific-factor, trade-theoretic model in which two of the countries are in conflict and where war effort is determined endogenously in a Nash equilibrium. The third country does not take part in the war, but trades with the warring countries. In the framework, we examine, inter alia, how war and welfare are affected by globalization and by two instruments available to the third country – one carrot and one stick. Our overall conclusion is that the third parties do have the incentives for, and can play an effective role in, conflict resolution. JEL classification: F02, F11, H56, H77     

Integration and transition: Scenarios for the location of production and trade in Europe

Applying a newly developed CGE-model, we present scenarios for the future economic geography of Europe. The model divides the world into ten regions, five of which are European, and 14 industries, of which 12 are imperfectly competitive. With a complete input-output structure, the model captures comparative advantage mechanisms as well as intra-industry trade and 'new economic geography' agglomeration forces. The simulations focus on the consequences of successful transformation in Eastern Europe. The results indicate that transformation and European integration are of great importance for Eastern Europe, while the overall effects for other European regions are small. Individual sectors in the EU, such as Textiles and Transport Equipment, are, however, in some cases strongly affected.
JEL classification: C68, F12, F17, R11.     

Trade of Permits for Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Bilateral Trade Need not be the Answer

The Kyoto Protocol sets national quotas on GHG emissions and allows international trade of these quotas. Taking terms-of-trade effects into account, we argue that this trade is characterized by asymmetric, identity-dependent externalities, and show that bilateral trade of permits may not be sufficient for an efficient allocation of emissions. We derive conditions under which bilateral trade does improve the allocation of permits. The conditions are strong. In this sense, we argue that, for emissions permits, market design matters.     

Tradeable permits for pollution control when emission location matters: What have we learned?

Our knowledge about tradeable permit approaches to pollution control has grown rapidly in the two decades in which they have received serious analytical attention. Not only have the theoretical models become more focused and the empirical work more detailed, but we have now had over a decade of experience with them in the U.S. This article draws upon economic theory, empirical studies, and actual experience with implementation to summarize what we have learned about applying tradeable permits to air pollution control in the special circumstance where the spatial aspects of the problem are a prime consideration.     

China: An Early Test for Obama

Global recessions can bring out the worst in treading partners. Plunging do- mestic demand in both China and the U. S. has left manufacturers in both coun- tries plagued with overcapacity. Ameri- can companies are now accusing their Chinese rivals of dumping products-     

An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy

Since the first application of technology roadmapping in the late 1970s to support integrated product-technology planning, roadmapping concepts and techniques have been widely adopted at product, technology, company, sector and policy levels. The roadmapping approach is flexible and scalable, and can be customized to suit many different strategic and innovation contexts. However, this demands careful planning and design, including consideration of roadmap structure, process and participation.This paper explores the issues of how to design and architect roadmaps and roadmapping processes, which is crucial if the approach is to provide a framework for supporting effective dialogue and communication within and between organizations. The structure of the roadmap, and the process for developing and maintaining the roadmap, should be designed to serve the purpose for which the activity is intended to satisfy, providing a ‘common language and structure' for both development and deployment of strategy.     

Econometrics for Evaluations: An Introduction to Recent Developments

There has recently been a rapid expansion of interest in the econometrics of program evaluation, both within Australia and around the world. We provide a review of the key issues and recent developments in this field. A central feature of recent developments is the attempt to allow for program impacts that vary across individuals. This contrasts with earlier econometric approaches that implicitly assumed a homogeneous treatment effect. We survey alternative nonexperimental estimation strategies and note that they can be characterised by (1) an assumption about how untreated outcomes vary across individuals: this assumption in turn suggests how the counter-factual untreated outcomes of program participants should be estimated, and (2) the way in which the estimator aggregates or weights the program impacts of different individuals in the treatment group. We also emphasise the importance of good data.     

Core and value for a public-goods economy: An example

An example of a public-goods economy with a continuum of agents is presented in which the Shapley value does not lie in the core.     

Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany

Abstract. Against the background of the current discussion of statutory minimum wages in Germany, this paper analyzes the potential employment and fiscal effects of such a policy. Based on estimated labor demand elasticities obtained from a structural labor demand model, the empirical results imply that minimum wages in Germany will be associated with significant employment losses among marginal and low- and semi-skilled full-time workers. Even though minimum wages will lead to increased public revenues from income taxes and social security benefits, they will result in a significant fiscal burden, due to increased unemployment benefits and decreased revenues from corporate taxes.     

Testing for liquidity constraints among households: An international analysis

A testable implication for optimizing households minimizing a dynamic loss function but encountering borrowing constraints is forwarded. It is argued that in an error correction model of consumers' expenditures, an asymmetric reaction by households to disequilibrium error reveals the presence of borrowing constraints in the market. A test of this implication for the 11 OECD countries shows that significant liquidity constraints are present for most countries. The proposed setup can be used to test the previously maintained assumption of symmetric reactions to disequilibrium errors in the ECM models.     

贸易信贷:小企业的有效融资方式

小企业发展已经成为各国促进经济增长的重要动力.但同时,小企业融资也成为世界各国政府面对的难题.